Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I think this week finally helped me pinpoint why the NFL has gotten so much more difficult in recent years—at least for me. As it's become a more QB-centric league, it has really made the shorter life-cycle of QBs not only more important, but teams less consistent overall.
Because the whole forum follows the Cleveland Football Browns so closely, I think they're as good an example of this as anyone.
Think of this for a second, the Browns start off the year with Brandon Weeden and after two weeks they're miserable. Their passing game is downright dog-shit and all that hype about them contending for the division title (albeit in a bad division) is washed away and they're re-cast as bottom feeders.
The vast majority of this, by the way, is because of their QB play. And you know this in large part because in that second week, they lose their QB to a minor injury. The very next week, they get a WR back with a new QB throwing to him and they look great on offense. And this is after they throw away arguably one of the better running backs in the conference.
My point is this, the lack of internal consistency makes it damn near impossible to 'cap the team against anybody else because they themselves are a moving target.
And it's hardly just one team.
Now Buffalo, who started the season with a rookie QB, will have a new QB next week. Tenny had a new QB today, Oakland had a new one last week. The Eagles might as well flip a coin to see if Vick will make it from game to game. And it's more than just week to week, it's turnover every year. Remember that Colin Kapernick wasn't even the starter in SF until, I believe, Week 10 last year.
The constant churn of QBs, combined with the QB being so much the focus, I think makes it harder to read teams generally before you even begin to cap them.
Maybe that's me, but I feel like this is one of the biggest reasons why the NFL has become more difficult. In part because you start with so few options weekly anyway. It's not college with a big board, you're looking at a dozen or so games. Some of those are going to have lines that make the game unattractive. Combine that with teams whose offense is unpredictable because of who's running it and ... hello losing tickets.
Anyway, to the games.
The Browns are 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North. I'm pretty confident this means that, somewhere, Tip is getting laid and Steed may finally have met a man who'll respect him in the morning. It's like a double rainbow, only, you know, of penetration. Ah, love ...
Of course, now the Browns will change QBs again. So the question is, will they suck again? I want to say no, but I can't guarantee it.
Were I Brandon Weeden I'd probably take the hint that I'd just have lost my job and quite possibly my NFL career but for Steny Hoyer tearing his ACL and take that opportunity to throw it around the yard because his run game is gone and Josh Gordon is back. HOWEVER, Hoyer is done for the year, and Cleveland hasn't made any move toward Josh Freeman or make any move of substance (Tyler Thigpen anbody). So maybe Weeden just falls back into where he was to start the year, which would be bad for all involved.
The Bills meanwhile, have done—for three weeks—exactly what we said in this thread they would do weeks ago. Consistently given up 20+ a game.
But how do you cap their games going forward not knowing what you're going to get from their offense?
All right, to games that should be—should be—somewhat straight forward. The Chicago Bears.
What the hell happened here? Every time I checked in on this game one of two things was going on. One, New Orleans was moving the ball. Two, the Bears were going nowhere.
I liked the spot for the Bears, I didn't like the spot for the Saints. It's not like the Bears turned the ball over all day. I don't get it. Why and how did NO just own this team today?
What does this say about the Bears?
And do we now believe in Rob Ryan and that Saints defense?
How do you go into Chicago, coming out of MNF, and essentially dominate the game without getting credit? You can't. You have to start talking about NO as legit.
I bring this game up first because this game, to me, was one of the most surprising today.
The game I probably paid the most attention to was the Birds game. Essentially, Joe watched the Giants so you didn't have to. You're welcome, America.
Here's what you need to know, the Eagles' secondary, if you didn't know it, is awful. It's slow and you can beat them over the top. It's hard to watch. If the Giants weren't banged up and were playing on the same page they'd have won this game by 10. But they aren't and they're not. They're a mess.
I don't see how you bet the Giants at all right now.
I also don't see how you bet the Jags right now, but I mean, if you do you are a not only a lonely, lonely person, but you're going to have to start a thread about how and why you would even think about it.
A spot play today for me that I liked, and that worked out roughly how I expected, was Cincy.
I lost with them in Cleveland last week but came back to them today. But what surprised me today is how neither team really put points on the board. I feel, I guess wrongly, that you can score on Cincy (this had to be skewed by that GB game). But why can't Cincy put up 20 points any more? What's going on?
What bothered me about Cincy is how they tried so desperately to give that game away late. Right now I have to put Dalton in the Matt Schaub category. He has the talent to throw to, both out wide and out of the backfield. And yet, the guy's putting up like 13 a game in the last two weeks. What the hell is with him right now?
With New England, at least for me, this was playing against what they did last week. Last week was one of those Brady games where he lights it up, on the road. Which is great—except when, like me, you bet the other side—but it was on the road, on MNF, tough spot for the Pats today. They'll get healthier and be fine.
Honestly, I think I might have more faith in them going forward than in Cincy despite the results from today.
Let's finish off the AFC North. I have no faith in the Blackbirds. Good win, really good road win, and they're a good character team. Meaning, I don't expect them to quit, but I still think they're rebuilding this year. And if they're playing a suspect defense—or a defense like Miami's that's missing a star—they might be worth a look if the number's good. Because Ray Rice is still good enough that he's going to open up the passing game.
What I saw none of today, however, were the Fish. Shark or anybody who watched this game want to tell us what we should know Miami right now?
Actually, the more I think about today the more it seems like spots really won out (other than in Chicago, that is). Think about Seattle. First off, I personally don't want to believe in Pete Carroll. But I feel like I'm wrong. I feel like he's making me believe in him whether I want to or not. That Seattle team is really good.
And, something not to ignore, Seattle travels well. That's so huge.
Thing is, today was a bad spot for Seattle and they still almost won. So impressive.
Meanwhile the Colts win again and the Trent Richardson pick gets higher and higher in the draft. I'm just sayin'. I've said it before, but I'll say it again, I like Andrew Luck. And this offense is solid. There's no way around it.
The thing that bothers me most about the Titans is that I was just getting to the point where I really liked this team. And then they lose Locker. And then Fitzy looks awful for half the game as his replacement. Again, new QB ... what the hell do you do with this team.
Anybody?
Meanwhile, Kansas City is who we think they are. Now, given Andy Reid being Andy Reid and given that their QB is Alex Smith, there's a real possibility they fade. But right now they're 5-0 and you have to respect it.
And I kind of think you have to look to bet it.
Another bad spot today? Detroit. Coming into Lambeau and getting GB after a bye. Here's the funny thing, last week I say I don't think you can put too much on Chicago's loss in Detroit. And now, today, I'm going to say that I don't think you should put too much into Detroit losing to GB today.
Let's see how that works out with Detroit heading to Cleveland.
Carolina/Arizona. Funny thing is, I had AZ in a contest play today, but could you really pick two teams that are more like each other right now? No, obviously Carson Palmer isn't $Cam Newton. But these two teams are steamrolling toward 6-10. It's like waiting for the sun to rise or BAR to rub one out in the bathroom on a lazy Saturday afternoon. It's going to fucking happen.
I mean, no offense to fans of those teams, but how the hell do you get excited about that game? Or, really, those teams?
Enough of that nonsense, let's do the TL;DR version:
Cleveland: No Steny Hoyer, will their offense shutdown now that Weeden is back in charge?
Buffalo: Manuel looked like the only thing holding them together before. Now what the hell do they do?
Indy: Better than all the bad teams, and when they put it together, they can beat good teams—oh, and by the way, they're 2-0 against SF & Seattle.
Seattle: This team is really good. And they travel well. And they might be the best home team in football.
Denver: Maybe the best offense since the Patriots team that couldn't stop scoring. They've played some terrible defenses, but nobody seems remotely able to stop them.
Dallas: Until further notice: When Homo throws more than they run, they'll lose.
Miami: Man, I don't know. I didn't believe in them early & they proved me wrong. Was it all about Wake?
Baltimore: Better than bad teams, balanced on offense, but tough to bet vs. good teams.
Cincy: They look like they know what they're doing on defense. Dalton though seems like he's still confused even though he has weapons.
KC: They look legit. They just do.
Tenny: They looked legit, then they lost their QB.
Philly: Their defense is dog-shit. But Foles seemed like he could run their offense just as well as Vick—minus the designed runs.
NYG: Terrible. They're not whole and they're not playing like it. Take away Cruz and that team might lose to Jacksonville.
Jax: How do we relegate teams from the NFL to the BCS?
St. Louis: If we relegate Jax, would St. Louis take their place? Probably.
NO: Have to be considered top tier and, surprisingly, largely based on their defense. That and Jimmy Graham. That guy's Jordan Cameron-esque.
Carolina: It's all falling apart.
Arizona: It's mostly falling apart, but at least Carson Palmer knows what the endzone looks like.
San Fran: Remember when there was an OMG, WOMEN & CHILDREN FIRST CRISIS in SF? Yeah, that's over. They're good.
Houston: They're like watching a sweater unravel. Slowly. But it's definitely happening.
San Diego: They haven't started yet tonight, but I have this suspicion that their offense might be for real—and word is that the unsung story from last week's win was that T'eo actually played really well in his first game of the year.
Oakland: PLEASE FIND A QUARTERBACK
The bye week teams from this week.
Washington: Can they adjust coming out of the break or do they just suck?
Tampa Bay: Do they quit? Probably not next week, they probably give it one go without Freeman in the room, but if they lose, at home, to Philly, then do they quit?
Pittsburgh: It's a mess here, too. But they're a smart organization, they'll be back. After they go 5-11 this year.
Minny: Pthpt, raise your hands if you have faith in this team? Before you answer, think of their QB and their defense.
That's what I've got for now.
Talk to me, Goose. Talk to me.
99 points. Are you kidding me? Funniest thing about it, too, I didn't watch it. Really because I didn't bet it.
To bring another thread into this one, tough to set a Den/Jax line under 30 at this point. They still may, but how could you possibly bet on Jacksonville next week.
Because the whole forum follows the Cleveland Football Browns so closely, I think they're as good an example of this as anyone.
Think of this for a second, the Browns start off the year with Brandon Weeden and after two weeks they're miserable. Their passing game is downright dog-shit and all that hype about them contending for the division title (albeit in a bad division) is washed away and they're re-cast as bottom feeders.
The vast majority of this, by the way, is because of their QB play. And you know this in large part because in that second week, they lose their QB to a minor injury. The very next week, they get a WR back with a new QB throwing to him and they look great on offense. And this is after they throw away arguably one of the better running backs in the conference.
My point is this, the lack of internal consistency makes it damn near impossible to 'cap the team against anybody else because they themselves are a moving target.
And it's hardly just one team.
Now Buffalo, who started the season with a rookie QB, will have a new QB next week. Tenny had a new QB today, Oakland had a new one last week. The Eagles might as well flip a coin to see if Vick will make it from game to game. And it's more than just week to week, it's turnover every year. Remember that Colin Kapernick wasn't even the starter in SF until, I believe, Week 10 last year.
The constant churn of QBs, combined with the QB being so much the focus, I think makes it harder to read teams generally before you even begin to cap them.
Maybe that's me, but I feel like this is one of the biggest reasons why the NFL has become more difficult. In part because you start with so few options weekly anyway. It's not college with a big board, you're looking at a dozen or so games. Some of those are going to have lines that make the game unattractive. Combine that with teams whose offense is unpredictable because of who's running it and ... hello losing tickets.
Anyway, to the games.
The Browns are 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North. I'm pretty confident this means that, somewhere, Tip is getting laid and Steed may finally have met a man who'll respect him in the morning. It's like a double rainbow, only, you know, of penetration. Ah, love ...
Of course, now the Browns will change QBs again. So the question is, will they suck again? I want to say no, but I can't guarantee it.
Were I Brandon Weeden I'd probably take the hint that I'd just have lost my job and quite possibly my NFL career but for Steny Hoyer tearing his ACL and take that opportunity to throw it around the yard because his run game is gone and Josh Gordon is back. HOWEVER, Hoyer is done for the year, and Cleveland hasn't made any move toward Josh Freeman or make any move of substance (Tyler Thigpen anbody). So maybe Weeden just falls back into where he was to start the year, which would be bad for all involved.
The Bills meanwhile, have done—for three weeks—exactly what we said in this thread they would do weeks ago. Consistently given up 20+ a game.
But how do you cap their games going forward not knowing what you're going to get from their offense?
All right, to games that should be—should be—somewhat straight forward. The Chicago Bears.
What the hell happened here? Every time I checked in on this game one of two things was going on. One, New Orleans was moving the ball. Two, the Bears were going nowhere.
I liked the spot for the Bears, I didn't like the spot for the Saints. It's not like the Bears turned the ball over all day. I don't get it. Why and how did NO just own this team today?
What does this say about the Bears?
And do we now believe in Rob Ryan and that Saints defense?
How do you go into Chicago, coming out of MNF, and essentially dominate the game without getting credit? You can't. You have to start talking about NO as legit.
I bring this game up first because this game, to me, was one of the most surprising today.
The game I probably paid the most attention to was the Birds game. Essentially, Joe watched the Giants so you didn't have to. You're welcome, America.
Here's what you need to know, the Eagles' secondary, if you didn't know it, is awful. It's slow and you can beat them over the top. It's hard to watch. If the Giants weren't banged up and were playing on the same page they'd have won this game by 10. But they aren't and they're not. They're a mess.
I don't see how you bet the Giants at all right now.
I also don't see how you bet the Jags right now, but I mean, if you do you are a not only a lonely, lonely person, but you're going to have to start a thread about how and why you would even think about it.
A spot play today for me that I liked, and that worked out roughly how I expected, was Cincy.
I lost with them in Cleveland last week but came back to them today. But what surprised me today is how neither team really put points on the board. I feel, I guess wrongly, that you can score on Cincy (this had to be skewed by that GB game). But why can't Cincy put up 20 points any more? What's going on?
What bothered me about Cincy is how they tried so desperately to give that game away late. Right now I have to put Dalton in the Matt Schaub category. He has the talent to throw to, both out wide and out of the backfield. And yet, the guy's putting up like 13 a game in the last two weeks. What the hell is with him right now?
With New England, at least for me, this was playing against what they did last week. Last week was one of those Brady games where he lights it up, on the road. Which is great—except when, like me, you bet the other side—but it was on the road, on MNF, tough spot for the Pats today. They'll get healthier and be fine.
Honestly, I think I might have more faith in them going forward than in Cincy despite the results from today.
Let's finish off the AFC North. I have no faith in the Blackbirds. Good win, really good road win, and they're a good character team. Meaning, I don't expect them to quit, but I still think they're rebuilding this year. And if they're playing a suspect defense—or a defense like Miami's that's missing a star—they might be worth a look if the number's good. Because Ray Rice is still good enough that he's going to open up the passing game.
What I saw none of today, however, were the Fish. Shark or anybody who watched this game want to tell us what we should know Miami right now?
Actually, the more I think about today the more it seems like spots really won out (other than in Chicago, that is). Think about Seattle. First off, I personally don't want to believe in Pete Carroll. But I feel like I'm wrong. I feel like he's making me believe in him whether I want to or not. That Seattle team is really good.
And, something not to ignore, Seattle travels well. That's so huge.
Thing is, today was a bad spot for Seattle and they still almost won. So impressive.
Meanwhile the Colts win again and the Trent Richardson pick gets higher and higher in the draft. I'm just sayin'. I've said it before, but I'll say it again, I like Andrew Luck. And this offense is solid. There's no way around it.
The thing that bothers me most about the Titans is that I was just getting to the point where I really liked this team. And then they lose Locker. And then Fitzy looks awful for half the game as his replacement. Again, new QB ... what the hell do you do with this team.
Anybody?
Meanwhile, Kansas City is who we think they are. Now, given Andy Reid being Andy Reid and given that their QB is Alex Smith, there's a real possibility they fade. But right now they're 5-0 and you have to respect it.
And I kind of think you have to look to bet it.
Another bad spot today? Detroit. Coming into Lambeau and getting GB after a bye. Here's the funny thing, last week I say I don't think you can put too much on Chicago's loss in Detroit. And now, today, I'm going to say that I don't think you should put too much into Detroit losing to GB today.
Let's see how that works out with Detroit heading to Cleveland.
Carolina/Arizona. Funny thing is, I had AZ in a contest play today, but could you really pick two teams that are more like each other right now? No, obviously Carson Palmer isn't $Cam Newton. But these two teams are steamrolling toward 6-10. It's like waiting for the sun to rise or BAR to rub one out in the bathroom on a lazy Saturday afternoon. It's going to fucking happen.
I mean, no offense to fans of those teams, but how the hell do you get excited about that game? Or, really, those teams?
Enough of that nonsense, let's do the TL;DR version:
Cleveland: No Steny Hoyer, will their offense shutdown now that Weeden is back in charge?
Buffalo: Manuel looked like the only thing holding them together before. Now what the hell do they do?
Indy: Better than all the bad teams, and when they put it together, they can beat good teams—oh, and by the way, they're 2-0 against SF & Seattle.
Seattle: This team is really good. And they travel well. And they might be the best home team in football.
Denver: Maybe the best offense since the Patriots team that couldn't stop scoring. They've played some terrible defenses, but nobody seems remotely able to stop them.
Dallas: Until further notice: When Homo throws more than they run, they'll lose.
Miami: Man, I don't know. I didn't believe in them early & they proved me wrong. Was it all about Wake?
Baltimore: Better than bad teams, balanced on offense, but tough to bet vs. good teams.
Cincy: They look like they know what they're doing on defense. Dalton though seems like he's still confused even though he has weapons.
KC: They look legit. They just do.
Tenny: They looked legit, then they lost their QB.
Philly: Their defense is dog-shit. But Foles seemed like he could run their offense just as well as Vick—minus the designed runs.
NYG: Terrible. They're not whole and they're not playing like it. Take away Cruz and that team might lose to Jacksonville.
Jax: How do we relegate teams from the NFL to the BCS?
St. Louis: If we relegate Jax, would St. Louis take their place? Probably.
NO: Have to be considered top tier and, surprisingly, largely based on their defense. That and Jimmy Graham. That guy's Jordan Cameron-esque.
Carolina: It's all falling apart.
Arizona: It's mostly falling apart, but at least Carson Palmer knows what the endzone looks like.
San Fran: Remember when there was an OMG, WOMEN & CHILDREN FIRST CRISIS in SF? Yeah, that's over. They're good.
Houston: They're like watching a sweater unravel. Slowly. But it's definitely happening.
San Diego: They haven't started yet tonight, but I have this suspicion that their offense might be for real—and word is that the unsung story from last week's win was that T'eo actually played really well in his first game of the year.
Oakland: PLEASE FIND A QUARTERBACK
The bye week teams from this week.
Washington: Can they adjust coming out of the break or do they just suck?
Tampa Bay: Do they quit? Probably not next week, they probably give it one go without Freeman in the room, but if they lose, at home, to Philly, then do they quit?
Pittsburgh: It's a mess here, too. But they're a smart organization, they'll be back. After they go 5-11 this year.
Minny: Pthpt, raise your hands if you have faith in this team? Before you answer, think of their QB and their defense.
That's what I've got for now.
Talk to me, Goose. Talk to me.
99 points. Are you kidding me? Funniest thing about it, too, I didn't watch it. Really because I didn't bet it.
To bring another thread into this one, tough to set a Den/Jax line under 30 at this point. They still may, but how could you possibly bet on Jacksonville next week.
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