So, I almost never bet baseball, but ...

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Those who know me know that my baseball knowledge is literally one team deep. I watch and follow the White Sox. Ask me about another team and you'll be disappointed. Ask me anything about the NL other than "Do they use a DH" or "Are the Mets still paying Bobby Bonilla" and I promise you'll be disappointed in my answer.

That all said, I meant to post something about this at the beginning of the week (you know, when it would have been more useful), but if it makes anybody feel any better I didn't bet Monday's game either so there.

The play is the over tonight in Toronto.

I wouldn't have suggested yesterday's game simply because Chris Sale was pitching and there was a very real possibility that he would do exactly what he did. And the Jays were throwing a knuckleballer so that's just a weird matchup.

But Monday and tonight, I believe have some value. Tonight loses some value after two straight overs, but I still think it's worth a look.

The reason not to play this mostly involves the Sox offense struggling to start the season, but as we've seen the last two nights, it's shown up in Toronto. I don't think this is a fluke. I think this is the product of Navarro coming over to the Sox in the offseason and knowing his former team very well. As we've seen, he's done well himself there. But so have all the other Sox, really. Even Abreu is doing OK and he's been very cold to start the season.

Point being, I think the Sox are getting you four runs.

They'll drop back to where they were once they fly to Baltimore tomorrow.

On the other side, the Jays have a great offense (I do know that) and going back to Monday, they easily could have put up another three runs in that game. Donaldson started off the game by hitting a 327.9 ft double off a 328 ft wall, there was another ball that almost made it out as well, so it's not as if their bats are dead. And now, given that the Jays have lost the last two, I think you'll see some relief that they got past Sale, some anger that they gave up 10 last night, and some extra focus on winning this game to avoid the sweep.

I took a small piece of this at the flat 8 last night, and while 8.5 isn't great, I think these two teams can get you to nine tonight.

Like I said, I almost never bet baseball, so this is a small play, but I wanted to throw it out there in case anybody is looking at this game tonight.

Good luck, everybody.

=)
 
It is one of baseball's hitting paradises. I see at least one ChiSox game play per week in your future.
 
It is one of baseball's hitting paradises. I see at least one ChiSox game play per week in your future.

I want to say you're wrong—about the latter, I'll take your word on the former—but the truth is, you may be right.

Sale may be too overvalued. He's 5-0 now and, quite likely, he's just going to get stronger as we get into the summer. But Matt Latos is a sleeper here. Apparently he and Navarro date back to both of their days in Cincy and they work really well together. Given that Latos is generally our fourth starter should mean some really good matchups for him.

And once Abreu starts to hit the Abreu/Frazier combo should be able to get this team to four and five runs a game with some consistency.
 
Frazier was probably the addition the Tribe needed most, and certainly didn't like landing in Chicago. Think they wanted Lindor though.
 
Honestly right now the Sox offseason moves this year all look absolutely genius. Now, that will change, obviously but right now they're sustaining the team. Fraizer solved the 3B problem the Sox have had for like five years. Lawrie a high-motor guy which was missing, and the adding Jackson gave them the ability to move Eaton to right—where he's had absolutely no transition time. Add Latos in there, Jimmy Rollins is playing well, and so far it's been fantastic.

Again, I realize that all can't last, but right now they're first place in the AL and Abreu isn't hitting. So as some of the others cool, if he picks up they may be able to maintain a much higher baseline than people expected.

Oh, and from a betting perspective, something to think about and watch with them. They score late. They're good at getting runs in the 7th+ innings. That's something that's been consistent all year.
 
Division is a five-horse race. KC fans probably scoff, but I'll scoff right back at them and their taped together SP. All five teams are no picnic to play.
 
Yeah, the danger here was Q pitching great—and he did to get himself out of trouble, but really the Jays let themselves down. They left runners in scoring position all night and in bad spots—leadoff double, can't get him home. Runners on 2nd & 3rd, no runs. The Sox finally broke through and did their job to get their four, but Toronto just couldn't get their shit together.

Hrumph. Sorry if I pushed anybody over the edge to back this. I'll be on sidelines again if you need me.

=)
 
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