Show me the value

Joe Public

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
All right, we all know the betting public (small 'P') always overreacts based on Week One.

So, based on the results from today, which teams do you think will be overvalued, and undervalued, going into the next week or two?

I have this feeling that Texas and Michigan might benefit from some shorter lines than necessary, Texas more than Michigan as people will probably immediately play Michigan for a bounce-back, but I'd prefer to play that in two weeks rather than one.

Louisville could be overvalued, maybe.

If ND wasn't so damn loved by the country I'd think they might get some value.

I feel like BYU might have slipped under the radar this week.

What about you guys, thoughts?
 
One interesting thing will be to see how VA Tech responds. That's a lot to ask of a team on an emotional day to come out and play with a lot of intensity with so much hype over the off the field activities. When you have tears in your eyes in the tunnel before the game, you're not as ready as you think.

LSU is loaded.......two top 10 picks on the defensive line. VT's effort may be diminished a little in next week's line although ECU has a GOOD defense. I'm not sold on Glennon for VT and I think LSU has its way with them, but VT may prove to be a little better than they showed with all the emotional activities going on prior to tonight's game.

That said....locally, it will be interesting to see how Arkansas State responds against Memphis next week. They are really, really solid this year and lose 21-13 to Texas...but can they rebottle that energy next week in the home opener?
 
By the way, got your message, will respond in a bit--it's f**king 100 degrees in L.A. today and everything is sloooowed down, I'm actually still sweating.

I think VaTech is in a horrible spot next week.

I also think Appalachian (sp?) State is also in a bad place. They're going to party for a week off this win. Please let them play a decent team next week.
 
Well...Appy (safe spelling at this hour) State may not have enough to field a team for next week b/c they might be locked down on the OSU campus. You can talk about Henne and Hart all you want....because people have......but lemme tell you, Appy State has two players that have the speed to play Big 10 football and start.

Call me crazy, but despite several keg stands and fish bowls....Appy State responds and wins a third straight D-IAA title, lol
 
I just ran my numbers for next week and I believe we should see value in Virginia at home. I have them a 20.5 fav and I dont expect to see anything near that number posted after yesterday

Also I have USF only getting a couple pts at Auburn I think we will see value there as well

As for Louisville I have them -41
 
i am in agreement with the above, VT offense looked so abismal yesterday. The offensive line i think looked the worst. They were getting throw around by east carolina 4 man front. Although, the toughest thing to decipher in college football is to determine if V-tech's o line is that bad or they were looking ahead as college football teams often do.

More than likely LSU will be a play but i just hope v tech dosen't look like a national contender in LSU and looks more like the V tech i saw yesterday.
 
SHSUHorn said:
TCU is going to beat Texas.
Click to expand...
:36_11_6: Yeah sure they will.

You go from having 16 units on them against Arkansas St. and thinking they are the greatest team in the country (already picking them to beat Oklahoma)
to saying they are going to get beat by TCU?

Seems like to me you are pouting because your team let you down yesterday and cost you money.

Texas will be fine next week against TCU ,it maybe a closer game than I expected before yesterday but the win still win
 
Capone said:
:36_11_6: Yeah sure they will.

You go from having 16 units on them against Arkansas St. and thinking they are the greatest team in the country (already picking them to beat Oklahoma)
to saying they are going to get beat by TCU?

Seems like to me you are pouting because your team let you down yesterday and cost you money.

Texas will be fine next week against TCU ,it maybe a closer game than I expected before yesterday but the win still win
Click to expand...

Did you watch the game or just see the highlights and box score?
 
I love LSU against VT but I don't think the line will be where I want it (16 instead of 9 or 10). I'll probably take it anyway because:

VT's oline is terrible and Glennon is average or worse. ECU was collapsing the pocket all day and stuffing the run (Ore was averaging <2ypc late in the game. LSU gave up 10 yards to MSU). VT may score once. I think VT will fuck up one of LSU's punts so VT scores 10 -14. Can the LSU offense put up 28 or 31?

After watching ECU look competant against VT, I think so. Flynn looked under control and not willing to make rushed or poor decisions. Couple that with, what everyone is hoping and saying, a more open and aggressive play calling and the LSU offense might roll.

Plus, this game is at 8pm in Tiger Stadium. That's an extra hour of prep for the fans. It's the home opener. It's a slight revenge game from the loss at VT years ago and VT since backed out twice like punk bitches. So the fans will be ready and loud. I think that merits a score.

And Miles is an ass, I think he will make a statement if he can.

LSU 31
VT 13
 
I liked UVA before the season. But a tip about the altitude at Wyoming put me off them. But Duke? Give me a decent line and I am all over them.

ND is my new fade team this year. At PSU? Gimme some.

I like Oklahoma to pull away in the 2H against Miami.

These are just initial impressions. Need to read up and look at the box scores.
 
I think Cal / Colo. St might be worth a look. Cal generated a lot of def/ST points (14) yesterday.
 
Joe Public said:
I also think Appalachian (sp?) State is also in a bad place. They're going to party for a week off this win. Please let them play a decent team next week.
Click to expand...

See who Appalachian State, coming off the Michigan win, plays next week?

Lenoir-Rhyne - After their historic win over Michigan, the Mountaineers will have to prepare for another difficult opponent: Lenoir-Rhyne College of Hickory, North Carolina, a private Lutheran college with an enrollment of 1,500.
 
Space Geauxst said:
I love LSU against VT but I don't think the line will be where I want it (16 instead of 9 or 10). I'll probably take it anyway because:


I think LSU's D is awesome, but I dont like their O at all. I think Beamer's D will shut them down and keep it close.

No chance the line is 16 is it???
Click to expand...
 
My only worry about the VT thing is people overreacting and jumping all over LSU.

I still don't like the spot for VT, but they were either going to give you one of two games yesterday based on all the emotion and the pressure. Either they were going to kick the living piss out of whoever they played, or they were going to be tight.

They were obviously tight.

I still think the emotional drain will hurt them next week, but next week all that pressure is off and if the line is too big, I'll simply stay away.
 
Razor said:
Well...Appy (safe spelling at this hour) State may not have enough to field a team for next week b/c they might be locked down on the OSU campus. You can talk about Henne and Hart all you want....because people have......but lemme tell you, Appy State has two players that have the speed to play Big 10 football and start.

Call me crazy, but despite several keg stands and fish bowls....Appy State responds and wins a third straight D-IAA title, lol
Click to expand...

Razor - I agree completely, as I watched the IAA Final live last year at Chatanooga. UMass defense had done a great job all year long but couldn't stop that option. Edwards and Richardson are really quality ball players with great speed. I know App St. lost about 6 players off their defense so I wasn't thinking they could win outright but knew their offense would provide problems for that Mich. defense. They will be very tough to beat this year in the 1AA as they just exectute so well in that option and Edwards has improved so much throwing the ball.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Did you watch the game or just see the highlights and box score?
Click to expand...


Yes I watched the game.Texas played crappy so what? This whole thread is about not overacting to what happened in week 1.

Could it be Texas over looked Arkansas St. and was thinking about TCU already? Yes, I mean how excited can you get to play Ark St?

Could it be Ark St is better than we thought this year? Yeah

One bad game does not make a season

Just because Idaho was able to move the ball on USC's D that is suppose to be the best in the country does that mean they wont win the BCS? NO

Mack Brown will have his team ready for this game and I guarantee you Texas will not lose this game

Sorry if I came off wrong SHSUhorn but I think you are taking way to much from a opening week bad game
 
RJ Esq said:
I have to agree with Horn: it'll be a coin flip game. If TCU is catching DD or maybe even more than a TD, I'm on 'em.
Click to expand...

I believe it will be closer than I first thought but I still see Texas winning by at least 8-10
 
I just love how this game can make you look so smart (PSU, OU and especially LSU plays) and so damn dumb (uva). Oh well, live and learn.

Least I'm not making crack headed parley and teaser bets this year.
 
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