Somethings I've learned from betting baseball last yr

[E.T.G.]

Everyone, feel free to chip in with stuff. Last yr was my 1st year actually betting baseball, it started great and ended worse than I ever imagined. Over the course of the season, I certainly learned a few things..I was bored so I started this early.

• Realize that the two best regular season records, the RSox and Indians, both 96-66, won 59.4% of their games. The worst team in baseball, the D-Rays, still won 40.7% of their games. I think it is important to run that through your head a few times.
• On paper the better team "should" win, in reality, they don't always win. This goes back to the records in my first bullet. I often noticed that I was always laying chalk because I felt teams "should" win but I rarely took that ML dog who "could win"
• Bullpens matter, bullpens matter, bullpens matter. Can't say this enough, for most teams/start pitchers, bullpens are 1/3 of the game. Backing a team like the D-Rays becomes a permanent migrain when they continue to falter in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Find a book with 5inning lines so you don't have the Reds shitting on you constantly.
• Limit your chalk plays to a number, say -150. You simply can't make up for chalk plays that lose at -180, it will eat you alive.
• Realize how long the season is. Teams play 162 games! Pace yourself
• Participate in the nighly discussions, everyone benefits

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Limit your chalk plays to a number, say -150. You simply can't make up for chalk plays that lose at -180, it will eat you alive.

This is the A#1 rule. I'll play run-lines, but never, ever a baseball money line over -150. Even -150 isn't too smart. Look at it this way. A daily blind bet on the Nats last year, a losing team, paid well more than either a daily blind bet on Cleveland or Boston. Especially grossly inflated Boston. And almost as much as those two teams paid combined. If you bet every day on the Yanks, or the Mets, or the Cards, you lost money. Tigers bets eked out a meager profit. Play the dogs and the totals.

 

[BRARSTAR]

I will have to say that limiting the chalk is the biggest rule but behind that, is if you can try to cut the juice down using -1 run lines and such.

Last year was my first year betting on baseball for a whole season and it ended up okay, not to great and not as bad as it could have.

Totals can also be very profitable if starting pitchers are taken into account ALONG with as you said the bullpens. Bullpens give up alot of runs and can send totals that you would have thought to be under easily over.

Thats all for now but this is great discussion lets keep it up.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

etg- Totally agree about bullpens, which is why I'm going to play a lot of 5 inning lines this season.

I would also tell people to watch as much baseball and read as many newspapers as you can. Any info that keeps you from placing money on what is a bad bet, is a bet earned. You can also find information that pushes you toward a side.

For example, I took Florida +190 on the final day of the season against New York because the team's comments and state of mind were extremely encouraging. It paid off, but if I didn't read or prepare then I would never taken the opportunity.

A team's current state of mind is important, sometimes much more than their ability under ideal conditions.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I learned RLs are a bitch.

I often don't think I took teams over around -125 too often, always lots of dogs.

Find some trends, everyone here started banking on Carmona during the day, I'd advise people find that similar trend with players on smaller market teams. Jorge De La Rosa had a similar trend. He was often awful at night and great during the day.

Don't be afraid to take a break for a few days, you are in for the long haul and it'll wear you down.

 

[scdoggy]

Good thoughts in here fellas. Bullpens are perhaps one of the more overlooked stats. Some others that we can't forget.

1. Fielding percentage. Teams with sure hands in the field are a quality bet, especially as a dog. Taking a team with good fielding percentage and decent pitchers (say Oakland, for example) against a team like FLA - more know for bigger named players and hitters or better yet a marquee team like the Yanks/Sox can big a great bet. Know your fielding percentages. A sure handed infield can be the difference between an error that costs you a couple hundred bucks, or a nail biter win...

2. Umpires. Certain guys are homers, certain guys give pitchers the corners, certain guys don't. Umpires are especially useful for totals bettors. Keep a journal on the guys behind the plate when you watch an entire game. Make notes and look for consistancies.

3. Wind. There are parks that this is really a critical stat, and you shouldn't ever play a total without an accurate report. Wrigley, Coors, Pac- Bell are examples. You'll pick up things about certain parks too. Balls at Chavez Ravine seem to find their way out of the park during the day, and seem to run out of steam just short of the wall at night. Just generalizations like this that you pick up and stick in your back pocket. I know I've got to be awful damn convinced to play a daytime Under at Dodgers stadium. Even if it looks really good, you can bet I'll be going back and looking at numbers to try and find a reason to stay off it....

4. Ground Ball/Fly Ball pitchers. Doesn't matter if the wind's blowing out if you've got a guy like Maddux on the hill that gets ground ball outs. This is the second thing I look at when the wind is a factor. Getting a guy that gives up flyballs is a generally a good play against in this spot.

5. Watch the games.... This sounds obvious, but no matter how hard you study, there's no substitute for watching the games. The Pirates may have lost 6-2, yet hit the ball hard all night, just right at people. If their hitters are in a groove, the ball will eventually find the holes.....

6. Pitcher vs. hitter stats. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. Some pitchers own teams. Look at Maddux record vs. Pittsburgh for example.

7. Don't buy the hype on certain high profile pitchers. Look inside the Numbers. Sanata is an ace, but even aces go through slumps. Recognize the slumps and stay away. Don't convince yourselft that "this is Johan against the Orioles, he can't lose - right?"

8. Righty lefty matchups. Learn em.

9. Respect streaks. Baseball produces some amazing streaks. Don't think that a team can't win/lose 15 straight games. Playing the "they're due" factor can break the bank. Find a team poised for a streak and ride it out. Yes, even the Yankees can lose four straight.

10. Always list starting pitchers if they're part of your rationale (they should be). Don't just take action on a game and find out that Bedard was scratched just before the game and suddenly you've got Bruce Chen laying -150 odds against the Blue Jays.....

Can't wait for opening day. Pitchers and catchers report to camp as early as Feb 13

 

[reNew Orleans]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/stat/bb-left-right.htm

more useful as the year goes on.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Good thoughts in here fellas. Bullpens are perhaps one of the more overlooked stats. Some others that we can't forget.

1. Fielding percentage. Teams with sure hands in the field are a quality bet, especially as a dog. Taking a team with good fielding percentage and decent pitchers (say Oakland, for example) against a team like FLA - more know for bigger named players and hitters or better yet a marquee team like the Yanks/Sox can big a great bet. Know your fielding percentages. A sure handed infield can be the difference between an error that costs you a couple hundred bucks, or a nail biter win...

2. Umpires. Certain guys are homers, certain guys give pitchers the corners, certain guys don't. Umpires are especially useful for totals bettors. Keep a journal on the guys behind the plate when you watch an entire game. Make notes and look for consistancies.

3. Wind. There are parks that this is really a critical stat, and you shouldn't ever play a total without an accurate report. Wrigley, Coors, Pac- Bell are examples. You'll pick up things about certain parks too. Balls at Chavez Ravine seem to find their way out of the park during the day, and seem to run out of steam just short of the wall at night. Just generalizations like this that you pick up and stick in your back pocket. I know I've got to be awful damn convinced to play a daytime Under at Dodgers stadium. Even if it looks really good, you can bet I'll be going back and looking at numbers to try and find a reason to stay off it....

4. Ground Ball/Fly Ball pitchers. Doesn't matter if the wind's blowing out if you've got a guy like Maddux on the hill that gets ground ball outs. This is the second thing I look at when the wind is a factor. Getting a guy that gives up flyballs is a generally a good play against in this spot.

5. Watch the games.... This sounds obvious, but no matter how hard you study, there's no substitute for watching the games. The Pirates may have lost 6-2, yet hit the ball hard all night, just right at people. If their hitters are in a groove, the ball will eventually find the holes.....

6. Pitcher vs. hitter stats. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. Some pitchers own teams. Look at Maddux record vs. Pittsburgh for example.

7. Don't buy the hype on certain high profile pitchers. Look inside the Numbers. Sanata is an ace, but even aces go through slumps. Recognize the slumps and stay away. Don't convince yourselft that "this is Johan against the Orioles, he can't lose - right?"

8. Righty lefty matchups. Learn em.

9. Respect streaks. Baseball produces some amazing streaks. Don't think that a team can't win/lose 15 straight games. Playing the "they're due" factor can break the bank. Find a team poised for a streak and ride it out. Yes, even the Yankees can lose four straight.

10. Always list starting pitchers if they're part of your rationale (they should be). Don't just take action on a game and find out that Bedard was scratched just before the game and suddenly you've got Bruce Chen laying -150 odds against the Blue Jays.....

Can't wait for opening day. Pitchers and catchers report to camp as early as Feb 13

Great post bro.:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

HOW TO MAKE YOUR OWN -1 LINE


This has value for American bettors because you likely won't be able to find a -1 line anywhere. If you hate run lines and don't like the big chalk, this helps to cheapen things up a bit.

Ex:


Indians ML = -150
Indians RL = +120

You bet:

$150 to Win $100 on the Indians ML
$100 to Win $120 on the Indians RL

Together you have $250 to win $220 which comes out to -113

How it works:

If the Indians win the game but only win by 1 run, you PUSH
If the Indians win the game by 2, you win both bets
If the Indians lose the game, you lose both bets which you would of lost either way on the ML/RL

 

[sirwinzalot]

Rules for MLB

#1 - Use a good MLB book, anyone that is betting MLB should be acquainted with Matchbook, best MLB book bar none.

#2 - Never lay more than -140

#3 - Bullpens

#4 - Try to play the game out in your head, try to figure out what things could happen. If this starting pitcher has been struggling to go long innings and you have a shit pen, you are in trouble.

#5 - look at historical matchups (batters and hitters) these do matter

#6- Look at line movement. Following smart money on a sharp underdog can be a good money maker.

#7- Hard to sweep in baseball, a lot of times a team that is in the last game of the series is a good bet to win.

#8- Going along with the #7 look at the whole series and figure out the matchups and figure out how the games might go.

#9- Certain players just do well against certain teams or in certain parks, or at day, or at night, or at home, or on the road. Example Wandy Rodriguez was money at home, and money fading on the road.

There are others, but those are off the top of my head.

 

[rolub]

Good thoughts in here fellas. Bullpens are perhaps one of the more overlooked stats. Some others that we can't forget.

1. Fielding percentage. Teams with sure hands in the field are a quality bet, especially as a dog. Taking a team with good fielding percentage and decent pitchers (say Oakland, for example) against a team like FLA - more know for bigger named players and hitters or better yet a marquee team like the Yanks/Sox can big a great bet. Know your fielding percentages. A sure handed infield can be the difference between an error that costs you a couple hundred bucks, or a nail biter win...

5. Watch the games.... This sounds obvious, but no matter how hard you study, there's no substitute for watching the games. The Pirates may have lost 6-2, yet hit the ball hard all night, just right at people. If their hitters are in a groove, the ball will eventually find the holes.....

These two pretty much contradict each other. Fielding percentage is close to worthless as a measure of how a team prevents hits... it only tells you how well they prevent errors. A good fielding team does more than prevent errors... hell, that's a minimum requirement of a defensive position player.

:cheers:

 

[scdoggy]

They aren't contradictory.

Fielding percentage is a big one to look at because its frustrating to give teams extra outs. Screw ups in the field are one of the most frustrating ways to lose a game. You can't prevent it, but you certainly should look at a team's defensive abilities when capping a game.

The second point just used the Pirates scenario as an example. Throw any example in there you like. The jist is that you pick up nauances of how a team is playing by watching a game. If you hit the ball hard all night, but just miss the holes and hit line drives right to outfileders, 1st/3rd baseman - the box score may show only two runs scored, but if you watched the game you'd know that the team was in a groove offensively.

The second point was independent of the first. To sum it up - Watch the games every night, so you can pick up the subtleties of how a team plays, and don't forget to cap fielding percentage.

Hopefully this clears things up:tiphat:

 

[rolub]

Fielding percentage is a big one to look at because its frustrating to give teams extra outs. Screw ups in the field are one of the most frustrating ways to lose a game. You can't prevent it, but you certainly should look at a team's defensive abilities when capping a game.

My main point is fielding percentage only considers errors. They are plenty of weakly hit balls that poor fielders do not get to, yet are not credited for an error. In terms of fielding percentage, they are neutral, when in terms of base-runners and runs scored, they are negative.

 

[E.T.G.]

I know from watching various games, the Marlins were terrible in the field, if they led in errors, I am not surprised and the Pirates run the bases terribly

 

[sirwinzalot]

Good point, baserunning is a key most people overlook. I have seen so much shitty baserunning in baseball it is a travesty. I always like to factor in a team that can run vs.say a knuckleballer like Wakefield. Just an example. So many things to look at in baseball, truly one of the most fun sports to handicap in my opinion.

 

[Terpman92]

great thread! Never,ever,ever bet those -200,-270 sucker bets. I always notice alot of comments regarding these as free money etc. When I see that much chalk, I generally bet a small amount on the dog. Infact, I am going to come up with some formula like-190 and above wager on the dog for 1/4 unit for example and see how it turns out. These wagers will be seperate from my daily picks. Anyway, looking forward to the season.

 

[rolub]

great thread! Never,ever,ever bet those -200,-270 sucker bets. I always notice alot of comments regarding these as free money etc. When I see that much chalk, I generally bet a small amount on the dog. Infact, I am going to come up with some formula like-190 and above wager on the dog for 1/4 unit for example and see how it turns out. These wagers will be seperate from my daily picks. Anyway, looking forward to the season.

A friend of mine getting his doctorate in ECO at WVU has done some research on a +200 theory in baseball. using wagerline, he's gone through 2004 through 2007 regular seasons and using closing lines. there's merit in betting each +200 for the year... there's also more interesting trends that have developed that, well, I can't talk about.

 

[horses]

Limit your chalk plays to a number, say -150. You simply can't make up for chalk plays that lose at -180, it will eat you alive.

Sorry ETG, but I simply think this is wrong; no doubt, blindly betting large chalk will send you to the poor house in baseball. However, if I think a team has a 70+ percent chance of winning (-250 ML) and it's priced at say -170...no way I will pass. I consider 'absolute rules' to be a crutch in sports gambling.

Great thread.

 

[E.T.G.]

Limit your chalk plays to a number, say -150. You simply can't make up for chalk plays that lose at -180, it will eat you alive.

Sorry ETG, but I simply think this is wrong; no doubt, blindly betting large chalk will send you to the poor house in baseball. However, if I think a team has a 70+ percent chance of winning (-250 ML) and it's priced at say -170...no way I will pass. I consider 'absolute rules' to be a crutch in sports gambling.

Great thread.

Horses, your statement is valid..

I set that there for myself as a general rule of thumb because I got myself in trouble with chalk last yr. I was more or less getting at the fact that you can't be laying -175 every night and expecting to come out on top unless you know the results of the game before they happen. I know this yr, I wil exceed that -150 mark, probably a lot but I threw that out there as more of word of caution. Now with the situation you bring up, there is .80 worth of value (-250 to -170), that is a little different story in my mind. The fact remains that when laying the large chalk, one must be pretty picky about it and be pretty sure of the bet (as you said, feel it has 70%+ chance). Hope to see you around the baseball forum though and good thoughts.

:cheers:

 

[horses]

Completely concur with that post, ETG.

We'll see if I'm around or not, because I am kind of curious myself. Handicapping is a prettly large effort for me and if I decide to work a sport, I do not dabble, I immerse myself.

 

[posey55]

1. I agree with avoiding big chalk. I limit my plays to -120, and generally only play dogs.

2. Look for breakout pitchers on bad teams. Finding good pitchers before the rest of the world is in love with them gives you a lot better value.

3. Never look at pitchers ERA's, it is kind of a joke of a stat. I used a simple system of comparing starting pitchers previous season FIP and playing the underdog if the dog had a better FIP the previous season, this was in 2006 and it went 77-62 while playing all underdogs that fit the system. I didn't bet on baseball last season, so I'm not sure if the success continued, but using Sabermetric stats can lead to success.

4. Don't use Batting Average if you're looking at team stats, too much luck involved. Checking team OPS, and getting more in-depth (OPS vs Lefties/Righties) can help find value as well.

5. Bet on the Mariners every game

:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

<TABLE class=tborder id=post716405 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_716405 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid">Good thoughts in here fellas. Bullpens are perhaps one of the more overlooked stats. Some others that we can't forget.

1. Fielding percentage. Teams with sure hands in the field are a quality bet, especially as a dog. Taking a team with good fielding percentage and decent pitchers (say Oakland, for example) against a team like FLA - more know for bigger named players and hitters or better yet a marquee team like the Yanks/Sox can big a great bet. Know your fielding percentages. A sure handed infield can be the difference between an error that costs you a couple hundred bucks, or a nail biter win...

2. Umpires. Certain guys are homers, certain guys give pitchers the corners, certain guys don't. Umpires are especially useful for totals bettors. Keep a journal on the guys behind the plate when you watch an entire game. Make notes and look for consistancies.

3. Wind. There are parks that this is really a critical stat, and you shouldn't ever play a total without an accurate report. Wrigley, Coors, Pac- Bell are examples. You'll pick up things about certain parks too. Balls at Chavez Ravine seem to find their way out of the park during the day, and seem to run out of steam just short of the wall at night. Just generalizations like this that you pick up and stick in your back pocket. I know I've got to be awful damn convinced to play a daytime Under at Dodgers stadium. Even if it looks really good, you can bet I'll be going back and looking at numbers to try and find a reason to stay off it....

4. Ground Ball/Fly Ball pitchers. Doesn't matter if the wind's blowing out if you've got a guy like Maddux on the hill that gets ground ball outs. This is the second thing I look at when the wind is a factor. Getting a guy that gives up flyballs is a generally a good play against in this spot.

5. Watch the games.... This sounds obvious, but no matter how hard you study, there's no substitute for watching the games. The Pirates may have lost 6-2, yet hit the ball hard all night, just right at people. If their hitters are in a groove, the ball will eventually find the holes.....

6. Pitcher vs. hitter stats. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. Some pitchers own teams. Look at Maddux record vs. Pittsburgh for example.

7. Don't buy the hype on certain high profile pitchers. Look inside the Numbers. Sanata is an ace, but even aces go through slumps. Recognize the slumps and stay away. Don't convince yourselft that "this is Johan against the Orioles, he can't lose - right?"

8. Righty lefty matchups. Learn em.

9. Respect streaks. Baseball produces some amazing streaks. Don't think that a team can't win/lose 15 straight games. Playing the "they're due" factor can break the bank. Find a team poised for a streak and ride it out. Yes, even the Yankees can lose four straight.

10. Always list starting pitchers if they're part of your rationale (they should be). Don't just take action on a game and find out that Bedard was scratched just before the game and suddenly you've got Bruce Chen laying -150 odds against the Blue Jays.....

Can't wait for opening day. Pitchers and catchers report to camp as early as Feb 13
<!-- / message --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 1px solid">

</TD><TD class=alt1 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 1px solid" align=right><!-- controls --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


wow. this was a great post.

only thing i disagree with is the lsiting of the pitchers. In my opinion you should only list the pitchers when you are on a favorite or major favorite. When on the dog .... you are often helped by a pitching change ... ie the favorite pitcher bedard is out and bruce chen is in. ... and you are more than likely not hurt as badly when your pitcher is changed. So i would list my pitchers on decent sized favorites and not list them on the dogs.

 

[Blue_Chip]

1. I agree with avoiding big chalk. I limit my plays to -120, and generally only play dogs.

2. Look for breakout pitchers on bad teams. Finding good pitchers before the rest of the world is in love with them gives you a lot better value.

3. Never look at pitchers ERA's, it is kind of a joke of a stat. I used a simple system of comparing starting pitchers previous season FIP and playing the underdog if the dog had a better FIP the previous season, this was in 2006 and it went 77-62 while playing all underdogs that fit the system. I didn't bet on baseball last season, so I'm not sure if the success continued, but using Sabermetric stats can lead to success.

4. Don't use Batting Average if you're looking at team stats, too much luck involved. Checking team OPS, and getting more in-depth (OPS vs Lefties/Righties) can help find value as well.

5. Bet on the Mariners every game

... Well, the only point that is useful above is #5... :tiphat:... looking forward to your M's insight this season.

 

[HUNT]

fade chico

 

[johnci]

Last year I learned the best way to bet bases is find out what side of a total Hile is on. Then follow.

 

[G-Man]

The trick is to bet winning record dogs every day they are dogs - i.e. Cleveland.

Carmona was giant money last year over and over again...didnt disappoint as a fav either!

 

[cogenman]

great thread man, with all these good mental notes, it needs to be stickied.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Good thread. I do know that you can't NOT blindly bet on -200 faves because they are laying 2-to-1. I never do it, but if a team has what you perceive to be a 76-to-80 percent chance of winning the game, then the true odds that you perceive are -350 to -400... then you SHOULD lay -200...

But I always bet the RL in those cases, haha...

 

[boredlife]

http://www.jimfeist.com/MLBStats/breakdown.aspx

I know. It's generated from Jim Heist. But it made me realize every team offensively should be capped via 4 profiles, (Home / Away / vs. LHP / vs. RHP).

Check out the records for the Jays vs. LHP, Yanks home vs. LHP, Brewers at home for ex.

Also, cap lineups by finding out who are the 3 or 4 main OPS producers for that lineup, it can change with LHP vs. RHP. Check lineups before the game to make sure they are playing. Watch for day game lineups, this is when managers sometimes rest their best OPS producers.