South Florida and their Spreads...

[B.A.R.]

I know it was brought up last week with the late line movement and whatnot that something was fishy. Trust me, I love a good point shaving scheme to investigate. It is like Christmas morning to me finding any hint of that to use to my advantage. With that being said...leaving out the game against sisters of the poor...




San Jose State (won 42-22)

Open 20 moved at some point to 22 and closed 20.5...

Illinois (won 47-23)

Open 14.5 moved to 18 and closed at 16.5...

Temple (won 43-7)

Open 18 moved to 17.5 then 20.5 and closed at 18...

East Carolina (won 61-31)

Open 26 moved to 23 then 21.5 and closed at 22.5...

Cincy (won 33-3)

Open 24.5 moved to 23.5 and closed 24...

Tulane (won 34-28)

Open 11.5 moved to 12.5 then to 11 and closed 10...




I'll be 100% honest...a point shave is only gonna happen here and there. While there could have been something funky in this last game (look for specific plays) there really is nothing to see here...

 

[TahoeLegend]

S Florida just broke the record this past week for most consecutive games of scoring 30 points. I think it was the 24th straight game. Most in the modern era which I think dates back to WW I.

 

[RetroVK]

I think the key are the two clearly bad lines (Well clear to me - and I originate pretty well with market moving towards my number at a very high percentage) which moved the wrong way .. SJSU and Tulane. I would also go back a few years with respect to some of these teams. Even in the Grothe era. I have the general feeling with a lot of the florida based teams. I think there is something there. And when I notice it, I generally notice it when it moves against me. So there is certainly the possibility of bias .. meaning it moves against me because I was on the wrong side. But there is generally something about the game as it plays out that looks shady to me too. All circumstantial of course .. but I will find a way to bail on what I consider ridiculous line moves in these situations going forward, somehow.

 

[ksimpsc]

Makes a good point because day of game multiple people commented about the line moving the wrong way and about half the board had already locked in the -11 because of their numbers.

 

[RetroVK]

There are not many games where I am extremely confident of something shady. Here is one from 2010 that I am almost positive was fixed:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=303020041

This game moved way the wrong way before the game started. I remember D$, BB, me and some others not understanding the line move at all. At halftime, the posted number is wrong as well and moves the wrong direction. I remember texting buckeyeburritos at that time, letting him know we lost our bet, which of course we did. That game was fixed. I would lay at least -500 on that being the case.

 

[B.A.R.]

What were the lines on that game Kyle?

And yes, I remember the game. The legend of Geno. The fumble game.

 

[B.A.R.]

All I see is a 4.5

That really makes no sense for a fixed game.

WVU had multiple opportunities to win this game by 3 and still cover any potential bet against.

It was an odd game, no doubt and obviously it was a Friday game so it was out there for all us degens to see...

 

[RetroVK]

He went beyond fumbling. Sliding a yard and a half short of a first down with no one in his time zone on third down.

 

[RetroVK]

I laid a lot more than whatever the line was, I can tell you that much. I am at a hotel in Cali and not with my personal records. I could look for it here in october 2010 to see what I played it at, if it wasn't lost in the crash.

 

[B.A.R.]

He went beyond fumbling. Sliding a yard and a half short of a first down with no one in his time zone on third down.

I know. It was shady as can be.

Multiple chances to win the game by 3 points.

Now, it could have been a case of some dude on campus gave him a bunch of money to make something happen with little regard to winning a game as well but it would definitely be small-time compared to other shaves...

It takes more than one person for a football game, generally, if it is something bigger. On a small scale, I can see it though.

 

[B.A.R.]

I believe ya man. I remember it well.

It is a sloppy ass shave is what I am saying. Especially if you laid much more they had much more to play with to get the win for the shave and to get the win for the team.

For instance, if it was 7.5 or more...then OT was a freeroll for him...

 

[RetroVK]

I don't care enough to debate it. I have no idea what the exact shave might have been. But I have very little doubt that this performance coupled with a mistake line that moved the wrong way from the mistake, was in fact fixed.

You won't convince me otherwise. Less sure Scooter shaved and he admitted it.

 

[RetroVK]

Uconn did win out from that point to finish 8-4 before losing their bowl and finished that year undefeated at home i think. Arguments could be made that the original line was not as far off as we all thought at the time. But I know what I saw. And after watching the first half, not sure how the books came out with their second half line and not sure how that moved in favor of a uconn success story.

If I cannot believe that was a fix, then I cannot believe in the existence of such things. I will ask St Peter before he tells me to go downstairs on judgment day.

 

[B.A.R.]

Speaking of Tulane...

I am trying to remember the Matt Forte games...

 

[RetroVK]

Quite an nfl career.


Remember dwight dasher? .....

 

[B.A.R.]

Quite an nfl career.


Remember dwight dasher? .....

Excellent NFL career, couple of shady games while in college.

Dasher, yup, lmao. I was just going down memory lane on a bunch of these guys.

 

[B.A.R.]

Different sport...and take away Toledo on both hoops and football...

But my all-time favorite will always be the 2005 Memphis Tigers. What a group of guys!

 

[RetroVK]

FT's

 

[RetroVK]

Just hard for me to believe anything would be shady with Calipari at the helm. Had to be on the up and up

 

[B.A.R.]

Just hard for me to believe anything would be shady with Calipari at the helm. Had to be on the up and up

I mean, it happened in multiple games...and you could watch the line movements and see it several times...

But this was the crown jewel...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=260530235

Opened like 14 or 14.5 and went all the way down to 9 I believe...

The best part is that missed 'layup' by Darius was a down the lane with no one there and he did a 360 for absolutely no reason and bricked it off the glass.

UTEP couldn't score that game...those extra FT's on 'silly' fouls helped a lot.

 

[RetroVK]

Maybe that is where UTEP got the idea ....