Skins/Boys

scdoggy

scdoggy

Moderator (Honorary)
Two franchises that certainly aren't what they once were, but where I come from this is the only game in town this weekend, so let's get into it.

Initial lean here is to blindly take the over. Cowboys have been running the ball exceptionally well in recent weeks with DeMarco Murray who has gone well over 100 yards in back to back weeks for the first time this season vs. Chi and GB. Skins rush defense isn't much better and he should get his share this again this week. Morris meanwhile is coming off a decent week, but has been held in check by some decent run defenses prior to that (KC, NYG, SF) but should get back to doing his thing against an awful Dallas run D. Cousins showed he can throw on a shitty defense, and I expect him to do it again this week. Romo also should shred Washington's shitty secondary.

Since opening in 1997, this is only the fourth time in history that a total of 50 or more has been set for a Redskins home game. Anyone familiar with this place knows it is the worst turf in the NFL and tends to slow down opposing offenses. Two of the previous three games with totals over 50 went under, with the only over being their season opener against the Debut of Chip Kelly's shiny new Philly offense that operated at warp speed that night, even by Chip's standards. But here's where it gets interesting. Dallas runs the fewest offensive plays per game in the NFL at 60 per game. Washington runs the 4th most with 69 per game.

Dallas is still alive for the playoffs and needs this game. They are coming off their fifth straight OVER result. There are accusations of Dez quitting on them after walking off the field so he should be plenty motivated this week. And with the way Murray has been running the ball, I don't see the Dallas offense having trouble scoring unless the field stops them. Its tough not to like the Dallas team total over here. Washington has allowed 24 or more points in every game this season except Oakland (14). The weather here is calling for temps in the low 70's this weekend. Unseasonably warm to say the least.

Some interesting numbers to point out:

Washington defense is 6th in the league on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert only 34.7% of the time.
Dallas defense is 30th in the NFL allowing 43.6% conversions.

Washington offense is 9th in converting 3rd downs at 41.7%
Dallas offense 24th in the NFL converting only 35.2% of their third downs.

Big advantage to Dallas in turnover differential. At +11 only the Seahawks and Chiefs are better than Dallas.
Skins are at -8. Hard to say how Cousins will effect this number as RGiii was personally responsible for 23 of these turnovers this season. His ability to fumble the football is surpassed only by the great Daunte Culpepper, if memory serves. Griffin has lost 23 fumbles since entering the league....

Also a big advantage in kickoff and punt returns for Dallas. Skins have no breakaway threat in this department, and are awful at covering on special teams.

Big advantage to Dallas when I look at this game on paper, but can you really back them as a road fave? Even being as objective as possible about this doesn't allow me to advocate a play on this team. They have one of the worst coaches in the league, and are laying points on the road to a team who just may be excited to have a reasonable option at QB for the first time this season...

Still leaning Dallas TT over. What do you see?


3rd down defense
 
Dallas red zone offense scoring TD's over 70% of the time (good for third best in the NFL).
 
More fuel for the over, and the Dallas TT over:

Washington Red Zone defense 31st in the NFL allowing TD 67.31% of the time.

How's Dallas?

30th in the NFL at 64.81%. These are truly awful numbers. To give some perspective here, Detroit and Seattle are both well under 40%...
 
Might be an auto-Over bet with these 2 pathetic defenses. We need to be careful not to overrate last week too much. Skins O looked good with Cousins, but that ATL team isn't very good. DAL collapsed again under Romo, but this is a must win for them this week.

As an Eagles fan, I'm rooting hard for the Skins. These division rivals hate each other, and I see the Skins getting up for this game in hopes of knocking the Cowboys out of contention. This is basically the Skins biggest game of the year. WASH play calling always scares me. The logical game plan should involve pounding Alf Morris until he collapses with 30+ carries against a D with horrible linebackers, while keeping the Dallas offense on the sidelines.

Knowing WASH, I think they find a way to put Cousins in bad positions, and he makes some key turnovers. As much as I want WASH to win, I think DAL comes out focused and wins.

Key Note: The NFL decided to flex SNF prematurely by showing Bears vs. Eagles. That will be a bad move if Dallas wins because that game means nothing for the Eagles. If WASH wins, then Eagles can clinch the division with a win on SNF. The NFL surely would love to have the Bears and Eagles both playing for something in prime time on national tv. I'm not predicting a conspiracy, but it's something to keep in mind.
 
I always try hard not to overreact to one week. Dallas will surely blitz Cousins. It will be interesting to see how he handles it.

You are right on paper - Dallas looks like the play. But I couldn't back them on the road, and with the Skins covering 6 of last 7 in this rivalry its tough to make a case for the Boys here.
 
its really difficult to take the under... thats for sure

but i hate taking over in division games
 
The fear you have with the over is that both teams should strongly consider committing to the run game to keep their defenses off the field. No chance Dallas gets pass happy with a lead after last week. I think the best way to play it is to tease the Skins up and the Over down. I did that the minute the line came out and feel that Skins +10/o 46 is solid.

There will be points, but I'm not comfortable enough to think there will be 55. Probably a 28-24 contest.
 
The annual Dallas swoon in December appears to be in full blast. Bears ran it up. Flynn who is avg. at best put up 37. Sean Lee is out.

Cousins is pretty good and the Skins have the running game to do play action and just toy with Dallas.
 
Weather update for Sunday certainly makes things interesting.

50% chance of strong thunderstorms with winds sustaining at 22 mph. if this forecast holds true, under 53.5 right now is an early xmas gift....
 
Fuck it. I'm seeing a 53.5 still while a bunch of places are already moving down. Just bought this to UNDER 54 -120 for two units
 
love your threads....hell, based on winds I will tail on under.

fwiw i actually capped this horrible game @ 51 anyway
 
I just bought some under 54 -120 as well. Weather like that will only reinforce the desire the run the ball and shorten the game.

Hopefully I can hit the middle between 46 and 54!
 
What a waste of a writeup leaning over, but you just can't ignore wind and I like being on unders on this field. Let's hope this forecast holds true. Lotta green between now and then...
 
I live in Philly and its going to be 70 degrees here Sunday...how is it going to be so different 2.5 hrs away?
 
Its going to be warm. I never said anything about cold. Yesterday weather.com was predicting "heavy T storms and winds" which would make sense with warm temps coming in because its been cold here all week. Now it looks like they've backed off. Probably best to wait this one out.....
 
Great thoughts. I am seeing 17 mph sw crosswinds. Ware and Hatcher questionable with Trent Wiliams being probable . I like Cousins and clearly Shanahan has little to lose, points to make and perhaps more of an axe to grind with Snyder. What did you make of him going for two last week? What do you think it meant? The total seems too scary in a game with so many intangibles. A large majority on both the over and the Boys. If I had to choose one to be contrarian it would be to side with the home dog.
 
I heard a lot of fans bitching about it, but who gives a shit. I think Shanny just said, screw it - what do we have to lose. This game was meaningless in the grand scheme of things, and they had the momentum from running down the field. If he makes it, it gives him something to point to. If they lose - oh well, another loss.
 
D-Woww said:
yeah, going for 2 was the right move, if anyone doesnt think so they dont really get football
Click to expand...

Are you parrotting doggy? Which I agree with or have you attached some deeper more strategic thought? Clearly he put little value in a win to let it be a virtual coin flip. I bet you the Falcons would not have done the same thing because their approach is different. I have listened to enough pressers from them to realize that they want to end strong, build momentum. esprit de corps for the future. They might get blown out at San Fran but they care, and wont throw in the towel because of the injury bug. because winning in the NFL is hard and the draft is a crap shoot. Shanahan struck me as a typical losing, degenerate gambler that said fuck it Im chasing even with no advantage. That team is so fucked, but I like Cousins and Jason garret is retarded.
 
what do u mean? he said that a lot of ppl in washington were upset about the call and all im saying is that those people don't understand football
 
when you are a touchdown underdog on the road, u take the chance to win the game with a 2 yard gain, that an nfl team should be able to get over 50% of the time, as opposed to going to OT where the opportunity resets itself and you are back to being the underdog
 
If this game had postseason implications, I would not have been a fan of the move to go for two. But given that this game was meaningless for either team's playoff chances, I have no issue with it.

If you are 3-12 or whatever the hell their record is, then fuck it - have some balls and go for the win. I think I'm one of the few in this town who doesn't think Mike Shanahan is what's wrong with the Redskins. I also bitched when they ran Schottenheimer out of town.
 
scdoggy said:
If this game had postseason implications, I would not have been a fan of the move to go for two. But given that this game was meaningless for either team's playoff chances, I have no issue with it.

If you are 3-12 or whatever the hell their record is, then fuck it - have some balls and go for the win. I think I'm one of the few in this town who doesn't think Mike Shanahan is what's wrong with the Redskins. I also bitched when they ran Schottenheimer out of town.
Click to expand...

ehh...hypothetical situation:

you are a team, say the Dolphins, who are hanging in the playoff picture but on the road against a real good team would be a heavy dog. lets say they are in denver and shock the broncos by scoring with 20 seconds left to make it a 1 point game.

would you go for 2 there? i would 100 times out of 100. and that game would have playoff implications
 
would you do it in the playoffs as well then? there are 7+ pt underdogs on the road in the playoffs all the time.

it's strictly situational, and in no way would i go for it in your scenario above, just basically telling your possible playoff team that they're not as good as denver (which they are)
 
D - no I would not. They are good enough to get to the end of the game tied (in essence).

You are thinking about this as a gambler, and not as a coach, IMO. Being a +7 dog shouldn't enter a coaches mind.
 
Just some notes. RG3 has not lost 23 fumbles, those are his total fumbles. I think his lost fumbles is 12. (3 rushing and 9 passing (though I don't know how many of his fumbles passing have been recovered by the Skins so the total number is = or <12)

Here is Tony Romo's last 3 years vs. Skins (under haslett).

2013 18-30 170 yards 1 td/1 int
2012 57-99 659 yards 5 td/5 int
2011 45-73 547 yards 3 tds/1 int
 
scdoggy said:
D - no I would not. They are good enough to get to the end of the game tied (in essence).

You are thinking about this as a gambler, and not as a coach, IMO. Being a +7 dog shouldn't enter a coaches mind.
Click to expand...

But, I think any coach worth a shit would realize if his team was even talent wise or a +7 dog. Thus, getting to that point where you make a decision, are you more likely to be the better team in OT or not? Do you trust your special teams and defense (ST- worst in history; defense bottom 5) as much as you trust your offense to get 2 yards (middle of the pack offense)
 
scdoggy said:
D - no I would not. They are good enough to get to the end of the game tied (in essence).

You are thinking about this as a gambler, and not as a coach, IMO. Being a +7 dog shouldn't enter a coaches mind.
Click to expand...

thats false in my opinion. and this goes to what kjohnson said too...but im not saying coaches care about the specific spread per say, but lets be real, a team fighting for the last playoff spot on the road is well aware that they are not as likely to win as the home team that is number 1 in the conference.

in the playoffs, same thing. if you go to overtime, you are basically resetting your % chance to win to what it was pregame, which is not very high. coaches should be realistic about that.

however, ur odds of getting 2 yards on a do or die play should be higher than 50%.

the issue lies in that if they don't get it, the coach gets his head called for. but if he is playing the percentages the correct move is to go for it
 
this becamse a totally different thread by the way, if youd like to discontinue this conversation to get back on track with the Wash/Dal convo, thats completely fine.
 
Leaning Skins as a side, defense playing better.

Concern would be Goodell wanting to make next week's Birds v Cows game somewhat meaningful.

2.5 home dog.
 
what about goodell wanting to make the game he flexed into sunday night super meaningful? that crossed my mind first.
 
Dollaz said:
Just some notes. RG3 has not lost 23 fumbles, those are his total fumbles. I think his lost fumbles is 12. (3 rushing and 9 passing (though I don't know how many of his fumbles passing have been recovered by the Skins so the total number is = or <12)

Here is Tony Romo's last 3 years vs. Skins (under haslett).

2013 18-30 170 yards 1 td/1 int
2012 57-99 659 yards 5 td/5 int
2011 45-73 547 yards 3 tds/1 int
Click to expand...

Dollaz is right on the fumbles for Rgiii. I stand corrected
 
I disagree with you guys if its a meaningful game, going for 2 is not the way I'd go, unless I saw some major flaw that I could exploit (A backup corner playing man, a hole in defense, my O-line was pushing their D line around, etc). A +7 dog that makes it to OT has a much better shot than they did at the beginning of a game. They have shown they can hang for four quarters. Do you think the odds in live betting would be the same on ML as they were when the team was +7 before kick? No chance.
 
doggy im not at all trying to say im right and you are wrong but if ur goal is to do the thing that puts your team in the highest % to win, you go for 2 in those spots.

the only way you would not go for 2 is if you think you have a better chance in OT than you do to get the 2.

In OT, you would have to either get the ball, score a td, or score a fg and stop the other team, or kick, hold the other team and kick a fg, or allow a fg and score a td.

i dont think the odds of any of those happening for a team that is already a fringe playoff contender on the road are better than getting two yards on a conversion.

you go to ot and the home team, who is probalby only in OT with you because they were looking ahead in teh schedule or didnt take you seriously, decides they have to actually start playing.

see tenny/zona last week
 
thing is, even if the %'s that are proven right by analytics people say one thing, 90% of coaches agree wtih you and would kick it and go to OT
 
Yeah, its always situational. In a high scoring game where both defenses suck, its smart to go for two. if the game is 9-10, and scoring has been tough, you kick the PAT and take your chances in OT. I was more responding to you saying you go for it 100 times out of 100, which I totally disagree with.
 
Cousins was carving up (381 yards) a good Falcon secondary. He has charisma and I liked my chances that he would more likely continue succeeding in that game than make an unforced error. It was an evenly matched game and they had momentum. If the game meant nothing, why not play it out and let the players build experience in a more high wire situation or you can just flip a coin and be done with it. He is such a bitch.
 
you guys should read Grantland's Bill Barnwell's weekly "Thank you for not coaching" column. Its great stuff that uses real calculated %'s to determine if coaches made good or bad decisions
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Cousins was carving up (381 yards) a good Falcon secondary. He has charisma and I liked my chances that he would more likely continue succeeding in that game than make an unforced error. It was an evenly matched game and they had momentum. If the game meant nothing, why not play it out and let the players build experience in a more high wire situation or you can just flip a coin and be done with it. He is such a bitch.
Click to expand...

But what if he doesnt get the ball again?
 
Just dug into O/U stats this season for NFC East. As a whole they are 32ov-25U yet divisionally its 9-9 with WSH being only 1ov-3U. I recallooking into this in past years & I'm sure the same could be said for many divisional games but the higher % of unders come from within. Given the inflated line & shit weather, I'll bite on that under.

I will not have the balls to watch it though.
 
Cousins has a lot to prove. The Dallas defense did not suddenly improve... Bad weather shouldn't be the reason you take an under unless the winds are above 20 MPH. Rain can be great for the over IMO. There's over 80% on the over tho
 
Dollaz said:
But what if he doesnt get the ball again?
Click to expand...

If they lose the coin flip and Atlanta drives down the field for a touchdown it would require a large combination of plays, time and execution. Id rather force a team to accomplish a great deal than hope my one play call works. We are talking the under 500 falcons here. Its not like some blatant mismatch. They were ahead at half and drove all the way down the field for the tying touchdown.
 
nbafan88 said:
Cousins has a lot to prove. The Dallas defense did not suddenly improve... Bad weather shouldn't be the reason you take an under unless the winds are above 20 MPH. Rain can be great for the over IMO. There's over 80% on the over tho
Click to expand...

I'm actually a big fan of waiting for bad weather for the number to get bet down and play the over, not in this one tho, here I think the under where to be, not necessarily because of the rain but I don't think that field gonna contribute to scoring. Looks like a slow track to me and more importantly both teams have really good run gms, both are more than capable of shooting themselves in the foot during a long drive, sure the d's are bad but when u talking a number in the 50s bad d isn't a killer when it allows clock eating drives.. I had to eat few tums when I took under no doubt and I have no illusions that it gonna be 13-6 cakewalk but in the end I think we talking 24-23/27-23 type gm..
 
Dallas
Cowboys
Washington
Redskins
Kickoff: 12/22/2013 01:00 PM EST
Scattered showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 71. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
If they lose the coin flip and Atlanta drives down the field for a touchdown it would require a large combination of plays, time and execution. Id rather force a team to accomplish a great deal than hope my one play call works. We are talking the under 500 falcons here. Its not like some blatant mismatch. They were ahead at half and drove all the way down the field for the tying touchdown.
Click to expand...

But Atl has huge adv on special teams (wash worst in history) and when atl has ball (was bottom 5). The only unit that has adv for skins is when they have ball. Why not put it in the hands of only unit that has adv?
 
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