So the Pats line is 4.5 C Gold

  • Thread starter Thread starter Supersav
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Thats interesting.

Basically the vegas power ratings BEFORE the MNF game had this game as a 4.5 and they made NO adjustment afterwards.

See Gold. We were both wrong./ I said my number and you said yours. The thing is like I said they didn't overreact to one performance.
 
This line was out at some books on Saturday...

heres the movement...




<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=component_head vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD noWrap>STRATOSPHERE LINE MOVEMENTS </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=rt_railbox_border2 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0_sub vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD noWrap align=left width="15%" colSpan=2></TD><TD noWrap align=middle width="17%" colSpan=2>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap align=middle width="17%" colSpan=2>Spread</TD><TD noWrap align=middle width="17%" colSpan=2>Total</TD><TD noWrap align=middle width="17%" colSpan=2>1st Half</TD><TD noWrap align=middle width="17%" colSpan=2>2nd Half</TD></TR><TR class=bg0_sub vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Date</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Time</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Fav</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Dog</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Fav</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Dog</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Over</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Under</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Fav</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Dog</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Fav</TD><TD noWrap align=middle>Dog</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/07</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>8:03pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE-2.5 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL+2.5 +110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/07</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>8:15pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE-3.0 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL+3.0 +110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/07</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>8:19pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE-3.0 -125 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL+3.0 +125 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/07</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>8:24pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE-3.5 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL+3.5 +110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap></TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/08</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>1:19am</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DALXX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWEXX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>XX </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/09</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>10:42am</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE-3.5 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL+3.5 +110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>52.0 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>52.0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Basically the vegas power ratings BEFORE the MNF game had this game as a 4.5 and they made NO adjustment afterwards.

That's what's interesting to me.

Like I said last night, 4.5 was what I thought it should be but I didn't think they'd put it there after what happened last night when they could just as easily put out a six and probably get the same action.

But apparently they adjusted 'before' the game if you look at that Stratosphere movement. So their range was already set.

If Dallas would have blown Buffalo out they would have probably been that +2.5, if not the worst was going to be 4.5.
 
As far as being driven up, I'm not sure it will be. Because there's basically no practical difference between 4.5 and 5 or even 5.5. And I have trouble seeing this move a point and a half to a number that might really matter.
 
I think there will will plenty of interest in the home dog (+5).. That is my lean right now. Doubt it gets to 6 but I'll wait anyway..
 
I see the line at 5.5 at Bodog with more people on the Patriots.

Does anybody want to bet that at least one book has that line touch +6?

last night somebody was saying the line would be Dallas +1, or 2.

I was saying that ...
Dallas +3 was impossible
Dallas +3.5 was improbable
Dallas +4 still seemed low
Then you get that gray area
Dallas +6 might sound a little high to some peeps, but just think about all the public out there just waiting to jump on the Patriots.

If anybody wants to bet, I'd bet that you will see that line at -6 at some point in time.
 
I'll call a Pats win, Dallas cover. Books will love that. Some people will recall Dallas doing what they did to undefeated Indy & say screw it I dont need the points. And there'll be the plethora of blind Pats backers.

Both get screwed.
 
C-Gold said:
I see the line at 5.5 at Bodog with more people on the Patriots.

Does anybody want to bet that at least one book has that line touch +6?

last night somebody was saying the line would be Dallas +1, or 2.

I was saying that ...
Dallas +3 was impossible
Dallas +3.5 was improbable
Dallas +4 still seemed low
Then you get that gray area
Dallas +6 might sound a little high to some peeps, but just think about all the public out there just waiting to jump on the Patriots.

If anybody wants to bet, I'd bet that you will see that line at -6 at some point in time.
Click to expand...

I agree line will be there but at same point...

<TABLE class=rt_railbox_border2 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>10/07</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>8:03pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE XX </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>NWE-2.5 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>DAL+2.5 +1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ding-ding.

As I said, with normal power ratings and whatever else is taken into efffect this line was at one point about where it should be.
 
So all of you that bet according to line movements dont actually cap games? So line movements dictates how a team is gonna play ? So what if books want you to go a certain way. They just want even money on both sides. That doesnt change the fact that a team will or will not cover a certain number, so bet accordingly. Cap the game and go with who you think will cover the numbers whatever they might be. Everything else is just horse shit. Can team A beat team B by this many points, thats the question you need to be asking. And if you cap anything at all, you should have a good idea for yourself whether its wrong or right. Line movements are...ummmm...a side show.:4_12_13:
 
This isn't a normal game though...

this game doesn't figure to have "normal" action either. People are calling this the "early super bowl" and you have 2 public teams.

I'd say this game will certainly have more action on it than any other non-sunday/monday night game, and it might have more action on it than any previous game this year ( including sun/mon night).
 
spanishshark said:
So what if books want you to go a certain way. They just want even money on both sides.
Click to expand...

With all due respect Shark, I totally disagree with this statement. The books take advantage of the public all the time. Even money on both sides is not their goal my friend. They are much more greedy than that. They overweight lines all the time in an attempt to suck in the casual bettors.. Some times they get burnt, but more often they succeed.
I agree with this point-- there is no substitute for capping the game without regard to line movement.. But sometimes one must pay attention to "funny" lines that are going opposite of the way they should.. Just doesn't pay to bet against the books consistently. Much more profittable to bet with them..:cheers:
 
In general I believe the books want action on both sides. When the Houston Texans play the Jacksonville Jaguars, I believe the books want pretty equal action on both sides...

However there are exceptions. Take a look at the 1-3 Chicago Bears traveling to the 4-0 Green Bay Packers. There was a hell of a lot more action on the Packers ( even Bears fans didn't believe in their team).

Sometimes the books want more action on one side ( where they are making money on the other side, as opposed to arbitrage in the juice).

Does the house win every single time they take extra action on one side? Of course not, but they win more than they lose in the long run.

and THAT is why the keep building casinos in the desert.
 
and watch as all those people who doubted the bears start believing again this week. lmao. tick tick kaboom.
 
I think tee*dub and spanishshark both made good points. Books are supposed to have even action on the sides of a game, but some bookies are greedy or wager sports by means of their book.

Should bookies have balanced action on both sides?
Yes. There lies the inherent advantage of being the "house" because bettors are laying 11 to win 10, hence a bettor must hit 52.38% to breakeven, which translates into a 4% house advantage.

Do bookies balance their action on both sides?
No. Does anyone remember CKR's thread on Monday when he took the Bills? He said his shop needed the Bills and so did he. There are successful bookies that do not balance their action. Then, there are small-time bookies that cannot achieve balanced action because they are not exposed to enough bettors.

Reverting back to spanishshark's comments, when you cap a game, and the line moves drastically, then you need to review your thoughts; there may be something out there that you did not take into account. However, you cannot intelligently bet line movements blindly.

Btw, I like the Pats under a TD
:cheers:
 
C-Gold said:
I see the line at 5.5 at Bodog with more people on the Patriots.

Does anybody want to bet that at least one book has that line touch +6?

last night somebody was saying the line would be Dallas +1, or 2.

I was saying that ...
Dallas +3 was impossible
Dallas +3.5 was improbable
Dallas +4 still seemed low
Then you get that gray area
Dallas +6 might sound a little high to some peeps, but just think about all the public out there just waiting to jump on the Patriots.

If anybody wants to bet, I'd bet that you will see that line at -6 at some point in time.[/quote]


Seems like a very degenerate thing to do...
Bet on Betting lines.
:cheers:
Click to expand...
 
Coming from a pats fan... as i am sure many of you know but brady (and the whole entire team) seem to step it up even more on big games on the road and belichick has been a master his whole patriots career of taking away dallas' biggest weapon.... pats 31 dallas 17
 
I finally posted my play ...
Boston Bellichecks at -6 @ Tony Romosexuals

I know TO says " we boff 5-0", but after this game #81 will be 5-1.
 
I think it will be a close game, Tony Romo is a supreme attention whore and he will somehow manage to set himself up to win/lose the game by a late score.:smiley_acbe:
 
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