some thoughts

[tee*dub]

Aplous asked my opinion on a couple cfb games over in my NFL thread and rather than bury it in that thread, I'll put it over here.

Iowa/Wisky--

Iowa getting 9.5 at home.. My oh my, what have we here? Ferentz coached teams do not typically get man handled up front but this is something that has to be considered when handicapping the game.. Badgers front seven defensively is stout but the backend is young and less talented IMO. ASU lit up the group for 325 yards. OSU's Braxton Miller completed 68% and had four TD's....

However, just double checked my notes, Iowa is not ASU and they do not have Braxton Miller at QB.. Against OSU whisky had to inch the safeties up because of the threat of Braxton's legs, leaving the corners very vulnerable and they paid.. They won't be inching up against Iowa as the front seven should be able to do everything they need to do without help.

So, can Iowa run the ball on Whisky.. My answer is no. Gameplan will be Rudock and a somewhat improving receiver core.. Without a lot of help I don't see Iowa scoring more than 17.. Will that be enough to cover the 9?

On the other side, can Iowa put the brakes on the roller skates their front 4 will be wearing? Iowa will likely play more "4-3 over" with the secondary in cover 4. This is the defense Iowa played under retired DC Norm Parker and its probably SGUs best chance to slow the run. (think 2010 Orange Bowl vs GT).. They will struggle getting off the field tho IMO.. Wisky only allowed 44 yards rushing to NW, Iowa allowed 225:thinking:

I never play that much chalk and its either dog or no play for me. Would lean the under and if Iowa covers it will need to be the back door variety which is very possible with this number.. 28-17 kinda game is what I am seeing if turnovers are in the neutral range.

 

[tee*dub]

BTW--- ORE ST -3, -120 became available at my place, so jumped that for Medium play.

 

[tee*dub]

Aplous also wanted some info on Mizzu/Tenny game... My son is a junior at Mizzu and am waiting on some info from him before I complete those thoughts..

 

[bloodhound]

Aplous asked my opinion on a couple cfb games over in my NFL thread and rather than bury it in that thread, I'll put it over here.

Iowa/Wisky--

Iowa getting 9.5 at home.. My oh my, what have we here? Ferentz coached teams do not typically get man handled up front but this is something that has to be considered when handicapping the game.. Badgers front seven defensively is stout but the backend is young and less talented IMO. ASU lit up the group for 325 yards. OSU's Braxton Miller completed 68% and had four TD's....

However, just double checked my notes, Iowa is not ASU and they do not have Braxton Miller at QB.. Against OSU whisky had to inch the safeties up because of the threat of Braxton's legs, leaving the corners very vulnerable and they paid.. They won't be inching up against Iowa as the front seven should be able to do everything they need to do without help.

So, can Iowa run the ball on Whisky.. My answer is no. Gameplan will be Rudock and a somewhat improving receiver core.. Without a lot of help I don't see Iowa scoring more than 17.. Will that be enough to cover the 9?

On the other side, can Iowa put the brakes on the roller skates their front 4 will be wearing? Iowa will likely play more "4-3 over" with the secondary in cover 4. This is the defense Iowa played under retired DC Norm Parker and its probably SGUs best chance to slow the run. (think 2010 Orange Bowl vs GT).. They will struggle getting off the field tho IMO.. Wisky only allowed 44 yards rushing to NW, Iowa allowed 225:thinking:

I never play that much chalk and its either dog or no play for me. Would lean the under and if Iowa covers it will need to be the back door variety which is very possible with this number.. 28-17 kinda game is what I am seeing if turnovers are in the neutral range.

Thanks for the thoughts here. I havent made a play on this game and U make a mighty appealing case for Wisky
Nice setup for Badgers, who catch Hawks off MichSt, OhioSt, & N'Western grinders with a 498-262 RY deficit last 2. Iowa
ranks 12th in both total & scoring "D", but Wisc owns a 297-88 RY/g edge, behind Gordon & White, covered its last RG by 10 pts, & is 5-0-1 ATS.
GL this wk teeeee

 

[UTSUX]

Aplous also wanted some info on Mizzu/Tenny game... My son is a junior at Mizzu and am waiting on some info from him before I complete those thoughts..

Can't wait.

 

[GoIrish!]

Aplous also wanted some info on Mizzu/Tenny game... My son is a junior at Mizzu and am waiting on some info from him before I complete those thoughts..

I take it you must bet Mizzu a lot then?

 

[tee*dub]

I take it you must bet Mizzu a lot then?

For and against. Lines were way off early conference games.

 

[tee*dub]

He doesn't play much for Iowa but thought this was funny:

@marcmorehouse: Iowa LB Marcus Collins arrested for OWI this morning. Forgot to put car in park when exited and it rolled into police car. No damage.

 

[tee*dub]

Mugshot of above mentioned student athlete. Appears he has had better days.

 

[tee*dub]

Couldn't figure how to post mugshot but was priceless

 

[Streakin]

lmao @ waiting on info from your son.

BOL as always, Tee

 

[tee*dub]

lmao @ waiting on info from your son.

BOL as always, Tee

Why that funny streak?

 

[Streakin]

Because when i was in college, my info for you would have been the girl last night. Just struck me as funny. Not even busting balls. gl.

 

[frankiegotti]

Thanks for posting these tee, you're the reason I come back to this forum. Good luck this weekend

 

[tee*dub]

Aplous also wanted some info on Mizzu/Tenny game... My son is a junior at Mizzu and am waiting on some info from him before I complete those thoughts..

Trying to find out status of injured QB James Franklin for Mizzou. He practiced earlier in the week but not sure if it was with or without limitations.. I'll keep hitting twitter today and my son to see if anything comes out.. It is very closely guarded apparently. If he plays, this game obviously is very different.. So, hard to cap it fellas.

Know this tho:

--Tiggers are down to just one healthy RB in the three man crew. Not sure Marcus Murphy is ready for 30 carries so you will likely see RS freshman Morgan Steward in there.. That could be trouble especially in passing situations. Freshman blocking for Freshman... Expect the Vols to be very active in their exotic blitz packages when Steward is in the game... And Maty has made some questionable decisions when under pressure in his few starts...

--How will Mizzu players react after Scary loss? Players were in shock after the game.. That kind of loss is very situational and usually leads to a second loss to a game opponent.

-- Is Tenny a game opponent on the road? I think it will come down to the Vols ability to protect the freshman QB vs a defense that leads the SEC in sacks (25) and INTs (15). They have two future NFL tackles so it should be an interesting matchup..

Basically fella's ---too many unknown's for me to enter an investment on this game. If anything I lean the Vols and the points... Saw this, interesting to note the last time the Tigers were undefeated and lost was 2010 vs Nebraska and many of these same players were on that team.. They followed that loss up with one the most uninspired performances I can remember and lost to an undermanned TT team. Ahh-- trying to predict the mindsets of 20 year old kids? Im about 50/50 on that

 

[tee*dub]

I have a few plays today-- try to post em up in a bit..

 

[tee*dub]

Mizzu injured QB Franklin is dressed but listed as 3rd string on depth chart.. Won't play.. targeting Ole miss game after bye next week... Heavy lean to the Vols for me but no play.

Only plays for me currently are:

Georgia -2.5

I will be on Kent state in some manner but waiting.

Other leans and possible plays:

Minn, sparty (don't like number), Kansas,NW, Pitt and the U

 

[Marsski]

Waiting on some Akron suckers with me. Nice.

 

[deuce's wild]

good info as usual tee - thanks for posting. iowa starting to get some love here closer to game time.

 

[tee*dub]

Waiting on some Akron suckers with me. Nice.

yes sir but the number I desire will likely never come. No harm waiting tho... I agree with your brief summary--- I know Akron is bad, I think Kent has just looked bad......And with a serious step down in class, kent should roll... never know in rivalry games tho

 

[tee*dub]

good info as usual tee - thanks for posting. iowa starting to get some love here closer to game time.

Its on my main TV.. I'll watch and see if anything stands out at Half.. If you haven't noticed Iowa second halves have been brutal and this game points to that as well.. Pay careful attention to TOP in first half.. That defense has worn down in several consecutive games

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I really like Tennessee today to cover and possibly win. The QB change is a blessing in disguise. Dobbs is extremely smart, mobile and should really open up new things for the offense. I think there will be a lot of positive energy with a QB that gives them more upside.

UT hasn't looked good on the road but you have to factor in the competition. Oregon and Alabama are possibly the two best teams in the country and UT probably beats UF if they start Worley instead of Peterman.

Tough to say how Mizzou responds after last week but that was certainly the type of loss where it would be very easy to dwell on what happened.

I think the Over is worth a look.

 

[tee*dub]

I really like Tennessee today to cover and possibly win. The QB change is a blessing in disguise. Dobbs is extremely smart, mobile and should really open up new things for the offense. I think there will be a lot of positive energy with a QB that gives them more upside.

UT hasn't looked good on the road but you have to factor in the competition. Oregon and Alabama are possibly the two best teams in the country and UT probably beats UF if they start Worley instead of Peterman.

Tough to say how Mizzou responds after last week but that was certainly the type of loss where it would be very easy to dwell on what happened.

I think the Over is worth a look.

Don't know much about the freshman QB MCG but I do know he is on the road against the best pass rush in the conference and will have traffic in his face all day long.. How he responds to that is kinda the game IMO... I just don't know so Ill watch and hopefully learn something... Mizzu's mindset also is difficult to predict as you suggest.. I lean the points but would be shocked if the freshman gets out of there with a W...gl today bro

 

[tee*dub]

gotta get in beast mode---- Georgia is going to be a big play and shopping right now for the remainder at 2.5> liklely gonna have to pay -120 for part of it.. Kent will be medium and that is probably it for me... Will stalk my conferences for HT plays..

 

[aplous]

GL today brother....with you on UGA and lean OVER.

 

[tee*dub]

Iowa has played horribly last several 2nd halves after an encouraging first half. Same narrative continue?

 

[tee*dub]

Went ahead and played kent state ml, risk 4u. I think it's pretty solid and when mars and I agree in the MAC it's usually pretty good. Hope trend continues .

 

[deuce's wild]

get'em tee - hope you found the 2.5 with dawgs as its on the move.

 

[tee*dub]

Iowa has played horribly last several 2nd halves after an encouraging first half. Same narrative continue?

Same exact narrative. Those paying attention are getting paid nicely.

 

[P-Unit]

good thoughts on Iowa

With you on Kent St.

 

[tee*dub]

get'em tee - hope you found the 2.5 with dawgs as its on the move.

4 units -110, 2 units -120

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I really like Tennessee today to cover and possibly win. The QB change is a blessing in disguise. Dobbs is extremely smart, mobile and should really open up new things for the offense. I think there will be a lot of positive energy with a QB that gives them more upside.

UT hasn't looked good on the road but you have to factor in the competition. Oregon and Alabama are possibly the two best teams in the country and UT probably beats UF if they start Worley instead of Peterman.

Tough to say how Mizzou responds after last week but that was certainly the type of loss where it would be very easy to dwell on what happened.

I think the Over is worth a look.

With you on Tennessee +11 and +320 on the ML.

 

[tee*dub]

total misread on kent st... 2.5 came in handy with Georgia.. with some other smaller stuff slightly better than even on the day.. gonna try to trade the FSU/Miami game and keep an eye a couple HT possibilities

 

[guinness]

Keep on pluggin....can't read them all..love your results!..must read