Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Joe actually watched football for the first time in a few weeks this weekend. It just worked out that way. So did his teaser on the Pack/Black birds. Woohoo, thank you Gambling Gods.
OK, what did we see. And by 'we' I mean me.
I find Houston to be really, really predictable right now. Not exactly in the plays they'll run, but what you'll get from them at the end of the game.
Right now Houston is good for 20 points. Maybe 24 or so if they can get some turnovers. Why does this matter? Because in the first half of the season they were good for 30 points. Or at least they should have been from week to week.
There was a point yesterday when they were up like 9-7, then they failed to put any points up right before half.
In the first half of the season that wouldn't have been 9, it would have been 17 at least, maybe 20.
They're not cashing in like the team they were and I don't think you can bet them to be that 30 point team any more—which I think the line in that game reflected. What's sort of weird about that to me is, if you watched the game, Houston moved the ball really well between the 20s.
They just couldn't finish—just like their last six weeks have been.
More on how I think that affects Houston in NE in a minute, but first one thing on Cincy.
Does anybody really think Marvin Lewis is anything but a .500 coach? Cincy was running well yesterday. BJGE averaged over 5.5 yards per carry. And how many times did he get the ball? Oh, you know, eleven. Ugh.
Gresham had, I believe one or no catches in the second half. Down six the Bengals had zero urgency when they got the ball back with 6:30 to go. Spread it out, work the middle of the field because Houston's LBs are gone and at the very least you can cut it to 3 before the two minute warning with all your timeouts. But no dice.
Jump can come correct me, but I think it's consistent with the Bengals and it's more apparent in the postseason, their coaching costs them points every week. Not a ton, but at least three, every game.
In Green Bay, I think it's hard to take a lot from that win. It was a terrible spot for Minny made all the worse when they have to pull Ponder at the 11th hour. Just a nightmare spot.
That said, Green Bay getting people back for them right now is huge. HUGE.
I am not crazy about their matchup this week, I liked their chances at Atlanta much better—but if they get by SF that's where I expect them to be so we can jump off that bridge then.
Speaking of Atlanta, I'm going to stay in the NFC because I have more to say about the AFC than Seabags/Dirty Birds.
Seattle played really strong today, again it was kind of the game everybody expected save the start, but they're a much tougher team now than they've probably been at any time in the last 10 years. Yes, I'm including their SB year.
Nobody has been afraid of Seattle outside of Seattle in a long time. But this team beats you up pretty good, it's pretty impressive.
Thing is, I hate their matchup next week. It looks like they may lose Clemmons on the DL, and even if he's only slowed, Wash ran well on them. I think Atlanta can spread them out and move the ball. It's also a big game for Atlanta. They need a playoff win to prove they're not a paper tiger as a franchise.
Meanwhile, yes, obviously it's a big game for Seattle as it's the playoffs, but today was one of those emotionally exhausting games, not to mention the pounding they took. Now they get on a plane, fly across the country. Then they get back on a plane, fly back across the country to play a 10am pacific time game. I hate this spot for the Seahags. I just hate it.
Onto the Black Birds.
I realized during this game, not just because I had money on B'more, that I want this team to do well in the playoffs this year.
This is really hard for me being a Browns fan and seeing that fucking 'Art' thing on their jerseys and field. He's dead and I've (mostly) forgiven him because he's gone and it's not healthy to hold grudges forever. But there's still a part of me that would like to see both him and that franchise get ass-raped with a broomstick. Repeatedly.
But I've liked Ray Rice since Rutgers, and I've always liked Boldin. He's just such a stud. When he went to the Black Birds instead of the Birds Birds a small piece of my heart wept.
All that said, this score was deceiving and Baltimore is still not that good.
Look at the yardage from today's game. Indy had over 400 yards of offense.
Now the temptation will be to say, 'well, they were down 24-9 so Luck was throwing the ball and that total is inflated.'
But if you watched the game you know that isn't true. Indy moved the ball well on Baltimore all day. Honestly, as shaky as Luck has been on the road, Indy moved it much better than I thought they would.
Not only that, take away the true beast of a performance Boldin had today and this is a six point, maybe three point game.
People will see that TD and think it was amazing, because he caught both the ball and the guy's arm and controlled them both to the ground. But don't forget about the over the shoulder catch on the sidelines where Flacco actually over-threw Boldin and he found a 5th gear to go get that ball.
That catch is so difficult to make. And those were only two of the tough catches he made today—and here's my point. As good as that guy is, you can't essentially carry your QB every week. Just ask Megatron.
Today was an incredibly complete, incredibly emotional game from the Ravens. Yet they still had to grind it out vs. a team they are honestly significantly better than.
My point: All that sets up Peyton to just kill this team next week.
The downside: This line sucks balls.
During the 2nd half in my head I put Broncos/Colts at a -7.5. Maybe a -9. I put Broncos/Ravens at -6.5/7 at worst. Mostly based on their meeting earlier and Denver having HFA.
But -9???
This has to be for teasers and the like. Or something.
I hate, hate, hate this number. It's like Peyton is now getting that Farve 3 tacked on to his spreads simply because he's starting. All this probably means Denver covers it with ease, but I hate the number. I wanted a mistake here the other way from the linesmakers, not this way.
Why will they probably cover it? Again, if you watched this game—or really the Ravens' season—you saw something pretty dramatic out there. Their defense is old. Ray Lewis, who you kind of have to root for right now, (unless, you know, you're still hung up on the fact that he essentially let a murderer go free), he looked old. He made tackles, yes. His instincts are still there, yes, but to me his speed isn't. And he's not alone.
And if Andrew Luck can work the middle of the field on Baltimore, Manning with two weeks to prepare is going to put it in their pooper with no vaseline for three plus hours.
An aside, the good news for Indy is that if they draft right this year, shore up some of their weaknesses, it's hard to see them not threatening nine-plus wins for years to come barring injury. Luck really is just that good.
My first, early, probably wrong reads on next week are that you have to look at the dogs. Bet 'em all blind and you probably go 2-2 at worst with at least one ML win.
This weekend favorites were 4-0 ATS and the under was 4-0.
Next week that has to balance out because BetCrimes' head will explode if it doesn't.
I like Houston a lot next week. I have no idea what to do with the total because I think one of two things happens. Either Schaub goes all shootout with Brady and that thing ends 34-31 or the Texans man up and they run Foster down NE's throat all day to keep Brady off the field and the game ends 23-17, 20-17, 24-17, something like that.
Either way, I think I may have to do a Houston spread/ML split here. I just feel it sets up really well for them.
What scares me is that I like both Atlanta and Denver to win the game, so betting those dogs blind may be tough for me.
GB, though, I can see it. Last week I didn't like 'em in SF, but if they are getting healthy, it's still Kap's first dance in the playoffs. Against GB's defense I think that's going to matter.
That really should be the game of the week if both teams play to their potential.
But, again, that's just me. What about you, what did you see?
OK, what did we see. And by 'we' I mean me.
I find Houston to be really, really predictable right now. Not exactly in the plays they'll run, but what you'll get from them at the end of the game.
Right now Houston is good for 20 points. Maybe 24 or so if they can get some turnovers. Why does this matter? Because in the first half of the season they were good for 30 points. Or at least they should have been from week to week.
There was a point yesterday when they were up like 9-7, then they failed to put any points up right before half.
In the first half of the season that wouldn't have been 9, it would have been 17 at least, maybe 20.
They're not cashing in like the team they were and I don't think you can bet them to be that 30 point team any more—which I think the line in that game reflected. What's sort of weird about that to me is, if you watched the game, Houston moved the ball really well between the 20s.
They just couldn't finish—just like their last six weeks have been.
More on how I think that affects Houston in NE in a minute, but first one thing on Cincy.
Does anybody really think Marvin Lewis is anything but a .500 coach? Cincy was running well yesterday. BJGE averaged over 5.5 yards per carry. And how many times did he get the ball? Oh, you know, eleven. Ugh.
Gresham had, I believe one or no catches in the second half. Down six the Bengals had zero urgency when they got the ball back with 6:30 to go. Spread it out, work the middle of the field because Houston's LBs are gone and at the very least you can cut it to 3 before the two minute warning with all your timeouts. But no dice.
Jump can come correct me, but I think it's consistent with the Bengals and it's more apparent in the postseason, their coaching costs them points every week. Not a ton, but at least three, every game.
In Green Bay, I think it's hard to take a lot from that win. It was a terrible spot for Minny made all the worse when they have to pull Ponder at the 11th hour. Just a nightmare spot.
That said, Green Bay getting people back for them right now is huge. HUGE.
I am not crazy about their matchup this week, I liked their chances at Atlanta much better—but if they get by SF that's where I expect them to be so we can jump off that bridge then.
Speaking of Atlanta, I'm going to stay in the NFC because I have more to say about the AFC than Seabags/Dirty Birds.
Seattle played really strong today, again it was kind of the game everybody expected save the start, but they're a much tougher team now than they've probably been at any time in the last 10 years. Yes, I'm including their SB year.
Nobody has been afraid of Seattle outside of Seattle in a long time. But this team beats you up pretty good, it's pretty impressive.
Thing is, I hate their matchup next week. It looks like they may lose Clemmons on the DL, and even if he's only slowed, Wash ran well on them. I think Atlanta can spread them out and move the ball. It's also a big game for Atlanta. They need a playoff win to prove they're not a paper tiger as a franchise.
Meanwhile, yes, obviously it's a big game for Seattle as it's the playoffs, but today was one of those emotionally exhausting games, not to mention the pounding they took. Now they get on a plane, fly across the country. Then they get back on a plane, fly back across the country to play a 10am pacific time game. I hate this spot for the Seahags. I just hate it.
Onto the Black Birds.
I realized during this game, not just because I had money on B'more, that I want this team to do well in the playoffs this year.
This is really hard for me being a Browns fan and seeing that fucking 'Art' thing on their jerseys and field. He's dead and I've (mostly) forgiven him because he's gone and it's not healthy to hold grudges forever. But there's still a part of me that would like to see both him and that franchise get ass-raped with a broomstick. Repeatedly.
But I've liked Ray Rice since Rutgers, and I've always liked Boldin. He's just such a stud. When he went to the Black Birds instead of the Birds Birds a small piece of my heart wept.
All that said, this score was deceiving and Baltimore is still not that good.
Look at the yardage from today's game. Indy had over 400 yards of offense.
Now the temptation will be to say, 'well, they were down 24-9 so Luck was throwing the ball and that total is inflated.'
But if you watched the game you know that isn't true. Indy moved the ball well on Baltimore all day. Honestly, as shaky as Luck has been on the road, Indy moved it much better than I thought they would.
Not only that, take away the true beast of a performance Boldin had today and this is a six point, maybe three point game.
People will see that TD and think it was amazing, because he caught both the ball and the guy's arm and controlled them both to the ground. But don't forget about the over the shoulder catch on the sidelines where Flacco actually over-threw Boldin and he found a 5th gear to go get that ball.
That catch is so difficult to make. And those were only two of the tough catches he made today—and here's my point. As good as that guy is, you can't essentially carry your QB every week. Just ask Megatron.
Today was an incredibly complete, incredibly emotional game from the Ravens. Yet they still had to grind it out vs. a team they are honestly significantly better than.
My point: All that sets up Peyton to just kill this team next week.
The downside: This line sucks balls.
During the 2nd half in my head I put Broncos/Colts at a -7.5. Maybe a -9. I put Broncos/Ravens at -6.5/7 at worst. Mostly based on their meeting earlier and Denver having HFA.
But -9???
This has to be for teasers and the like. Or something.
I hate, hate, hate this number. It's like Peyton is now getting that Farve 3 tacked on to his spreads simply because he's starting. All this probably means Denver covers it with ease, but I hate the number. I wanted a mistake here the other way from the linesmakers, not this way.
Why will they probably cover it? Again, if you watched this game—or really the Ravens' season—you saw something pretty dramatic out there. Their defense is old. Ray Lewis, who you kind of have to root for right now, (unless, you know, you're still hung up on the fact that he essentially let a murderer go free), he looked old. He made tackles, yes. His instincts are still there, yes, but to me his speed isn't. And he's not alone.
And if Andrew Luck can work the middle of the field on Baltimore, Manning with two weeks to prepare is going to put it in their pooper with no vaseline for three plus hours.
An aside, the good news for Indy is that if they draft right this year, shore up some of their weaknesses, it's hard to see them not threatening nine-plus wins for years to come barring injury. Luck really is just that good.
My first, early, probably wrong reads on next week are that you have to look at the dogs. Bet 'em all blind and you probably go 2-2 at worst with at least one ML win.
This weekend favorites were 4-0 ATS and the under was 4-0.
Next week that has to balance out because BetCrimes' head will explode if it doesn't.
I like Houston a lot next week. I have no idea what to do with the total because I think one of two things happens. Either Schaub goes all shootout with Brady and that thing ends 34-31 or the Texans man up and they run Foster down NE's throat all day to keep Brady off the field and the game ends 23-17, 20-17, 24-17, something like that.
Either way, I think I may have to do a Houston spread/ML split here. I just feel it sets up really well for them.
What scares me is that I like both Atlanta and Denver to win the game, so betting those dogs blind may be tough for me.
GB, though, I can see it. Last week I didn't like 'em in SF, but if they are getting healthy, it's still Kap's first dance in the playoffs. Against GB's defense I think that's going to matter.
That really should be the game of the week if both teams play to their potential.
But, again, that's just me. What about you, what did you see?
