SMU vs. Cincinnati College Football Week 12 Expert Picks
SMU Mustangs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati
The Odds
SMU is an underdog for the second time this season.
The first time was in Week 4 when TCU hosted the Mustangs as 9.5-point favorites. SMU covered the spread and won straight-up on the road.
Cincinnati was favored by four points at Indiana and by two points at Notre Dame. In every other contest, though, the Bearcats have been favored by double digits.
This SMU game will be the ninth time in which they are a double-digit favorite.
The key odds-related trend to note is that the Bearcats have failed to cover a double-digit spread four times in a row. Moreover, they currently suffer an 0-4 ATS streak.
Basically, they take a long time to separate themselves from the opponent.
In their last game against 2-8 South Florida, for example, they actually let the Bulls start out in front and they did not take the lead until the second quarter.
Before escaping Tulsa, the Bearcats only led 14-12 at half against 1-9 Tulane.
It is hard for a favorite to cover a double-digit spread when it spends so much time messing around, sleepwalking, or whatever you want to call Cincinnati's tendency to let its lower-ranked opponent hang around.
There are two things that I wish to elaborate on in connection with this tendency: one, the Bearcats need to be explosive offensively in order to score more points in the less time that their "messing around" allows them. Two, SMU is not a team that Cincinnati will want to let hang around.
Ground Game
Cincinnati's highest-scoring and most explosive offensive outputs have coincided with its rushing attack's strongest performances.
The Bearcats have exceeded 40 points four times this season: against Miami of Ohio, Temple, UCF, and South Florida.
They amassed over 240 rushing yards against the first three of those four opponents and then ran for 202 against South Florida.
Recently, SMU lost to Houston and Memphis teams that rely heavily on passing in order to drive downfield. This reliance created a match-up disadvantage for the Mustang defense.
Cincinnati does not resemble Memphis or Houston in that the Bearcats are more reliant on running the ball, as also evident in their rushing yards percentage ranking.
With an offense that will not typically produce 300 or 400 passing yards, they do not match up well against the Mustangs' defense.
As measured by rush yards per game allowed, the Mustang run defense ranks 27th nationally. SMU excels at limiting opposing ball-carriers and will therefore punish the Bearcats for wanting to run a lot.
The Mustangs' most dominant performances against the run have come most recent. Despite a 58-yard scamper with the game out of reach notwithstanding, SMU held UCF to 124 rushing yards on 4.4 YPC with that one meaningless run accounting for almost half of UCF's rushing total.
Against Memphis, SMU allowed an absurd 0.8 YPC on 36 carries, which is quite impressive even though Memphis is very pass-first.
SMU Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
While its offense struggles to get the ground game going, Cincinnati will struggle defending SMU's ground game.
The Bearcat run defense has been problematic lately, often evincing an inability to shed blockers and to get off of blocks. Opposing ball-carriers are finding significant extents of operating room and are otherwise finding ways to make big plays.
Before allowing 28 points to South Florida, the Bearcats allowed Tulsa, for example, to amass 297 rushing yards on 57 carries.
Like Tulsa, the Mustangs own two superb running backs: Tre Siggers leads them in rushing yards while Ulysses Bentley is not far behind with his 7.1 YPC.
Their success against Cincinnati's 72nd-ranked run defense will support AAC passing leader Tanner Mordecai.
Mordecai will help pose by far the toughest challenge that the Bearcat pass defense will have faced in terms of AAC competition.
While the same can be said for Cincinnati's pass defense in relation to Mordecai, Mordecai has amassed ridiculous amounts of passing touchdowns and passing yards in addition to boasting a 168.4 passer rating.
Last week, he accrued 377 passing yards against a Golden Knight pass defense that ranks 24th nationally in limiting the opponent's passer rating.
SMU's pass attack is difficult to contain given its spread principles and its variety of speedy skill players who will attack the open spaces in the middle of the field and elsewhere.
The Verdict
Cincinnati will let another team hang around, this time a Mustang squad that can do a lot of damage both running and passing the ball and that, on defense, will punish the Bearcats for their reliance on running the ball.
Best Bet: Mustangs +12.5 at -115 with BetOnline
SMU Mustangs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati
The Odds
SMU is an underdog for the second time this season.
The first time was in Week 4 when TCU hosted the Mustangs as 9.5-point favorites. SMU covered the spread and won straight-up on the road.
Cincinnati was favored by four points at Indiana and by two points at Notre Dame. In every other contest, though, the Bearcats have been favored by double digits.
This SMU game will be the ninth time in which they are a double-digit favorite.
The key odds-related trend to note is that the Bearcats have failed to cover a double-digit spread four times in a row. Moreover, they currently suffer an 0-4 ATS streak.
Basically, they take a long time to separate themselves from the opponent.
In their last game against 2-8 South Florida, for example, they actually let the Bulls start out in front and they did not take the lead until the second quarter.
Before escaping Tulsa, the Bearcats only led 14-12 at half against 1-9 Tulane.
It is hard for a favorite to cover a double-digit spread when it spends so much time messing around, sleepwalking, or whatever you want to call Cincinnati's tendency to let its lower-ranked opponent hang around.
There are two things that I wish to elaborate on in connection with this tendency: one, the Bearcats need to be explosive offensively in order to score more points in the less time that their "messing around" allows them. Two, SMU is not a team that Cincinnati will want to let hang around.
Ground Game
Cincinnati's highest-scoring and most explosive offensive outputs have coincided with its rushing attack's strongest performances.
The Bearcats have exceeded 40 points four times this season: against Miami of Ohio, Temple, UCF, and South Florida.
They amassed over 240 rushing yards against the first three of those four opponents and then ran for 202 against South Florida.
Recently, SMU lost to Houston and Memphis teams that rely heavily on passing in order to drive downfield. This reliance created a match-up disadvantage for the Mustang defense.
Cincinnati does not resemble Memphis or Houston in that the Bearcats are more reliant on running the ball, as also evident in their rushing yards percentage ranking.
With an offense that will not typically produce 300 or 400 passing yards, they do not match up well against the Mustangs' defense.
As measured by rush yards per game allowed, the Mustang run defense ranks 27th nationally. SMU excels at limiting opposing ball-carriers and will therefore punish the Bearcats for wanting to run a lot.
The Mustangs' most dominant performances against the run have come most recent. Despite a 58-yard scamper with the game out of reach notwithstanding, SMU held UCF to 124 rushing yards on 4.4 YPC with that one meaningless run accounting for almost half of UCF's rushing total.
Against Memphis, SMU allowed an absurd 0.8 YPC on 36 carries, which is quite impressive even though Memphis is very pass-first.
SMU Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
While its offense struggles to get the ground game going, Cincinnati will struggle defending SMU's ground game.
The Bearcat run defense has been problematic lately, often evincing an inability to shed blockers and to get off of blocks. Opposing ball-carriers are finding significant extents of operating room and are otherwise finding ways to make big plays.
Before allowing 28 points to South Florida, the Bearcats allowed Tulsa, for example, to amass 297 rushing yards on 57 carries.
Like Tulsa, the Mustangs own two superb running backs: Tre Siggers leads them in rushing yards while Ulysses Bentley is not far behind with his 7.1 YPC.
Their success against Cincinnati's 72nd-ranked run defense will support AAC passing leader Tanner Mordecai.
Mordecai will help pose by far the toughest challenge that the Bearcat pass defense will have faced in terms of AAC competition.
While the same can be said for Cincinnati's pass defense in relation to Mordecai, Mordecai has amassed ridiculous amounts of passing touchdowns and passing yards in addition to boasting a 168.4 passer rating.
Last week, he accrued 377 passing yards against a Golden Knight pass defense that ranks 24th nationally in limiting the opponent's passer rating.
SMU's pass attack is difficult to contain given its spread principles and its variety of speedy skill players who will attack the open spaces in the middle of the field and elsewhere.
The Verdict
Cincinnati will let another team hang around, this time a Mustang squad that can do a lot of damage both running and passing the ball and that, on defense, will punish the Bearcats for their reliance on running the ball.
Best Bet: Mustangs +12.5 at -115 with BetOnline
