South Point 400 Preview and Best Bet
NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada
Playoff Update
The last race at Bristol brought the Round of 16 to its conclusion.
After that race, four drivers were eliminated from playoff contention: Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, and Michael McDowell.
While you can still back them, it seems silly to do so because they have less reason to be motivated. Plus, it must feel deflating to be eliminated from the playoffs.
So, for our betting, we will only consider the 12 drivers that remain in contention.
Like the Round of 16, the Round of 12 consists in three races. The same requirements for advancing into the next round exist: drivers must win one of the three races or advance on point total.
Race Info
For Sunday's event, drivers must complete a total of 267 laps.
As has nearly always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this event.
Stage.1 concludes upon completion of Lap 80. Stage 2 requires 87 more laps. Stage 3 finishes upon completion of the 267th lap.
An entry list is conventionally published for the upcoming race.
38 teams/drivers form a part of the published entry list. So, barring any unforeseen occurrences, we already know which drivers will compete in this race.
The starting lineup for the upcoming race gets published every Wednesday morning.
This is a rare track in which starting position has so little importance because of the width of the track. This track extends four-wide.
Therefore, you should place negligible importance on the starting lineup for your betting.
Track Info
The Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a tri-oval asphalt track that requires 1.5 miles per lap.
So, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accrued just over 400 miles.
This track enjoys a nice amount of banking which is progressive. The turns are banked, progressively, from 12 to 12 degrees.
Banking encourages speed because drivers use the higher banking to corral momentum for their vehicles.
With the progressive banking at this track, the idea for which was conceived in 2006, there is more side-by-side competition, which again underscores the lack of significance of starting position at this track.
Driver To Avoid
One driver I recommend avoid investing in is Denny Hamlin.
Before last year, which was an unusually fast year for him overall, he consistently struggled at this track, failing in five straight tries to finish higher than 10th.
In his career, he has never won at this track. His average finishing position here is 12.89, making it statistically one his absolute worst tracks to race on.
My Guy
One guy I like is Martin Truex Jr.
I value consistency because consistency equates to reliability and I want to invest in drivers who I can trust.
Truex Jr. is worth investing in for this race because he is consistently good at this track.
He finished top-eight in seven of his last eight tries at this track. He also finished top-six in six of those eight races. Moreover, he finished top-four in five of those eight attempts.
While his overall average finishing position at this track isn't exactly inspiring and makes it easier to under value him, this particular statistic reflects his early-career struggles here.
Career statistics are not worth looking at without qualification because, as in Truex Jr.'s case, they may cause one to overlook more recent history.
Clearly, Truex Jr. has figured things out at Las Vegas.
At Bovada, you have the opportunity to bet on Truex Jr. to finish ahead of a guy I don't like here, Denny Hamlin. For the above reasons, I recommend betting on Truex Jr. in his match-up against Hamlin.
Best Bet: Truex Jr. To Finish Ahead of Hamlin at -105 with Bovada
NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada
Playoff Update
The last race at Bristol brought the Round of 16 to its conclusion.
After that race, four drivers were eliminated from playoff contention: Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, and Michael McDowell.
While you can still back them, it seems silly to do so because they have less reason to be motivated. Plus, it must feel deflating to be eliminated from the playoffs.
So, for our betting, we will only consider the 12 drivers that remain in contention.
Like the Round of 16, the Round of 12 consists in three races. The same requirements for advancing into the next round exist: drivers must win one of the three races or advance on point total.
Race Info
For Sunday's event, drivers must complete a total of 267 laps.
As has nearly always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this event.
Stage.1 concludes upon completion of Lap 80. Stage 2 requires 87 more laps. Stage 3 finishes upon completion of the 267th lap.
An entry list is conventionally published for the upcoming race.
38 teams/drivers form a part of the published entry list. So, barring any unforeseen occurrences, we already know which drivers will compete in this race.
The starting lineup for the upcoming race gets published every Wednesday morning.
This is a rare track in which starting position has so little importance because of the width of the track. This track extends four-wide.
Therefore, you should place negligible importance on the starting lineup for your betting.
Track Info
The Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a tri-oval asphalt track that requires 1.5 miles per lap.
So, in completing 267 laps, drivers will have accrued just over 400 miles.
This track enjoys a nice amount of banking which is progressive. The turns are banked, progressively, from 12 to 12 degrees.
Banking encourages speed because drivers use the higher banking to corral momentum for their vehicles.
With the progressive banking at this track, the idea for which was conceived in 2006, there is more side-by-side competition, which again underscores the lack of significance of starting position at this track.
Driver To Avoid
One driver I recommend avoid investing in is Denny Hamlin.
Before last year, which was an unusually fast year for him overall, he consistently struggled at this track, failing in five straight tries to finish higher than 10th.
In his career, he has never won at this track. His average finishing position here is 12.89, making it statistically one his absolute worst tracks to race on.
My Guy
One guy I like is Martin Truex Jr.
I value consistency because consistency equates to reliability and I want to invest in drivers who I can trust.
Truex Jr. is worth investing in for this race because he is consistently good at this track.
He finished top-eight in seven of his last eight tries at this track. He also finished top-six in six of those eight races. Moreover, he finished top-four in five of those eight attempts.
While his overall average finishing position at this track isn't exactly inspiring and makes it easier to under value him, this particular statistic reflects his early-career struggles here.
Career statistics are not worth looking at without qualification because, as in Truex Jr.'s case, they may cause one to overlook more recent history.
Clearly, Truex Jr. has figured things out at Las Vegas.
At Bovada, you have the opportunity to bet on Truex Jr. to finish ahead of a guy I don't like here, Denny Hamlin. For the above reasons, I recommend betting on Truex Jr. in his match-up against Hamlin.
Best Bet: Truex Jr. To Finish Ahead of Hamlin at -105 with Bovada
