South Carolina vs. Florida NCAAF Week 5 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 3, 2020 at noon ET at Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Worried About Florida’s Defense?
Entering the SEC opener, I was high on Florida defensively and my expectation remains the same even though Florida allowed 35 points in its season opener.
There are a lot of reasons why you should excuse the Gators’ opening effort.
They barely practiced tackling and so they missed a lot of tackles, which allowed would-be short gains for Ole Miss to turn into long ones. They barely practiced in general. So the secondary also busted a lot of coverages.
Speaking of the secondary, starting safety Brad Stewart missed the game and another starting safety (Shawn Davis) was ejected early in the game for targeting.
Without having experienced safeties available to shade coverage, Florida’s cornerbacks were disadvantaged. They were also hurt by the lack of pass rush.
This lack isn’t expressive of Florida’s capability in attacking the quarterback. Multiple starters along the defensive line missed this game and made the defensive line quite thin, which is a problem that, along with Florida’s issue at the safety position, will be resolved in time for its second game.
UF’s lack of pass rush and blown coverages were also common themes because the defense wasn’t getting set or aligned properly before the snap. Ole Miss’s fast tempo contributed to this additional problem.
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham couldn’t dial up his famous blitzes partly because of his defense’s issues with pre-snap alignment and partly because his secondary was getting burned as a consequence largely of missing competent safety play.
South Carolina Offensive line vs. Florida Defensive Line
After his team’s opening loss to Tennessee, Gamecock head coach Will Muschamp announced that the left and right tackle positions are still up for grabs.
While chemistry concerns generated by playing positional musical chairs are worth considering, the main concern is player quality at the tackle position.
At the edge, Florida has a good match-up. While it’s relatively thin at defensive tackle (which the return of Kyree Campbell will help), it is arguably strongest at the end position.
So with Jeremiah Moon returning, the Gators will have stronger edge rushing. He had three sacks last year in a more limited role. His strongest asset is rushing the passer, which he uses his foot speed and initial burst off the snap to do very well.
Former five-star transfer from Georgia, Brenton Cox, also had absolutely one of Gator players’ best debuts last week. For example, he batted a pass down that led to an interception.
South Carolina’s run game remains anemic. If you take away one ‚big“ (13-yard) run from each of South Carolina’s top two running backs against Tennessee, then they only averaged 3.5 YPC.
SC’s inability to flip the field in the second half was considerably magnified by its offensive one-dimensionality.
Besides relying too heavily on the pass game, wide receiver is a position of thinness and weakness for this team.
Shi Smith is the Gamecocks’ only notable receiver. But he is going to have his hands full with Kaiir Elam, who allowed a 43.5 completion percentage and 18.5 passer rating when targeted last year.
Florida Pass Attack vs. Gamecock Secondary
Kyle Trask, the SEC’s leading returning quarterback. hardly missed a beat with his crew of returning pass-catchers. He completed 30 of 42 pass attempts for 416 yards and six touchdowns against Ole Miss.
Tight end Kyle Pitts, who caught four touchdowns last week, was Trask’s favorite target, but not his only reliable target.
I know that I backed the Gamecock secondary last week. That was largely a reflection of my dislike for Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano.
Guarantano was able to put up very good numbers last week against South Carolina’s secondary despite being characteristically as lackluster as he is downfield and despite missing crucial wide receivers from last year.
The fact is that the Gamecock pass defense — which ranked 10th in the SEC last year — is no match for any decent pass attack.
Its issues against Tennessee came from individual defensive backs getting beat.
Israel Mukuamu, who has fans clinging to him because he played one great game last year (against Georgia and its poor receiving crew), was one source of weakness.
In turn, Florida has a lot of higher-level pass-catchers to test this secondary with and a quarterback in Trask who won’t miss the open throws that Guarantano missed.
The Verdict
While the spread is high, Florida has the ability to put up a lot of points in a hurry.
Florida’s run game, behind a way more experienced and improved offensive line, could help against a Gamecock front seven that allowed over six YPC against Tennessee’s run game on first down.
Indeed, I am not sure if South Carolina’s run defense struggled due to absences at linebacker or because Tennessee has the strong run game that people expected of it.
But frankly I don’t care. Florida loves to pass the ball and, in attempting over 40 passes, its pass attack will highlight multiple pass-catchers against South Carolina’s continually poor secondary.
Defensively, the Gators will be angry after last week. They’ll benefit from facing an offense that they’ll have watched film on.
Expect stronger defense on all levels from Florida.
Its pass rush will build off of its four-sack opening effort with stronger personnel, without having to worry about containing a scrambling quarterback, without dealing with as much tempo, and with sounder secondary play.
Elam and Florida’s rejuvenated safety group will lock down the only threat South Carolina poses downfield. With the Gamecocks also struggling to run, minimal offense will come from them.
Best Bet: Gators -18.5 (-105) with Heritage
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 3, 2020 at noon ET at Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Worried About Florida’s Defense?
Entering the SEC opener, I was high on Florida defensively and my expectation remains the same even though Florida allowed 35 points in its season opener.
There are a lot of reasons why you should excuse the Gators’ opening effort.
They barely practiced tackling and so they missed a lot of tackles, which allowed would-be short gains for Ole Miss to turn into long ones. They barely practiced in general. So the secondary also busted a lot of coverages.
Speaking of the secondary, starting safety Brad Stewart missed the game and another starting safety (Shawn Davis) was ejected early in the game for targeting.
Without having experienced safeties available to shade coverage, Florida’s cornerbacks were disadvantaged. They were also hurt by the lack of pass rush.
This lack isn’t expressive of Florida’s capability in attacking the quarterback. Multiple starters along the defensive line missed this game and made the defensive line quite thin, which is a problem that, along with Florida’s issue at the safety position, will be resolved in time for its second game.
UF’s lack of pass rush and blown coverages were also common themes because the defense wasn’t getting set or aligned properly before the snap. Ole Miss’s fast tempo contributed to this additional problem.
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham couldn’t dial up his famous blitzes partly because of his defense’s issues with pre-snap alignment and partly because his secondary was getting burned as a consequence largely of missing competent safety play.
South Carolina Offensive line vs. Florida Defensive Line
After his team’s opening loss to Tennessee, Gamecock head coach Will Muschamp announced that the left and right tackle positions are still up for grabs.
While chemistry concerns generated by playing positional musical chairs are worth considering, the main concern is player quality at the tackle position.
At the edge, Florida has a good match-up. While it’s relatively thin at defensive tackle (which the return of Kyree Campbell will help), it is arguably strongest at the end position.
So with Jeremiah Moon returning, the Gators will have stronger edge rushing. He had three sacks last year in a more limited role. His strongest asset is rushing the passer, which he uses his foot speed and initial burst off the snap to do very well.
Former five-star transfer from Georgia, Brenton Cox, also had absolutely one of Gator players’ best debuts last week. For example, he batted a pass down that led to an interception.
South Carolina’s run game remains anemic. If you take away one ‚big“ (13-yard) run from each of South Carolina’s top two running backs against Tennessee, then they only averaged 3.5 YPC.
SC’s inability to flip the field in the second half was considerably magnified by its offensive one-dimensionality.
Besides relying too heavily on the pass game, wide receiver is a position of thinness and weakness for this team.
Shi Smith is the Gamecocks’ only notable receiver. But he is going to have his hands full with Kaiir Elam, who allowed a 43.5 completion percentage and 18.5 passer rating when targeted last year.
Florida Pass Attack vs. Gamecock Secondary
Kyle Trask, the SEC’s leading returning quarterback. hardly missed a beat with his crew of returning pass-catchers. He completed 30 of 42 pass attempts for 416 yards and six touchdowns against Ole Miss.
Tight end Kyle Pitts, who caught four touchdowns last week, was Trask’s favorite target, but not his only reliable target.
I know that I backed the Gamecock secondary last week. That was largely a reflection of my dislike for Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano.
Guarantano was able to put up very good numbers last week against South Carolina’s secondary despite being characteristically as lackluster as he is downfield and despite missing crucial wide receivers from last year.
The fact is that the Gamecock pass defense — which ranked 10th in the SEC last year — is no match for any decent pass attack.
Its issues against Tennessee came from individual defensive backs getting beat.
Israel Mukuamu, who has fans clinging to him because he played one great game last year (against Georgia and its poor receiving crew), was one source of weakness.
In turn, Florida has a lot of higher-level pass-catchers to test this secondary with and a quarterback in Trask who won’t miss the open throws that Guarantano missed.
The Verdict
While the spread is high, Florida has the ability to put up a lot of points in a hurry.
Florida’s run game, behind a way more experienced and improved offensive line, could help against a Gamecock front seven that allowed over six YPC against Tennessee’s run game on first down.
Indeed, I am not sure if South Carolina’s run defense struggled due to absences at linebacker or because Tennessee has the strong run game that people expected of it.
But frankly I don’t care. Florida loves to pass the ball and, in attempting over 40 passes, its pass attack will highlight multiple pass-catchers against South Carolina’s continually poor secondary.
Defensively, the Gators will be angry after last week. They’ll benefit from facing an offense that they’ll have watched film on.
Expect stronger defense on all levels from Florida.
Its pass rush will build off of its four-sack opening effort with stronger personnel, without having to worry about containing a scrambling quarterback, without dealing with as much tempo, and with sounder secondary play.
Elam and Florida’s rejuvenated safety group will lock down the only threat South Carolina poses downfield. With the Gamecocks also struggling to run, minimal offense will come from them.
Best Bet: Gators -18.5 (-105) with Heritage
