So, what have we learned? - Week 1

Joe Public

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Well, someone had to do it.

Hello, first time, long time. Anyway, the NFL has sucked your old friend Joe back in. Thank you to the 2024 World Champion Philadelphia Eagles for that, btw.

But, because of that, your friendly neighborhood Joe Public did a lot of NFL watching today and, as you might have guessed, he has some thoughts.

Overall, one thing that jumped out immediately is the new kickoff rule is going to have both a significant impact, and the impact the league wants imo, which is more points. At least in the short term. Probably by the end of the season teams will figure it out better, but right now—even though you didn’t see reflected in all the scores today—for at least the first half of the season, it’s going to help produce more points.

Games like NYJ/Pitt, Philly/Dallas, But/Balt, you had teams with short fields and it was almost like an instant flip of momentum. Again, it’s not going to make every game an auto-over, and the deeper we get into the season, the less pronounced I think it will be as special teams coaches get a handle on it. But for at least the first half of the year, I think it’s going to be something to account for. I honestly think it was a huge part of the reason the Eagles/Dallas game was on track to fly over the total before the weather delay.

Of course, it only helps if teams score. Which didn't happen in some places today so ya know ...

Second thing overall, a few of these games really underscored how much the first at least two weeks of the regular season are really still the preseason for some teams. I would argue this was true for Philly on opening night, for Dallas’ defense in that same game. It looked true for Denver today, Detroit didn’t really look ready for the season today. Miami was definitely not ready for the season, etc.

I only mention this because I think what we have now with the NFL and 17, soon-to-be 18, games is a sport that has at least three distinct parts to it. The first five or so games where the healthier more put together teams thrive, the middle of the season where coaching catches teams up and injuries start to break them down, and home stretch heading into the playoffs. And I can tell you being a fan of THE TEAM THAT WON THE SUPER BOWL LAST YEAR, playing your best football in September doesn’t matter. KC can tell you this too.

Don’t get me wrong, you can lose your season in the first five weeks, Cincinnati last year was kind of a good example of that. Miami may be a good example this year, but overall, if you can just keep yourself afloat for the first five or six games of the year, you can be fine. I don’t think KC really cares how games look early on, so long as they’re winning more than they’re losing.

As for some things on specific teams that jumped out at me today, the whole idea of Overreaction Monday—which has been around CTG forever—is now so baked into the mainstream. To that end what I did was to look at the teams I expect sports media and the public to overreact to this week and whether (based on this really small sample size) that seems accurate or not. To whit … (Say that like Stewie from Family Guy, it’s funnier that way).

LA Chargers
I fully expect the entire world to overreact to them beating KC in Brazil. Especially given how good Herbert looked in the win. Maybe it’s because I see Jalen Hurts compared to this guy so much, but it seems to me there’s no QB in the NFL that people want to succeed more than Justin Fucking Herbert. Which, good for him, I guess. Whatever. My preseason read on the Chargers was they’d really miss Slater on the OL and it could cripple them. So much for that. They’ve clearly had time to band-aid that and good for them. Thing about the Chargers is, I’m not entirely sure the public overreacting to them and suddenly thinking they’re very good is going to end up being that much of an overreaction at all.

I would expect some regression this week, post-international travel, off a huge divisional win, but if you look at Harbaugh’s past, LAC being good this season would track with his record when taking over teams. I have a feeling, especially because they did look very ready to start the season, this team may start hot and, if injury doesn’t hit them too hard, they may stay that way. Silly me, I wanted to take a piece of them to win the division, but figured I’d wait until after week one to get a better price. Now that +300 is going to be gone and oh well. Anyway, I think the cat may be out of the bag super early here with this team. They might be worth the hype.

Miami
This is the other side of the Chargers coin. Miami looked completely unprepared today, I’m very confident the public is going to sell on this team (watch the wise guys jump on this team next week, btw), and there’s an argument that the public may be right. McDaniels quotes after this game were not confidence inspiring. I know it’s an overreaction to say this team looks like it might quit by week three if things go really bad next week, but things were so bad today I don’t see how you can bet on this team next week. However, I don’t know if I’d fade them, simply because they’re in a huge bounce back spot at home with a great record in Sept there. But their OL is bad and their secondary is bad. And their QB has a history of health issues. This is a recipe for disaster. And if they do lose at home next week, or if they say go 1-3 to open the season, part of me thinks the wheels come off and McDaniels is the first coach fired. Not that it would make a difference, they have huge roster problems.

NYG
This is a team that I think will really embody the different segments of an NFL season. I bet this team +6 today (Hahahaha, good call by me), so I did watch some of it. I know this will surprise no one, but Russel Wilson fucking sucks donkey balls. Will he have one great game here in the first five weeks and take your money? Yes. Does he still enjoy tugging dudes off in the stadium parking lot? Probably. I got sucked in by the talk of how this DL is so good it can carry them just enough that Wilson can score 17 and keep them in games. Bullshit. Dart is going to be starting soon. Probably in like week five. Their next three games are at Dallas, then at home for KC and the Chargers. Maybe they’re competitive in one of those AFC West games, but I doubt it. The following week is on the road, but it’s in New Orleans. Otherwise they’d have to wait until Mid-November. And I don’t think they’ll be able to. I don’t know how many people watched this game, but I think those who did are going to read the early season Giants correctly. There was a point where Nabers and Daboll were basically yelling at each other on the sidelines. In week one. Now, look, winning changes everything and maybe when Dart comes in we can have a different conversation about this team. But from Denver to Pittsburgh to NY, I think the book is out on Wilson and his own team knows it. Sorry, Giants fans, I think your team is really, genuinely, terribly bad.

Green Bay
I know the entire world is going to start crowning this team this week. And so my natural reaction is to want to go against that. Except this is one of those teams that was very clearly ready to start the season. I’m not convinced that Parsons stays healthy for a full season, but early on it may not matter. They get Washington at home next week, potentially tough, but then it’s at Cleveland, at Dallas, their bye then Cincy, at Arizona, at Pitt, and at home for Carolina. That gets into the middle of the season, but this team could be 8-0 going into their game at home vs. Philly. At worst they’re what, 6-2? I don’t want to freak out, but the hype seems real, so long as Love doesn’t throw them out of games. Their defense was very clearly ready to start the seasons, and Parsons isn't even fully integrated yet. You don't even need their offense to be good for weeks if that's the case, you just need them not to lose you games. I think LeFleur is smart enough to keep that from happening more than once or twice. I feel good about my division ticket with this team.

Detroit
Conversely … It shouldn’t be a shock that Detroit started slow. Which I should have told myself before they killed the second leg of a teaser for me today (don’t tease week one, I know, I know). They’re not there yet. Which I think the masses suspected, but I think today showed. So I expect a pretty swift exodus from this bandwagon. Which is fine, next week they have another division game so it's possible they're 0-2 in the division to start the season. Then they have to go to Baltimore.

Right or wrong, I think Detroit’s goal has got to be to start 2-2, preferably 3-2 (Chi, at Balt, Clev, at Cincy). That gets them to a road game in KC then home vs TB before their bye. Then they re-assess. Maybe come the middle of the season they start to come together like Philly did last year when they had two new coordinators. Either way, I don’t want to lay points with this team right now. I want to play them in backs-against the wall situations. Like, let’s say they’re 1-2 at home vs Cleveland. Later in the year, once we have a better read on both new coordinators, only then do I think you can start to have a really good read on this team. For me, until then, I only want a part of them when they’re clearly desperate. Because I do feel like this team will fight to the death if they feel the season slipping away. And, especially if they don’t look good again next week, even if they win, they’ll likely get their clock cleaned in Baltimore which should open up value vs Cleveland and Cincy.

Dallas
I feel like people may overreact to Dallas based on how well they played in the first half vs. Philly. Of course, by next week, that may be too far removed for people to remember, but I think Dallas is exactly who you thought they were before the season. They are going to score a lot, they’re also going to get scored on. Dak looks healthy, their offense looks good, but their defense has a bunch of holes. Against a team like the Giants that probably won’t matter. But they're Dallas, and everyone (most notably ESPN) wants them to be good. And I think what we could see this year is that Dallas team from a couple of years ago who were great at home, bad on the road, and who couldn’t beat good teams. But that's enough to inflate some lines. Unfortunately, the value may not open up for a few weeks after week two. This week I’ll probably lay the points with them and may play the over. I know the Giants couldn’t score today, but maybe a little desperation sets in, especially when it’s quite likely that Dallas is going to get up on them by a couple of scores. The problem for Dallas is what follows, at Chi, GB, at NYJ. I know the Jets’ defense wasn’t great today, but there were extenuating circumstances there. I feel like all three of those teams may be able to at least keep Dallas’ offense to a dull roar. After that though, there may be some value in them or at least their totals.

Pitt
I’m positive people are going to overreact to the Steelers. Rogers had four TDs! WOW! AMAZING! HE MUST BE BACK AND TOTALLY NOT HIGH ON HORSE DEWORMER. Maybe. And maybe Justin Fields cooked that defense because he knew them from practice. Who knows. What I do know is the Jets should have won this game. I had the +3 here so that’s not sour grapes. I just think they were better. Which worries me for Pittsburgh. Also, remember, we’re still in the great weather part of the season and the most everybody is 100% part of the season. So that Aaron Rogers looked good today is fine. How’s he going to look in three weeks. In six weeks. I’m not buying it. But maybe they can get away with it. If the argument is Pittsburgh has never been good against mobile QBs, they don’t really see another runner until the end of November in Josh Allen. And people have flagged this, but the NFL gave Rogers a pretty friendly schedule to ease into the season. Seattle at home this week, at NE, home for Minny, a bye, home vs Cleveland. This team may start much better than they actually are or end up being. Which doesn’t really matter either way so long as you can profit on them or against them now and later in the season. But today the Jets cooked this team. If the weather in Pittsburgh is good next weekend, there may be value in the over with this team again there, and even the following week if NE can win in Miami.

KC
This seems like the prime spot for everyone to finally get off the KC bandwagon. Especially if they lose this week to the Eagles (which I’ll get to), two things could happen. One, you’ll definitely get a ton of value on them to win their division and, like it or not, that’s been pretty automatic for years now. So while it may not hit, it may be worth the risk. The other thing that could happen is, this could be it for this team. All those extra playoff games, all the wear and tear. Maybe this is the year it catches up to them and they need to miss the playoffs to reset and recoup. Maybe. Losing Worthy, if he is going to miss multiple games, is going to hurt this team a lot. Without him, outside of Mahomes, there’s a lot of average at the skill positions on offense. Which is fine for now, like I said above, KC is one of those teams that clearly gets that the regular season only matters insofar as it’s a path to the postseason. So maybe they tread water for the first third of the year, or more. Or maybe this is it. But we may not know for a while. Even if they lose this week, then they go to the Giants. Even if they lose the following week, then they go to the Jags then come home for three straight. So you could see a lot of middling play from KC for a few weeks. Which might only offer up value on the other side because even tonight KC had to open as a favorite before the money flipped the line to Philly.

Buffalo
Print the SB tickets. That’s what I imagine you’ll get after tonight with the Bills. This win may be worth two extra points with the Jets next week, if you’re so inclined. I, personally, would not be so inclined because I think the Bills just saw the best mobile QB in the league, they should be fine against Justin Fields. But Buffalo—who may or may not be better than Baltimore—looks ready to start the season. This is probably only bad if you don’t like them or were hoping to get some value on them to win the division if Baltimore beat them tonight. So much for that. Tough to see this team being anything but overvalued for the next week or two, or more.

Baltimore
Listen, I won on Buffalo tonight. I definitely should not have. And even I watched the first part of this game and thought, ‘Holy shit, I ate too much today.' But then I thought, 'Fuck you for judging me the opening Sunday of the season.' And then I thought. 'Baltimore is the best team in the league on day one. They just are.’

I want to figure out where you find that stat about how teams do ATS after they play you, because tonight Baltimore looked like one of those teams that is just going to kick the shit out of you for 60 minutes. And those teams, as Baltimore has been in the past, can lead to good spots to play against the team they just beat up in that next game. But honestly, of any team I saw this weekend, Baltimore looked the most ready for the season. Which shouldn’t shock anybody. And makes you just watch how long they can stay healthy. But value-wise, like the Bills and the Packers, it’s tough to see how you’re going to get value on them in the next few weeks. Hell, after tonight, even their team totals may be over-inflated.

As for the teams I don’t expect an overreaction to …
 
Washington
Honestly, I don’t think we know anything about Washington yet just because the Giants are so bad. They’re the oldest team in the league. Which won’t matter in September, but could matter massively by December. The Giants suck, but somehow Washington didn’t put this thing out of reach until relatively late. I don’t think people are going to overreact to today though in large part because I think the thought on the Giants is they suck (they look like they do) and that Washington should have won this game (they did)—and most people probably didn’t even watch this. So it's tough to overreact to Washington, especially when they're headed to Green Bay on a short week.

Cleveland
Here’s where I think there might be some value. I did watch this game, because I did bet this game, and not just because when the Browns wear orange pants they clearly have the best uniform in the league. Cleveland should have won this game. No question. Also, tbh, the over should have hit. There were points all over that field, but it’s week one. And neither team was truly all there. Thing is, this Cleveland defense is good. You may have heard about it in the offseason, you may not have. I did because the Browns did joint practices with the Eagles and, quite honestly, out-played the Eagles. If this defense can stay healthy, I don’t think games like today are going to be all that unique. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw with Cleveland what we saw two(?) years ago when you basically couldn’t score on them in Cleveland but they struggled on the road. Flacco is Flacco and he’ll probably only make it until like week six or seven. Thing is, Cleveland could be one of those teams that fights their ass off for like six or seven weeks only to see the wheels come off Their schedule absolutely sucks. Next week they play Baltimore as double digit dogs. And you know the Ravens will be pissed. Then it’s Green Bay at home, at Detroit, home for Minny, and at the Steelers. Even if the Steelers are starting to fall apart by then, and maybe they catch Detroit still jelling or Minny still getting McCarthy’s feet wet, they’re what, 2-3? 2-4? I think this team will fight, and I think they may stay inside some numbers—and my main hope is that people think this team is truly awful and they inflate those numbers. But while I want value here, I’m not sure the schedule will provide it. What's more likely, imo, is this defense looks really good for the first half of the year, but slowly the number of plays they're out on the field catches up to them through injury and fatigue. I do think there might be some value in them keeping games close early, but I fear that may be short-lived.

New Orleans
I watched a little of this, but I don’t think people overreact to this team because they’re assumed to be awful and that looks a lot like it’s going to be the case. When they didn't even try to replace Derrick Carr and went with Spencer Rattler, I think we all knew what was going on with the Saints this year. Find spots to fade them. Find the one home game where they'll be super motivated in a good spot for them and can stay inside a number.

Arizona
Same-ish thing. Yes there was hype on Arizona coming into the season, but they’re so historically bad that I don’t think ink the general public believes that. Also, I know the general public didn’t watch this game, I’m sure they'll see the score and think, ‘Engh, they won, but New Orleans sucks. Arizona probably sucks too.’ Which … may not be true, but Arizona didn’t exactly look like they were super on the same page to start the season today either. We might know signficantly more about this Arizona team after next week. Why? Because next week they get Carolina at home. If they have some urgency and kick the shit out of the Panthers, maybe there's something here. But they need to win, because the following two weeks are division games at SF and vs. Seattle. So without a win vs. Carolina, they could be looking at 1-3 right out of the gate with two division losses. That's borderline insurmountable even though it's super early.

Tampa & Atlanta
I’m combining these two because I would bet the public’s read on both of them is exactly the same today as it was before the teams played. They think these teams are mediocre, but with potential if things go right. And they’re not totally wrong. Also, both of these teams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the trenches. Again, I don’t think the general public watched this game. And what I saw of it was unsurprisingly sloppy. What’s wild is, I don’t think you’re going to know a lot about either of these teams until they play a team that isn’t in their same tier—only that doesn’t happen for either for two weeks. Tampa has Houston and Atlanta has Minnesota. Now, Minny might be markedly better than ATL, but it will only be McCarthy’s second start ever, his first home start. So again, I think we might be waiting to find out about both these teams for a few weeks. Which also makes sense because by say week four or five, that's when we should have a better sense of where they are with injuries and injury replacements. If you're like me, you might feel like, 'But I want to bet on the Bucs!' Which is fair, and you can, but it could end up like today which was a complete crapshoot. Tampa could have lost that game multiple times. Ditto Atlanta. Atlanta just had a stronger committment to losing today.

Houston
The Texans are the same thing. They start the year with two non-conference games. So what are we going to learn about Houston next week when they are going to host Tampa before two straight division games? Probably not a lot because would you put a lot on tape in two out of conference games immediately before two division games? Personally, I’m not sure we’re going to know anything about Houston until after their Week 3 game. Unless they can maybe hold Tampa to 13 or so points. Then maybe we can say their defense might be ready for the first third of the year? Either way, this is another game I don’t think anybody watched so I doubt you get a lot of market reaction to this team.

Philly
It's about time. Let’s talk for a second about YOUR REIGNING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. Although, the team doesn’t like to talk about it, Nick doesn’t want them talking about it, and honestly, this is not last year’s Eagles so I get it. I don’t think you’re going to get an overreaction to Philly’s opening night win, first because it feels like four weeks ago now. And second, because they won. Was it a good win? No, but when people were watching (pre-weather delay), they saw about what they expected from Philly—other than how soft the defense was in the first half. But there was no Jalen Carter so I’m pretty confident people just chalk this up to ‘Philly’s still good, they won, what’s next.’ How I can help you with Philly is this. Thanks to WINNING THE SUPER BOWL, your friend Joe was ridiculously focused on the Birds this offseason. Too much so, really. I think I can name 90% of their practice squad. That’s not healthy.

Anyway, this is a team that, defensively—was NOT ready to start the season. They have a huge hole at CB2, a new starting safety, and it’s going to take them some time to figure it out. Honestly, I didn’t like the spot for them this week at KC but for two things. One, if Worthy is out, that changes KC’s offense. Two, the Eagles just did this exact Brazil trip last year, and they were very open about how the recovery from that trip took much longer than anyone thought. They said it took weeks for them to feel right again. Now it’s KC’s turn. Add to that, Philly picked up Za'Darius Smith who was on the street for a reason, but is a huge depth addition to a DL that was exposed as criminally thin without Carter. Personally, I expected the Eagles to start slow this season. I’m not confident they win this weekend, though I like them more today than three days ago. What I would say is, expect this team to be a lot like last year’s team defensively, meaning they will probably take five or six weeks to start getting good. But when they do, they might get really good—again. Their offense, meanwhile, is ready to start the season. Their OL may be a little shaky due to injury, but if it holds up, this team should be good for 24-31+ per game even as they play some pretty good defenses here coming up in the Rams and Bucs. Teams will do what Dallas did, load up to stop Saquon, try to blitz Jalen and make him nervous. Depending on the OL, some days that might work, others, it won't. And if it doesn't work a lot, Jalen will be in the race for MVP based on his numbers.

Denver
You may get some people pulling back on Denver a little after today. But I’m also not convinced anybody watched this game. Maybe they did because they all had Denver in their Survivor pool. Or they had Denver closing out ML parlays and teasers (guilty). But I doubt they watched much more than the score on the ticker. I suffered through a lot of this game. Bo Nix sucked. BUT, as I said, I think the first two weeks of the regular season now are basically a continuation of preseason. So he’ll probably be fine. That said, he did suck. Like, Tennessee could have won this game. I’m not kidding. However, Denver’s defense was mostly as everyone advertised them to be. I think this is going to be another team that gets better as the season goes along, as long as they stay healthy. I think the value with Denver starts in Week 4. They'll be coming off the Chargers game in LA. If they lose that I think you might get a nice number with them at home for Cincy, and even the next week as they go to Philly who will be in a sandwich spot off a trip to TB and before going to the Giants. Then the Broncos get the Jets in NY, the Giants and Cowboys at home. That could be a good stretch for them.

San Fran
It’s wild I’ve waited this long to mention a team I have on a division ticket, but SF I think did just enough for people not to react too much to them—yet. The problem SF has is, they weren’t healthy coming into this game, and George Kittle went out before half and never came back. The good news for them is that so long as they have CMC (who looked good today), Trent Williams, and Purdy, their offense is still going to be balanced enough to move the ball. The other good news is they were ready to go today—at least from the standpoint of conditioning. The longer this game went on, and the more points SF kept leaving on the field, the more worried I was about backing a road favorite in a division game (don’t do that, it’s bad for your heart). But the truth is, by the fourth quarter, you could see it. They had worn Seattle down. Seattle definitely could have won this game, but that SF was able to go on the road, make a bunch of mistakes, and still wear Seattle down and survive? An impressive win. But I don't expect that to translate into an over the top overreaction. The game played like a ‘hard fought, three point divisional battle’ blah blah blah. And Kittle went down. I don’t expect to lose value on SF in the early part of the season based on this win. Which is good and bad because while I dont't think their lines over-inflate based on this win, they'll still be favored in their next three since they are at NO then home for AZ and Jax.

Seattle
Full disclosure, I am not sold on this Seattle team. I wasn’t before the season and I’m not now. And that is 100% because I believe Sam Darnold was the wrong choice for them. Again, like with Aaron Rogers, the weather is still great right now. But it won’t be for long. Especially not in Seattle. I don’t think Darnold is the right guy for this offense or this climate and if I’m wrong he’s going to steal my money week over week just as he did for IDK eight straight weeks or whatever it was with Minny. But I am going to die on the hill that it was the system in Minny that turned him around and got him paid. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense is good, but I don’t think it’s great. Honestly, I think MacDonald is remaking the Bengals in Seattle, only he doesn’t have Burrow or Chase. To me, that’s a recipe for a 9-8, 8-9 team. But, unlike the teams I mentioned that I think may take some time to come together, I think if you like Seattle, you want to get in on them now. At Pitt this week might be a tossup, but then home for NO, at AZ, home for TB (that’s a long-ass flight), at Jax (same, haha), home for the Texans. After that is their bye. And the weather turns. Personally, I like Seattle better early as opposed to late.

Indy, NE, the Jets & the Raiders
So, I’m lumping these all together because to me they’re versions of the same team, which might be super unfair to at least one (the Raiders) or maybe unfair to them all. I had a bunch of people tell me they liked the Raiders this week and I refused to listen. I didn’t see Vrabel losing a home opener. Stupid me. But I also don’t think anyone watched that game or really wants to believe either the Raiders or the Pats are good until they see it for themselves. That's why I don’t think you get a bounce one way or another on those teams from this game, predispostion to their general suckitude—which could possibly provide some value on the Raiders. I don’t know why I feel like Geno Smith is only going to provide value at home. Clearly that’s not the case, but even with a road win in an early game on the east coast, I don’t think anybody’s mind changed on the Raiders today. Which, again, may open up some value.

I do think you could see a bit of a bump, just a tiny one, for the Colts and Jets. But if so I think that’s only going to be from true degenerates which is probably not enough to really move a line and provide value in the next week or two. Personally I think Indy’s win was the result of Miami not showing up. However, after the last few years of QB redemption stories, I’m positive there are people out there who are looking for another one. And with Sam Darnold losing today, the easy answer there is Danny Dimes. And Indy’s defense was clearly ready for the season. So maybe you see some pros digging into the Colts as home dogs this weekend vs. Denver. Hell, I might tease them based on where Bo Nix is right now.

Same thing with the Jets, are they good? Probably not. Did they show up today? Hell yes. And because they showed up in a game against a team everyone pays attention to in Pittsburgh, you might see some love for them this week. Especially with Buffalo coming off a super emotional, monster comeback win. But the Jets to me are a little like Seattle. For the first few weeks you may get some interesting games from them—after all, for the first half of Justin Fields in Pittsburgh that’s exactly what you got. And their early season games should be good weather since they go to Florida twice after being at home for Buffalo this week. So maybe you get in on them early, before people start catching up to Fields as they seem to do.

Is that it? Oh no, wait, Carolina and Jax. Lord, talk about another game no one watched. Hell, I didn’t watch it. At least not after the first quarter when it was pretty obvious Jacksonville could do whatever they wanted on offense.

I don’t see much overreaction or any reaction really to either of these teams from this game. If anyone watched, once the weather delay hit they were tuned out. And it didn’t matter. Every preconceived notion about Carolina being shit and Jacksonville probably also being shit, but maybe just a tiny little bit less shit? Maybe? This scoreline does nothing to change that. There’s a slight chance that opens up some value on both teams next week though. They’re both on the road, Jax in Cincy and Carolina in Arizona. Neither matchup is terrible, they’re both catching +3.5 and +6.5 respectively. You’d be betting on bad teams, but you’d also be betting against pretty marginal teams, neither of whom really proved much of anything today. So you’d have that going for you.

You’d also be a degenerate who’s got money on both the Panthers and the Jaguars in Week 2. At that point, maybe look into going to a meeting.

Of course, if you weren’t a degenerate, would you be at CTG? And would you have even have come close to reading this whole thing?

I think not, my friend. I think not.

OK, hi for now, bye for now. And remember, don’t listen to BAR, he’s just trying to score a free reacharound. Again.

Your turn ...
 
I was at the Saints game yesterday, I had +6.5 and some ML. I definitely feel like the +6.5 should’ve been good.
The Saints have 1st round picks all on the O Line and they got pushed around. Penalties felt like some of the DA is still around….

What a nighttime game!
I’d play with Lamar Jackson any day of the week. Seems like a great teammate.
 
I can easily see the lions starting off 2-7 at a quick glance. The long sustained offensive drives only work when you can get 6 and hover somewhere around 50% for defensive stops. The inability once the field shrunk to red zone was bad, terrible in fact. Moving forward this will create more pressure and mistakes in the red zone. I have had this strange theory about players in commercials having terrible years and let me tell you something fellas. Lions players and DC were in at least 10 commercials I saw during the game and probably more. Its a working theory but it has strong roots.
Josh Allen MVP.
 
Joe Public said:
Washington
Honestly, I don’t think we know anything about Washington yet just because the Giants are so bad. They’re the oldest team in the league. Which won’t matter in September, but could matter massively by December. The Giants suck, but somehow Washington didn’t put this thing out of reach until relatively late. I don’t think people are going to overreact to today though in large part because I think the thought on the Giants is they suck (they look like they do) and that Washington should have won this game (they did)—and most people probably didn’t even watch this. So it's tough to overreact to Washington, especially when they're headed to Green Bay on a short week.

Cleveland
Here’s where I think there might be some value. I did watch this game, because I did bet this game, and not just because when the Browns wear orange pants they clearly have the best uniform in the league. Cleveland should have won this game. No question. Also, tbh, the over should have hit. There were points all over that field, but it’s week one. And neither team was truly all there. Thing is, this Cleveland defense is good. You may have heard about it in the offseason, you may not have. I did because the Browns did joint practices with the Eagles and, quite honestly, out-played the Eagles. If this defense can stay healthy, I don’t think games like today are going to be all that unique. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw with Cleveland what we saw two(?) years ago when you basically couldn’t score on them in Cleveland but they struggled on the road. Flacco is Flacco and he’ll probably only make it until like week six or seven. Thing is, Cleveland could be one of those teams that fights their ass off for like six or seven weeks only to see the wheels come off Their schedule absolutely sucks. Next week they play Baltimore as double digit dogs. And you know the Ravens will be pissed. Then it’s Green Bay at home, at Detroit, home for Minny, and at the Steelers. Even if the Steelers are starting to fall apart by then, and maybe they catch Detroit still jelling or Minny still getting McCarthy’s feet wet, they’re what, 2-3? 2-4? I think this team will fight, and I think they may stay inside some numbers—and my main hope is that people think this team is truly awful and they inflate those numbers. But while I want value here, I’m not sure the schedule will provide it. What's more likely, imo, is this defense looks really good for the first half of the year, but slowly the number of plays they're out on the field catches up to them through injury and fatigue. I do think there might be some value in them keeping games close early, but I fear that may be short-lived.

New Orleans
I watched a little of this, but I don’t think people overreact to this team because they’re assumed to be awful and that looks a lot like it’s going to be the case. When they didn't even try to replace Derrick Carr and went with Spencer Rattler, I think we all knew what was going on with the Saints this year. Find spots to fade them. Find the one home game where they'll be super motivated in a good spot for them and can stay inside a number.

Arizona
Same-ish thing. Yes there was hype on Arizona coming into the season, but they’re so historically bad that I don’t think ink the general public believes that. Also, I know the general public didn’t watch this game, I’m sure they'll see the score and think, ‘Engh, they won, but New Orleans sucks. Arizona probably sucks too.’ Which … may not be true, but Arizona didn’t exactly look like they were super on the same page to start the season today either. We might know signficantly more about this Arizona team after next week. Why? Because next week they get Carolina at home. If they have some urgency and kick the shit out of the Panthers, maybe there's something here. But they need to win, because the following two weeks are division games at SF and vs. Seattle. So without a win vs. Carolina, they could be looking at 1-3 right out of the gate with two division losses. That's borderline insurmountable even though it's super early.

Tampa & Atlanta
I’m combining these two because I would bet the public’s read on both of them is exactly the same today as it was before the teams played. They think these teams are mediocre, but with potential if things go right. And they’re not totally wrong. Also, both of these teams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the trenches. Again, I don’t think the general public watched this game. And what I saw of it was unsurprisingly sloppy. What’s wild is, I don’t think you’re going to know a lot about either of these teams until they play a team that isn’t in their same tier—only that doesn’t happen for either for two weeks. Tampa has Houston and Atlanta has Minnesota. Now, Minny might be markedly better than ATL, but it will only be McCarthy’s second start ever, his first home start. So again, I think we might be waiting to find out about both these teams for a few weeks. Which also makes sense because by say week four or five, that's when we should have a better sense of where they are with injuries and injury replacements. If you're like me, you might feel like, 'But I want to bet on the Bucs!' Which is fair, and you can, but it could end up like today which was a complete crapshoot. Tampa could have lost that game multiple times. Ditto Atlanta. Atlanta just had a stronger committment to losing today.

Houston
The Texans are the same thing. They start the year with two non-conference games. So what are we going to learn about Houston next week when they are going to host Tampa before two straight division games? Probably not a lot because would you put a lot on tape in two out of conference games immediately before two division games? Personally, I’m not sure we’re going to know anything about Houston until after their Week 3 game. Unless they can maybe hold Tampa to 13 or so points. Then maybe we can say their defense might be ready for the first third of the year? Either way, this is another game I don’t think anybody watched so I doubt you get a lot of market reaction to this team.

Philly
It's about time. Let’s talk for a second about YOUR REIGNING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. Although, the team doesn’t like to talk about it, Nick doesn’t want them talking about it, and honestly, this is not last year’s Eagles so I get it. I don’t think you’re going to get an overreaction to Philly’s opening night win, first because it feels like four weeks ago now. And second, because they won. Was it a good win? No, but when people were watching (pre-weather delay), they saw about what they expected from Philly—other than how soft the defense was in the first half. But there was no Jalen Carter so I’m pretty confident people just chalk this up to ‘Philly’s still good, they won, what’s next.’ How I can help you with Philly is this. Thanks to WINNING THE SUPER BOWL, your friend Joe was ridiculously focused on the Birds this offseason. Too much so, really. I think I can name 90% of their practice squad. That’s not healthy.

Anyway, this is a team that, defensively—was NOT ready to start the season. They have a huge hole at CB2, a new starting safety, and it’s going to take them some time to figure it out. Honestly, I didn’t like the spot for them this week at KC but for two things. One, if Worthy is out, that changes KC’s offense. Two, the Eagles just did this exact Brazil trip last year, and they were very open about how the recovery from that trip took much longer than anyone thought. They said it took weeks for them to feel right again. Now it’s KC’s turn. Add to that, Philly picked up Za'Darius Smith who was on the street for a reason, but is a huge depth addition to a DL that was exposed as criminally thin without Carter. Personally, I expected the Eagles to start slow this season. I’m not confident they win this weekend, though I like them more today than three days ago. What I would say is, expect this team to be a lot like last year’s team defensively, meaning they will probably take five or six weeks to start getting good. But when they do, they might get really good—again. Their offense, meanwhile, is ready to start the season. Their OL may be a little shaky due to injury, but if it holds up, this team should be good for 24-31+ per game even as they play some pretty good defenses here coming up in the Rams and Bucs. Teams will do what Dallas did, load up to stop Saquon, try to blitz Jalen and make him nervous. Depending on the OL, some days that might work, others, it won't. And if it doesn't work a lot, Jalen will be in the race for MVP based on his numbers.

Denver
You may get some people pulling back on Denver a little after today. But I’m also not convinced anybody watched this game. Maybe they did because they all had Denver in their Survivor pool. Or they had Denver closing out ML parlays and teasers (guilty). But I doubt they watched much more than the score on the ticker. I suffered through a lot of this game. Bo Nix sucked. BUT, as I said, I think the first two weeks of the regular season now are basically a continuation of preseason. So he’ll probably be fine. That said, he did suck. Like, Tennessee could have won this game. I’m not kidding. However, Denver’s defense was mostly as everyone advertised them to be. I think this is going to be another team that gets better as the season goes along, as long as they stay healthy. I think the value with Denver starts in Week 4. They'll be coming off the Chargers game in LA. If they lose that I think you might get a nice number with them at home for Cincy, and even the next week as they go to Philly who will be in a sandwich spot off a trip to TB and before going to the Giants. Then the Broncos get the Jets in NY, the Giants and Cowboys at home. That could be a good stretch for them.

San Fran
It’s wild I’ve waited this long to mention a team I have on a division ticket, but SF I think did just enough for people not to react too much to them—yet. The problem SF has is, they weren’t healthy coming into this game, and George Kittle went out before half and never came back. The good news for them is that so long as they have CMC (who looked good today), Trent Williams, and Purdy, their offense is still going to be balanced enough to move the ball. The other good news is they were ready to go today—at least from the standpoint of conditioning. The longer this game went on, and the more points SF kept leaving on the field, the more worried I was about backing a road favorite in a division game (don’t do that, it’s bad for your heart). But the truth is, by the fourth quarter, you could see it. They had worn Seattle down. Seattle definitely could have won this game, but that SF was able to go on the road, make a bunch of mistakes, and still wear Seattle down and survive? An impressive win. But I don't expect that to translate into an over the top overreaction. The game played like a ‘hard fought, three point divisional battle’ blah blah blah. And Kittle went down. I don’t expect to lose value on SF in the early part of the season based on this win. Which is good and bad because while I dont't think their lines over-inflate based on this win, they'll still be favored in their next three since they are at NO then home for AZ and Jax.

Seattle
Full disclosure, I am not sold on this Seattle team. I wasn’t before the season and I’m not now. And that is 100% because I believe Sam Darnold was the wrong choice for them. Again, like with Aaron Rogers, the weather is still great right now. But it won’t be for long. Especially not in Seattle. I don’t think Darnold is the right guy for this offense or this climate and if I’m wrong he’s going to steal my money week over week just as he did for IDK eight straight weeks or whatever it was with Minny. But I am going to die on the hill that it was the system in Minny that turned him around and got him paid. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense is good, but I don’t think it’s great. Honestly, I think MacDonald is remaking the Bengals in Seattle, only he doesn’t have Burrow or Chase. To me, that’s a recipe for a 9-8, 8-9 team. But, unlike the teams I mentioned that I think may take some time to come together, I think if you like Seattle, you want to get in on them now. At Pitt this week might be a tossup, but then home for NO, at AZ, home for TB (that’s a long-ass flight), at Jax (same, haha), home for the Texans. After that is their bye. And the weather turns. Personally, I like Seattle better early as opposed to late.

Indy, NE, the Jets & the Raiders
So, I’m lumping these all together because to me they’re versions of the same team, which might be super unfair to at least one (the Raiders) or maybe unfair to them all. I had a bunch of people tell me they liked the Raiders this week and I refused to listen. I didn’t see Vrabel losing a home opener. Stupid me. But I also don’t think anyone watched that game or really wants to believe either the Raiders or the Pats are good until they see it for themselves. That's why I don’t think you get a bounce one way or another on those teams from this game, predispostion to their general suckitude—which could possibly provide some value on the Raiders. I don’t know why I feel like Geno Smith is only going to provide value at home. Clearly that’s not the case, but even with a road win in an early game on the east coast, I don’t think anybody’s mind changed on the Raiders today. Which, again, may open up some value.

I do think you could see a bit of a bump, just a tiny one, for the Colts and Jets. But if so I think that’s only going to be from true degenerates which is probably not enough to really move a line and provide value in the next week or two. Personally I think Indy’s win was the result of Miami not showing up. However, after the last few years of QB redemption stories, I’m positive there are people out there who are looking for another one. And with Sam Darnold losing today, the easy answer there is Danny Dimes. And Indy’s defense was clearly ready for the season. So maybe you see some pros digging into the Colts as home dogs this weekend vs. Denver. Hell, I might tease them based on where Bo Nix is right now.

Same thing with the Jets, are they good? Probably not. Did they show up today? Hell yes. And because they showed up in a game against a team everyone pays attention to in Pittsburgh, you might see some love for them this week. Especially with Buffalo coming off a super emotional, monster comeback win. But the Jets to me are a little like Seattle. For the first few weeks you may get some interesting games from them—after all, for the first half of Justin Fields in Pittsburgh that’s exactly what you got. And their early season games should be good weather since they go to Florida twice after being at home for Buffalo this week. So maybe you get in on them early, before people start catching up to Fields as they seem to do.

Is that it? Oh no, wait, Carolina and Jax. Lord, talk about another game no one watched. Hell, I didn’t watch it. At least not after the first quarter when it was pretty obvious Jacksonville could do whatever they wanted on offense.

I don’t see much overreaction or any reaction really to either of these teams from this game. If anyone watched, once the weather delay hit they were tuned out. And it didn’t matter. Every preconceived notion about Carolina being shit and Jacksonville probably also being shit, but maybe just a tiny little bit less shit? Maybe? This scoreline does nothing to change that. There’s a slight chance that opens up some value on both teams next week though. They’re both on the road, Jax in Cincy and Carolina in Arizona. Neither matchup is terrible, they’re both catching +3.5 and +6.5 respectively. You’d be betting on bad teams, but you’d also be betting against pretty marginal teams, neither of whom really proved much of anything today. So you’d have that going for you.

You’d also be a degenerate who’s got money on both the Panthers and the Jaguars in Week 2. At that point, maybe look into going to a meeting.

Of course, if you weren’t a degenerate, would you be at CTG? And would you have even have come close to reading this whole thing?

I think not, my friend. I think not.

OK, hi for now, bye for now. And remember, don’t listen to BAR, he’s just trying to score a free reacharound. Again.

Your turn ...
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Fantastic read brother !!!

Really appreciate your time
 
Houston has a bunch of headhunters on that D. Very physical that is going to give offenses problems. CJ should have used his feet more.
Rams are pretty much the same team under McVay. They are most dangerous when Stafford has to win the game. Their run game can disappear at times which is why they struggle to control games. God forbid they run it twice in a row. Rams D is solid. They seem to struggle getting off the field on 3rd down. Can’t go crazy either way off of this game.
 
Holy shit, Ivy. Hahahaha. First of all, and most importantly, it's really really good to see all these friendly faces. Even STEEEEEEEEEEEED.

Now that a Joe has slept on it, a couple of maybe minor tweaks.

Washington
I may give them a little more credit today than I did yesterday. There's a video clip going around, I'm sure you can find it if you look for it, of the Giants absolutely getting cooked on second down after second down yesterday. After looking at some of these plays again, what jumps out is the protection. The thing about the Giants is, and I think even they kind of admit this, their back end sucks. A lot. The whole premise is that their DL is going to be so good they're going to force QBs to get that ball out so quick it will hide the flaws in the Giants' secondary.

Yesterday, that didn't happen. Daniels—who looks just as calm and cool in year two as he did in his rookie year—not only had a a ton of time, on the plays where he's dealing for like 9-12 yards a pop, the pockets were super clean. This suggests the whole Tunstil trade might be working exactly as advertised. Combine that with the fact that the Giants did nothing offensively and the Commies had a ton of penalties and Washington may be more ahead of the curve to start the season then I thought.

The problem with that is, you may not be able to take advantage of it until weeks three and four. Honestly, looking at their schedule, I hope Green Bay kind of beats them up on Thursday. That could—maybe, possibly, hopefully—drive down the number a bit for the next week at home vs. the Raiders where they'll have a nice rest advantage coming off a Monday night divisional game for the Raiders. Which, not for nothing, is the NFL truly shitting on the Raiders for no reason. Washington gets 10 days and you're making the Raiders play on short rest—and travel across the country? Yikes.

Las Vegas
Speaking of the Raiders, I think I want to revise their stock up slightly too. I don't love this because I have a ticket on their season wins under, but I'm starting to question that already. I'm not sure I gave enough credit to the previous relationship between Carroll/Smith and the confidence they clearly have in each other. My feeling about the season was that the Raiders OL sucks, they're clearly fourth in their division and whatever Carroll is going to build will take a couple of years.

What I think I'm underestimating is not only Carroll's history with Smith—i.e., this isn't a relationship that's starting from scratch—but also (and I really hate to say this) Chip Kelly. Kelly sucks in charge, but he's a really smart offensive mind. Word is he was happier than a pig in shit about having maybe the best TE in the game + a second strong TE so he can have them both on the field at the same time to open up his WRs. Yesterday that worked to the tune of over 360 yards for Geno. I'm not saying this is a 12 win team, but I'm worried my under 7.5 may be in a good bit of trouble and this might be an eight or nine win team that covers a lot. Either that or all that hype on New England was total bullshit and they're utter garbage who anyone can throw for 300 on.

Jax
I heard someone on the radio this AM talking about Tampa and the issues they had yesterday, particularly running. Their leading rusher was Baker with under 40 yards. Now, they had injuries on the OL, and it was a sloppy game. But it made me think there's an argument that says losing Cohen to the Jags was part of Tampa's early struggles here. Meanwhile, for the Jags, Etienne went for 143. And I didn't watch the whole thing, but Trevor Lawrence looked better than he's looked to me in some time. His stats weren't great, but it felt like the Jags could really do whatever they wanted yesterday—against a defense that Carolina thought they'd really improved. So maybe ...? Maybe Jax is a little better than someone who beat up on a really shitty opponent? Maybe? And in a division that is kind of wide open, maybe there's some value in them early?

Detroit
I also think I may want to double-down on my concern for the Lions. Maybe not long term for the season, but the immediate worry. It's always easy to look at a game after the fact and be mad you did or didn't do something. In this one, I'm mad I didn't play GB. Not because of the Packers—who did look really good—but because the signs were all there for a slow Lions start and the number was low. Forget the coordinators for two seconds, they've had major changes on their OL. OK, now remember the coordinators. What you have is a team that last year was, no offense to Goff, heavily reliant on their scheme. And now the guy who called the scheme, and the guys who blocked for the scheme are totally different. No wonder Detroit couldn't run yesterday. Why should we be shocked if this offense takes four or six or more weeks to get on track. Or, maybe like Philly two years ago, these aren't the right coordinators and it never gets on track. Either way, in the immediate future, this team worries me. Even if Chicago's defense isn't great next week, they then have the Ravens and the Browns on deck. Detroit may need to call me back around Halloween to see if I'm interested, because right now I've got other plans. I'm washing my hair. Joe's busy.

I liked @wiseplayer's point on Houston's defense. I want to see more Houston and we'll get them in a standalone spot next Monday at home vs TB. So that could tell us some things, even if I think they likely keep the offense somewhat vanilla as to not tip their hand for the two division games they have to follow.

And I never touched on the Rams from that same game. Their defense clearly looked ready to start the season. I leaned to the under in this game, but didn't play it. Obviously the concern is Stafford's health. But if that team is going to keep their opponents in check so well, maybe they're a straight under play for these first couple of weeks.

I also agree with @twinkie13 that +6.5 for the Saints should have been good. Buuuuuuut, isn't this what happens with bad teams? They start out the season fighting, competing, but not winning. Then slowly they realize they're 1-4 and two back in the division and it starts to get away from them. Which isn't to shit on the Saints, I am convinced the whole Kellen Moore deal was based on this year being a lost year so long as it builds a foundation to work from going forward.

Last, given the benefit of hindsight, it's kind of wild that maybe @cubsker was right and the only way forward was some anarchy. Because that's what we're starting to get. Which makes Joe really root for the meteor, but that's not about football and I digress. Also, wasn't the lib friend always VK? Hahahahahahaha.

Great to see you degenerates, it really is. Yes, even Steed. Why are you all so mean to him all the time.
 
pressitup said:
Bengals had 7yds in the 2nd half, won the game.
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They did. Infuriatingly so for those of us who were stupid enough to try to buck the divisional unders in week one trend. But they should not have won that game. Cleveland missed a FG and a PAT—and were driving to win the game. Cleveland's defense was the story of that game, imo. They looked ready to start the season. Meanwhile, the Bengals did just enough to survive. And I'm sure they know that. I'm also convinced the Bengals will do what they always do which is slowly and steadily improve as the season goes along. The only question is if they can steal a few wins like they did yesterday early on so when they do get good they're actually in a position to contend for the division.
 
The biggest observation is::

The game now prioritizes BALL CONTROL and TIME OF POSSESSION.

Teams throw shorter quicker passes and are willing to gamble on 4th down at any time now.

The defenses have completely taken away the deep balls that we used to see more back in the day.

Offenses with mobile qb’s who can break out of the pocket are required now. Look at Josh Allen when he broke outside the pocket and mahomes succeess was predicated on him scrambling around the pocket..
 
John Harbaugh is a terrible coach:: He plays to lose when leading. He is old school and the game has passed him now.

Mike Macdonald is also terrible. Weak mjnded defensive mentality. Also coaches to lose. Lost season opener to niners without kittle and jennings. Horrible coaching
 
The Dolphins were a dumpster fire last year and decided to run it back. Just like the Falcons did with Koo who was washed last year. Dude is 12 for last 20 in kicks and only 8 of 14 from under 49.

Penix looks like he has the skill to be a decent NFL QB, sadly he'll never win anything playing for a bottom 5 organization.

It was nice to see Harold Fannin have a nice debut for the Browns. Sometimes film and production matter more than what your 40 time is.
 
Joe Public said:
Washington
Honestly, I don’t think we know anything about Washington yet just because the Giants are so bad. They’re the oldest team in the league. Which won’t matter in September, but could matter massively by December. The Giants suck, but somehow Washington didn’t put this thing out of reach until relatively late. I don’t think people are going to overreact to today though in large part because I think the thought on the Giants is they suck (they look like they do) and that Washington should have won this game (they did)—and most people probably didn’t even watch this. So it's tough to overreact to Washington, especially when they're headed to Green Bay on a short week.

Cleveland
Here’s where I think there might be some value. I did watch this game, because I did bet this game, and not just because when the Browns wear orange pants they clearly have the best uniform in the league. Cleveland should have won this game. No question. Also, tbh, the over should have hit. There were points all over that field, but it’s week one. And neither team was truly all there. Thing is, this Cleveland defense is good. You may have heard about it in the offseason, you may not have. I did because the Browns did joint practices with the Eagles and, quite honestly, out-played the Eagles. If this defense can stay healthy, I don’t think games like today are going to be all that unique. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw with Cleveland what we saw two(?) years ago when you basically couldn’t score on them in Cleveland but they struggled on the road. Flacco is Flacco and he’ll probably only make it until like week six or seven. Thing is, Cleveland could be one of those teams that fights their ass off for like six or seven weeks only to see the wheels come off Their schedule absolutely sucks. Next week they play Baltimore as double digit dogs. And you know the Ravens will be pissed. Then it’s Green Bay at home, at Detroit, home for Minny, and at the Steelers. Even if the Steelers are starting to fall apart by then, and maybe they catch Detroit still jelling or Minny still getting McCarthy’s feet wet, they’re what, 2-3? 2-4? I think this team will fight, and I think they may stay inside some numbers—and my main hope is that people think this team is truly awful and they inflate those numbers. But while I want value here, I’m not sure the schedule will provide it. What's more likely, imo, is this defense looks really good for the first half of the year, but slowly the number of plays they're out on the field catches up to them through injury and fatigue. I do think there might be some value in them keeping games close early, but I fear that may be short-lived.

New Orleans
I watched a little of this, but I don’t think people overreact to this team because they’re assumed to be awful and that looks a lot like it’s going to be the case. When they didn't even try to replace Derrick Carr and went with Spencer Rattler, I think we all knew what was going on with the Saints this year. Find spots to fade them. Find the one home game where they'll be super motivated in a good spot for them and can stay inside a number.

Arizona
Same-ish thing. Yes there was hype on Arizona coming into the season, but they’re so historically bad that I don’t think ink the general public believes that. Also, I know the general public didn’t watch this game, I’m sure they'll see the score and think, ‘Engh, they won, but New Orleans sucks. Arizona probably sucks too.’ Which … may not be true, but Arizona didn’t exactly look like they were super on the same page to start the season today either. We might know signficantly more about this Arizona team after next week. Why? Because next week they get Carolina at home. If they have some urgency and kick the shit out of the Panthers, maybe there's something here. But they need to win, because the following two weeks are division games at SF and vs. Seattle. So without a win vs. Carolina, they could be looking at 1-3 right out of the gate with two division losses. That's borderline insurmountable even though it's super early.

Tampa & Atlanta
I’m combining these two because I would bet the public’s read on both of them is exactly the same today as it was before the teams played. They think these teams are mediocre, but with potential if things go right. And they’re not totally wrong. Also, both of these teams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the trenches. Again, I don’t think the general public watched this game. And what I saw of it was unsurprisingly sloppy. What’s wild is, I don’t think you’re going to know a lot about either of these teams until they play a team that isn’t in their same tier—only that doesn’t happen for either for two weeks. Tampa has Houston and Atlanta has Minnesota. Now, Minny might be markedly better than ATL, but it will only be McCarthy’s second start ever, his first home start. So again, I think we might be waiting to find out about both these teams for a few weeks. Which also makes sense because by say week four or five, that's when we should have a better sense of where they are with injuries and injury replacements. If you're like me, you might feel like, 'But I want to bet on the Bucs!' Which is fair, and you can, but it could end up like today which was a complete crapshoot. Tampa could have lost that game multiple times. Ditto Atlanta. Atlanta just had a stronger committment to losing today.

Houston
The Texans are the same thing. They start the year with two non-conference games. So what are we going to learn about Houston next week when they are going to host Tampa before two straight division games? Probably not a lot because would you put a lot on tape in two out of conference games immediately before two division games? Personally, I’m not sure we’re going to know anything about Houston until after their Week 3 game. Unless they can maybe hold Tampa to 13 or so points. Then maybe we can say their defense might be ready for the first third of the year? Either way, this is another game I don’t think anybody watched so I doubt you get a lot of market reaction to this team.

Philly
It's about time. Let’s talk for a second about YOUR REIGNING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. Although, the team doesn’t like to talk about it, Nick doesn’t want them talking about it, and honestly, this is not last year’s Eagles so I get it. I don’t think you’re going to get an overreaction to Philly’s opening night win, first because it feels like four weeks ago now. And second, because they won. Was it a good win? No, but when people were watching (pre-weather delay), they saw about what they expected from Philly—other than how soft the defense was in the first half. But there was no Jalen Carter so I’m pretty confident people just chalk this up to ‘Philly’s still good, they won, what’s next.’ How I can help you with Philly is this. Thanks to WINNING THE SUPER BOWL, your friend Joe was ridiculously focused on the Birds this offseason. Too much so, really. I think I can name 90% of their practice squad. That’s not healthy.

Anyway, this is a team that, defensively—was NOT ready to start the season. They have a huge hole at CB2, a new starting safety, and it’s going to take them some time to figure it out. Honestly, I didn’t like the spot for them this week at KC but for two things. One, if Worthy is out, that changes KC’s offense. Two, the Eagles just did this exact Brazil trip last year, and they were very open about how the recovery from that trip took much longer than anyone thought. They said it took weeks for them to feel right again. Now it’s KC’s turn. Add to that, Philly picked up Za'Darius Smith who was on the street for a reason, but is a huge depth addition to a DL that was exposed as criminally thin without Carter. Personally, I expected the Eagles to start slow this season. I’m not confident they win this weekend, though I like them more today than three days ago. What I would say is, expect this team to be a lot like last year’s team defensively, meaning they will probably take five or six weeks to start getting good. But when they do, they might get really good—again. Their offense, meanwhile, is ready to start the season. Their OL may be a little shaky due to injury, but if it holds up, this team should be good for 24-31+ per game even as they play some pretty good defenses here coming up in the Rams and Bucs. Teams will do what Dallas did, load up to stop Saquon, try to blitz Jalen and make him nervous. Depending on the OL, some days that might work, others, it won't. And if it doesn't work a lot, Jalen will be in the race for MVP based on his numbers.

Denver
You may get some people pulling back on Denver a little after today. But I’m also not convinced anybody watched this game. Maybe they did because they all had Denver in their Survivor pool. Or they had Denver closing out ML parlays and teasers (guilty). But I doubt they watched much more than the score on the ticker. I suffered through a lot of this game. Bo Nix sucked. BUT, as I said, I think the first two weeks of the regular season now are basically a continuation of preseason. So he’ll probably be fine. That said, he did suck. Like, Tennessee could have won this game. I’m not kidding. However, Denver’s defense was mostly as everyone advertised them to be. I think this is going to be another team that gets better as the season goes along, as long as they stay healthy. I think the value with Denver starts in Week 4. They'll be coming off the Chargers game in LA. If they lose that I think you might get a nice number with them at home for Cincy, and even the next week as they go to Philly who will be in a sandwich spot off a trip to TB and before going to the Giants. Then the Broncos get the Jets in NY, the Giants and Cowboys at home. That could be a good stretch for them.

San Fran
It’s wild I’ve waited this long to mention a team I have on a division ticket, but SF I think did just enough for people not to react too much to them—yet. The problem SF has is, they weren’t healthy coming into this game, and George Kittle went out before half and never came back. The good news for them is that so long as they have CMC (who looked good today), Trent Williams, and Purdy, their offense is still going to be balanced enough to move the ball. The other good news is they were ready to go today—at least from the standpoint of conditioning. The longer this game went on, and the more points SF kept leaving on the field, the more worried I was about backing a road favorite in a division game (don’t do that, it’s bad for your heart). But the truth is, by the fourth quarter, you could see it. They had worn Seattle down. Seattle definitely could have won this game, but that SF was able to go on the road, make a bunch of mistakes, and still wear Seattle down and survive? An impressive win. But I don't expect that to translate into an over the top overreaction. The game played like a ‘hard fought, three point divisional battle’ blah blah blah. And Kittle went down. I don’t expect to lose value on SF in the early part of the season based on this win. Which is good and bad because while I dont't think their lines over-inflate based on this win, they'll still be favored in their next three since they are at NO then home for AZ and Jax.

Seattle
Full disclosure, I am not sold on this Seattle team. I wasn’t before the season and I’m not now. And that is 100% because I believe Sam Darnold was the wrong choice for them. Again, like with Aaron Rogers, the weather is still great right now. But it won’t be for long. Especially not in Seattle. I don’t think Darnold is the right guy for this offense or this climate and if I’m wrong he’s going to steal my money week over week just as he did for IDK eight straight weeks or whatever it was with Minny. But I am going to die on the hill that it was the system in Minny that turned him around and got him paid. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense is good, but I don’t think it’s great. Honestly, I think MacDonald is remaking the Bengals in Seattle, only he doesn’t have Burrow or Chase. To me, that’s a recipe for a 9-8, 8-9 team. But, unlike the teams I mentioned that I think may take some time to come together, I think if you like Seattle, you want to get in on them now. At Pitt this week might be a tossup, but then home for NO, at AZ, home for TB (that’s a long-ass flight), at Jax (same, haha), home for the Texans. After that is their bye. And the weather turns. Personally, I like Seattle better early as opposed to late.

Indy, NE, the Jets & the Raiders
So, I’m lumping these all together because to me they’re versions of the same team, which might be super unfair to at least one (the Raiders) or maybe unfair to them all. I had a bunch of people tell me they liked the Raiders this week and I refused to listen. I didn’t see Vrabel losing a home opener. Stupid me. But I also don’t think anyone watched that game or really wants to believe either the Raiders or the Pats are good until they see it for themselves. That's why I don’t think you get a bounce one way or another on those teams from this game, predispostion to their general suckitude—which could possibly provide some value on the Raiders. I don’t know why I feel like Geno Smith is only going to provide value at home. Clearly that’s not the case, but even with a road win in an early game on the east coast, I don’t think anybody’s mind changed on the Raiders today. Which, again, may open up some value.

I do think you could see a bit of a bump, just a tiny one, for the Colts and Jets. But if so I think that’s only going to be from true degenerates which is probably not enough to really move a line and provide value in the next week or two. Personally I think Indy’s win was the result of Miami not showing up. However, after the last few years of QB redemption stories, I’m positive there are people out there who are looking for another one. And with Sam Darnold losing today, the easy answer there is Danny Dimes. And Indy’s defense was clearly ready for the season. So maybe you see some pros digging into the Colts as home dogs this weekend vs. Denver. Hell, I might tease them based on where Bo Nix is right now.

Same thing with the Jets, are they good? Probably not. Did they show up today? Hell yes. And because they showed up in a game against a team everyone pays attention to in Pittsburgh, you might see some love for them this week. Especially with Buffalo coming off a super emotional, monster comeback win. But the Jets to me are a little like Seattle. For the first few weeks you may get some interesting games from them—after all, for the first half of Justin Fields in Pittsburgh that’s exactly what you got. And their early season games should be good weather since they go to Florida twice after being at home for Buffalo this week. So maybe you get in on them early, before people start catching up to Fields as they seem to do.

Is that it? Oh no, wait, Carolina and Jax. Lord, talk about another game no one watched. Hell, I didn’t watch it. At least not after the first quarter when it was pretty obvious Jacksonville could do whatever they wanted on offense.

I don’t see much overreaction or any reaction really to either of these teams from this game. If anyone watched, once the weather delay hit they were tuned out. And it didn’t matter. Every preconceived notion about Carolina being shit and Jacksonville probably also being shit, but maybe just a tiny little bit less shit? Maybe? This scoreline does nothing to change that. There’s a slight chance that opens up some value on both teams next week though. They’re both on the road, Jax in Cincy and Carolina in Arizona. Neither matchup is terrible, they’re both catching +3.5 and +6.5 respectively. You’d be betting on bad teams, but you’d also be betting against pretty marginal teams, neither of whom really proved much of anything today. So you’d have that going for you.

You’d also be a degenerate who’s got money on both the Panthers and the Jaguars in Week 2. At that point, maybe look into going to a meeting.

Of course, if you weren’t a degenerate, would you be at CTG? And would you have even have come close to reading this whole thing?

I think not, my friend. I think not.

OK, hi for now, bye for now. And remember, don’t listen to BAR, he’s just trying to score a free reacharound. Again.

Your turn ...
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Holy crap. What else is there to cover? Hats off.
 
Good to see you, Fox, Press.

Also, I'll admit I don't know what a WEF agent is, Sammy. Is it like an position with the AEW? Can I hang out with the female wrestlers? A couple of them could really teach me a lesson or two. Preferably, more than once. Please.

Two main takeaways from tonight. Maybe three. Possibly half-baked because the game just ended.

1. All that McCarthy hype over the summer—and it was fucking relentless, btw. It was basically a PR campaign about how much they loved him, how great he was, how it's all a system in Minnesota and they won't miss a beat—yeah, all that. BULLLLLLLSHIT.

McCarthy's release is slower than a turtle jerking off. You don't need to google it, just trust me.

He had multiple balls batted down and caught from behind because he was super late getting them out. And that pick six was a combination of him throwing WAY too late and him not really having a ton of arm strength to make up for it. Now, can he get better. Sure. His TD pass was a laser, nice throw. But right now he sure looks a lot like a guy that your college team wouldn't let throw more than a dozen times a game for good reason.

2. Minnesota won this game because Brian Flores on defense, and the Minny OL on offense, took over. In the second half, the reason McCarthy could finally have time to throw was purely because that OL was opening holes so big for the running game, McCarthy was always ahead of the sticks. Pretty quickly, Chicago clearly realized that they were going to lose if they didn't stop the run—and O'Connell's not stupid, he knew exactly what that would do for the passing game.

In other words, if you struggle against the run, Minnesota will probably beat you because McCarthy won't need to throw the ball 20 times. They'll just run for six yards a carry and that will be that.

On the other side of the ball, Flores is just a great DC. This may be his last year there too as he might get another HC gig even after the mess in Miami. But if you give Flores enough time, he'll figure you out. He also knows Ben Johnson. So while he might have only been introduced to good Caleb Williams tonight, by the second half, he figured out what Johnson wanted to do with him and that was about all she wrote. It was pretty impressive, tbh.

3. In the first half all I could think was, 'Man, I wonder what Justin Fields would look like with Ben Johnson as his HC.' However, that's not really fair, Chicago's OL was one of the worst in the league for Fields so you'd have to bring Fields in now, etc. Anyway, this is a bad loss for Chicago, and we saw what a bad loss can do to that team last year after the Washington Hail Mary. But this is week one. And even though it's a division loss, I think there's a ton for Johnson and Williams to build on from that first half.

Williams has a long way to go, but his arm strength is real and his legs are real. There will probably be some growing pains, but Chicago may be a version of what's been advertised this year. Which is ... better! Also, fun! But maybe not, playoffs! Or Division.

Chicago's defense was getting absolutely mauled in the second half and you know teams will try to replicate that. Likewise, their OL seemed like it got worn down as the game went on. And if you're bad in the trenches in today's NFL, you're in for a long year.

What does this mean for next week?

I think you get an overreaction on Minnesota. Atlanta wasn't impressive, they lost a game no one watched and all anybody saw was Koo shanking a kick to tie the game. Meanwhile, everyone saw Minnesota tonight so that line runs all the way up to -6 I think there's only one way you can play it—if you play it.

The problem with Atlanta is, they made a concerted effort to improve their DL this offseason and against Tampa, who had injury issues on the OL, that DL couldn't do much. So, if Minnesota's OL is going to show up next week like they did tonight, you might need a backdoor cover. Not great, although Penix looks like a guy who can and will deliver those this year.

I don't know if this moves the Lions/Bears number much, at least the spread. Maybe it moves the total? But the Lions looked like shit, and the Bears threw up a game they should have won. If this number stays around -4.5 that feels right. Although, like I said above, I have no interest in laying a number with the Lions right now against anyone.
 
pressitup said:
primetime is 2-1 to the over so far
tonight?
I took under
will be interesting if things flip from last yr
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I'd argue this was kind of a weird, shitty beat. Which I say as someone who lost on the over in the Philly/Dallas game last Thursday. Division unders in week one are historically solid. This was a dead under game early and only kind of became an over because Chicago let the wheels fall off. IMO, the under was the right read here, just a bad result.
 
what a massive fuck job by the Bears coaching staff tonight. Had no business losing that game. Some of the play calling and clock management was ridiculous. I remember someone here saying they had no faith in Ben Johnson as a head coach. I can’t remember who though. Obviously it’s just one game but damn…
 
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