South Carolina vs. UAB Gasparilla Bowl and Betting Predictions
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. UAB Blazers
Saturday, December 26, 2020 at noon ET (ABC) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida
South Carolina’s Losing Streak
At 2-8, South Carolina’s season is an irredeemable disaster.
Currently, the Gamecocks have lost five in a row with four of those five losses coming by at least 17 points.
Their last game was against another losing team, Kentucky, which defeated the Gamecocks 41-18.
So the Gamecocks enter Saturday’s bowl game with zero momentum.
Motivation
I can’t imagine that South Carolina players are very motivated to be at 3-8.
There is nothing for the Gamecocks to gain from this game, playing against a low-profile UAB team.
Conversely, small programs typically relish the opportunity to play against SEC or otherwise Power 5 schools. So UAB will get up for this game.
Gamecock Players Missing
Especially since their head coach was fired, the Gamecocks have seen several players — many of whom were key members of the team — opt out.
On offense, leading wide receiver Shi Smith has opted out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Smith had 27 more receptions and 208 more receiving yards than the next-most productive South Carolina pass-catcher.
He was a big-time playmaker with his speed. So his absence creates a gap in the offense’s ability to move the ball downfield with any ease.
A starting offensive guard, Sadarius Hutcherson, also declared for the Draft.
Many of the team’s losses on defense are less recent.
Two of its top cornerbacks, starters Jayce Horn and Israel Mukuamu opted out. Safety RJ Roderick, also a starter, joined them.
More recently, linebacker and leading tackler Ernest Jones opted out as well.
Luke Doty
South Carolina will start freshman Luke Doty at quarterback.
Because this game is meaningless for the Gamecocks, they can allow Doty to accrue more reps and more experience.
So far, Doty is struggling. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
It’s hard to imagine Doty improving upon his numbers against a Blazer secondary that ranks 12th nationally in opposing passer rating.
You might object that UAB plays in a small conference and thus might benefit from facing lower-quality opposition.
But the Blazers have also faced Power 5 programs. On September 10, they played Miami.
In that game, Hurricane quarterback D’Eriq King had what still counts as his second-worst performance of the season in terms of passer rating.
One might also object that, while Doty will certainly miss someone who was his most able and one of his most favorite targets when healthy in Shi Smith, he can still be supported by a strong ground game.
Kevin Harris, indeed, is a productive running back. The problem is that his productivity is irrelevant in the big picture.
Even when he performs well — against Kentucky, for example, he eclipsed 200 rushing yards — the offense under Doty’s leadership is still so poor. So the Gamecocks still only mustered 18 points in their blowout loss against Kentucky.
UAB Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Earlier in the season, the Gamecocks lost some key starters on their defensive line.
But now they have become thinner on this unit and are struggling even more mightily.
In their past three games, their opponents are averaging just over 240 rushing yards.
UAB can take advantage of the Gamecocks’ awful run defense with at least three different running backs who average four or more YPC.
Most noteworthy is Spencer Brown, who ran for 74 yards on 4.6 YPC and a touchdown in the Miami game.
Brown has a nose for the end zone — he has 10 rushing touchdowns so far.
He is tough and strong near the end zone and in short yardage situations — he actually used to be a linebacker.
But his speed has always been unusually good and, over the years, he lost weight in order to gain greater explosiveness.
With a more competent decision-maker at quarterback in Tyler Johnston, who hasn’t thrown an interception since the season opener and was decent against Miami, the Blazers can exploit South Carolina’s backup-filled secondary.
As such, UAB will mount a balanced offensive attack.
The Verdict
UAB has the motivational edge and also the personnel to keep South Carolina horribly one-dimensional on offense.
On offense, the Blazers can find a lot of success running the ball, but also have an easier time against the Gamecock secondary.
Best Bet: Blazers -4.5 at -110 with Bovada
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. UAB Blazers
Saturday, December 26, 2020 at noon ET (ABC) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida
South Carolina’s Losing Streak
At 2-8, South Carolina’s season is an irredeemable disaster.
Currently, the Gamecocks have lost five in a row with four of those five losses coming by at least 17 points.
Their last game was against another losing team, Kentucky, which defeated the Gamecocks 41-18.
So the Gamecocks enter Saturday’s bowl game with zero momentum.
Motivation
I can’t imagine that South Carolina players are very motivated to be at 3-8.
There is nothing for the Gamecocks to gain from this game, playing against a low-profile UAB team.
Conversely, small programs typically relish the opportunity to play against SEC or otherwise Power 5 schools. So UAB will get up for this game.
Gamecock Players Missing
Especially since their head coach was fired, the Gamecocks have seen several players — many of whom were key members of the team — opt out.
On offense, leading wide receiver Shi Smith has opted out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Smith had 27 more receptions and 208 more receiving yards than the next-most productive South Carolina pass-catcher.
He was a big-time playmaker with his speed. So his absence creates a gap in the offense’s ability to move the ball downfield with any ease.
A starting offensive guard, Sadarius Hutcherson, also declared for the Draft.
Many of the team’s losses on defense are less recent.
Two of its top cornerbacks, starters Jayce Horn and Israel Mukuamu opted out. Safety RJ Roderick, also a starter, joined them.
More recently, linebacker and leading tackler Ernest Jones opted out as well.
Luke Doty
South Carolina will start freshman Luke Doty at quarterback.
Because this game is meaningless for the Gamecocks, they can allow Doty to accrue more reps and more experience.
So far, Doty is struggling. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
It’s hard to imagine Doty improving upon his numbers against a Blazer secondary that ranks 12th nationally in opposing passer rating.
You might object that UAB plays in a small conference and thus might benefit from facing lower-quality opposition.
But the Blazers have also faced Power 5 programs. On September 10, they played Miami.
In that game, Hurricane quarterback D’Eriq King had what still counts as his second-worst performance of the season in terms of passer rating.
One might also object that, while Doty will certainly miss someone who was his most able and one of his most favorite targets when healthy in Shi Smith, he can still be supported by a strong ground game.
Kevin Harris, indeed, is a productive running back. The problem is that his productivity is irrelevant in the big picture.
Even when he performs well — against Kentucky, for example, he eclipsed 200 rushing yards — the offense under Doty’s leadership is still so poor. So the Gamecocks still only mustered 18 points in their blowout loss against Kentucky.
UAB Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Earlier in the season, the Gamecocks lost some key starters on their defensive line.
But now they have become thinner on this unit and are struggling even more mightily.
In their past three games, their opponents are averaging just over 240 rushing yards.
UAB can take advantage of the Gamecocks’ awful run defense with at least three different running backs who average four or more YPC.
Most noteworthy is Spencer Brown, who ran for 74 yards on 4.6 YPC and a touchdown in the Miami game.
Brown has a nose for the end zone — he has 10 rushing touchdowns so far.
He is tough and strong near the end zone and in short yardage situations — he actually used to be a linebacker.
But his speed has always been unusually good and, over the years, he lost weight in order to gain greater explosiveness.
With a more competent decision-maker at quarterback in Tyler Johnston, who hasn’t thrown an interception since the season opener and was decent against Miami, the Blazers can exploit South Carolina’s backup-filled secondary.
As such, UAB will mount a balanced offensive attack.
The Verdict
UAB has the motivational edge and also the personnel to keep South Carolina horribly one-dimensional on offense.
On offense, the Blazers can find a lot of success running the ball, but also have an easier time against the Gamecock secondary.
Best Bet: Blazers -4.5 at -110 with Bovada
