"So is someone going to start a Dr. Bob In-Game Thread or What?" Thread
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counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Thursday Night ESPN Game Analysis
WEST VIRGINIA (-17) 41 Louisville 21
Louisville's defense has improved since their early season debacles against Middle Tennessee State (42 points and 10.2 yards per play allowed) and Syracuse (38 points and 8.2 yppl), but West Virginia is not likely to be contained by the Cardinals in this game. The Mountaineers have averaged 6.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate Louisville's defense at 0.6 yppl worse than average even after taking into consideration their improvement. The Cardinals do have a good offense that has averaged 6.3 yppl against 8 Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but West Virginia is very good defensively (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) and the Mounties actually have a slight advantage in that match-up. My math model favors West Virginia by 17½ points and Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak (won at least their last 2 games) are 39-16-2 ATS. West Virginia lost at Louisville last season and coach Rich Rodriguez is 9-1 ATS in revenge games, so he'll run it up if he can.
WEST VIRGINIA (-17) 41 Louisville 21
Louisville's defense has improved since their early season debacles against Middle Tennessee State (42 points and 10.2 yards per play allowed) and Syracuse (38 points and 8.2 yppl), but West Virginia is not likely to be contained by the Cardinals in this game. The Mountaineers have averaged 6.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate Louisville's defense at 0.6 yppl worse than average even after taking into consideration their improvement. The Cardinals do have a good offense that has averaged 6.3 yppl against 8 Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but West Virginia is very good defensively (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) and the Mounties actually have a slight advantage in that match-up. My math model favors West Virginia by 17½ points and Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak (won at least their last 2 games) are 39-16-2 ATS. West Virginia lost at Louisville last season and coach Rich Rodriguez is 9-1 ATS in revenge games, so he'll run it up if he can.
vandersloot
Well-Known Member
Maybe Arizona State & Tejas A&M
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
I'm kind of surprised that people are not buzzing about his picks like they were the last several weeks. Even last week there was a packed thread about his picks.
vandersloot
Well-Known Member
ULL
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
Not sure where Rexy is right now but I'm sure someone will have the confirmed plays here in a bit.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
sorta predictable there I guess.
ClevelandsBest
Pretty much a regular
Fla?
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
ClevelandsBest
Pretty much a regular
va tech?
bama & vtech
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
3 Star Selection
***Air Force (-3.0) 27 NOTRE DAME 14
11:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I resisted going against Notre Dame last week in a Best Bet on Navy because I thought perhaps the horrible Irish passing attack would have some success against the nation’s worst pass defense. That was certainly not the case, as Notre Dame averaged a shameful 3.4 yards per pass play and 4.2 yards per play against a Navy defense that would allow 8.8 yppp and 7.0 yppl on the road to an average offensive team. For the season the Irish have averaged a pathetic 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. That is the worst offensive rating of any team in recent years (worse than some bad Sun Belt teams even) and a solid Air Force defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) isn’t likely to surrender much real estate to the Irish in this game. Notre Dame does have a solid defensive unit that has yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that wold combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit, but they’re not that much better than an Air Force attack that has been 0.3 yppl better than average so far this season. My math model gives Air Force a 58.9% chance of covering (based on the historical predictability of my model) and the Falcons also apply to a 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Notre Dame’s only win this season came in a game against UCLA in which the Bruins’ 4th string quarterback turned the ball over 7 times while Notre Dame suffered no turnovers. In other words, Notre Dame is just no good enough to win a football game unless they get very lucky. The math and the strong indicator make Air Force a 63.8% play at -3 points and I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, 4-Stars at -2 ½ points (at -115 odds or less) and for 2- Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
***Air Force (-3.0) 27 NOTRE DAME 14
11:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I resisted going against Notre Dame last week in a Best Bet on Navy because I thought perhaps the horrible Irish passing attack would have some success against the nation’s worst pass defense. That was certainly not the case, as Notre Dame averaged a shameful 3.4 yards per pass play and 4.2 yards per play against a Navy defense that would allow 8.8 yppp and 7.0 yppl on the road to an average offensive team. For the season the Irish have averaged a pathetic 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. That is the worst offensive rating of any team in recent years (worse than some bad Sun Belt teams even) and a solid Air Force defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) isn’t likely to surrender much real estate to the Irish in this game. Notre Dame does have a solid defensive unit that has yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that wold combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit, but they’re not that much better than an Air Force attack that has been 0.3 yppl better than average so far this season. My math model gives Air Force a 58.9% chance of covering (based on the historical predictability of my model) and the Falcons also apply to a 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Notre Dame’s only win this season came in a game against UCLA in which the Bruins’ 4th string quarterback turned the ball over 7 times while Notre Dame suffered no turnovers. In other words, Notre Dame is just no good enough to win a football game unless they get very lucky. The math and the strong indicator make Air Force a 63.8% play at -3 points and I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, 4-Stars at -2 ½ points (at -115 odds or less) and for 2- Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
2 Star Selection
**VIRGINIA TECH (-6.0) 27 Florida St. 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Virginia Tech has a history of playing well at home against other good teams, as evidenced by their 37-14-1 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 14 points. The Hokies are fortunate to be facing Florida State with Drew Weatherford at quarterback instead of Xavier Lee. Lee was better than Weatherford last season and he was better than Weatherford this season. Lee has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play on his 130 pass plays this season despite facing teams that would only allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Weatherford, meanwhile, is as mediocre as ever, averaging just 6.3 yppp on 203 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB. Weatherford doesn’t throw as many interceptions as Lee does because he doesn’t throw the ball down the field, but Lee is the better overall quarterback even with the interceptions factored in. Florida State has been just average overall on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Seminoles are 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback and they won’t have many scoring opportunities against a very good Virginia Tech defense that has yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Only very good offensive teams LSU and Clemson have scored more than 14 points against the Hokies and I don’t expect Florida State to reach that number today. The problem with Virginia Tech is an offense that has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season. Pocket passer Sean Glennon has hit his stride the last 3 weeks after struggling early in the year. Glennon was replaced by freshman scrambler Tyrod Taylor after their loss to LSU, and while Taylor’s passing numbers are not nearly as good as Glennon’s his scrambling (40 rushing plays for 336 yards) makes up for the difference. Florida State’s defensive weakness is pass coverage, so I suspect Glennon will get the nod in this game – although it doesn’t matter much. Overall, the Seminoles are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Virginia Tech’s defense is 1.7 yppl better than Florida State’s offense while the Seminoles only have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Hokies’ attack. Virginia Tech also has better special teams - although being without return star Eddie Royal is worth just over 1 ½ points - and my math model favors the Hokies by 10 ½ points in this game. Florida State is coming off their upset win over Boston College (a product of a +3 turnover margin) but that win sets them up in a very negative 9-42-1 ATS subset of a 54-120-2 ATS road letdown situation. Frank Beamer has never beaten Florida State, but this is the first time since 1989 that he gets the Seminoles in Blacksburg and I expect a fired up Hokies team today. I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
**VIRGINIA TECH (-6.0) 27 Florida St. 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Virginia Tech has a history of playing well at home against other good teams, as evidenced by their 37-14-1 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 14 points. The Hokies are fortunate to be facing Florida State with Drew Weatherford at quarterback instead of Xavier Lee. Lee was better than Weatherford last season and he was better than Weatherford this season. Lee has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play on his 130 pass plays this season despite facing teams that would only allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Weatherford, meanwhile, is as mediocre as ever, averaging just 6.3 yppp on 203 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB. Weatherford doesn’t throw as many interceptions as Lee does because he doesn’t throw the ball down the field, but Lee is the better overall quarterback even with the interceptions factored in. Florida State has been just average overall on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Seminoles are 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback and they won’t have many scoring opportunities against a very good Virginia Tech defense that has yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Only very good offensive teams LSU and Clemson have scored more than 14 points against the Hokies and I don’t expect Florida State to reach that number today. The problem with Virginia Tech is an offense that has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season. Pocket passer Sean Glennon has hit his stride the last 3 weeks after struggling early in the year. Glennon was replaced by freshman scrambler Tyrod Taylor after their loss to LSU, and while Taylor’s passing numbers are not nearly as good as Glennon’s his scrambling (40 rushing plays for 336 yards) makes up for the difference. Florida State’s defensive weakness is pass coverage, so I suspect Glennon will get the nod in this game – although it doesn’t matter much. Overall, the Seminoles are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Virginia Tech’s defense is 1.7 yppl better than Florida State’s offense while the Seminoles only have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Hokies’ attack. Virginia Tech also has better special teams - although being without return star Eddie Royal is worth just over 1 ½ points - and my math model favors the Hokies by 10 ½ points in this game. Florida State is coming off their upset win over Boston College (a product of a +3 turnover margin) but that win sets them up in a very negative 9-42-1 ATS subset of a 54-120-2 ATS road letdown situation. Frank Beamer has never beaten Florida State, but this is the first time since 1989 that he gets the Seminoles in Blacksburg and I expect a fired up Hokies team today. I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-15.5) 42 Memphis 18
01:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers certainly won’t be able to stop the running of Damion Fletcher (990 yards at 5.4 ypr) and quarterback Jeremy Young (6.0 yards per rushing play). Memphis has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play for the season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Tigers have been especially porous the last 3 weeks since injuries have hit their linebacking corps. Quinton McCrary missed week 8 against Rice and was out again last week while LB Winston Bowen has missed the last two weeks and is out for the season. In those past 3 games the Tigers have allowed 8.0 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp) and last week, the only game in which both linebackers were out, the they allowed a preposterous 491 rushing yards at 11.2 yprp to a mediocre East Carolina rushing attack. McCrary may return this week from his injured toe, but he won’t be enough to stop the Southern Miss rushing attack. The Memphis offense is 0.2 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Martin Hankins in the game but Southern Miss is solid defensively for a CUSA team (they rate as average on a national scale), so the Tigers will have a tough time keeping up with what their defense gives up. My math model favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points and the Eagles apply to a very good 53-14-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation following last week’s 37-7 win over UAB in Jeremy Young’s first game back from 4 game absence. Memphis has a history of playing better off a loss than off a win under coach West and they’re 9-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points after a conference loss. That team trend is not nearly as strong as the general situation favoring Southern Miss but it will keep me from making this a 3-Star Best Bet. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.
**SOUTHERN MISS (-15.5) 42 Memphis 18
01:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers certainly won’t be able to stop the running of Damion Fletcher (990 yards at 5.4 ypr) and quarterback Jeremy Young (6.0 yards per rushing play). Memphis has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play for the season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Tigers have been especially porous the last 3 weeks since injuries have hit their linebacking corps. Quinton McCrary missed week 8 against Rice and was out again last week while LB Winston Bowen has missed the last two weeks and is out for the season. In those past 3 games the Tigers have allowed 8.0 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp) and last week, the only game in which both linebackers were out, the they allowed a preposterous 491 rushing yards at 11.2 yprp to a mediocre East Carolina rushing attack. McCrary may return this week from his injured toe, but he won’t be enough to stop the Southern Miss rushing attack. The Memphis offense is 0.2 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Martin Hankins in the game but Southern Miss is solid defensively for a CUSA team (they rate as average on a national scale), so the Tigers will have a tough time keeping up with what their defense gives up. My math model favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points and the Eagles apply to a very good 53-14-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation following last week’s 37-7 win over UAB in Jeremy Young’s first game back from 4 game absence. Memphis has a history of playing better off a loss than off a win under coach West and they’re 9-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points after a conference loss. That team trend is not nearly as strong as the general situation favoring Southern Miss but it will keep me from making this a 3-Star Best Bet. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
2 Star Selection
**Florida (-6.5) 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I’m sure Steve Spurrier would love to beat his old team, but the Gamecocks just aren’t as good as the Gators and Florida applies to a very strong 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while South Carolina applies to a negative 22-67-2 ATS situation. Florida’s offense is the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against 8 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack. South Carolina’s defense is very good at defending the pass, but Urban Meyer is smart enough to take advantage of a soft defensive front that has allowed 5.5 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defensive team. Arkansas ripped through that defense last week for 541 rushing yards at 9.3 yprp and the Gamecocks could be without leading tackler Emanuel Cook, who sprained his ankle early in the 2nd half last week, and starting CB Captain Munnerlyn (more likely to miss with a more severe ankle sprain). Overall South Carolina is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and they are at a huge disadvantage against Florida’s multi-faceted attack. South Carolina’s offense has been just 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they won’t be able to run against the Gators, who have allowed just 3.8 yprp this season. The Gators have some trouble against the pass (6.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team), but Gamecocks’ quarterback Blake Mitchell has actually been worse than average throwing the ball this season despite playing a bit better than average the last two weeks since getting his starting spot back. These teams both have a weakness on defense and rate about the same overall on that side of the ball, but Florida is MUCH better offensively and the Gators have better special teams. My math model favors Florida by 11 points and the technical analysis also favors the Gators in this game. The only negative is Florida’s 1-10-1 ATS mark as a regular season favorite away from home under coach Meyer, but Spurrier is just 2-5 ATS as a home dog at South Carolina and the angles are much more significant than the team trend against Florida. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
**Florida (-6.5) 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I’m sure Steve Spurrier would love to beat his old team, but the Gamecocks just aren’t as good as the Gators and Florida applies to a very strong 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while South Carolina applies to a negative 22-67-2 ATS situation. Florida’s offense is the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against 8 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack. South Carolina’s defense is very good at defending the pass, but Urban Meyer is smart enough to take advantage of a soft defensive front that has allowed 5.5 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defensive team. Arkansas ripped through that defense last week for 541 rushing yards at 9.3 yprp and the Gamecocks could be without leading tackler Emanuel Cook, who sprained his ankle early in the 2nd half last week, and starting CB Captain Munnerlyn (more likely to miss with a more severe ankle sprain). Overall South Carolina is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and they are at a huge disadvantage against Florida’s multi-faceted attack. South Carolina’s offense has been just 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they won’t be able to run against the Gators, who have allowed just 3.8 yprp this season. The Gators have some trouble against the pass (6.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team), but Gamecocks’ quarterback Blake Mitchell has actually been worse than average throwing the ball this season despite playing a bit better than average the last two weeks since getting his starting spot back. These teams both have a weakness on defense and rate about the same overall on that side of the ball, but Florida is MUCH better offensively and the Gators have better special teams. My math model favors Florida by 11 points and the technical analysis also favors the Gators in this game. The only negative is Florida’s 1-10-1 ATS mark as a regular season favorite away from home under coach Meyer, but Spurrier is just 2-5 ATS as a home dog at South Carolina and the angles are much more significant than the team trend against Florida. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Strong Opinion
TCU 21 BYU (-7.0) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-07
TCU has certainly been a disappointment this season, but the Horned Frogs are not easy to beat with a defense that goes from very good to great with star DE Tommy Blake back in the starting lineup. Blake has only played in 4 games this season and the Horned Frogs have allowed 4.3 yards per play in those 4 games (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team). Blake had missed 4 consecutive games prior to starting last week against New Mexico and TCU dominated a decent Lobos offense in allowing just 119 yards, 2.0 yppl and 0 points. BYU is only 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), so the Cougars are not going to have an easy time moving the football. TCU’s below average attack (5.0 yppl with starting QB Dalton in the game, against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) will also struggle against a BYU defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, TCU has a 1.0 yppl edge on BYU’s offense while the Cougars have a 1.0 yppl edge on the Frogs’ attack. TCU has the edge in special teams and I rate the Horned Frogs as the better team overall in this game. I would have considered TCU as a possible Best Bet in this game if not for the fact that Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak are 39-16-2 ATS over the years. I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
TCU 21 BYU (-7.0) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-07
TCU has certainly been a disappointment this season, but the Horned Frogs are not easy to beat with a defense that goes from very good to great with star DE Tommy Blake back in the starting lineup. Blake has only played in 4 games this season and the Horned Frogs have allowed 4.3 yards per play in those 4 games (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team). Blake had missed 4 consecutive games prior to starting last week against New Mexico and TCU dominated a decent Lobos offense in allowing just 119 yards, 2.0 yppl and 0 points. BYU is only 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), so the Cougars are not going to have an easy time moving the football. TCU’s below average attack (5.0 yppl with starting QB Dalton in the game, against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) will also struggle against a BYU defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, TCU has a 1.0 yppl edge on BYU’s offense while the Cougars have a 1.0 yppl edge on the Frogs’ attack. TCU has the edge in special teams and I rate the Horned Frogs as the better team overall in this game. I would have considered TCU as a possible Best Bet in this game if not for the fact that Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak are 39-16-2 ATS over the years. I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Strong Opinion
Indiana (-2.0) 33 NORTHWESTERN 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Indiana is certainly not a great team, but the Hoosiers are a better than average team and they should be able to beat a sub-par Northwestern team today. Indiana is 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but they have an advantage over a Northwestern defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Indiana also has a slight advantage when the Wildcats have the ball, as Northwestern is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively while the Hoosiers are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. Indiana also has an advantage in projected turnover with Kellen Lewis and his 9 interceptions in 10 games going up against Northwestern’s C.J. Bacher, who has thrown 14 picks in 10 games. The big difference in these teams is special teams, as the Hoosiers are better in all facets of special teams and have one of the most valuable place kickers in college football in Austin Starr (his kicking has been 1.4 points per game better than an average kicker, which is the best in the nation). My math model favors Indiana by 7 points and I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I’d take Indiana in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
Indiana (-2.0) 33 NORTHWESTERN 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Indiana is certainly not a great team, but the Hoosiers are a better than average team and they should be able to beat a sub-par Northwestern team today. Indiana is 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but they have an advantage over a Northwestern defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Indiana also has a slight advantage when the Wildcats have the ball, as Northwestern is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively while the Hoosiers are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. Indiana also has an advantage in projected turnover with Kellen Lewis and his 9 interceptions in 10 games going up against Northwestern’s C.J. Bacher, who has thrown 14 picks in 10 games. The big difference in these teams is special teams, as the Hoosiers are better in all facets of special teams and have one of the most valuable place kickers in college football in Austin Starr (his kicking has been 1.4 points per game better than an average kicker, which is the best in the nation). My math model favors Indiana by 7 points and I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I’d take Indiana in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (pk) 35 Arkansas 30
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Arkansas won for me last week at home against South Carolina but that win sets up the Razorbacks in a very negative 93-185-5 ATS road letdown situation while Tennessee applies to a very good 132-50-6 ATS home momentum situation. Those situations combine to give Tennessee a very profitable 58.5% chance of covering at a fair line but the fair line on this game is Arkansas by 2 ½ points. The Volunteers still have a 54.1% chance of covering at pick, which is good enough to make them a Strong Opinion (it’s 55.6% at +1). I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at pick or better and I’d make the Volunteers a 2- Star Best Bet at +2 points or more (57.8% chance of covering).
TENNESSEE (pk) 35 Arkansas 30
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Arkansas won for me last week at home against South Carolina but that win sets up the Razorbacks in a very negative 93-185-5 ATS road letdown situation while Tennessee applies to a very good 132-50-6 ATS home momentum situation. Those situations combine to give Tennessee a very profitable 58.5% chance of covering at a fair line but the fair line on this game is Arkansas by 2 ½ points. The Volunteers still have a 54.1% chance of covering at pick, which is good enough to make them a Strong Opinion (it’s 55.6% at +1). I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at pick or better and I’d make the Volunteers a 2- Star Best Bet at +2 points or more (57.8% chance of covering).
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI ST. 22 Alabama (-4.5) 21
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Mississippi State has already upset Auburn and Kentucky this season on the road and the Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for this game against an Alabama team that may be emotionally drained after blowing a lead last week to LSU. Teams coming off close losses to superior teams often suffer a letdown the next week while dwelling on what could have been and Mississippi State is not a team that Alabama will have an easy time getting up for. The Crimson Tide apply to a negative 64-145-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s close loss and Bama also applies to a negative 97-173-11 ATS road favorite situation. Mississippi State is good enough defensively to compete with Alabama in this game, as the Bulldogs are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while Alabama is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season and are now even worse without two starting offensive linemen and their #2 running back likely to sit out their 3rd game due to suspension. Mississippi State’s offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average for the season and also 0.8 yppl worse than average with Wesley Carroll as the starting quarterback, but the Bulldogs are improved with Carroll, who has not thrown an interception in 137 pass attempts (the other quarterbacks threw 11 picks in the first 6 games). Alabama is good but not great defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), so Miss State should have a few scoring opportunities. Mississippi State is only 7-13 ATS at home under coach Croom, but they’re 3-0 ATS as a home underdog after a bye week, so the Bulldogs should be ready to play. My math model favors Alabama by 5 points, so the line is fair, but I’d like to have some line value on my side. The situation is certainly strong enough against Alabama to consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
MISSISSIPPI ST. 22 Alabama (-4.5) 21
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Mississippi State has already upset Auburn and Kentucky this season on the road and the Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for this game against an Alabama team that may be emotionally drained after blowing a lead last week to LSU. Teams coming off close losses to superior teams often suffer a letdown the next week while dwelling on what could have been and Mississippi State is not a team that Alabama will have an easy time getting up for. The Crimson Tide apply to a negative 64-145-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s close loss and Bama also applies to a negative 97-173-11 ATS road favorite situation. Mississippi State is good enough defensively to compete with Alabama in this game, as the Bulldogs are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while Alabama is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season and are now even worse without two starting offensive linemen and their #2 running back likely to sit out their 3rd game due to suspension. Mississippi State’s offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average for the season and also 0.8 yppl worse than average with Wesley Carroll as the starting quarterback, but the Bulldogs are improved with Carroll, who has not thrown an interception in 137 pass attempts (the other quarterbacks threw 11 picks in the first 6 games). Alabama is good but not great defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), so Miss State should have a few scoring opportunities. Mississippi State is only 7-13 ATS at home under coach Croom, but they’re 3-0 ATS as a home underdog after a bye week, so the Bulldogs should be ready to play. My math model favors Alabama by 5 points, so the line is fair, but I’d like to have some line value on my side. The situation is certainly strong enough against Alabama to consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Strong Opinion
TULSA (pk) 41 Houston 35
12:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Tulsa has been hurt by turnovers this season (-11 in TO margin), which partly explains their 3-6 ATS record. However, the Golden Hurricane are a better team than Houston from the line of scrimmage and should win this game. Tulsa has been fantastic offensively this season, averaging 7.0 yards per play with starting quarterback Paul Smith on the field, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Smith has been particularly good in averaging 8.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’ll feast on a porous Houston pass defense that’s allowed 6.6 yppp this season despite facing teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Overall, Houston rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and Tulsa has a 1.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Houston’s offense ahs an advantage too, as the Cougars are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl) while Tulsa rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with top defensive back CB Roberts playing (the secondary was torched by UTEP when Roberts was out). Houston’s offensive advantage of 0.9 yppl isn’t as much as Tulsa’s 1.4 yppl advantage and the difference is even more with this game being played at Tulsa. Houston does have an advantage in projected turnovers and 3 points in special teams but my math model still favors Tulsa by 3 ½ points in this game. Tulsa applies to a solid 105-50-1 ATS home momentum situation, but the Hurricane doesn’t apply to the best part of that angle, so I won’t make Tulsa a Best Bet at the current line. If Houston becomes a favorite or pick then the Cougars would apply to a negative 93-185-5 ATS situation and that would certainly be enough, combined with the extra line value, to make Tulsa a Best Bet. I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’d take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
TULSA (pk) 41 Houston 35
12:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Tulsa has been hurt by turnovers this season (-11 in TO margin), which partly explains their 3-6 ATS record. However, the Golden Hurricane are a better team than Houston from the line of scrimmage and should win this game. Tulsa has been fantastic offensively this season, averaging 7.0 yards per play with starting quarterback Paul Smith on the field, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Smith has been particularly good in averaging 8.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’ll feast on a porous Houston pass defense that’s allowed 6.6 yppp this season despite facing teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Overall, Houston rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and Tulsa has a 1.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Houston’s offense ahs an advantage too, as the Cougars are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl) while Tulsa rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with top defensive back CB Roberts playing (the secondary was torched by UTEP when Roberts was out). Houston’s offensive advantage of 0.9 yppl isn’t as much as Tulsa’s 1.4 yppl advantage and the difference is even more with this game being played at Tulsa. Houston does have an advantage in projected turnovers and 3 points in special teams but my math model still favors Tulsa by 3 ½ points in this game. Tulsa applies to a solid 105-50-1 ATS home momentum situation, but the Hurricane doesn’t apply to the best part of that angle, so I won’t make Tulsa a Best Bet at the current line. If Houston becomes a favorite or pick then the Cougars would apply to a negative 93-185-5 ATS situation and that would certainly be enough, combined with the extra line value, to make Tulsa a Best Bet. I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’d take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
I kinda agree with him on Florida. I had stated before in ETG's thread that anything below 10 I would be on Florida but Im starting to think that 7 would be the max. 7 or more I think I might take the Cocks.
WeStSiDe80
Active Member
:cheers:
RunningBackU
Pretty much a regular
His followers must be dwindling because he barely made any lines move.
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
A few reasons why his lines are not moving as much:
1) Oddsmakers have put out sharper numbers, and pros pound mistakes sooner in the week now. Fewer bad lines for Bob to pick off
2) His followers have become less and less since his success has diminished greatly from a few yrs ago
3) Whatever followers he did have went broke from Nov of last year onwards in both college football and college basketball.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
well said:smiley_acbe:
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Well, I'm glad I bet AF early.
I still like it, though, it and Florida.
Thanks again for posting these, Counselor.
I still like it, though, it and Florida.
Thanks again for posting these, Counselor.
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