smo1a Week 10 CFB

[smo1a]

YTD: 58-39-5 +2734 59%
Week 9 Recap: 4-0 +1500

Huge rebound last week as I went 4-0 and collected 15 units for the week. Year total is now over 27 units. I was very discriminate with my plays last week and it worked out well. I'm gonna go with the same plan this week and look to play only a select few.

Reviewing last week it was nice to see the Home Dogs continue to kill on Thursdays with a nice Va Tech upset over Clemson. That win helps the line with the Miami game as that is a huge lean for this week with the Canes as a home dog. I don't usually play teasers, but the game last week in Tulsa worked out well for me. Notre Dame finally played with passion and woke up to crush the Middies. Closing the day was a nice under the radar play with Oregon only giving 27 points to D1-AA Portland State. Not sure if anyone else played that one, but an easy 5 unit winner for sure.

The biggest winner was sticking to my guns and letting plays ride as they were and not get greedy and go for other plays. I'll take a 15 unit profit every day!

On to this weeks card and so far going through and looking for good situations. Hoping to build from last weeks success. I will post plays in this thread as they are locked in. Write ups will come if time permits for any loked in plays...

Locked & Loaded Plays:

11/1

FRESNO ST / BOISE ST UNDER 58 -107 2 UNITS

11/2

@ LOUISVILLE -2.5 -105 5 UNITS
@ LOUISVILLE ML -110 3 UNITS

11/3

AIR FORCE -5.5 -103 2 UNITS

11/4
@ TEXAS TECH -16 -108 3 UNITS
LSU / TENN UNDER 44 -105 2 UNITS
OKLAHOMA ST +18 -108 3 UNITS
BC -3.5 -110 3 UNITS

11/5
SO MISS/MEMPHIS OVER 46 -105 2 UNITS

Initial Leans:

Clemson
Wisky
Miss St/Bama UNDER
Texas A&M (LEANING OU NOW - FADE DR BOB)
Iowa St +3 / ML or better (FADE DR BOB)
So. Carolina
So. Cal

As always, would love to hear thoughts and comments! Good luck to us all and lets continue to :spank:the books!

 

[smo1a]

WVU @ LOUISVILLE

I have had this one circled for a few weeks and can't wait as this is easily the most anticipated matchup in CFB this week. ESPN should have one of it's highest rated Thursday games in a long time. IMO, everything has shaped up perfectly for this game. Two undefeated teams in what has become the best conference with the likes of resurgent Rutgers and Pitt. I finally feel that this conference is worthy of a BCS bid.

Both teams are sporting solid defense, which seems unusual for Louisville. If Louisville can limit the rushing attack of WVU (and I mean limit, cuz you can't stop it) they have a great shot at a blow out. Last years OT thriller is surely on the minds of the Cards as they look for a little revenge this week. Louisville's offense has been stuck in 2nd gear and this has to have sir Bobby foaming at the mouth. 'Ville's lack luster effort at Syracuse (especially in the 1st half) has created a lot of doubt with the public for Louisville - which is all the better for me. I truly expect to see the Cards pass and RUN roughshod over the Mountaineer defense. With 2 weeks to prepare for both sides, I'm giving the Cards the edge here to get back up to speed and Brohm to get back in sync in his return from injury.

Pinny opend with 'Ville as a 2.5 fav and public is hammering the Mountaineers. Hopefully this continues and the Cards will go to kickoff as the Dog. I believe that 'Ville wins this by at least 10 points with the support of a mad, crazy Pizza Palace crowd. I locked in early at -2.5, but it won't matter. Cards roll, and my Longhorns move up in the BCS as another undefeated team falls!

LOUISVILLE -2.5 -105 5 UNITS

 

[abcs]

I think Baylors qb tore his knee

 

[smo1a]

Just read about Bell in the Dallas Morning News. That is off the radar now. Thanks for the heads up abcs and good luck this week!

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think Baylors qb tore his knee

Yes, he's out for the year..


Tough break..

 

[smo1a]

FRESNO ST @ BOISE ST

Burrrrrr....It's cold in Idaho tonight! Hard to see how BSU could not cover a 23 point spread against a truly dissapointing FSU team, but I'm gonna lay off the side tonight. I don't expect to see a shit load of points tonight and think the 58 seems fairly generous for an overmatched FSU team. I think the BSU defense keeps the Fresno attack at bay and the offense will pound the ball and control the clock. I'm feeling a 35-10 type of game this evening.

FSU / BSU UNDER 58 -107 2 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

Just added 3 more units to Louisville on the money line -110. So that's 8 units on this game, and biggest bet of the year in CFB. If everyone in Papa Johns is really iin black, it should be something to see. Can not fucking wait for this one.

After last nights scoring barage in Boise, I'm down 2 units to start the week, so tonights contest is gonna make or break the week for me. Still working on Saturdays card pending tonights result and considering a play on Air Force for Friday.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[smo1a]

OKLAHOMA ST @ TEXAS

As a Horns fan and alum, I hate playing OSU, primarily because of the infamous comebacks and near heart attacks from being down early (and big) the last couple of years. This year, OSU has had a relatively easy non-conference schedule with Houston being the toughest and a resulting loss. So far, it's been an up and down ride for the Cowboys in Big 12 play, but how can you not be impressed with the utter distruction of Nebraska? OSU is sporting one the best offenses in CFB this year and their best offense since Barry Sanders was roaming the field in Stillwater. The Reid, Woods, Bowman, Savage/Hamilton combination has been spectacular. Bobby reid is still smarting from the lack of interest shown by UT in the recruiting process and would love to put up some numbers against our suspect pass D. On the defensive end, I have not seen much that would stop the UT offense as I expect to see Texas try to control the clock with a steady dose of Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young. Sprinkle in Freshman of the Year candidate Colt McCoy and Limas Sweed, and the Horns should take care of business in Austin baring the need for another comeback win. I expect a lot of scoring but 18 points is alot to give a confident Cowboys team. Hoping for a nice 10-14 point Horn victory. I thought I would hold off on Saturdays gfames pending tonights outcome, but when the line hit -18 (who put that much cash on UT????), I had to bite!

OKLAHOMA ST +18 -108 3 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

BAYLOR @ TEXAS TECH

Last year, when Tech was only a 9 point fav at Baylor, I thought I should literally bet the house with Tech. Tech covered, but it was a close game thru the 3rd quarter before Tech finally pulled away in the 4th and easily covered. Here we have an improved Bears team, but having to go with a RS freshman QB at the helm in Lubbuck. I initially leaned toward Baylor before I knew of the injury. Line was sitting at -17.5 all week and is now down to -16. Why, not sure - especially since Tech WR Jarrett Hicks is expected to play Saturday. If the line drop is a result of the dismissed criminals, who cares as none are integral to this team. Logically, Tech should absolutely roll Saturday afternoon, so I'll give those 16 points.

TEXAS TECH -16 -108 3 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

Waiting to see if the Iowa State line hits +3. Love ISU here, so hopefully Dr. Bob can drive that bitch another 1/2 point! I know a lot of folks like Kansas, but I see 2 shit teams and will side with the home shit team. Planning on a spread & ML play with ISU. If anyone can talk me out of it, please do!

 

[smo1a]

AIR FORCE @ ARMY

After the huge win by Louisville, I feel better about playing friday nights Service Academy (yawn) Thriller. Most of the public is hammering the AFA, and why not? They sport one of the nations best rushing attachs and are facing an Army D that gives up a lot of yards on the ground. Keepers ratings show AFA as a 19 point fav, and I can't see why Air Force can't win this one on the road by at least 10. This one opened at -7 and has dropped to -5.5 at Pinny with the public all over the fav. This situation usually scares me a little, so it's not gonna be a large play for me. The Falcons had a decent outing last week against a very good BYU passing attack and Friday should seem like a Holiday against this Army O.

Looking at past performance, you have Air Force hanging with Tennessee and Navy in tough losses and beating quality opponets like Wyoming and Colorado St. What has Army done? Lost to UConn and crushed by Rice & Tulane. They had a nice come from behind OT win at Baylor, but that may be the exception, as Baylor has no running game what-so-ever!

Sooner BS had an interesting observation about the Service Academy's performance on the road vs at home. The players (military men) get more rest and pampering on the road because when at home (Army), they still get up at the crack of dawn and do the usual business before breakfast and class, etc. - even on game days. So, the road team is prolly more rested - even with the travel.

In conclusion, Air Force extracts a little revenge from last years home loss to Army in a series that has seen the road team go 5-1 ATS in this series.


AIR FORCE -5.5 -103 2 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

LSU @ TENNESSEE

Started leaning to LSU, then liked UT (assuming Ainge goes), then thought more about the defenses. LSU is stout and with Ainge's uncertainty, I don't see a lot of points on the board by UT. Even if Ainge plays, mobility should be a factor. While UT's Defense has a few leaks, they are still pretty solid and I just don't like Les Miles as a game day coach. Also not sold on LSU offense on the raod in a tough environment against a quality D. I can't stop thinking about the UT/Bama score and the LSU/ Auburn score. I think this game has defensive thriller written all over it.

LSU / TENNESSEE UNDER 44 -105 2 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

Looks like Tech should cover at -16. Pending the LSU/TEN game, may call it with what's on my card now. Should I lose that LSU total, prolly hit BC pretty big. Weird shit going on in early games, so a little hesitant. Why fuck up a great week?

 

[smo1a]

Well, just added BC -3.5 -110 for 3 Units. Prolly against my better judgement, but at least on paper and size, Eagles should soar.

 

[smo1a]

Shit Saturday and up only over 2 units for the week. Going 2 units on OVER 46 -105 for SO PISS / MEMPHIS. Hopefully USM can score on shit Memphis D and UM can break out offensively. Good luck to anyone on this shit game!