CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I had a thread very similar to this last year; mostly copying and pasting for the newbies...
Some background on the 2007 season and what it is we're trying to do here...
This will be my fourth season on the other side of the counter - though make no mistake, I'm still very much a player. I work offshore but don't have any of my own players or packages. I am paid a flat salary and no commission, so I could care less whether the players win or not. One of my main jobs in running my shop is to ensure the players don't hoodwink us - they don't lay 7 in a game that is moving to 8 all over the world at the same time - they at least lay us 7.5... I have other responsibilies as well... I make my own numbers in baseball, CFB, CBB and the Niffel - I bet the first three, but not the Niffel (you'll see a few spot plays I post on occasion), but I regress.
Betting on sports is not as difficult as you everyone makes it out to be. There is no such thing as a "trap". There are fixes, but unfortunately it's very difficult to find out about them - before or after the fact - unless large money gets bet on one side of a game and there's no two-way action. In almost every game, though, remember - there is a winner and a loser. Hit more than 53 percent of your games and you cannot lose laying -110 or less. It's pretty simple to say but much more difficult to do.
Still, "the public" or "wagerline" are about the two most meaningless words I see and/or hear on the forums or talking with friends who are not in the business. Where I work, there is post-up cash and credit cash coming in from all over the United States. We rarely shade a line because we're going to get bet on Notre Dame or Southern Cal or Tennessee or whoever every week, if you know what I mean. After the initial shade towards the super-faves, there's no need to add an additional adjustment on air; otherwise you've giving value to the dog.
Customers are getting smarter, as people are quick to check facts and stuff on the gold-mine that is the Internet. Everyone who bets a game these days and tries to take it seriously is always going to have good reasons to bet the side he likes. Increasingly these days, the money comes on the underdog. That never used to happen. Last year, it created some unreal value on favorites in the college football in Week 1. I see it happening in a few games again this year.
Some days I will have longer writeups than others. I will always try to justify the reason I bet the side I'm on. I had great success with the college football up through 2004 - but I lost in 2005 for the first time since the 90s before getting it back last fall, and then some.
Remember one thing in this business, and in life.
"Winning ain't no accident" - it was from a bookmaker down here who I respect as the BEST in the entire industry.
He's been taking big bets for years and booking for 35-plus years. That comment alone made me wake up and pay attention to my work: you're not going to win if you don't invest your time into it - not over the long haul, anyways.
Here's to a successful second season for all of us here at CTG. We're at 11 days for first kicks!!!
:cheers:
Some background on the 2007 season and what it is we're trying to do here...
This will be my fourth season on the other side of the counter - though make no mistake, I'm still very much a player. I work offshore but don't have any of my own players or packages. I am paid a flat salary and no commission, so I could care less whether the players win or not. One of my main jobs in running my shop is to ensure the players don't hoodwink us - they don't lay 7 in a game that is moving to 8 all over the world at the same time - they at least lay us 7.5... I have other responsibilies as well... I make my own numbers in baseball, CFB, CBB and the Niffel - I bet the first three, but not the Niffel (you'll see a few spot plays I post on occasion), but I regress.
Betting on sports is not as difficult as you everyone makes it out to be. There is no such thing as a "trap". There are fixes, but unfortunately it's very difficult to find out about them - before or after the fact - unless large money gets bet on one side of a game and there's no two-way action. In almost every game, though, remember - there is a winner and a loser. Hit more than 53 percent of your games and you cannot lose laying -110 or less. It's pretty simple to say but much more difficult to do.
Still, "the public" or "wagerline" are about the two most meaningless words I see and/or hear on the forums or talking with friends who are not in the business. Where I work, there is post-up cash and credit cash coming in from all over the United States. We rarely shade a line because we're going to get bet on Notre Dame or Southern Cal or Tennessee or whoever every week, if you know what I mean. After the initial shade towards the super-faves, there's no need to add an additional adjustment on air; otherwise you've giving value to the dog.
Customers are getting smarter, as people are quick to check facts and stuff on the gold-mine that is the Internet. Everyone who bets a game these days and tries to take it seriously is always going to have good reasons to bet the side he likes. Increasingly these days, the money comes on the underdog. That never used to happen. Last year, it created some unreal value on favorites in the college football in Week 1. I see it happening in a few games again this year.
Some days I will have longer writeups than others. I will always try to justify the reason I bet the side I'm on. I had great success with the college football up through 2004 - but I lost in 2005 for the first time since the 90s before getting it back last fall, and then some.
Remember one thing in this business, and in life.
"Winning ain't no accident" - it was from a bookmaker down here who I respect as the BEST in the entire industry.
He's been taking big bets for years and booking for 35-plus years. That comment alone made me wake up and pay attention to my work: you're not going to win if you don't invest your time into it - not over the long haul, anyways.
Here's to a successful second season for all of us here at CTG. We're at 11 days for first kicks!!!
:cheers:
