So, what have we learned? - Week 13

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Damn, did it really take me 13 weeks into the season to actually see enough football that I think I can adequately talk about what I saw? What in the holy hell is this world coming to?

OK, all I did today was house s**t and watch football. Yeah, I actually ironed. Which all means I probably have a gambling problem, and I definitely don't have a girlfriend, so I've got that going for me.

But I did see some things that I thought were interesting, some things that hopefully will help going forward.

First I learned that, without a doubt, two divisions suck rocks. And I'm not talking about the NFC West. Yeah, they're bad, but they're media-bad, meaning, the press is all over how much they suck.

But where is the press in talking about the NFC Central? Good lord these teams are bad. GB has enough talent on both sides of the ball to step up and bite you--occasionally, and Minny has the offensive line to actually win a game against a bad team, but seriously, this division blows.

What's great about this from a betting perspective is that when teams from a division like this (or the AFC West, the other monstrosity on my list today) get together and beat each other up a little, it masks how bad the football teams really are.

But, you complain, the Broncos beat one of the better teams in the AFC today--and you're right. However, they had a lot of help. Turnovers, the emotional letdown of beating Tennessee and coming home to what everybody figured was an automatic win, the motivation of being beaten--at home--by the Raiders. All that added up to a great spot for the Broncos, it just so happens that they played well, too, got the breaks, and won the game. It happens.

It doesn't mean they're a good team. Hell, my Browns are the only loss on the Giants' schedule to date, does that mean the Browns are a good team? Sadly, no.

But go easy on repeating that, Joe has a gentle constitution and can only take so much pain in his life.

Another thing I learned, which I mentioned in the in-game, is why Jason Campbell sucks. Here's a QB who can run, but doesn't 'want' to run. Which is fair enough, but the guy's decisions aren't good enough yet to be a pocket passer only. They may never be, I don't know, but what I do know is now whenever he starts to scramble out of trouble, instead of pulling the ball down and getting positive yards--yards which might actually open up some throwing lanes later in the game--he forces throws into bad spots because, well, because his decisions suck. It's a nightmare.

So while the NFC East may be a good division, and while you may be able to send Washington to play say, an AFC North team and expect them to win (as long as that team isn't Pittsburgh), you match them up against a team that knows how to pressure the QB like the Giants and you (like the bets I made on them today) are f**ked.

Which is something to consider.

I learned today that I think Romeo Crennel is going to get fired, which is sort of sad, only I'm not 100% positive I'm even spelling his name right so maybe that's for the best.

Obama in '08, Cowher in '09, that's all I'm sayin'.

Oh, speaking of teams you should like but don't, I also learned that Donovan McNabb takes great pleasure in putting his entire foot in his critics' ass whenever he can. And good for him. The Birds still need to win out to make me think Andy shouldn't be fired, but that was a pretty impressive win on Thursday.

Speaking of which, I've already played the Eagles at +9. That line is just stupid. And maybe they make me pay for biting on it, but that game has four to six points written all over it.

Huh, Buffalo's fading. I could have sworn we talked about exactly that happening about a week ago.

Pittsburgh's getting stronger.

Indy's losing players weekly.

Atlanta won a road game--in San Diego. But part of me feels that's a side effect that one gets when they hire Norv Turner to be their head coach. I haven't looked at SD's schedule, but it wouldn't shock me if they lost two or even three of their remaining games.

But I do think Atlanta's done a hell of a job this season.

Seriously, is anybody really surprised NO lost at TB today. Be honest.

I wonder, is Marvin Lewis still the Bengals HC simply because no one else wants that job? What reason do they have to win another game?

I think it's way too little way too late, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rams win a game here soon--of course, I haven't looked at their schedule either.

Huh, the Ravens played a football game today and nobody noticed. I guess that tree in the woods won't feel so alone any more.

That's a lot of what I saw, you?
 
Yeah you can kiss Romeo Crennel goodbye. With DA and Quinn out, his hopes are hanging onto Ken Dorsey. Nice knowing you Walrus.

Despite the great game thursday against Ariz, i'm still not buying the Eagles. I want to see them do that to a good defense, and on the road.

Rookie of the year: Matt Ryan. The kid has poise and can throw the ball. Of course it helps when you got a good running game with Turner but this guy is making plays. Who actually thought he'd be playing this good and at 8-4?

The Chargers at 4-8 have to be the biggest dissapointment. Almost everybody had them winning their division by a land slide. And the Broncos being in first place while scoring less pts (292) then giving up (319) shows how bad that division is. They'll get knocked out in the first round.
 
I saw that the best betting team in the NFL is the RAVENS or the Giants on the road-

Both teams run the ball, dont turn it over and play D and attack opposing QB-s a recipe for success in the NFL--

Denver is not great defensively, but when Champ comes back and DJ williams they can be okay---

Denver offense has the potential to go nuts-- they have Eddie Royal who IMO is one of the most dangerous players in the NFL- all this man does is score touchdowns--
ALso they have the most deadly tight end tony scheffler- man is 6'5 and runs a 4.5 second 40 yard dash- he is ripping it up all day with Cutler---

Washington sucks, jason Campbell, anyone remember week 1?? NOthing has changed wtith them, they beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones. Mark my words jason campbell will never ever ever beat the Giants--

speaking of that should the Ravens vs Jason Campbell next week guarantte washington scoring less tahn 10 points??? Campbell this year scored less than 10 vs PItts, Dallas, Giants twice-- he sucks bad and has no chance vs ravens D--

Atlanta is a very good football team, maybe too good, but they will lose in the playoffs casue they wont know how to close a team and the rookies will choke, tihs is 100% certain, they dont have any killer instinct to win games---

superbowl looks to be Pitts Vs GIANTS---

I think the NFl should just give Giants the trophy and play for 2nd place--

No one can touch these guys- not even a chance--
Pitts can give them a game but will still lose---

Buffalo sucks, Zona sucks, Gbay sucks, Bears suck, but were they ever really good?

Norleans cannot win on grass on the road plain and simple, they are an indoor dome teams--
Chargers stink- thats what happens when u hire NORV TURNER-- also everythrow by Rivers looks like a receiver is tight roping the line and barely in bounds or has one foot out ofbounds--
Rivers is easy to sack--

AP is the best player in this leageu and best running back ever easily--- it takes 4 guys to get him down-

Jets will 100000000000000000% lose in the playoffs--- this team has some talent- but is really bad vs the pass and has FAVRE, he chokes in big games, if he starts to struggle the result is 20 point losses to anyone they play---

Also worst coaches in this league---

MARK MANGINO- ROMEO CRENNEL-LOVIE SMITH-MARV LEWIS- DICK JAURON

Take your pick from these idiots- they all are clueless--

Pitts Giants and tenny i am pretty sure are all undefeated vs spread if they are DOGS this year-- that is easy $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
Im not sure if this thread means "what have we learned in week 13" or what have we learned up until week 13" but ill give it a quick go ...

I learned that Buffalo is who i thought they were, and looking back over the past 13 weeks, we can now see the 6 teams they have beatin' are a combined 17-54, of which only one of them is within 3 games of .500; jacksonville at 4-7!

I learned that the ravens can still beat teams that are below .500, and they wont make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs (assuming they make it, touch stretch coming up), even with the #2 defense in the league. Not taking anything away from their D, cause they're above average, but other than the 4 teams they've lost to, they really havent played any dangerous playoff teams.

I learned that Peyton and Dungy will find a way into the play-offs.

I learned that the NFC South has one of the toughest and best divisions in football right now. Carolina and Tampa at 9-3, Atlanta at 8-4 and even though the Saints are 6-6 who really wants to play them?

Speaking of Atlanta i've learned they've got a pretty nice D, Matt Ryan is having an amazing rookie year and he can partially thank Turner for making their running game a threat. I didnt expect the Falcons to win more than 4-5 games, im still impressed each game they win.

I learned that St. Louis, Oakland and Cincy are really that bad.

I learned that any time the boys are favored by 3 or less, i will have to lay the points with them. But also that the offense and defense continue to be in-sync and are not allowing burress to be a distraction.

I learned that the Patriots are still Bradyless and Matt Cassell is no replacement.

I learned that having a great defense, or number 1 defense in this case, can keep the Steelers superbowl hopes alive. Although IMO, their offense is average at best and at some time below average. And even though they had a good offensive day today, it wont always be so pretty and thats when having such a great D may allow them to prevail.

I learned that the redskins will continue to struggle until they can figure out how to run their offense better. Nothing about their offense looks natural. I havent watched one of their games, where i say to myself "man they were all on the same page for the drive". It seems like they have been an outside threat the past few years but never seem to get it together. Maybe it is time to start looking for a new leader on offense???

I learned that Bret Farve alone cant win every football game and that the Jets do still have weaknesses. It also appears that if the offense cant get going early, the defense isnt motivated to keep them in the game.

I learned that the Vikings have some talent. They can easily win their division if they want to.

I've learned more, but thats all i can tell you as of now ... :cheers:
 
Looking at this past week nothing really suprised me . The 2 teams that I expeced alot more from where WASH and SD . Looking at their seasons though hard to say I am suprised though .

This really should have been one of my best weeks ever in the NFL. I think the 2 above games were losses that I could not have avoided personally but the other 2 I had were DET and CINCY . Really silly to play bad teams and bad offenses versus OPPOSING DEFENSES that are very good. Think when it came down to it three games looked like a coin flip by kick GB/Car , KC . OAK , and Miami /STL but I had the 1st H dog in all three and all 3 dogs hit in those games at the end . The 4 sides I liked the most all hit Pitt , Minny , SF and Philly ....

What impressed me was the DENVER BRONCOS . I had leaned Denver and played them but not like I should have . Anyway tip your hat to Denver we all credit NE everytime a man goes down how they replace them. DEN is without all 3 starting linebackers with 2 on teh way back and one out for the season , Champ is out and a starting safety is out . They lost basically every RB they had on the depth chart as well . Jets are a solid team but like most of the teams in the NFL they are beatable . There is one VERY GOOD TEAM in the NFL and some day I will learn not to fade my hometown Giants . They are clearly the best team in the league overcoming every obstacle in their way .

So the way DENVER played defense on NY was most impressive again considering what they are dealing with . DEN all season has been plagued on offense by turnovers and having to live with at best a medicore defense . If they werent leading the sad sack division they play in I would say this team is dangerous . Since they are its hard to say they may be undervalued .

I developed 2 RULES TODAY :

1: Never grab POINTS when a STOUT DEFENSE is playing a bad team who has a weak offense .

2: Never lay points when bad teams squares off . I had thought about playing OAK all week but then I thought to myself how I could ever lay points with either team ? Thought back to the 1st meeting and realized basically I had decided way back then to take OAK because they were the dog. So 2 bad teams square off take the PUP .....

2008 is basically what I have been saying all along . The quality of football is medicore in the NFL right now and its not a good form of parity . Some good teams have been decimated by injuries (Ty Warren didnt play for NE , Saturday and Sanders out for Indy , etc) .

The Falcons represent what consistency each week can do for you . They play bend dont break defense every week , they run the ball , they complete passes when Ryan is called upon with 3 young WRs growing each game , most important we see few turnovers on offense .....

GB is a solid team but they have flaws and their schedule has been far from easy but they really havent beaten many good teams . I think if we counted they would be like 2-7 vs good teams . Which means they arent good really .

Vikes and Bears wouldnt read much into the game . Bears banged up on offense lost their NT early and you know that would help the Vikes ground game at some point . Which has been very good for the past month or so . Bears lucked out when they hosted Minny and we can see how Minny changed the game with the goal line stand ....

Rams who are they ?? They were lucky to get Pace and Sjackson back and see what a difference it makes when they have a healthy team. Problem is HOLT supposedly BEGGED out fo the game showing that he doesnt want a part of STLouie and Jackson was overworked and couldnt come in to go for 4th and 1 late in the game....They offense still sucks .....

Even the Pitt / NE game dont read much into the score . NE missed a 27 yd FG before half in a 10-10 game and everything just unraveled after that . Pitt enjoyed soem turnovers and great field position . Warren missed again . NE is thin and for them to BEAT good teams in consecutive weeks is going to be hard . Huge game @ Miami for them last week and not an ideal spot for them today . Now 3 losses at home and 2 straight --WOW ! They are still better then the JETS IMO .....

How bout SF ??? Singletary has that defense improving and despite alot of BREAKS today it wasnt an easy spot to get a WIN. Tip my hat .....

One of the best performances in a LOSS goes to the NO SAINTS IMO. Garcia had 9 completions , the Bucs were 2/15 on 3rd down but 2/2 on 4th and NO was +100 yards . Home field basically won it for the Bucs but I am not happy with their play and NO is the better team IMO . Bush is back as well and Pierre Thomas has been a decent runner .....Brees had 3 2nd H INTS and 2 granted were at the end of the game but the 1st was crucial . TB scoring drives were 40 something on the TDs and actually lost yardage on the FG make ......TB is one the decline IMO and Brees home-away splits are WIDE........

Game of the NEW WEEK ?? Miami @ Buffalo in CANADA.......:shake:

Still looks like Giants vs the healthiest AFC team at seasons end in the SB.....







 
good post NUT--------


I agree that Brees seems to be a HOME QB- he cannot play on the road it seems- he really throws int's and never really does it on the road like he does at home--
Brees can only be considered a good home QB-- the best QB's in the elauge like the Mannings do it on the ROAD as well as home-- BREES throws INT's galore on road-

Also agree that this year especially TBAY does suck also----

I see some really bad teams this year that may make the playoffs---

ZONA- Carolina- TBAY- are all one and done in the NFC---

Minny is a bit better than the others but will lose due to a bad passing game--

GBAY is a great over team the rest of the year----

If steve smith ever goes down for Carolina they wont score more than 7 a game-

TBAY will lose badly in playoffs- Garcia and that team is garbage---

Atlanta is good, but will lose in playoffs- they play too conservative---
 
Two things. First, as SN says, so much of it is about health. The reason I do take something away from this Bears/Vikings game is because of that very thing. Right now the Bears are thin, you can throw on them, and their passing game is only good in spurts. Part of that is injury and that may not be how they started the season, but that is where they are right now and right now is the only team we can bet on or against.

And when you're not healthy it really exposes your coaching and your organization. Remember last year with the Bills, they lost players and all the sudden they're 4-12 or whatever. Why? Because their coaching really isn't very good. The Browns this year, lots of injuries, they're 5-7 or whatever, same thing.

Oh, and speaking of depth, I learned that Houston Nutt may have been a s**tty coach, but that f**ker's staff could recruit him some running backs. McFadden, Felix Jones, and then that guy for Denver today. I figure all those guys came from his recruiting years. That guy for the Broncos today was dragging half the Jets' defense for 10 yards a carry, the guy was a beast, and he was a converted fullback. Nice work, Arkansas.

At any rate, you guys make some very good points, but one of the top ones I'm taking away is this. This year is sort of one of those 'they are who you thought they were' years. I've played, wrongly, teams in good spots where in other years they'd jump up and bite someone or at least get you the cover. Not here, not at least from what I've been seeing.

This year seems to be one of those, are they a decent team, do they play in a good division--are they playing a not-so-decent team that plays in a bad division? Well, then bet the first one--one of those kind of years.

Which is fine, it just means adjusting.

Give me a healthy-ish team that can run the ball and stop the run and I'll look at 'em.

Hell, look at the Eagles last week. They decide to run the ball and they stop the run (admittedly against a poor-running team) and suddenly they look like the team that went to the SB.

I'm starting to think this year's pretty straight forward.

Which of course probably means I'll lose my shirt next weekend.
 
I've learned that coaching is holding the Redskins back.

Trent Edwards is NOT an NFL QB.

Baltimore is a fraud, if they get in they will be gone quickly. Two of their TD's yesterday were on a gadget play and a miracle one handed 75 yard catch by Mason (who is one of my favorite receivers to watch) , but they won't handle the step up in talent in the postseason.

San Diego has made 3 mistakes that they will never recover from, getting rid of Brees, getting rid of Marty, and getting rid of Neal. LT is nothing without his fullback, Turner (now in ATL) and Sproles are better rb's.

Cleveland can make a legit run next year if they can find a head coach, all the pieces are in place.

Arizona still sucks everywhere but in Arizona.

Ben has not looked comfy in the pocket at all this season, and it's the only thing holding the Steelers back from winning it all. Yesterday was a big step forward for him though, I look for them to make a deep playoff run.

For as good as the Giants are, they are only one bad Eli performance away from going home in the postseason. The guy is carrying his team and getting zero recognition.

I've learned that I took way too much pleasure in watching Welker get his clock cleaned yesterday, I have it on a loop on my tivo, and it still makes me smile.
 
I've learned that I took way too much pleasure in watching Welker get his clock cleaned yesterday, I have it on a loop on my tivo, and it still makes me smile.


I can't watch the play enough times. It's like Clark took the wrath of *haters nationwide and unleashed them all on Wes Welker. When I watch the play I can't help but feel I'm one with Clark, so to speak.

And I love that it happened to Welker, the disingenous little douche with the moustache he couldn't grow who left an interview after a MNF game last because he said Coach Belichick was calling him to the lockerroom. Lamest shit ever.Maybe Bill will make him some cookies,tell him bedtime stories andtuck him in at night while he recovers from that hit.
 
I've learned that coaching is holding the Redskins back.

Trent Edwards is NOT an NFL QB.

Baltimore is a fraud, if they get in they will be gone quickly. Two of their TD's yesterday were on a gadget play and a miracle one handed 75 yard catch by Mason (who is one of my favorite receivers to watch) , but they won't handle the step up in talent in the postseason.

San Diego has made 3 mistakes that they will never recover from, getting rid of Brees, getting rid of Marty, and getting rid of Neal. LT is nothing without his fullback, Turner (now in ATL) and Sproles are better rb's.

Cleveland can make a legit run next year if they can find a head coach, all the pieces are in place.

Arizona still sucks everywhere but in Arizona.

Ben has not looked comfy in the pocket at all this season, and it's the only thing holding the Steelers back from winning it all. Yesterday was a big step forward for him though, I look for them to make a deep playoff run.

For as good as the Giants are, they are only one bad Eli performance away from going home in the postseason. The guy is carrying his team and getting zero recognition.

I've learned that I took way too much pleasure in watching Welker get his clock cleaned yesterday, I have it on a loop on my tivo, and it still makes me smile.


WOW some brilliant points there I agree with everything---

Adding to your post-

-Edwards is shit, Losman is not much better though also--

-Indy perceived as high scoring on the road plays low scoring time consuming drives- they take for ever to score on the road it seems and kick a lot of fgoals- observation play their unders--

-ELI has played perfect after the superbowl win it seems- good O line with jacobs,,ward, and good receivers-they have multiple targets-

-Cleveland for not having amazing db's somehow do stop teams from scoring, i am not sure how, but they do-

-Denver is dangerous on offense with the Cheetah, Sheffler and ROYAL-

-Arizona is super soft team- born losers on that team-warner is overrated bigtime- he has not scored 30+ on 1 good defense this year-

-Seattle is done, they need to rebuild, find new receivers and running back and QB- Hasselhoff is useless unless he has a huge O line and bigger receivers or younger ones- Branch is done in the NFL and engram is 35

-Pitts D is very physical and can beat most teams on that alone--

-Is there a better Defensive player in the league than PALAMALU?

-9'ers QB sean Hill is good- the man is winning vs teams that are trying-

-Baltimore has played no one and has 0 quality wins this year-
They have crushed any team with a bad offense-

-Chargers shoukld have got rid of LT he is 30-- Turner is younger, stronger, faster, just a better running back overall- LT is done without Neal-

-AP is money, so hard to tackle, so fast and so strong.
 
Cleveland for not having amazing db's somehow do stop teams from scoring, i am not sure how, but they do-

Cleveland's corners are actually good, it's just that nobody knows about them yet because they're so young. McDonald, who had a great game yesterday, is a second year guy. I think this may be Wright's second year as well. These guys are really young, but they're solid and their safeties aren't horrible.

What helps, though, is their LBs are really playing. D'Quell is leading the league in tackles, Wimbley (who seems to play both LB and down lineman) has been solid since day one, McGinnist plays well in limited roles, and Andra Davis is still strong. So when you have a decent middle like it helps make your secondary look better. And the LBs get a little help from that D-line which isn't the best, but is simply huge and does a good job just taking up space.

Of course, against an offense that knows what it's doing, that doesn't help all that much, but as the weather gets colder the Browns tend to give up fewer points if I'm not mistaken.
 
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