SNF Week 0 and 1

satnightfever05

satnightfever05

Pretty much a regular
Usually go lighter earlier on, since I'm more of a situational capper.. but talking about my leans helps the focus and weeds out potential dogs.. Thoughts?

Week 0

Vandy -17.5 vs Hawaii: Don't see how Vandy doesn't blow them out here- even with this being a massively public play. FCS school on deck for the Dores- should be able to run at will... 49-14

Ohio +3.5 at SDSU: Can't back this shitty SDSU offense, even if this is a travel pain in the ass game for Ohio... Assuming Rourke is healthy, no reason Ohio can't win this outright- SDSU also loses its entire starting DL. Ohio 24-20

Week 1

UCF -34.5 vs Kent St: KSU lowest returning production team in country (25%) returning 0 starters on offense. JRP back for UCF- even if they run it 70 times- Kent won't be able to stop them. KSU also 130th in country in returning D production- Also saw a stat on twitter, home teams that are -30 or greater in game #1 are 72% ATS since 2014. UCF 63-10

Wyoming +14 vs Texas Tech: Cowboys #4 overall in returning production- Texas Tech has HUGE home game vs. Oregon next week. Do they really care about this one, in the altitude? TT 1-4 in road games last year (only W was 4 pt win vs Iowa State). TT- 31-24

Northwestern +7 at Rutgers: Rutgers doesn't beat Big ten teams by more than a TD.. rarely ever.. NW seems to be rallying around Fitz firing and in HC all about it.. Rutgers 20-17

Michigan -35 vs ECU: ECU #130 in total returning production- even if Jim wants to run 60 times, their OL is so good, there should be many long TD runs, even in the 2H. UM beat their 3 cupcakes last year by like 60 points on average. the "ECU" name probably suppressing this line a TD or so.. Michigan 56-13

UCONN +14.5 vs NC State: Missed the 17, doubt we see it again- UCONN top 6 in returning production. Another "who cares" game here? NC State hosts ND next week. Armstrong scares me a bit against this UCONN Defense, but he also threw like 100 INTs last year, so not sure how unleashed he'll be. Pack also squeaked out opening game at ECU last year... NC State 27-21


And couple quick hitters:
UTSA PK vs Houston- Just think UTSA is better and with Houston now a "big boy" I think roadies really focus on getting the W here
Army vs. ULM Under 48.5: New clock rules- will Army only have like 7 possessions the entire game? I'll bet they don't score every time they get the ball..
Iowa -23 vs Utah State: Iowa brought in some good transfers- Cade from UM, that 5 star WR from OSU- Utah St 119th in offensive returning production- understand ISU on deck for Iowa, but new offense- think they can get to 30, which should be enough. Iowa 31-6


 
Appreciate the analysis...

Vandy, totally agree with.

I definitely would lean my Wolverines as well. My concern is the new clock rules with a lot of running. Otherwise, you have 10 legit starting OL. They should mail all game.
 
satnightfever05 said:
Is anyone leaning Hawaii against Vandy? This feels like such a public play- but how does Vandy not smoke them here?
Click to expand...
It's funny because I think we had the same discussion about this last year as everyone and their brother was on Vandy and things looked shaky in the first, then the floodgates opened and everyyone breathed a sigh of relief haha...

I am not on either side this year by the way, as I actually think the over is the best play this year, but if I had to pick a side it would definitely be Vandy.

Best of luck this season!
CB
 
carolinablue said:
It's funny because I think we had the same discussion about this last year as everyone and their brother was on Vandy and things looked shaky in the first, then the floodgates opened and everyyone breathed a sigh of relief haha...

I am not on either side this year by the way, as I actually think the over is the best play this year, but if I had to pick a side it would definitely be Vandy.

Best of luck this season!
CB
Click to expand...
And line just dropped to 16.5. Not sure I can lay-off anymore at that price lol
 
This is all I found so far…

Vanderbilt football defensive tackle Christian James will not play against Hawaii due to an undisclosed injury, coach Clark Lea confirmed Saturday.

James will need a few more weeks before returning. The Commodores' 2023 season begins Aug. 26 against Hawaii.

Darren Agu, who suffered a dislocated elbow during a practice Aug. 8, is questionable for the opener, Lea said. Agu, if healthy, is expected to start at defensive end. He has not participated in practice since his injury, and though the Commodores expect that he will be cleared to play by the opener, they may opt to hold him out.
 
steponaduck said:
army without their projected starting QB and now their RB went down in practice, wont be available for ULM....could be disasterous down in louisiana for the black nights in week one...
Click to expand...
ULM is trash, but still isn’t Army also going to a bit more passing and ditching the full on triple option? Might dabble on the ML there too
 
Only locked in Vandy -16.5 this weekend.. might play UTEP or NMSU live if I can get a good number.. nothing else really of interest.. Ohio scares me just due to bad D + travel out west
 
I'm certainly not gonna put any cash behind it - but the Aztec O (should) look a bit different .....
>> my guess is that new OC Lindley wants (badly) to open things up - have their O look more like Utah's heavy TE '12' look .... Hoke likes the ground/pound and might limit what he'll be able to do. This might be a good test, as Ohio's pass D is horrific / run D decent.

note: fall camp has seen mucho passing - I wouldn't read much into it - Hoke has let Lindley do whatever he wants in practice (guessing) > games might be different - Hoke is getting pressure, in light of the new stadium / fans getting pissed and bored to tears - to provide a more entertaining product.

BOL buddy ........... :shake:
 
Last edited:
MGM has this ML + points per team option which can come in handy

UTEP ML + both teams to score 20+ is +195. Don’t see a utep blowout and how fast JSU plays, 20 per side seems like a pretty safe floor
 
OK, locked into week 1:

UCF grabbed at -34.5.. still like it, even if it rains/windy post hurricane as UCF should run it 60+ times

UTSA I got as a PK and Wyoming +14.5 are still locked in

Think I'm playing ECU +36.5 now.. major rumblings UM might be without both its starting Safeties, WR1 and WR2 and CB2.. add in no Harbaugh and Moore, with OL coach calling plays.. ECU isnt that** bad, returns entire DL.. but it could be a 38-9 type of ugly game

Not a big parlay guy, but having a hard time figuring out who loses here at -101 Miami FL, TCU, SMU, PSU, BYU, UCLA, Ore State

Wisky I got as MGM had a stale -24.5 while it was -27.5/-28 at other books, so took that for value

Grabbed South Bama at +7.5 with 20 starters back vs Tulane (who also has Ole Miss on deck)

UCONN might play in game, want +17, and its 14.5/15 right now..

Snagged WVU/PSU Under 53.5 few weeks ago, and I'm seeing 50s now.. hopefully good sign of a 38-10 type game

Will be on TCU in some capacity- 70% of the handle/65% of bets on the buffs, but line chilling at -20.5/21 as others have said, if TCU starts slow, maybe look for 2H? Colorado wont have depth to compete for 60 minutes against tempo + heat in Texas
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

satnightfever05
Week 2 Discussion
Replies
20
Views
320
satnightfever05
satnightfever05
steponaduck
NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 2- STEPONADUCK 17-10 YTD +6.75u
Replies
9
Views
356
steponaduck
steponaduck
G-Man
***G-Man's College Week 2***
Replies
11
Views
294
G-Man
G-Man
B.A.R.
Week of Saturday, September 28th Plays and Analysis Thread...
Replies
46
Views
823
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
VirginiaCavs
Iowa vs. Ohio State Preview Article
Replies
3
Views
187
FadeTheHype
F
Back
Top