Sharp question!

[dolfan585]

I've tailed a lot of you guys on here on plenty of plays. I read as many articles and stats as I can. Wondering how do you correctly cap a game. I know that there has to be a formula that I can use to determine what the line should be and compare it to what the line is and make my plays that way. I've been wagering for over 10 years as a hobby an expensive hobby and maybe had 1 or 2 winning seasons and that's a big Maybe.

So my question is there a method to the madness because I know nothing is guaranteed but damn if I go another 10+ years with my "hobby" and not come out plus at least 6 out of the 10. I'm not looking to get rich but definetly not trying to go broke. So if there's any advice or equations or anything you can suggest I would appreciate it. Good luck all

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Are you looking for ... the formula of victories?

 

[tru]

FOV FTW

#2 option, flipping a coin

 

[dolfan585]

I guess what I'm asking is how do you guys do it. Meaning the sharps vs the squares. Like tonight's game if you ask joe public that doesn't know much about football they would say Patriots wins this well over the 10 pt spread and covers. Now me looking at this game I can see Patriots killing the jets but with a DD dog in the NFL over the long run you'll win money. Is there a formula because with everything it should be the numbers first then the other factors come into play after that. I know you guys sit down and break the games down as far as what the spread should be. How do you come up with your spread

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I guess what I'm asking is how do you guys do it. Meaning the sharps vs the squares. Like tonight's game if you ask joe public that doesn't know much about football they would say Patriots wins this well over the 10 pt spread and covers. Now me looking at this game I can see Patriots killing the jets but with a DD dog in the NFL over the long run you'll win money. Is there a formula because with everything it should be the numbers first then the other factors come into play after that. I know you guys sit down and break the games down as far as what the spread should be. How do you come up with your spread

I look for games that are inflated/deflated based on prior week's performance. 2 examples last week were the Eagles and Patriots. Eagles line should have been 3.5 IMO, but public perception of both teams drew money on the Giants. Also, the Pats line probably was a bit overinflated due to the blowout win vs. Cinncy. However, they still blew out the Bills. You won't win every bet, but it's usually a good idea to find value by looking at the previous weeks' performances of the teams and identifying the overvalued/undervalued teams.

 

[ManchesterUk]

sharps Vs squares is bullshit,sorry to burst anyones bubble.

Squares will win about 50%,sharps will win around 50%

It means nothing,bet the winner of the game,worry about the spread later.

GL :cheers3:

 

[ManchesterUk]

but I shouldnt speak about something so holy,obviously,Im a foreigner..... :rofl:


bet winners,cash tickets

 

[dolfan585]

Thanks Gorgolon that makes sense. Manchester you're right as far as picking the winner but when the spreads high like tonight it has to be considered.

I know there isn't a perfect formula and nothing's guaranteed that's why it's called gambling. I just figured there has to be something better then following 15 different peoples picks and taking the majority. Thanks again for input

 

[TheSportsThing]

I watch certain teams year after year like my jets. I pay attention to scoreboard of all teams and realize the spreads i won or lost overall. Each week is a new team different circumstances etc. I try to take all my knowledge from what i have learned and lost on and just use it to my ability to pic the team whom covers. Stick to minimal games and play only straight up. dont go crazy with the so many option, keep it simple, its simple stupid lol j/k. Just my method and i use everything i hear from people and they know more than me as far as the injuries and specifics in how teams play each other so everything considered and whom the good cappers are on if that is my lean, bam hit it hard sometimes, otherwise if my lean is opposite the crew i play it smaller. to each his own and GL. Leggo Jets by the way.

 

[ebemiss]

sharps Vs squares is bullshit,sorry to burst anyones bubble.

Squares will win about 50%,sharps will win around 50%

It means nothing,bet the winner of the game,worry about the spread later.

GL :cheers3:

Absolute truth. It's become ridiculous. I love when people talk about the "public" side or "square" side when they have no clue where the actual money is being bet and assume they know.

My simple advice is to start small. Find a few teams or a conference that you seem to have a good feeling for and move on from there. Document your selections and grade your work. There's no chance of ever improving if you don't learn from your mistakes. My 2 cents.

 

[eggman]

Always bet your favorite teams.

Obviously joking. I don't use a formula but from what I've gathered is every "capper" values things differently. But I am also a believer of the inflated lines theory. BOL.