Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Well, that's interesting.
So interesting, in fact, I think I might just ramble on about this game for a bit if you don't mind.
First, though, let's take a trip back to the NFC Championship Game much as it will hurt me to do.
I wasn't around for this game, I actually watched it at what was mostly a Giants bar of all places. Joe then proceeded to take an alcohol-induced header into an NYC sidewalk after far too many shots of God knows what were purchased for me by people I'll never see again.
Ah, good times.
At any rate, there are a couple of very pertinent things to take from that game going into this one.
First, this was almost exactly the game the Eagles have played for two straight playoff games. They let their opponent move the ball too easily in the first half, then the Birds clamped down in the second. The problem in this game that they didn't have to deal with in the first two was that this time their opponent scored TDs, not FGs. Had they been able to keep that score to 17-6 or even 20-6 at half, the second half shapes up very differently.
Oh, and nice blown call early. Didn't lose 'em the game, but seriously, get it right.
The second thing that was very important about that game vs. this is how Philly wasn't really able to generate much pressure until the second half. As we talked about before the game, if Kurt Warner doesn't get touched, you're in for a long day.
So now going into this game the question is this. Will this be Neil O'Donnell vs. the Cowboys or will this be Kurt Warner vs. the Titans. Which one are we going to get.
Personally, I think we're going to get the latter and here's why.
The Eagles were, I think, the best secondary matchup defensively you could ask for against the Cardinals. There really wasn't a WR or TE that they didn't have a SU answer for. Still, all throughout the first half Haley found ways to get Fitz and the rest of that offense in space and it just ate the Eagles' strong suit for breakfast.
But in this game, the Steelers secondary isn't as individually talented as the Eagles. So now you have to have help. Problem is, schematically, that leaves holes all over the place based on the defense the Steelers play.
The defense you want to line up against Kurt Warner is the Cover Two, preferably the way Tampa plays it, disguising blitzes to make sure you still hit Warner while dropping people into coverage zones making Warner hold onto the ball and baiting him to fitting it into windows which may or may not actually be there. But what Pittsburgh plays is the 3-4. This means even if you disguise the blitzes (which they'll surely do) you are still only initially starting with three on the line so Arizona will assume at least two additional are coming every down and you're almost certainly only dropping one back to help--all Warner really has to do is find the single coverage.
Which is harder than I make it seem, obviously, but if you look at Pittsburgh's stats their sacks come from Woodley and Harrison--both LBs--if they have to send those guys to generate pressure, their speed is taken away from the space over the middle and put into the backfield. To me this hurts Pittsburgh in this matchup because, one, Kurt Warner isn't about breaking contain and getting wide, it's about being in the pocket and two, Kurt Warner (when he actually does get rid of the ball) has a really quick release. In essence, I look for Warner to have success over the middle for much of the day.
I also see screens working well and as AZ proved last week, they've got the team to run 'em.
If Pittsburgh were playing Philly and McNabb, I think they'd be happier with this 3-4 matchup because that speed advantage they have in their LBs might keep McNabb contained. Here I don't see that mattering as much because what the Cardinals are going to do is spread the field and have Kurt Warner snap and throw.
This leads me to the other problem with this matchup for Pittsburgh. If you watch the AFC North, which I'm sure you all do on a weekly basis because you're all such avid Browns fans (bless your cotton socks), you know that the way you beat the LeBeau Steelers is to throw the football. It's been like this for years and this year is no different.
You spread 'em out and you throw the ball--which just so happens to be the strength of the Cardinals.
I actually don't think Arizona is that great of a team, but I really like this matchup for them. The one big hole in them winning is Kurt Warner. If Pittsburgh hits him early and often, he could easily degenerate into what Jake Delhome became vs. AZ a few weeks ago.
However, I think one of the huge things AZ has going for them here is Wiz's familiarity with Pittsburgh and, more importantly, Big Ben.
Don't forget, Ben had perhaps the worst QB performance of any SB winning QB ever in that game a few years ago. Now he gets to get all geeked up for some redemption. Which just plays into Wiz's hands.
Truthfully, the only reason this game doesn't set up like TB vs. Oakland for me is that I only trust Kurt Warner so much.
But I think their coaching familiarity with the Steelers' offense, which doesn't scare me as much as it has in the past, combined with their ability to spread the field, gives them the advantage in this game.
I haven't decided exactly how to play it yet, but I'll add my plays here when I have them.
Last, a note about the line. The SB line is the single easiest line to set in all of sports because it almost never has anything to do with the game. It's based on a key number to make it easier for squares to bet it and, given that, plus the natural public lean toward a traditional public team like Pittsburgh there was no way to hang -3. Oddly enough, were this game in Pittsburgh, -9/-10 wouldn't be out of the question, nor would Pitt -3/-4 in AZ. So, strangely, I actually think this line was set right (unlike many SB lines). But I think there's a ton of room in it and the only way Pittsburgh covers is if they turn Warner over three or more times.
I think the first thing I'll play is this AZ TT over 20, sadly the price sucks, but I think they can push it at worst, more to follow. Good luck this weekend everybody.
**update - Steed has offered to toss the salad of anyone who actually reads this whole thing. A very generous offer: CTG, where the giving never stops. **
So interesting, in fact, I think I might just ramble on about this game for a bit if you don't mind.
First, though, let's take a trip back to the NFC Championship Game much as it will hurt me to do.
I wasn't around for this game, I actually watched it at what was mostly a Giants bar of all places. Joe then proceeded to take an alcohol-induced header into an NYC sidewalk after far too many shots of God knows what were purchased for me by people I'll never see again.
Ah, good times.
At any rate, there are a couple of very pertinent things to take from that game going into this one.
First, this was almost exactly the game the Eagles have played for two straight playoff games. They let their opponent move the ball too easily in the first half, then the Birds clamped down in the second. The problem in this game that they didn't have to deal with in the first two was that this time their opponent scored TDs, not FGs. Had they been able to keep that score to 17-6 or even 20-6 at half, the second half shapes up very differently.
Oh, and nice blown call early. Didn't lose 'em the game, but seriously, get it right.
The second thing that was very important about that game vs. this is how Philly wasn't really able to generate much pressure until the second half. As we talked about before the game, if Kurt Warner doesn't get touched, you're in for a long day.
So now going into this game the question is this. Will this be Neil O'Donnell vs. the Cowboys or will this be Kurt Warner vs. the Titans. Which one are we going to get.
Personally, I think we're going to get the latter and here's why.
The Eagles were, I think, the best secondary matchup defensively you could ask for against the Cardinals. There really wasn't a WR or TE that they didn't have a SU answer for. Still, all throughout the first half Haley found ways to get Fitz and the rest of that offense in space and it just ate the Eagles' strong suit for breakfast.
But in this game, the Steelers secondary isn't as individually talented as the Eagles. So now you have to have help. Problem is, schematically, that leaves holes all over the place based on the defense the Steelers play.
The defense you want to line up against Kurt Warner is the Cover Two, preferably the way Tampa plays it, disguising blitzes to make sure you still hit Warner while dropping people into coverage zones making Warner hold onto the ball and baiting him to fitting it into windows which may or may not actually be there. But what Pittsburgh plays is the 3-4. This means even if you disguise the blitzes (which they'll surely do) you are still only initially starting with three on the line so Arizona will assume at least two additional are coming every down and you're almost certainly only dropping one back to help--all Warner really has to do is find the single coverage.
Which is harder than I make it seem, obviously, but if you look at Pittsburgh's stats their sacks come from Woodley and Harrison--both LBs--if they have to send those guys to generate pressure, their speed is taken away from the space over the middle and put into the backfield. To me this hurts Pittsburgh in this matchup because, one, Kurt Warner isn't about breaking contain and getting wide, it's about being in the pocket and two, Kurt Warner (when he actually does get rid of the ball) has a really quick release. In essence, I look for Warner to have success over the middle for much of the day.
I also see screens working well and as AZ proved last week, they've got the team to run 'em.
If Pittsburgh were playing Philly and McNabb, I think they'd be happier with this 3-4 matchup because that speed advantage they have in their LBs might keep McNabb contained. Here I don't see that mattering as much because what the Cardinals are going to do is spread the field and have Kurt Warner snap and throw.
This leads me to the other problem with this matchup for Pittsburgh. If you watch the AFC North, which I'm sure you all do on a weekly basis because you're all such avid Browns fans (bless your cotton socks), you know that the way you beat the LeBeau Steelers is to throw the football. It's been like this for years and this year is no different.
You spread 'em out and you throw the ball--which just so happens to be the strength of the Cardinals.
I actually don't think Arizona is that great of a team, but I really like this matchup for them. The one big hole in them winning is Kurt Warner. If Pittsburgh hits him early and often, he could easily degenerate into what Jake Delhome became vs. AZ a few weeks ago.
However, I think one of the huge things AZ has going for them here is Wiz's familiarity with Pittsburgh and, more importantly, Big Ben.
Don't forget, Ben had perhaps the worst QB performance of any SB winning QB ever in that game a few years ago. Now he gets to get all geeked up for some redemption. Which just plays into Wiz's hands.
Truthfully, the only reason this game doesn't set up like TB vs. Oakland for me is that I only trust Kurt Warner so much.
But I think their coaching familiarity with the Steelers' offense, which doesn't scare me as much as it has in the past, combined with their ability to spread the field, gives them the advantage in this game.
I haven't decided exactly how to play it yet, but I'll add my plays here when I have them.
Last, a note about the line. The SB line is the single easiest line to set in all of sports because it almost never has anything to do with the game. It's based on a key number to make it easier for squares to bet it and, given that, plus the natural public lean toward a traditional public team like Pittsburgh there was no way to hang -3. Oddly enough, were this game in Pittsburgh, -9/-10 wouldn't be out of the question, nor would Pitt -3/-4 in AZ. So, strangely, I actually think this line was set right (unlike many SB lines). But I think there's a ton of room in it and the only way Pittsburgh covers is if they turn Warner over three or more times.
I think the first thing I'll play is this AZ TT over 20, sadly the price sucks, but I think they can push it at worst, more to follow. Good luck this weekend everybody.
**update - Steed has offered to toss the salad of anyone who actually reads this whole thing. A very generous offer: CTG, where the giving never stops. **
