Serena and the over. My biggest stake so far in the tournament

[Satyr]

I made roughly 20 units on AO so far (ugly loss this morning with Haas and the over), and I won't be betting on men's finals, so I'll risk it all here, since I think this is an incredible value. Sharapova has played probably the best tennis so far on the tournament, but she has also shown a lot of vulnerable sides, which I think an experienced player like Serena will take advantage of. Serena has a huge serve and an even bigger heart (and something even bigger but we won't be rude now, this is called LADIES finals after all Wink ), her movement is (surprisingly) good, and I don't think this will be an easy match, Serena has all the experience in the world for such a match, she's back after a woeful period, and I think she can beat the Russian. The value is just IMMENSE.
Also, the total margin is set relatively low, so I'll bet that one as well. I rarely play max stakes anywhere but since it's either gonna be a +50 unit effort for the two week tournament, or breaking even, I'm willing to risk it.


My bets:

Serena (3.21 @Pinny) 10/10
over 22.5 (1.87 @ Pinny) 10/10

:cheers:

 

[Toronto_Mike]

how in gods name did you get 3.21???

 

[Satyr]

wait Matt told me odds were 3.21 at Pinny, I was too lazy to log in and check , since I was betting with offline money tonight anyways. Personally I took 2.80 at my local book.

 

[Satyr]

Matt was right man. Pinny offers 3.20 on Serena.

 

[Joe Public]

If you like the over 22.5 in games you've got to be looking at a three set match. In which case, there might be some value in taking Serena at 2-1.

That's at +460 at Pinny. Hell, could take Sharpova for the same score at +273. Just a thought.

But I agree, there's a ton of value on Serena here. Thanks for pointing it out, Satyr.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

yeah its 2.80 on Gamebookers. They won't allow any bets until live. Funny

 

[Joe Public]

Holy f**k, she absolutely kicked the s**t out of her.

Thanks for calling my attention to this value, Satyr. And thank you, Gambling Gods.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

nice one mate.

 

[Satyr]

If you like the over 22.5 in games you've got to be looking at a three set match. In which case, there might be some value in taking Serena at 2-1.

That's at +460 at Pinny. Hell, could take Sharpova for the same score at +273. Just a thought.

But I agree, there's a ton of value on Serena here. Thanks for pointing it out, Satyr.

Thanks man, I'm glad we cashed in. About the over: I wasn't necessarily looking for a 3 set match here.

22.5 is the margin: look at this: 7:6, 6:4 > equals 23. Enough for me. Same is with men, in cases when you think (and there are indicators for this, I ended up 9-4 in picking overs on this tournament) the two players will both have their chances in a match (as I thought with Davy-Berdych, Haas-Davy, Nadal-Murray, Hingis-Na Li, etc, (I was also wrong a couple of times)) you can take the over, as I think the books are setting the line a bit too low for a GS 1/8 finals or 1/4 finals.

39-42 was the margin.

All you need is a 4 set match with a TB. I.e. 7:6, 6:4, 4:6, 6:4. Nothing else! for over 39 you just need 4 x 6:4.

Oh well, Serena made us money, nevermind the over now. I end up with +30 units on the tournament, not a bad number. Could've been better, but heck, I'm ok with it. :cheers:

 

[Joe Public]

Yeah, congrats on a great tourney.

I do agree that you don't 'need' a three set match, but it does basically guarantee it. That's actually the only reason I didn't play that over because I could have seen either of them losing in straight sets. I didn't think it would be as one-sided as it was. I thought, maybe someone wins 6-3, 6-4, something like that.

But Serena was flat out dominant. I wish I'd have hit it harder, but you can't complain about money won.

Congrats again.

 

[Satyr]

thanks man, you too. :cheers:

 

[Retburj13]

nice hit bro...didnt hit as much as you but laid 500 on the BOOTY as well