SMU vs Texas State: Best College Football Picks
SMU Mustangs vs Texas State Bobcats
Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas
What SMU Needs
In order to cover the spread, SMU will need to rely heavily on its pass attack.
While the fact that the Mustangs ranked 51st in highest pass play percentage last year isn’t radically indicative of a pass-first team, the services of two departed running backs (Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones) will no longer be available to them.
Texas State’s Pass Defense
On first glance, Texas State’s pass defense numbers seem impressive and therefore seem able to provide justification for a play on Texas State.
However, a look into the Bobcats’ game-by-game performances tells a more honest story.
Largely, Texas State benefitted by facing many opponents with soft passing attacks. Its pass defense numbers also benefitted by facing superior pass attacks who concealed their potency after their team garnered an insurmountable lead.
Last year, SMU fit into the latter category. The Mustangs won 47-17 with quarterback Shane Buechele only having to attempt 18 passes.
When the Bobcats did have to reckon with strong passing attacks, the outcome was negative for them.
For example, Troy’s Kaleb Barker amassed almost 400 yards, six touchdowns, and a very high completion percentage against the Bobcats’ supposedly strong pass defense.
SMU’s Pass Attack
Considering SMU’s departures at running back, we should see more of former Texas Longhorn quarterback Shane Buechele.
In his first year at SMU, last year, he nearly reached 4,000 yards passing and he amassed 34 touchdowns to 10 interceptions while completing 62.7 percent of his passes.
Like last year, Buechele will enjoy a deep and deeply talented corps of wide receivers.
Above all, he hopes that, this year, Reggie Roberson Jr. will stay healthy for the entire season. If he’s able to do so, Buechele’s season numbers stand to skyrocket.
The former West Virginia transfer eclipsed 800 yards and was accumulating 18.7 YPC before the eighth game of the season in which he suffered a season-ending injury.
SMU Rush Attack vs. Texas State Run Defense
Despite losing quality depth at the running back position, the Mustangs will still challenge the Bobcats with a versatile offense featuring a dangerous ground game.
As a Freshman, TJ McDaniel actually led the Bobcats in YPC (5.8). He simply didn’t get the amount of carries required to produce high yardage totals for the season.
But now it is his time to shine. After amassing 159 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s rendition of this match-up, McDaniel promises to establish a strong start to his season of greater responsibility.
Teams knew, last year, to run heavily on the Bobcats. They ranked 120th in allowing an average of 229.6 rush yards per game. Hence, Texas State was easily McDaniel’s favorite opponent.
I don’t foresee the Bobcats improving in this respect with an ongoing youth movement in an already massively unproven and weak front seven.
Texas State Run Offense vs. SMU Run Defense
Texas State desperately needs a balanced offensive attack in order to help out its struggling quarterback.
With SMU suffering multiple important losses along its defensive line, one may want to argue that Texas State has an advantage in its ground attack.
The problem is twofold. One, SMU’s defensive weakness matches Texas State’s offensive weakness. In fact, the Bobcats boasted one of the very worst rush attacks in college football as measured by rush yards per game.
Two, Texas State does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with SMU. When SMU generates a significant enough deficit for the Bobcats, then they will have to give up on the run.
Tyler Vitt
Texas State quarterback Tyler Vitt was sacked so many times last season.
But I am not making excuses for him. He was not a deep-field passer and yet he still threw more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (11).
Plus, SMU was able to add unique talent in its front seven in order to prepare for offseason departures.
One contributor will be Auburn transfer Richard McBryde. Last season, he amassed 99 tackles plus four sacks.
Transfers from UCLA and Arkansas will add competitive depth to the Mustang secondary.
The Verdict
SMU’s pass attack remains strong while its relative deficiency at running back will be imperceptible thanks to Texas State’s woeful and continuously young and unproven front seven.
Texas State’s exposed pass defense will give Tyler Vitt an assignment that is far too difficult for him thanks to his absence of downfield confidence and his interception problem.
With Vitt’s involvement increasingly relied upon as Texas State’s deficit rises, the Bobcats will continue to showcase an offensive ineptitude that will make life easier for the Mustangs on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet: Mustangs -20.5 (-105) with Heritage
SMU Mustangs vs Texas State Bobcats
Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas
What SMU Needs
In order to cover the spread, SMU will need to rely heavily on its pass attack.
While the fact that the Mustangs ranked 51st in highest pass play percentage last year isn’t radically indicative of a pass-first team, the services of two departed running backs (Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones) will no longer be available to them.
Texas State’s Pass Defense
On first glance, Texas State’s pass defense numbers seem impressive and therefore seem able to provide justification for a play on Texas State.
However, a look into the Bobcats’ game-by-game performances tells a more honest story.
Largely, Texas State benefitted by facing many opponents with soft passing attacks. Its pass defense numbers also benefitted by facing superior pass attacks who concealed their potency after their team garnered an insurmountable lead.
Last year, SMU fit into the latter category. The Mustangs won 47-17 with quarterback Shane Buechele only having to attempt 18 passes.
When the Bobcats did have to reckon with strong passing attacks, the outcome was negative for them.
For example, Troy’s Kaleb Barker amassed almost 400 yards, six touchdowns, and a very high completion percentage against the Bobcats’ supposedly strong pass defense.
SMU’s Pass Attack
Considering SMU’s departures at running back, we should see more of former Texas Longhorn quarterback Shane Buechele.
In his first year at SMU, last year, he nearly reached 4,000 yards passing and he amassed 34 touchdowns to 10 interceptions while completing 62.7 percent of his passes.
Like last year, Buechele will enjoy a deep and deeply talented corps of wide receivers.
Above all, he hopes that, this year, Reggie Roberson Jr. will stay healthy for the entire season. If he’s able to do so, Buechele’s season numbers stand to skyrocket.
The former West Virginia transfer eclipsed 800 yards and was accumulating 18.7 YPC before the eighth game of the season in which he suffered a season-ending injury.
SMU Rush Attack vs. Texas State Run Defense
Despite losing quality depth at the running back position, the Mustangs will still challenge the Bobcats with a versatile offense featuring a dangerous ground game.
As a Freshman, TJ McDaniel actually led the Bobcats in YPC (5.8). He simply didn’t get the amount of carries required to produce high yardage totals for the season.
But now it is his time to shine. After amassing 159 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s rendition of this match-up, McDaniel promises to establish a strong start to his season of greater responsibility.
Teams knew, last year, to run heavily on the Bobcats. They ranked 120th in allowing an average of 229.6 rush yards per game. Hence, Texas State was easily McDaniel’s favorite opponent.
I don’t foresee the Bobcats improving in this respect with an ongoing youth movement in an already massively unproven and weak front seven.
Texas State Run Offense vs. SMU Run Defense
Texas State desperately needs a balanced offensive attack in order to help out its struggling quarterback.
With SMU suffering multiple important losses along its defensive line, one may want to argue that Texas State has an advantage in its ground attack.
The problem is twofold. One, SMU’s defensive weakness matches Texas State’s offensive weakness. In fact, the Bobcats boasted one of the very worst rush attacks in college football as measured by rush yards per game.
Two, Texas State does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with SMU. When SMU generates a significant enough deficit for the Bobcats, then they will have to give up on the run.
Tyler Vitt
Texas State quarterback Tyler Vitt was sacked so many times last season.
But I am not making excuses for him. He was not a deep-field passer and yet he still threw more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (11).
Plus, SMU was able to add unique talent in its front seven in order to prepare for offseason departures.
One contributor will be Auburn transfer Richard McBryde. Last season, he amassed 99 tackles plus four sacks.
Transfers from UCLA and Arkansas will add competitive depth to the Mustang secondary.
The Verdict
SMU’s pass attack remains strong while its relative deficiency at running back will be imperceptible thanks to Texas State’s woeful and continuously young and unproven front seven.
Texas State’s exposed pass defense will give Tyler Vitt an assignment that is far too difficult for him thanks to his absence of downfield confidence and his interception problem.
With Vitt’s involvement increasingly relied upon as Texas State’s deficit rises, the Bobcats will continue to showcase an offensive ineptitude that will make life easier for the Mustangs on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet: Mustangs -20.5 (-105) with Heritage
