South Point 400: NASCAR Top Bets
NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400
Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Playoff Update
At Bristol Motor Speedway, the first round, the Round of 16, reached its conclusion.
Four drivers were eliminated: William Byron, Cole Custer, Matt DiBenedetto, and Ryan Blaney.
None of those are really all that surprising.
So the best drivers remain available and in contention.
The second round, the Round of 12, begins on Sunday with the South Point 400.
Race Info
Sunday’s South Point 400 is so called because, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.
This event consists in three Stages. Stage 1 requires 80 laps. Stage 2 takes 80 laps. Stage 3 and the race itself conclude at lap 267.
Track Info
Each lap requires 1.5 miles.
There is a good amount of banking throughout the track, which is important because banking helps drivers reach greater speed.
In the corners, there is 20 degrees of banking. On the frontstretch, the banking is nine degrees as it is on the backstretch.
This level of banking is especially unique in the front- and backstretch.
Kevin Harvick
One can’t make a NASCAR wager without mentioning Kevin Harvick, who is favored by oddsmakers to win this race.
Because of how well he’s been performing both this season and overall, we have to ask ourselves before every race whether he should be the main guy that we invest in.
If you want to throw a little money down on him to win, that may be a profitable strategy. But it may also, slowly, drain your bank account. Who’s to say that he keeps winning at the rate that he’s winning?
If other factors spoke in his favor, then, sure, put down extra money on him to win. But simply betting on him to win because he’s been winning a lot lately is blind and unreasonably optimistic.
So why don’t other factors speak for Harvick?
Primarily, his history at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway is unimpressive.
Among drivers at this track since 2017, Harvick ranks 15th in average finishing position.
Measured by driver career at this track, he ranks ninth in the category.
Starting Lineup
Provisional lineups for this race have been calculated.
Because NASCAR is currently utilizing a formula in order to determine each playoff driver’s starting position, we can make his calculation in advance.
Harvick is going to start in pole position.
However, I contend that starting lineup is a factor which you should not bother to look at for this track.
Drivers consistently prove that they don’t need to start in strong position in order to finish well at this race.
For example, in one of Harvick’s two career wins in Las Vegas, he started in 18th place.
My Guy
The same logic applies to my favorite driver for Sunday’s race, Martin Truex Jr.
When Truex Jr. last won this race — two tries ago in September of 2019 — he started even further behind than Harvick did, in 24th place.
In comparing him with Harvick, one sees especially in this track’s recent history how Truex Jr. has dominated Harvick in terms of average finishing position, driver rating, and top-five and top-10 finishes.
Since 2017, Truex Jr. has won twice at this track and has produced three additional top-four finishes.
Personally, he’s aso in a favorable position to bounce-back. After his last three races in which he finished outside the top 10, he finished third or stronger in his following race.
Other Drivers
Don’t other drivers have positive histories at this track?
Yes, but here’s why I don’t like them as much.
Brad Keselowski, for example, shows a considerably inferior driver rating to Truex Jr.’s.
Joey Logano won last year’s race, which I consider a bad thing because it’s very difficult to win even any race back-to-back.
He’s never won back-to-back in Las Vegas nor has he achieved this feat a single time this season. Even Harvick has only done it once this season.
The Verdict
Avoid Harvick because of his poor driver history in Las Vegas.
While we wanted to consider other possibilities, Truex Jr. emerges as the strongest one given his history at Las Vegas and his personal bounce-back spot.
The offered payout for a Truex Jr. victory is really nice.
Best Bet: Truex Jr. To Win (+550) at BetOnline
NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400
Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Playoff Update
At Bristol Motor Speedway, the first round, the Round of 16, reached its conclusion.
Four drivers were eliminated: William Byron, Cole Custer, Matt DiBenedetto, and Ryan Blaney.
None of those are really all that surprising.
So the best drivers remain available and in contention.
The second round, the Round of 12, begins on Sunday with the South Point 400.
Race Info
Sunday’s South Point 400 is so called because, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.
This event consists in three Stages. Stage 1 requires 80 laps. Stage 2 takes 80 laps. Stage 3 and the race itself conclude at lap 267.
Track Info
Each lap requires 1.5 miles.
There is a good amount of banking throughout the track, which is important because banking helps drivers reach greater speed.
In the corners, there is 20 degrees of banking. On the frontstretch, the banking is nine degrees as it is on the backstretch.
This level of banking is especially unique in the front- and backstretch.
Kevin Harvick
One can’t make a NASCAR wager without mentioning Kevin Harvick, who is favored by oddsmakers to win this race.
Because of how well he’s been performing both this season and overall, we have to ask ourselves before every race whether he should be the main guy that we invest in.
If you want to throw a little money down on him to win, that may be a profitable strategy. But it may also, slowly, drain your bank account. Who’s to say that he keeps winning at the rate that he’s winning?
If other factors spoke in his favor, then, sure, put down extra money on him to win. But simply betting on him to win because he’s been winning a lot lately is blind and unreasonably optimistic.
So why don’t other factors speak for Harvick?
Primarily, his history at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway is unimpressive.
Among drivers at this track since 2017, Harvick ranks 15th in average finishing position.
Measured by driver career at this track, he ranks ninth in the category.
Starting Lineup
Provisional lineups for this race have been calculated.
Because NASCAR is currently utilizing a formula in order to determine each playoff driver’s starting position, we can make his calculation in advance.
Harvick is going to start in pole position.
However, I contend that starting lineup is a factor which you should not bother to look at for this track.
Drivers consistently prove that they don’t need to start in strong position in order to finish well at this race.
For example, in one of Harvick’s two career wins in Las Vegas, he started in 18th place.
My Guy
The same logic applies to my favorite driver for Sunday’s race, Martin Truex Jr.
When Truex Jr. last won this race — two tries ago in September of 2019 — he started even further behind than Harvick did, in 24th place.
In comparing him with Harvick, one sees especially in this track’s recent history how Truex Jr. has dominated Harvick in terms of average finishing position, driver rating, and top-five and top-10 finishes.
Since 2017, Truex Jr. has won twice at this track and has produced three additional top-four finishes.
Personally, he’s aso in a favorable position to bounce-back. After his last three races in which he finished outside the top 10, he finished third or stronger in his following race.
Other Drivers
Don’t other drivers have positive histories at this track?
Yes, but here’s why I don’t like them as much.
Brad Keselowski, for example, shows a considerably inferior driver rating to Truex Jr.’s.
Joey Logano won last year’s race, which I consider a bad thing because it’s very difficult to win even any race back-to-back.
He’s never won back-to-back in Las Vegas nor has he achieved this feat a single time this season. Even Harvick has only done it once this season.
The Verdict
Avoid Harvick because of his poor driver history in Las Vegas.
While we wanted to consider other possibilities, Truex Jr. emerges as the strongest one given his history at Las Vegas and his personal bounce-back spot.
The offered payout for a Truex Jr. victory is really nice.
Best Bet: Truex Jr. To Win (+550) at BetOnline
