smo1a Week 9 CFB

smo1a

smo1a

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 54-39-5 +1234 58%
Week 8 Recap: 4-8 -358


Last week started strong going 2-0 on weekday plays and plus 3 units, but fell apart on Saturday with a dismal 1-8 day losing 7.5 units. I hit my Sunday night play for a unit and finished the week losing a little over 3.5 units. For the season, I am doing great on all "non-Saturday" games. Gotta get my Saturday plays going in the right direction.

This week, I am looking to capitalize on just a few games and incresing the units on those plays. My biggest mistake last week was playing so many games and not spending enough time capping those contests. With time being restricted now, I'll just play what I have time to cap. That being said, I have not locked in anything, and prolly won't until mid week or so. When I make a play, I'll post updates right here.

Locked in Plays:

10/26
@ VA TECH +4.5 -108 5 UNITS

10/27
TEASER: @ TULSA -7 / UNDER 61.5 -120 2 UNITS

10/28
NOTRE DAME 1ST HALF -7 -105 3 UNITS
@ OREGON -27 -105 5 UNITS

Leans:


Buffalo
Northwestern
Texas Tech
Baylor
Iowa St
South Carolina
Oregon St
Marshall
Troy
Rutgers

These are the games I will research and try to pick from. Gonna watch line moves and money movement. From this group, I'll prolly go with 2-3 plays. If any of you guys have thoughts, love to hear them.

Looking for a nice rebound this week!
 
Last edited:
The only play you have posted there that I like, and am playing, is Buffalo. So, good luck on the others and whatever decisions you make.
beer.gif
 
CLEMSON @ VA TECH

Public is hamering Clemson in this ACC clash on Thursday night. Clemson was very impressive in their dismanteling of a stout Ga Tech defense last week. The Tigers rushing attack is fierce and built with a lot of speed. After a scare at Wake Forrest, the Tigers have responded with solid play. Heading into Blacksburg will be a challenge for Clemson as the Hokies should be ready to protect their home turf. After a nice win against an overmatched So Miss team, Va Tech comes in with a great performance from RB Brandon Ore breaking out for 200+ yards. After the dismal performance against Ga Tech at home and BC on the road, the So Miss game has gotten this teams confidence back, which will be key in this contest. You know the crowd should play a factor and be loud and hopefully disrupt the Tigers. If Va tech can hang early and keep the crowd in the game, they have a shot to win outright. The passsing game will need to be supported by the run with managable 2nd & 3rd down plays. Tech's Defense has to contain all the talent that Clemson will throw at them. It is rare to see the Hokies as a home dog, and when they are, they play well. I have a lot of respect for Frank Beamer and really believe the Hokies can save their season and Coastal division chances with a pivotal win Thursday night. I have always loved home teams in the mid week games and there is no exception here in Hokieland.

VA TECH +4.5 -108 (5 UNITS)
 
Last edited:
SoonerBS said:
The only play you have posted there that I like, and am playing, is Buffalo. So, good luck on the others and whatever decisions you make.
beer.gif
Click to expand...


Thanks for the input Den. Still debating the Buffalo play, but prolly gonna lay off right now.
 
PORTLAND ST @ OREGON

Oregon looking for someone to pick on this week and low and behold we have a sacrificial lamb. Cal took care of them earlier this year 42-16. Upon further review, that was also the score at the half. Not sure what the hell happened the rest of the way, but I imagine that the Bears played the 3rd & 4th stringers in the 2nd half and prolly fell down before ever reaching the endzone. Portland State is a solid D1-AA team and I got burned on Northern Iowa against Iowa St earlier this year, but I thing the Ducks are looking to take out a little frustration after the loss to Wazzu last week. Keepers ratings show the Ducks as a 50 point fav, and the line is set at -27 on Pinny.

WTF, I'll roll with that!

OREGON -27 -105 5 UNITS
 
smo1a said:
YTD: 54-39-5 +1234 58%
Week 8 Recap: 4-8 -358


Last week started strong going 2-0 on weekday plays and plus 3 units, but fell apart on Saturday with a dismal 1-8 day losing 7.5 units. I hit my Sunday night play for a unit and finished the week losing a little over 3.5 units. For the season, I am doing great on all "non-Saturday" games. Gotta get my Saturday plays going in the right direction.

This week, I am looking to capitalize on just a few games and incresing the units on those plays. My biggest mistake last week was playing so many games and not spending enough time capping those contests. With time being restricted now, I'll just play what I have time to cap. That being said, I have not locked in anything, and prolly won't until mid week or so. When I make a play, I'll post updates right here.

Locked in Plays:

10/26
@ VA TECH +4.5 -108 5 UNITS
(Already on it..Nice write-up)
10/28
@ OREGON -27 -105 5 UNITS

Leans:


UTEP
Buffalo(Seems like a popular play. BC isn't an offenisve machine)
Northwestern(Love it. The value is gone though from the line)
Texas Tech
Baylor
Iowa St(On it pretty big...solid play..Kst is a joke)
South Carolina(on this big too...you might want to wait for pub to push line back)
Oregon St
Marshall
Troy
Rutgers

These are the games I will research and try to pick from. Gonna watch line moves and money movement. From this group, I'll prolly go with 2-3 plays. If any of you guys have thoughts, love to hear them.

Looking for a nice rebound this week!
Click to expand...



Best of luck this week bro!:cheers:
 
B.A.R. said:
Best of luck this week bro!:cheers:
Click to expand...

Thanks BAR. Nice win we all had last night. Looks like the great Doctor Bob has not helped me with my leans. I am seriously pondering hitting Michigan right now at -30. ISU line is down to +4, so still looking hard at that one as well. Might just make a small ML play on ISU. Having a hard time right now as many lines have moved against my leans.
 
UTEP @ TULSA

Tulsa is the real deal and looking pretty damn good. I had no intention of touching this one as I initially leaned toward UTEP, but kept having 2nd thoughts. If the Tulsa pass D can keep Palmer in check, I see a good Tulsa win and locking up the division. Friday night prime time and no competition for ratings (who the hell is watching the World Series anyway ;-) should have the Hurricane team fired up for a good showing. Weather may not play as much of a factor as earlier indicated, but I don't see a high score if Tulsa can control the clock with their rushing attack led by Courtney Tennial. UTEP is facing a stout pass D from Tulsa and has absolutely no ground game whatsoever. Assuming nothing freaky happens and Tulsa shows up and UTEP hangs in, I see a 28-14 type game here. With that in mind, gonna tease this one 7.5 points on the side and total...

7 1/2 PT TEASER: TULSA -7 AND UNDER 61.5 -120 2 UNITS
 
ND @ NAVY

Irish and Navy renew the ass whipping again this Saturday. I am looking for the Irish to come out strong and agressive this week as Charlie & Co are pissed about dropping in the rankings. Irish need to impress pollsters and this will be a good stage "on the road" against Navy. Easily a neutral site at best as the Sub-Way alum will be in full force. Navy with QB rotation should help the Irish cause and if they can contain the option attack, should be able to roll. Should be clearing up rain wise by kick-off, but heavy winds. Look for a short passing game from the Irish. I'm looking for a fast Irish start here so only playing the 1st half...

NOTRE DAME -7 1ST HALF -105 3 UNITS
 
GL smo1a !
Played the same teaser tonite myself.
Tulsa and under will probably hit but this is the safe way.
Love the ND play! have them for 1st half and game.
Without their QB Navy has no chance.
 
I was hoping that a line change may occur in a few games today, but not looking as good.

Updated leans are:

Iowa St (Buy to +5)
Michigan -29.5
Memphis +10 or more (Although I said I was done with them the rest of the year)
Idaho St teased with the under

May see how the Irish do this morning before making another play on the mid games. If ND hits and Oregon, may be done. If Oregon shits the bed, may do the midnight special in Hawaii.

Open to suggestions as the card got tight mid-week.
 
Thanks Rex, Timh, and Rutlemic. Looking forward to the games today. Still looking for the other play!
 
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