Sheepishly backing the Spurs tonight...

[rod_steel]

I lost on the Blazers last night. When Lebron drained that first triple I kind of knew what was coming. sigh...

I hate myself for doing this because everything points to this one to being a rout and I will be enjoying it losing money in the process.

Spurs +8 over Suns

Form wise the Spurs don't have a chance to win this one SU. However match up wise, specifically Timmy Duncan they certainly do and proved it time and time again over the past 3 seasons ever since Nash rejoined the Suns having gone 15-7 SU in that span. The Suns do not have enough in their rotation to keep Duncan quiet placing too much on Amare to do the job on him defensively which invariably gets him into early foul trouble. Lot of people keep bringing up the revenge factor from last season's Western Conference SF but Suns got the win in Texas earlier this season. I think that angle may be overplayed slightly by the public tonight which is resulting in this slightly inflated number.

If this game doesn't motivate the Spurs no game on this rodeo road trip will. The Suns are in a very rare position, probably the first time since Nash rejoined them that they enter into a Spurs game as such a warm favourite and expected by the public to win easily. It's an unfamiliar position for them to be in, won't be suprised if this ends up being decided by a couple of baskets either way.

It's also worth noting that if the Spurs lose against the Suns tonight that will match the longest losing streak for the Spurs since they drafted Tim Duncan. This team has been consistently good for 10 years now, a few losses don't turn them into a bad one, certainly not one that should be catching 8 points to anyone IMO.

good luck

 

[Songo]

like it, gl Rod :shake:

 

[Marlo]

Rod

A couple questions I asked myself in this game was:

• Did the Suns get enough revenge in there earlier victory?
• How does the loss of TP affect them in Phoenix?
• If this game was played in San, what would be the line?
• The Suns may not stop TD from getting 25-10, but can manu, bowen, etc...get the rest.
• Will the Suns run n gun against SA, who is currently on the 3rd game of the Rodeo trip where they apparently decided "this is when they were going to turn it up a notch"? Where they already have 2 dismall loses.

 

[Master P]

:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

not just timmy....whoever Nash is guarding can and will abuse the hell out of him tonight.

GL rod. Maybe you'll get a Phoenix win by 2.

he wait, Rod, are you GOING to this game...?

 

[MemphisFan]

not just timmy....whoever Nash is guarding can and will abuse the hell out of him tonight.

GL rod. Maybe you'll get a Phoenix win by 2.

he wait, Rod, are you GOING to this game...?

:36_11_6:

Jacque Vaughn couldn't abuse an empty gym. 37 minutes, 4 points, against Luke 'Lockdown' Ridnour.

I actually like the U202 better. If you think the Spurs cover the only way is if they keep the Suns under 100 IMO.

 

[Pirate88]

Gl Rod, leaning on the under

 

[Retburj13]

isnt there a trend about when rod actually goes the the Suns games? anyone have the win/loss fade stats on that?!?!

gl bro

 

[Satyr]

Love the writeup Rod. Our two teams clashing, it's always fun

Rod

A couple questions I asked myself in this game was:

• Did the Suns get enough revenge in there earlier victory?
• How does the loss of TP affect them in Phoenix?
• If this game was played in San, what would be the line?
• The Suns may not stop TD from getting 25-10, but can manu, bowen, etc...get the rest.
• Will the Suns run n gun against SA, who is currently on the 3rd game of the Rodeo trip where they apparently decided "this is when they were going to turn it up a notch"? Where they already have 2 dismall loses.

Very valid points. If I may add, I will say that the Suns will never take the Spurs lightly. EVER. So they will beat them by 30 if they can, we all know why. It's been a huge rivalry in the past few seasons, but with ZERO Suns playoffs series wins. Forget regular season, but from the top of my head, it was Phoenix who actually dominated them in the regular season. Ok not dominated, but edged out.

Whilst in the postseason it's been vice versa. Add the Horry/Amare/Boris suspension controversy. Add the fact that Arizona has been the ONLY state in the USA NOT to vote the Spurs being a dynasty. THE ONLY one.

They hate their guts. The Spurs are crippled, they're in no situation to be stepping up, and actually they had a similar situation last year. Then after the all star break, they went 23-6 and took the title.

So beware. I would not bet against the Spurs here, laying 8? No freaking way.

But I can't take them either. Not when I know how they play the Suns (and everyone else) in the regular season. Timmy will make a few "me?" faces when they call him for a foul, Bowen will bitch and moan a bit, but apart from that, no one will kill themselves if they lose by 15. Matchup wise, the Suns should clean house, especially with SA crippled now.

Phoenix will take this one VERY seriously. Forget any kind of revenge angles, these guys, starting with D'Antoni, are FED UP with the Spurs. And the Spurs are down. I can see a Phoenix 15 point win, but I can also see a 100-94 game as well. I would be very surprised if the Spurs took this one SU.

Won't be touching this one. Good luck Rod. Cheers.

 

[CHSGTMD]

Lot of good write ups here, agree more with Satyr's comments, I'm laying low, no play here. Gl to all.

Go Pistons tonight !

 

[rod_steel]

Rod

A couple questions I asked myself in this game was:

• Did the Suns get enough revenge in there earlier victory?
• How does the loss of TP affect them in Phoenix?
• If this game was played in San, what would be the line?
• The Suns may not stop TD from getting 25-10, but can manu, bowen, etc...get the rest.
• Will the Suns run n gun against SA, who is currently on the 3rd game of the Rodeo trip where they apparently decided "this is when they were going to turn it up a notch"? Where they already have 2 dismall loses.

1) Definitely not. However to exact revenge for that particular incident the Suns would have to beat the Spurs in the playoffs. 2 regular season games I don't believe and pretty sure the players know won't do that. The win in Texas earlier this season was nice, albeit TP didn't play, because the Suns record in Texas over the recent times has been horrendous.

2) Loss of TP is obviously big for the Spurs - we've seen Vaughan not up to the mark in running this Spurs offense over the past week especially. But then again I have 8 points to play with, if I had set this line in my mind with him playing I'd say it should be +/- 4 max. Parker shouldn't be the cause for a 4 point lift in the line IMO.

3) The line was what -/+2 in favour of the Spurs earlier this season without Parker? Bearing in mind the current form of both teams I'd say Spurs -1. Definitely wouldn't be home dogs which is what this current line reflects.

4) Sure - they have done it before no reason to think they won't give Duncan support tonight offensively. If ever there was an opponent the Spurs would like to play to get out of their current offensive funk it has to be against the Suns.

5) I'm sure that is what their plan will be. As always though when it comes to these two teams it's seems to be the case of whether the Spurs will allow them to execute given they will try and slow it down and trap them playing a halfcourt offense.

 

[lifesallover]

BOL Tonight Rod, bold pick, but I like it, why not turn things around tonight. Goodluck:cheers:

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

Good luck Rod.

Been awhile. Hope you cash this one.

 

[Satyr]

great call Rod. Spurs rolled.

 

[B.A.R.]

nicely done