Slap's end of Aussie Open Plays

[King Slap]

Yeah I haven't been around for the start, but I didn't have much time to read up and follow tennis from end of US Open until about 3 weeks ago. I read a ton at night, studied it like it was my second job just to get a feel from how and what the players did during the offseason. Felt I had several decent reads going into the tournament, but kept it pretty small. I should have went with my gut and put a future on Andy Murray prior to the tournament (though I still like Djoko to take it all, pure value play). I still advise betting Murray although I think Berdych/Murray next round (if it gets there) will be the matchup of the tournament and maybe year. Both playing incredible.

Ok so lets get to it, there is a big blizzard hitting RI tonight/tomorrow so who knows if I will be able to post tomorrow, but I will try.

This is my largest bet so far (but, Azarenka vs my baby Cibulkova was my largest prior so lets see how I do....haha, I'm not much of a WTA guy so don't worry)

Berdych +168 (reduced juice on 5dimes) - Risking $600.00 to win $1008.00


Hitting this match hard for multiple reasons. First, lets get this out of the way -- yes Nadal is 15-0 against Berdych...I know...I know...I don't care. This is a new match, I do not look at H2H the way many do, I did when I first started following and betting tennis actively years ago (with the top guys, smaller matchups and tournys it does still factor in I won't deny that)...simply put, Berdych is in better form that Nadal right now. It's tough to even say, but I will say it, Berdych is the better player right now, and I believe will be all year. Lets not forget that Nadal has barely faced any decent competition (surely to Berdych class and standards) in months. Yeah, its Berdych, but that same Berdych would be favored if it wasn't for the 15-0 H2H.

To be blunt and get this up quickly, as I know the match may start in an hourish due to Pova's current beatdown of Genie, I will say this...I made the match Berdych -120 up to -150...the realist in me knew books could take Nadal money so I figured maybe Nadal -200 up to -230 max...much to my surprise I got around where I expected with Nadal -178 I believe when I first saw. I am on Berdych big, more than likely the biggest the way the draw is unfolding.

Feel free to ask any questions, I will be around until the start...


FWIW here is my only play tomorrow as I'm not sure I'll have power in time, but I am not going to post a writeup right now

Wawrinka +112 over Nishikori - Risking $400.00 to win $448.00....all I will say is NEVER DOG THE CHAMP

Looking into Milos but interested to see what his nerves are like come A.M. I may play him,



How I see it shaping up?

A classic final 4

Djokovic/Wawa - Djoko -320 fav

Murray/Berdych - Murray -170 fav



Final

Murray/Djokovic - Djoko -220 fave

 

[Schrute]

Get it Slap

 

[King Slap]

Too easy. I am sorry for posting late. Just literally no time guys and don't have the interest trying to catch the eye of a tout site

I posted this in the in-game:

[h=2]

[/h]

This is the perfect result. Berdych with an utter domination of Nadal. 3-0 upcoming, swaying the Berdych/Murray line to possibly -110/-110 (standard) or maybe Murray -130 max. This is PERFECT

Though Berdych looks like the fucking terminator right now. I can't wait to see if Murray pastes a 3-0 himself
​

 

[King Slap]

Format got fucked up and posted automatically so I'll finish here...but yeah, hilarious that the announcers are now trying to hype up the "is he injured" plot point. They definitely aren't saying this in Australia, China, East Euro, etc.

Nadal was due to be crushed. Murray needs to show that he's got the mental fortitude finally and come out and paste this ego fueled 19 year old in his home country....Kyrgios gonna have the crowd hyped, thats no doubt. Murray will win first set I have no doubt, the only concern is 2nd when crowd goes nuts trying to get behind Kyrgios to will him to a 1-1 split. I believe Murray will show what he is going to show us this entire year and battle to a 3-0 to make a statement that he's ready for Berdych.

Murray 3-0 (+105) - Risking $150 to win $165

 

[cxbbum]

nice work Slap, wish I'd have popped in here before I threw away money on Nadal, lol

gl the rest of the way my brah....\m/

 

[Noles4life]

Nice hits.. Agreed with murray n felt he paste kyrios.. But i give him credit played tough n if he pulled the 2nd out who knows.. But murray i think wanted to show hes elite n can do the same as a joker/nadal/fed in these moments... Like Stanimal tonight... Murray -130 like u said n love him tom.... Milos + games looks good i know he wants to beat these big guns in this stage , just unsure he has tools n thought under but after seein joker he seems satisfied with a 7-6 7-6 6-3 type of score line he gets down 30-0 wont see him fightin he will wait for his openin n pounce or take it in TB milos poses no threat to joker.... Any thoughts with the womens? Think serena steam rolls... The other should b a doozy.. Penis at -150 seems value have to believe keys is tight in this spot n venus capatilizes just worried that early start wont be a intimidatin atmosphere which helps keys... Plus not seein much of keys this tourny im a lil blind i know she hits a big ball n could hurt venus n venus def has her moments when she sprays balls like 2nd set vs aga but she looked in great form in 3rd after bein broke to open set....Was hopin keys was closer to +180 n take a stab maybe hold my nose n take over. Thanks for the posts like readin ur analysis

 

[Toronto_Mike]

nice hit on Berdych and yes it sets up very very well for Murray matchup that's back to back semi's now.
end of the day if these two do end up playing a war of a match they will be shot vs any other guy.
GL

 

[HUNT]

:tiphat::cheers3:

 

[tazz]

good call on berdych and murray 3-0 slaptron

 

[King Slap]

I will be on Berdych tbh...writeup coming shortly

 

[Noles4life]

i will be curious if u think the coach for birdy is ur main factor as he knows murray game inside out.... i know there boys but boy murray will want this baaaaaaaad .... any thoughs with wawa/joker? didnt see joker match but figured he just plug away... by far best stanimal has looked i think it will be a classic match like last yr joker will surely want revenge and scary part is hes #1 player and quietly in semis nobody really talkin bout em just handing business ...stan will play with no pressure which is dangerous the key will be his serve if he can get free points and easy service games he will hit more freely and give him opp on joker serve... ill be on the over myself as i feel thats the best play see 4-5 close sets....maybe a lil ML on stan VALUE sake....

 

[King Slap]

Huge factor.

I'm watching Celtics game intently but my bet on Berdych is

Tomas +130 - Risking $400.00 to win $520.00

 

[King Slap]

All value on Stan btw. Though I expect Joker to win, Stan is a must bet pure value wise. I will probably have around 200-300 on him

 

[P-Unit]

GL Slap.

 

[King Slap]

Made this match in Joko favor -120, 130 max

will try to get thoughts up, on mobile

Andy Murray +195 - Risking 300.00 to win 585.00

 

[cxbbum]

love it Slap, luck to us....let's cash this MF....\m/

 

[King Slap]

I'm watching the UFC fights now so tough to post but will jot down a few thoughts

Murray playing best tennis in this tournament, no question. Still befuddled that I made the mistake I constantly make year after year by buying into a guy like Berdych vs him. However, still tough to trust Murray mentally. He has to show me tonight that he wants to be the best. I truly believe he does. Djokovic has NOT looked like a 1/1 favorite this tournament, I'm sorry...

We have the two best defenders in the world, Andy currently mashing the ball and hitting the spots. Djoker not so much. I expect a surge by Murray to start, then a tightly contested 2nd set. However, a 3-0 Murray win would not shock me. I will not bet 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 or any of that junk because it really hinges on such minute shit that it could go either way

HOWEVER. Murray cannot be +195 in this current form. CANNOT. It's a must play, as was Wawa the other night vs Djoker. We will win more than we lose exploiting these lines all years my fellow ghost followers

 

[KJ]

Alright Slap I'm gonna play along with a half unit at +195 and two units on the +4, hope I can make it long enough to watch

 

[Wikeman]

It's always hard to go against Djokovic, he didn't show his best in the SF. It was like a cruel joke that the took Stanimal to set five, just to bagel him.
Djokovic beat Murray four times in 2014, but possibly Murray was not 100% after the back operation in september 2013. In earlier years we've seen that Murray can win over Djokovic. I'm slightly less optimistic than you, but I agree on the value, especially since I can get above odds +200 right now.