Cook Out Southern 500: Top NASCAR Betting Picks
NASCAR Cup Series: Cook Out Southern 500
Sunday, September 6, 2020 at 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Darlington in South Carolina
How Do Playoffs Work In NASCAR?
In NASCAR, postseason begins with 16 drivers and 10 races.
Before the final race, there are elimination or cut-off phases.
After every three races, the bottom four drivers are eliminated from playoff contention.
Right now, we are in the Round of 16 as all 16 drivers remain. Round of 16 races take place at Darlington, Richmond, and Bristol.
So, after the race at Bristol on September 19, the bottom four drivers will be sent home.
Likewise, four more will be eliminated in Charlotte on October 11 and four more at Martinsville on November 1.
In the final race, the top four drivers will be left and they will compete at Phoenix for the title — the winner of that one race will be the champion.
Darlington….Again?
For the first time in its history, Darlington Raceway will host three NASCAR Cup races in a single season.
I have heard the idea being floated around that this repetitiveness competitively supports the more heavily favored drivers.
The reasoning is supposed to be that they will have more to draw upon in order to prepare for and maximize their performance in this race.
I disagree because this advantage applies to every driver. In fact, I think that the less favored drivers have greater opportunity to identify and take both calculated chances and calculated risks in order to produce surprising results.
Race Info
Traditionally, this track is known as being tough to navigate. Hence, it is called „the track that’s too tough to tame.“
Due to its narrow features, passing becomes relatively difficult at this egg-shaped track.
It’s very plausible that a driver ends up catching the wall as a result of the track’s narrowness. When he does scrape the wall, he earns his „Darlington stripes.“
Moreover, the track is notoriously rough and causes notorious wear and damage to tires as the race progresses.
The Southern 500 is so-called because it lasts 367 laps, which means that, by the race’s conclusion, drivers will have accumulated 501 miles on the 1.366-mile track.
Stages 1 and 2 will each require 100 laps. The final stage, then, requires 167 laps.
Eliminating Candidates
One thing to note is that it is extremely difficult to win back-to-back at this track.
Greg Biffle is the last driver to accomplish this feat. He did it in 2005 and 2006.
Given this trend, I want to eliminate Denny Hamlin who is the last driver to win at Darlington.
There are a number of drivers who have zero wins and, at best, only a pair of top-five finishes at this track.
With other drivers getting a third chance in this year to win at Darlington, it seems ridiculous to expect a victory from a driver who doesn’t perform well at this track.
Drivers that we want to eliminate for this reason of track history include Joey Logano. In Darlington, Logano averages a finishing position outside the top 10.
Let’s also eliminate Chase Elliott, whose average finishing position at Darlington is worse than Logano’s, and Martin Truex Jr., who has zero top-five finishes here.
I also want to stay away from Kyle Busch who I would really have to like in order to bet on him because he has a considerable tendency to flop.
Also, he has finished outside the top 10 in three of NASCAR’s last four races overall.
Kevin Harvick is somebody who I ultimately want to eliminate. I don’t expect there to be any value in the regular season champ.
Also, he has the biggest cushion in terms of playoff points (+53). Therefore, he is the last driver that you’d expect urgency from in Sunday’s race.
My Favorite Driver
I want to invest in Brad Keselowski.
Keselowski has been consistent overall with three straight top-10 finishes.
He has won at Darlington before. That win came in 2018. Including that win, Keselowski has finished top-five in three of his last four tries at Darlington.
The Verdict
With everyone looking to back Harvick or Hamlin, Keselowski will fly under the radar.
Given his positive history both in recent races and in Darlington, he stands to reward us with a superb payout.
Best Bet: Keselowski To Win (Odds TBA)
NASCAR Cup Series: Cook Out Southern 500
Sunday, September 6, 2020 at 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Darlington in South Carolina
How Do Playoffs Work In NASCAR?
In NASCAR, postseason begins with 16 drivers and 10 races.
Before the final race, there are elimination or cut-off phases.
After every three races, the bottom four drivers are eliminated from playoff contention.
Right now, we are in the Round of 16 as all 16 drivers remain. Round of 16 races take place at Darlington, Richmond, and Bristol.
So, after the race at Bristol on September 19, the bottom four drivers will be sent home.
Likewise, four more will be eliminated in Charlotte on October 11 and four more at Martinsville on November 1.
In the final race, the top four drivers will be left and they will compete at Phoenix for the title — the winner of that one race will be the champion.
Darlington….Again?
For the first time in its history, Darlington Raceway will host three NASCAR Cup races in a single season.
I have heard the idea being floated around that this repetitiveness competitively supports the more heavily favored drivers.
The reasoning is supposed to be that they will have more to draw upon in order to prepare for and maximize their performance in this race.
I disagree because this advantage applies to every driver. In fact, I think that the less favored drivers have greater opportunity to identify and take both calculated chances and calculated risks in order to produce surprising results.
Race Info
Traditionally, this track is known as being tough to navigate. Hence, it is called „the track that’s too tough to tame.“
Due to its narrow features, passing becomes relatively difficult at this egg-shaped track.
It’s very plausible that a driver ends up catching the wall as a result of the track’s narrowness. When he does scrape the wall, he earns his „Darlington stripes.“
Moreover, the track is notoriously rough and causes notorious wear and damage to tires as the race progresses.
The Southern 500 is so-called because it lasts 367 laps, which means that, by the race’s conclusion, drivers will have accumulated 501 miles on the 1.366-mile track.
Stages 1 and 2 will each require 100 laps. The final stage, then, requires 167 laps.
Eliminating Candidates
One thing to note is that it is extremely difficult to win back-to-back at this track.
Greg Biffle is the last driver to accomplish this feat. He did it in 2005 and 2006.
Given this trend, I want to eliminate Denny Hamlin who is the last driver to win at Darlington.
There are a number of drivers who have zero wins and, at best, only a pair of top-five finishes at this track.
With other drivers getting a third chance in this year to win at Darlington, it seems ridiculous to expect a victory from a driver who doesn’t perform well at this track.
Drivers that we want to eliminate for this reason of track history include Joey Logano. In Darlington, Logano averages a finishing position outside the top 10.
Let’s also eliminate Chase Elliott, whose average finishing position at Darlington is worse than Logano’s, and Martin Truex Jr., who has zero top-five finishes here.
I also want to stay away from Kyle Busch who I would really have to like in order to bet on him because he has a considerable tendency to flop.
Also, he has finished outside the top 10 in three of NASCAR’s last four races overall.
Kevin Harvick is somebody who I ultimately want to eliminate. I don’t expect there to be any value in the regular season champ.
Also, he has the biggest cushion in terms of playoff points (+53). Therefore, he is the last driver that you’d expect urgency from in Sunday’s race.
My Favorite Driver
I want to invest in Brad Keselowski.
Keselowski has been consistent overall with three straight top-10 finishes.
He has won at Darlington before. That win came in 2018. Including that win, Keselowski has finished top-five in three of his last four tries at Darlington.
The Verdict
With everyone looking to back Harvick or Hamlin, Keselowski will fly under the radar.
Given his positive history both in recent races and in Darlington, he stands to reward us with a superb payout.
Best Bet: Keselowski To Win (Odds TBA)
