Some big plays I've made for today

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
Packers -11 and Packers -10 on the buy -120
Packers TT over 30.5

Packers off two huge losses. There's two teams I bet on a lot and watch their games pretty exclusively. Packers and Patriots, no doubt because they have the two best QBS in the league. Pack have seemed "off" for the last month. Situationally off two huge losses, I think this week sets up great for a "get right" game against a Detroit team that has some serious problems.

Some keys to the game, that I feel are relevant.
-Detroit is the worst team in turnover differential this year.
-Detroit 1-7 SU and ATS this year
-Rodgers off two straight losses in his career, is 2-0 SU/ATS in the 3rd game.
-Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb are finally healthy.
-The move to James Starks at RB over Eddie Lacy, means teams have to respect the run.
-Jim Caldwell coaches the Detroit lions
-Rodgers is 6-0 against Detroit, with a 116% passer rating against them at home.

Great situational spot to back one of the best QBs in the league, against a team that can't seem to get anything right.

Tennessee Titans
70% of my money is on +4.5-+5.5
30% of my money is on +195 ML


More of a fade for me of a team, that has seemed unstoppable this year, the Carolina Panthers. They come off 3 huge games, beating the Eagles, the Colts, and then the Packers. All of those games were at home, and now they go on the road for 1 game against a porous Titans team, before returning back home to face a Redskins team. Panthers have impressed the shit out of me this year, but I believe this is a easy let down spot. One knock going against the Panthers this year, is they've been extremely conservative in the 2nd half this year, which has allowed opponents to get back into the games. Mariota has impressed me this year, he has been extremely efficient, and I believe he can continue that against a team that may be in letdown mode. Titans have gotten healthier in the secondary, and have some sort of a running game with Antonio Andrews right now.

Plays I have also made that are smaller, more action plays.
STL/Chicago under 42.5
Seattle/Arizona under 45
Denver -4
JAX +5

Good Luck this weekend guys.



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I'm on GB -3.5 (close teaser), GB TTo30, 1H TTo17 and 1H -7 so we are seeing things the same there. I am a bit worried about a back door cover though so didn't add the full game line.

Seriously thinking about Tenn as well - that's the only side I would have there. GL today
 
Another note about GB.

GBs defense is allowing the 5th lowest QB passer rating % @ 79% this year, with a 10-10 TD/INT ratio.

Against a QB that seems to have lost his way, i think that's pretty important.
 
I have a note about them, they blow. I had -11 and a "can't lose" tease down to -5. What a bunch of shit but at least the Queens are in first place!
Man what a horrible day. Lost over 5 grand today. Carolina is excusable, but pack are not. What a terrible showing.
 
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