Thursday's Best NCAA Football Week 1 Parlay
South Florida Bulls vs. NC State Wolfpack
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
The Chances of South Florida's Rush Attack
Last year, South Florida showed that its rushing attack has a tremendous amount of work cut out for itself.
It took until the last game of the season -- a 58-46 scoring fest with UCF -- for an individual Bull running back to exceed 100 yards on the ground.
Instead of getting better, the Bull running group could manage to regress since Johnny Ford and Josh Berry -- perhaps wisely -- both decided to transfer.
This group is far from having a clear-cut starting back. Instead, it will depend on a committee of running backs, which entails relying on numerous sub-par athletes.
South Florida's dismal running back group is significant because NC State's achilles heel on defense is arguably stopping the run, especially thanks to the departure of top defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who is now with the Detroit Lions.
Last year, the Wolfpack run defense was repeatedly pulverized by strong rush attacks. Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Kentucky all exceeded 280 yards rushing against NC State.
There is no proper comparison, however, between those teams and South Florida. Whereas each of those teams ranked top-40 in rush yards per game, a South Florida team whose group of running backs was stronger last year than this year ranked 96th in the category.
South Florida Pass Attack vs. NC State Pass Defense
Bull quarterback Cade Fortin has hardly accumulated any chemistry with his teammates.
After transferring out of North Carolina, Fortin threw all of eight passes last year -- of which he completed four for 39 yards.
Plus, he receives minimal support from teammates. While it is a good thing for chemistry when all five starting offensive linemen from the previous season return, in USF's case it is not a good thing for quality.
Last season, the Bull pass protection unit ranked 103rd in sack percentage.
USF doesn't even have an advantage in terms of returning experience, anyways, because NC State brings back some mean pass rushers.
The Wolfpack pass-rushing group helped the team rank top 15 with 32 sacks.
Among others, look out for Penn State transfer Daniel Joseph, who accrued 6.5 sacks in last year's shortened season.
Also look out for less proven but hyped-up defensive end Savion Jackson. After gaining significant experience last season and generating tremendous buzz in offseason practices, he promises to make an immediate impact this season.
Similar to its running back group, USF's pass-catching personnel lacks a standout guy. Its top returning receiver mustered just over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Often lacking a coach who was dedicated to coaching the wide receivers could only hurt the Bulls.
NC State's linebacking corps is significant both for its run and pass defense. This unit forms the strength of the Wolfpack defense.
These linebackers are led by the All-ACC-caliber Payton Wilson, who is a strong blitzer, a sure tackler, and someone who reliably sheds blocks in order to pursue the opposing ball-carrier.
NC State Offense vs. South Florida Defense
NC State has the sort of offensive firepower that South Florida lacks.
For starters, there's Devin Leary, who threw eight touchdowns to two interceptions and completed 60 percent of his passes before an injury ended his season. He can accomplish productive outings with his downfield-throwing ability.
He has the chemistry with teammates that his counterpart on USF lacks. Plus, he has the clear-cut number one wide receiver that USF wishes it had.
I am speaking of Emeka Emezie, who is back for his fourth season after accruing a career-high 738 passing yards.
This group will thrive against a USF defense that mustered one half-sack more than Joseph achieved last year by himself for NC State.
Plus, the Bulls lost their two starting cornerbacks and had two safeties transfer.
Leary gets further support from the one-two punch of Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr., both of whom accrued over 600 rushing yards last year.
They deal with USF's thin linebacking group that reliably complements its lack of pass rush by failing to accrue much havoc.
Spread and Total
So far, you might have only gotten two things out of the above analysis: one, a detailed breakdown of each team's personnel groupings and two, an understanding of why NC State is qualitatively superior to South Florida.
To make clear why I favor betting on the Wolfpack to cover the spread, I need to reemphasize other things besides just quality because NC State's quality is already reflected in the large spread.
The keys are experience and match-up. Regarding experience, Fortin lacks the same chemistry with his wide receivers that Leary already enjoys. Plus, the USF secondary suffered significant turnover.
Moreover, in terms of match-up, South Florida lacks the weaponry with which to exploit NC State's defensive weakness.
So, while NC State passes all over the Bulls and supports its pass attack with a very able two-back punch, USF will fail to run clock to shorten the game and to keep up in the air.
As for the total, I like the "under" because I think USF's starters at linebacker can limit the NC State rush attack for some period of time, until the lack of depth manifests itself against two strong running backs.
USF's lack of offensive playmakers and NC State's difference-maker at linebacker encountering minimal Bull resistance will also contribute to a lower-scoring game.
With the high total, there is plenty of room for the Wolfpack to cover and the "under" to hit.
Best Bet: Parlay Wolfpack -18 at -110 & Under 59 at -105 at +273 odds with Bovada
South Florida Bulls vs. NC State Wolfpack
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
The Chances of South Florida's Rush Attack
Last year, South Florida showed that its rushing attack has a tremendous amount of work cut out for itself.
It took until the last game of the season -- a 58-46 scoring fest with UCF -- for an individual Bull running back to exceed 100 yards on the ground.
Instead of getting better, the Bull running group could manage to regress since Johnny Ford and Josh Berry -- perhaps wisely -- both decided to transfer.
This group is far from having a clear-cut starting back. Instead, it will depend on a committee of running backs, which entails relying on numerous sub-par athletes.
South Florida's dismal running back group is significant because NC State's achilles heel on defense is arguably stopping the run, especially thanks to the departure of top defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who is now with the Detroit Lions.
Last year, the Wolfpack run defense was repeatedly pulverized by strong rush attacks. Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Kentucky all exceeded 280 yards rushing against NC State.
There is no proper comparison, however, between those teams and South Florida. Whereas each of those teams ranked top-40 in rush yards per game, a South Florida team whose group of running backs was stronger last year than this year ranked 96th in the category.
South Florida Pass Attack vs. NC State Pass Defense
Bull quarterback Cade Fortin has hardly accumulated any chemistry with his teammates.
After transferring out of North Carolina, Fortin threw all of eight passes last year -- of which he completed four for 39 yards.
Plus, he receives minimal support from teammates. While it is a good thing for chemistry when all five starting offensive linemen from the previous season return, in USF's case it is not a good thing for quality.
Last season, the Bull pass protection unit ranked 103rd in sack percentage.
USF doesn't even have an advantage in terms of returning experience, anyways, because NC State brings back some mean pass rushers.
The Wolfpack pass-rushing group helped the team rank top 15 with 32 sacks.
Among others, look out for Penn State transfer Daniel Joseph, who accrued 6.5 sacks in last year's shortened season.
Also look out for less proven but hyped-up defensive end Savion Jackson. After gaining significant experience last season and generating tremendous buzz in offseason practices, he promises to make an immediate impact this season.
Similar to its running back group, USF's pass-catching personnel lacks a standout guy. Its top returning receiver mustered just over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Often lacking a coach who was dedicated to coaching the wide receivers could only hurt the Bulls.
NC State's linebacking corps is significant both for its run and pass defense. This unit forms the strength of the Wolfpack defense.
These linebackers are led by the All-ACC-caliber Payton Wilson, who is a strong blitzer, a sure tackler, and someone who reliably sheds blocks in order to pursue the opposing ball-carrier.
NC State Offense vs. South Florida Defense
NC State has the sort of offensive firepower that South Florida lacks.
For starters, there's Devin Leary, who threw eight touchdowns to two interceptions and completed 60 percent of his passes before an injury ended his season. He can accomplish productive outings with his downfield-throwing ability.
He has the chemistry with teammates that his counterpart on USF lacks. Plus, he has the clear-cut number one wide receiver that USF wishes it had.
I am speaking of Emeka Emezie, who is back for his fourth season after accruing a career-high 738 passing yards.
This group will thrive against a USF defense that mustered one half-sack more than Joseph achieved last year by himself for NC State.
Plus, the Bulls lost their two starting cornerbacks and had two safeties transfer.
Leary gets further support from the one-two punch of Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr., both of whom accrued over 600 rushing yards last year.
They deal with USF's thin linebacking group that reliably complements its lack of pass rush by failing to accrue much havoc.
Spread and Total
So far, you might have only gotten two things out of the above analysis: one, a detailed breakdown of each team's personnel groupings and two, an understanding of why NC State is qualitatively superior to South Florida.
To make clear why I favor betting on the Wolfpack to cover the spread, I need to reemphasize other things besides just quality because NC State's quality is already reflected in the large spread.
The keys are experience and match-up. Regarding experience, Fortin lacks the same chemistry with his wide receivers that Leary already enjoys. Plus, the USF secondary suffered significant turnover.
Moreover, in terms of match-up, South Florida lacks the weaponry with which to exploit NC State's defensive weakness.
So, while NC State passes all over the Bulls and supports its pass attack with a very able two-back punch, USF will fail to run clock to shorten the game and to keep up in the air.
As for the total, I like the "under" because I think USF's starters at linebacker can limit the NC State rush attack for some period of time, until the lack of depth manifests itself against two strong running backs.
USF's lack of offensive playmakers and NC State's difference-maker at linebacker encountering minimal Bull resistance will also contribute to a lower-scoring game.
With the high total, there is plenty of room for the Wolfpack to cover and the "under" to hit.
Best Bet: Parlay Wolfpack -18 at -110 & Under 59 at -105 at +273 odds with Bovada
