SF to Win the SB @7:1. Would you Hedge a $90,000 Potential Payout?

UMiamiCapper

UMiamiCapper

Pretty much a regular
For the last two days, I've been struggling with what I should do here. Earlier this year, I placed a $10,605 wager on SF to win the SuperBowl; payout of $76,305. I also have a $1,000 wager on SF to win the NFC to payout $4,200.

Thus if SF actually wins the Superbowl, I'll clear a cool $91,840.00. However the flipside of this equation is that if SEA wins on Sunday, which I think most expect them to do ... I come away with nothing. So I've had the damndest time coming to terms that even though I think the 49ers can and will win in Seattle on Sunday, I'm not sure I want to risk it.

Thus my book (BetAnySports) has allowed me to hedge against the 9ers without placing additional wagers. Simply using the value in the bets, I can hedge against SF with a bet at -400 for them to NOT win the SB. This would net the following amounts if I place a $60,000 bet against SF.

SF to lose in SEA - I end up with $15,000
SF to lose the SB - I end up with $20,200
SF to win the SB - I end up with $31,840

There are other ways to hedge as well; betting Seattle ML for instance and then betting the AFC champ money line if SF makes the SB ... but those are only a touch better or worse than this scenario. Obviously the more I hedge, the more I can guarantee but the less I can win if SF wins the SB (so for example, I could bet $68,000 on SF not to win and make sure I come out with $17,000 no matter what, but win just $23,000 if SF wins the SB).



My question here is what do you do? Do you let the SF play ride and then hedge just the SB if they win on Sunday (thus guaranteeing yourself at least $50,000), do you hedge here exactly the way I've shown above to take out a guaranteed amount of money with lower potential if SF actually wins the SB, or do you ride it out till the end, which could be Sunday, Superbowl Sunday, or when you're counting your cash?

Opinions are greatly appreciated.
 
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I would cover the $11K invested at least. You cant lose any $ at least.

But then again.....Why did you place the bet in the first place?

Me, I'd guarantee some cash. period.
 
wizardofodd said:
I would cover the $11K invested at least. You cant lose any $ at least.

But then again.....Why did you place the bet in the first place?

Me, I'd guarantee some cash. period.
Click to expand...

He placed the bet in the first place because someone didn't show up at his door with a briefcase saying "Hey, here's a free $20,000...enjoy!"
 
wizardofodd said:
I would cover the $11K invested at least. You cant lose any $ at least.

But then again.....Why did you place the bet in the first place?

Me, I'd guarantee some cash. period.
Click to expand...

Bet was placed as part of this run ... http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum...ready-Won-too-Much-BetAnySports-com-(5-Dimes)

So the money is "house money" if you look at it that way. Still, I don't want to come out of this with nothing if I can avoid it; and am curious to know if my smaller potential wins are not worth the effort, seeing as I'm five months "invested" into this team already.
 
Not even a hair on your balls if you don't double down on the Niners.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Not even a hair on your balls if you don't double down on the Niners.
Click to expand...

I had to bet SF at $500 (Max bet) a time for two months to be able to bet this much on them. So this is actually 23 separate wagers; moving the line each time (which sucked).

I've doubled down enough.
 
And on a serious note...easy hedge IMO. Not even a decision.

How you want to do it and what amount is subjective though. Depends how much ya wanna gamble.
 
If you like NE ML take Pats at +200.

Then you can hedge with Sea/Denver Superbowl matchup at + money....
 
scdoggy said:
If you like NE ML take Pats at +200.

Then you can hedge with Sea/Denver Superbowl matchup at + money....
Click to expand...

I definitely don't like NE. My hang-up here is not the AFC in any way / it's Seattle. If these games were reversed and SF was playing NE or DEN on a neutral field, and then SEA for the SB, I wouldn't touch anything right now and let the bet ride until the 49ers were in Seattle.

Thus my dilemma. I could put $57,000 on SEA -190, and then have a guaranteed $30,000 if the NFC wins the SB ... but even in that scenario, I could leave with nada. The lines show that SF is the best of the four teams in the eyes of Vegas (as all SB lines have SF as the biggest favorites), but they're big disadvantage is having to play this game in SEA.

I'm trying to talk myself into just betting SEA, and letting SF ride in the SB if they win ... but even that makes me uneasy.

(Added wagers to the OP)
 
Every Penny.

Funny because a friend and I were just looking over that thread. Had no idea it was still alive (mostly on doubt); but payouts came the day after I requested them every time.
 
This is tough for me to answer. Mostly because I don't wager $10k on a sporting event and have no idea where this sits as far as your normal betting amounts. There is a big difference between what I might be thinking as far as hedging depending whether my normal unit was $500 or whether it was $5k.

Good position to be in.

Just to throw out an option not yet discussed ( not saying it is good or bad )

You could hedge to limit exposure rather than to cover your investment. That is to say ... you could take Seattle ML but not to cover your initial investment but rather just to limit your loss to something you feel comfortable with. Again, you are betting $10k on a future so I am guessing your normal ability to handle risk is higher than mine and your normal unit is way higher than mine.

Some might say you have a large unit in more ways than one!

Best of luck in whatever you decide to do and I am now tempted to cheer for the Niners ( I want Peyton ) to win it all just to see you cash this thing.
 
This is a no brainer. Hedge the way you stated guaranteeing yourself more more per outcome. Literally a no brainer. I don't bet as much as that on plays but I would say I'm a heavy volume bettor and my advice would be don't get caught up in the nostalgia of it being the Super Bowl. If it was Titans V. Bucs on a Sunday afternoon and you had a chance to lock in 10,000 fucking dollars no matter what, what would you do?
 
eggman said:
This is a no brainer. Hedge the way you stated guaranteeing yourself more more per outcome. Literally a no brainer. I don't bet as much as that on plays but I would say I'm a heavy volume bettor and my advice would be don't get caught up in the nostalgia of it being the Super Bowl. If it was Titans V. Bucs on a Sunday afternoon and you had a chance to lock in 10,000 fucking dollars no matter what, what would you do?
Click to expand...

I'm the kind of gambler who fears winning small bets just as much as losing big ones. If SF should win this game, I have the opportunity to hedge the Superbowl and guarantee myself 50K either way ... so essentially I'm pulling out $15K today, not allowing myself the chance to win an additional 30K if SF should lose the SB and 20K should they win. The -190 Seattle line kind of makes that dead on.

So for me, if SF wins tomorrow and I hedge, I'll have regrets. Never have I had this large a payout on one wager, but I have been in situations where a 6 and 8 team five figure parlay were closing, and I didn't hedge (and I won them both).

All that being said, I just placed the wager above. My current balance is negative $60,000! No looking back.
 
I think that means you hedged. So congrats. Nothing better than knowing you'll be putting AT least one stack of high society in in your mattress.

Congrats.

For the record, if it was much smaller amounts of cash I would tell you to let it roll. Too much money at stake here. No matter what your bankroll is.
 
I had a similar yet easier decision with the Patriots Giants SB. Pats were netting me 50k against a 3k loss on a Giants win. Procrastinated for a while before hedging. Was made a fair bit easier with pats being short favs. It did teach me to have a 'hedging plan' for every bet I placed in the future. Congrats & I hope u r happy with your decision.
 
additionally, i just read the thread you posted the link to and you are now my new personal hero, that is awesome. I would definitely close down that site and just withdraw for the next 6 months, and move some money into a different account over there, just for the sake that the money looks much better spread over a bed with a dime laying naked on top of it than it does on a screen shot.
 
I you dont know this answer then why would you make a future wager?
The whole point is to make money and reverse the risk to the book anytime the chance guarantees you any profit - isnt it?
 
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