September...limited stretch run

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
FRIDAY 6-4
WEEK +2.03u
AASB +14.13u


Even with 0-7 Thursday I still turned small profit last week and ended up 14 units since AllStar break. Still down 11 on the year after disastrous 1st half. I have continued playing very sparingly the last 3 days and managed 5-3 +1.6u. I love baseball so I am gonna try playing Sept on a very limited level. Probably a play or 2 daily. I'm evaluating some Sept queries and they look good. This is my first year really using sdql to the extent I have. I think my downfall was a: Too many plays b: Reading too much into small sample sized queries c: Situation level prioritization.

Hopefully I have learned something and will be all the better for next year, but I will try to dribble out a few selections down the stretch.

SEP 4

No plays yet although I'm leaning Mets based on a couple queries 1, 2...just hard to bet them. nym is 16-12 on road since jul 1 but only 11-19 vs lefties since may 1 while lad 26-17 vs lefties over same time

this one give AZ RL https://goo.gl/VD6yiy

Have a nice under query I hit twice yesterday but not active today yet as 3 games still unlined

randoms...

tuesday records
nyy 16-4, az 16-5, mil 14-7, hou 13-8, bos 13-8, was 13-8
bal 5-14, det 6-14, pit 6-13, chw 7-15, nym 7-13, mia 8-13, tex 8-13, lad 9-13

record since jul 1
home: oak 20-8, col 20-8, mil 17-9, lad 16-12 ... tex 12-17
road: bos 19-10, sl 20-13, nym 16-12 ...bal 4-24, det 8-22, kc 7-18, min 9-21, cin 10-19, laa 10-17, sd 10-16, phi 12-18, sf 11-15

record vs lefty since may 1
lad 26-17, cubs 14-7, bos 16-11, tb 17-12, oak 22-17
sd 8-25, nym 11-19, pit 13-21, laa 14-22, bal 14-21, tex 15-23, chw 11-16, az 15-22

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- giolito 10-6 +8u, leblac 10-6 +5.5u, heaney 10-6 +5.3u, d,rod 9-5 +3.5u, minor 7-6 +3.3u
worse- verlander 8-9 -13.6u, ray 4-8 -7.4u, clevinger 7-9 -7.2u, musgrove 4-10 -6.2u

L365

leblanc 15-7 +9.5u ...#10 money starter
happ 21-10 +8.3u ...#14
mikolas 19-8 +8.3u ...#15
giolito 16-15 +6.8u ... #18

cobb 9-20 -8.4u ...#17 best fade
verlander 25-14 -7u ...#21

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10
miley, d.rod, stanek(not really a starter since he hasn't went over 2 inn this year)

NL home favs within division have been killing it...23-9 last 2 weeks 20% ROI and 76-38 since July 1 10% ROI

47d6c5dc-420e-4a28-b391-671bdfe521c7.png


44a985a2-7e90-43a4-abdb-721021c25579.png
 
SEPT 4: 1-0
Lots of games I like, but I plan to try and be very selective :pointandlaugh:

SEPT 5:
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +100 12-8 WED while Mia 5-17 away L60 + https://goo.gl/VD6yiy
  • 957 New York Mets/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7 +100 strong under trend for SEPT..5-0 so far this year https://goo.gl/N6g3Va
also these look good and I may still get some:
sl ...mikolas > roarke https://goo.gl/wWmWSW
mil ...chacin been so good but can mil sweep cubs...sure chi will be up for this one
nyy ..hard to fade fiers https://goo.gl/9TxQGb
chw ...these meaningless games best left alone https://goo.gl/M77t8P
nym ...hate playing ny but wheeler dealin https://goo.gl/tTcvRs
mil, pit, col ...home div favs killing it and went 4-0 again yesterday both ML and RL...20% ROI on RL last 6 weeks
View attachment 34422

randoms...

wednesday records
bos 14-4, cle 16-5, hou 15-5, atl 12-7, mil 12-8, phi 12-8
tor 6-15, kc 6-14, sd 6-13, az 6-12, bal 7-13, sea 8-13, det 8-13, cin 8-12


record since jul 1
home: col 21-8, oak 20-9, mil 18-9, lad 17-12 ... chw 12-16, tex 13-17
road: bos 20-10, sl 21-13 ...bal 5-24, mia 5-17, kc 7-19, min 9-22, det 9-22, cin 10-20, laa 10-18, sf 11-16, phi 13-18


record vs lefty since may 1

nym 11-20, min 15-20

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- fiers 12-4 +11u, tallion 11-5 +5.8u, chacin 11-6 +4.6u, sanchez 5-1 +4.4u
worse- bailey 0-7 -7u, pivetta 6-10 -5.6u, colon 5-9 -3.5u


L365

chacin 24-9 +16.9u ...#1 money starter
fiers 18-9 +14.7u ...#2
severino 28-8 +12.7u ...#5
leake 19-12 +11.5u ...#9
mikolas 19-8 +8.3u ...#13


bailey 3-20 -16.1u ...#1 best fade
roarke 13-18 -9.3 ...#12


Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

fiers, ryu, wheeler, tallion

will hate to see the summer end...
GFQlZQd.jpg
 
Last edited:
SEPT 5: 2-2

Made a small profit, but could have been better if doyer defense would have resembled mlb quality.

SEPT 6:
Short board today and I still have a few leans. Will decide later
AZ -1' https://goo.gl/VD6yiy
AZ under https://goo.gl/N6g3Va
WAS probably my favorite lean so far https://goo.gl/W6kcmN
SD unlikely I hit this one but if popped up https://goo.gl/1eWkqT

randoms...

thursday records
cubs 12-3, atl 9-5, was 9-5
tor 4-10, sd 5-10, cin 4-8

record since jul 1
home: none pertinent
road: cle 18-8 ...sd 10-17

record vs lefty since may 1

none pertinent

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- bieber 9-5 +2.2u, greinke 11-6 +1.7u, castillo 8-7 +1.7u
worse- gaviglio 6-10 -4u

L365

none

hendricks 18-17 -8u ...#17 best fade

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

greinke
 
my only 2...war stinky greinke
  • 906 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +130
  • 905 Atlanta Braves/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8 -115
 
THURSDAY 0-2 :thumbsdown9:

FRIDAY:
  • 957 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110
  • 963 Atlanta Braves/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 7½ -105
There's a couple more I'm considering...tb, pit, bos, min

randoms...

friday records
tor 15-8, mil 15-8, col 14-9, laa 14-9, pit 14-9, cubs 14-9
az 13-9
det 6-16, atl 7-16, sd 8-15, tb 8-14, bal 8-14, kc 8-14, mia 9-13

record since jul 1
home: bos 20-6, col 22-8, tb 19-7, oak 21-9, min 19-9, mil 18-10 ... chw 12-17
road: cle 19-8, hou 17-8, sl 22-13, atl 16-12, cubs 16-12, lad 16-12 ...bal 5-25, mia 5-17, kc 7-20, laa 11-18, sd 11-17, sf 11-17, tex 10-15

record vs lefty since may 1

col 26-13, nyy 20-10, hou 25-17, sl 19-12
kc 10-21, laa 14-23, bal 15-21, atl 16-21, was 11-15, phi 11-15

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- price 13-2 +11.3u, gallardo 10-3 +9.4u, lester 13-4 +8.3u, gomber 7-0 +8u, gray 11-3 +7.6u, snell 10-4 7.5u, holland 10-5 +6.9u, nola 11-5 +5.5u, desclafani 10-6 +5.2u
worse- bundy 4-10 -15.9u, tanaka 6-6 -4.4u

L365

price 20-6 +13u ...#3 money starter
lester 24-10 +12.6u ...#4
snell 20-10 +12.1u ...#7
nola 21-10 +10.4u ... #10
gallardo 10-3 +9.4 ...#11

bundy 8-20 -13.2u ...#3 best fade
gausman 12-19 -7.9u ...#15

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

holland, nola, snell, kershaw
 
FRIDAY 0-2 :thumbsdown9:

SATURDAY:

  • 907 San Francisco Giants +170
  • 914 Colorado Rockies +125
  • 927 New York Yankees -118
randoms...

saturday records
tor 16-8, mil 16-8, laa 15-9, pit 15-9, az 14-9, cubs 14-9
atl 7-17, det 7-16, sd 8-16, bal 8-15, kc 8-15, tb 9-14, mia 9-14

record since jul 1
home: tb 20-7, bos 20-7, oak 22-9, col 22-9, min 20-9, mil 19-10 ... chw 12-18
road: hou 18-8, cle 19-9, sl 22-14, lad 17-12, cubs 16-12 ...bal 5-26, mia 5-18, kc 7-21, sd 11-18, sf 11-18, tex 10-16, laa 12-18, phi 14-19

record vs lefty since may 1

lad 27-17, hou 26-17, sl 19-13, oak 22-18
sf 16-22, was 11-15

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- freeland 13-4 +10u, e.jack 10-3 +8.7u, chen 9-6 +6.6u, castillo 4-0 +6.3u, e.rod 7-7 +4.3u
worse- gio 4-12 -12.9u, hess 1-10 -8.8u, plutko 1-6 -8.2u, felix 4-10 -7.3u

L365

freeland 20-10 +12.6u ...#5 money starter
e.rod 19-5 +12.5u ...#11
stratton 15-11 +7.4u ... #16

gio 12-20 -17.1u ...#2 best fade
hess 3-12 -8.3u ...#14

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

buckholtz, e.rod, freeland, buehler, flaherty
 
SEPT 4: 1-0
Lots of games I like, but I plan to try and be very selective :pointandlaugh:

SEPT 5:
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +100 12-8 WED while Mia 5-17 away L60 + https://goo.gl/VD6yiy
  • 957 New York Mets/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7 +100 strong under trend for SEPT..5-0 so far this year https://goo.gl/N6g3Va
also these look good and I may still get some:
sl ...mikolas > roarke https://goo.gl/wWmWSW
mil ...chacin been so good but can mil sweep cubs...sure chi will be up for this one
nyy ..hard to fade fiers https://goo.gl/9TxQGb
chw ...these meaningless games best left alone https://goo.gl/M77t8P
nym ...hate playing ny but wheeler dealin https://goo.gl/tTcvRs
mil, pit, col ...home div favs killing it and went 4-0 again yesterday both ML and RL...20% ROI on RL last 6 weeks
View attachment 34422

randoms...

wednesday records
bos 14-4, cle 16-5, hou 15-5, atl 12-7, mil 12-8, phi 12-8
tor 6-15, kc 6-14, sd 6-13, az 6-12, bal 7-13, sea 8-13, det 8-13, cin 8-12


record since jul 1
home: col 21-8, oak 20-9, mil 18-9, lad 17-12 ... chw 12-16, tex 13-17
road: bos 20-10, sl 21-13 ...bal 5-24, mia 5-17, kc 7-19, min 9-22, det 9-22, cin 10-20, laa 10-18, sf 11-16, phi 13-18


record vs lefty since may 1

nym 11-20, min 15-20

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- fiers 12-4 +11u, tallion 11-5 +5.8u, chacin 11-6 +4.6u, sanchez 5-1 +4.4u
worse- bailey 0-7 -7u, pivetta 6-10 -5.6u, colon 5-9 -3.5u


L365

chacin 24-9 +16.9u ...#1 money starter
fiers 18-9 +14.7u ...#2
severino 28-8 +12.7u ...#5
leake 19-12 +11.5u ...#9
mikolas 19-8 +8.3u ...#13


bailey 3-20 -16.1u ...#1 best fade
roarke 13-18 -9.3 ...#12


Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

fiers, ryu, wheeler, tallion

will hate to see the summer end...
GFQlZQd.jpg


Who's that?
 
Wow. They simply don’t get the national coverage that they sometimes deserve. Freeland is a prime example.
 
SAT - 2-1

SEPT9:
  • 962 Colorado Rockies +115
  • 963 Atlanta Braves +135
  • 975 New York Yankees -130
  • 971 Los Angeles Angels/Chicago White Sox Over 8½ -115
Also considering philly under and rays

randoms...

sunday records
atl 15-5, lad 16-7, bos 16-7, oak 15-8, sf 15-8, cle 14-8, cubs 14-8
kc 6-15, mil 7-15, det 8-15, tex 8-15, bal 8-14, laa 8-14

record since jul 1
home: tb 21-7, oak 23-9, col 23-9, bos 20-8, mil 20-10, min 20-10 ... chw 12-19
road: hou 19-8, cle 20-9, sl 22-15 ...bal 5-27, kc 8-21, sf 11-19, sd 11-19, tex 10-17, phi 14-20, laa 13-18

record vs lefty since may 1

col 26-14, lad 27-18, bos 17-11, tb 18-12, oak 23-18
atl 16-22, chw 11-17

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- cahill 8-3 +4.8u, ramirez 4-1 +4.5u, heaney 10-7 +4.3u
worse- fulmer 1-10 -9.7u, ray 5-8 -6.4u, clevinger 8-9 -6.2u

L365

porcello 22-12 +6.8u ...#18 money starter

fulmer 5-17 -12.2u ...#4 best fade
degrom 13-17 -7.3u ...#16

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

gant, degrom, stanek, velasquez
 
Coming off a very good day but very tired. Think I just watch today and get some rest. BOL
 
SUNDAY 1-3

SEPT10:
  • 904 Philadelphia Phillies -140
  • 908 Chicago Cubs -135
  • 909 Pittsburgh Pirates +120
  • 909 Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 -110
  • 912 Colorado Rockies -139
  • 924 Los Angeles Angels -121
Gonna be looking for rays action too...when lined

Side note..I went 9-0-1 on NFL yesterday for menial 40 a pop lol...also had bosox and ray which I dint post
View attachment 34488

randoms...

monday records 2018
tb 11-2, cle 11-6
kc 4-12, tex 5-12, phi 5-10, chw 5-10


record since jul 1
home: tb 22-7, col 23-10, min 21-10, cubs 20-10, phi 16-10 ...
road: hou 19-9, cle 20-10, atl 18-13, lad 18-13 ...kc 8-22, tex 10-18, was 11-17, mil 14-21


record vs lefty 2018

hou 33-21, lad 33-23, cubs 19-11
min 17-24, laa 19-26


today's starters since jun 1
top$$- lester 13-4 +8.3u, castillo 5-0 +7.3u, giolito 10-7 +6.5u, minor 8-6 +4.3u
worse- verlander 9-9 -12.6u, junis 4-11 -5.9u


L365

lester 19-9 +16.1u ...#5 money starter
castillo 5-0 +7.3u ...#17
happ 20-10 +6.8u ...#18
giolito 16-15 +6.5 ...#20


urena 9-22 -10.6u ...#8 best fade
verlander 25-14 -6.9u ...#18
wood 16-15 -6.6u ...#20


Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

barria, t.williams, miley, d.rod, degrom, wood
 
Lot of clear directions. Tampa may or may not win but is very obvious. 11-2 plays 11-6 in a night game. Kluber is a average plus night pitcher
A little nervous about WS but Giolito is playing on 5 his best and Junis stinks vs WS. That one I probably play but will wait on ump
 
Last edited:
MONDAY 3-4

Got to learn to leave the meaningless games alone...should have never played angels. Still only down .5u unit on night

SEPT 11:
  • 960 St. Louis Cardinals -146 https://goo.gl/2GbyDH
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays +100 best home team on a roll
  • 972 Boston Red Sox -1½ -150 sale and jays trouble with lefties
Also like cubs and mets but not going vs chacin and ny/mia meaningless, also liking oak but chalky on road

randoms...

monday records 2018
nyy 17-4, az 17-5, mil 15-7, hou 14-8, bos 14-8
bal 6-14, chw 7-16, nym 7-14, det 7-14, mia 8-14, kc 9-14

record since jul 1
home: tb 23-7, bos 21-8, col 24-10, min 21-11, cubs 20-11 ...sf 13-17
road: hou 20-9, cle 20-11, oak 17-10, atl 19-13 ...mia 5-19, tor 11-18, tex 11-18, sd 12-19

record vs lefty 2018

sd 13-32, tor 14-31

today's starters since jun 1
top$$- fiers 13-4 +12.4u, mikolas 12-6 +4u, urena 8-7 +3.9u
worse- pivetta 6-11 -7.2u, musgrove 5-10 -5.2u, roarke 7-10 -4.5u, vargas 3-8 -3.7u

L365

fiers 19-9 +17.9u ...#1 money starter
chacin 23-10 +15.4u ...#2
mikolas 20-8 +9.3u ...#12
giolito 16-15 +6.5 ...#20

roarke 12-19 -11.3u ...#5 best fade
urena 9-22 -10.6u ...#6
cobb 8-20 -8.9u ...#13

Todays hot starters; avg < 2 runs per start L10

fiers, sale, ryu


BOSOX 40% ROI on RL this year at home in division...also 24-6 80% ML for 26% ROI
81db3404-fe51-4898-b75d-82290e8a60d3.png
 
Nothing cryptic but Musgrove might easily win first 5 very good on 6+
Houston would be locklike except for a homer ump.
Philadelphia first game really looks Locklike
Would at least be interested in Reds not understanding that number
I think I will see Yanks as a lock again
Sale on 6 has a Microscopic ERA and Boston certainly wants to kill someone
Over in Tampa looks like the best play in that game. Tampa pitcher has been a disaster at night Cleveland pen has been eaten up and they are sitting there knowing as the Best Wednesday team in baseball they have to find a way to beat Snell tomorrow
 
To start with the National pitcher stinks on 6+ and the Phillies are a strong home team
 
Beaker thinks a major under ump was shifted and is now in the second game. I would wait till he comfirms it
 
Gonzalez just off dl with neck back deal. Mitchell is in good spot for him. Mariners are toast this line is joke. Padres .5 ML & .5 r rl
 
Back
Top