SEC Week 9 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 9 games:

Ole Miss +4.5 @ OU
AU -1.5 @ Arkansas
Mizzou +3 @ Vandy
Alabama -13.5 @ South Carolina
Texas -7 @ Miss St
aTm -2.5 @ LSU
Tennessee -9.5 @ Kentucky
 
My first impression is to take all of the home teams except Kentucky, but we'll see how the week shakes out

AU just announced their starting C is out for the season. I don't like their chances to keep up with a team to score anyway, but this makes it even less likely

Alabama got through the gauntlet, but this is the game I've been worried about all season. Now that we're DD faves, I'm even more nervous. I'm not trying to move teh goalposts on judging DeBoer, but this is the situation that we have failed so spectacularly in last year and in Tallahassee. I think this team will be ready, but still makes me nervous, especially after 4 straight tough games

Not sure what to make of Texas, but I can't see any situation where I'd bet on them to cover over a TD on the road

Vandy/Mizzou are close to mirror images of each other with Mizzou holding the talent edge, but Vandy has that dog in them. I'll likely be on the 'Dores

I want to take Ole Miss here, but I'll have to think it over and would love the input from our Ole Miss and OU guys here

Big test for the Ags to see if they are truly contenders. They've had a relatively gentle start to the conference slate, now it gets pretty tough. Win this one, and I think they are in great position for a spot in Atlanta and the CFP. 2nd of 3 straight road games, though they are off next week
 
I'm leaning Ole Miss ML, but I need to see how the week progresses. I don't think this Ole Miss defense is good, but I also don't think that they're as bad as they looked against UGA. UGA deserved to win but there were some pretty fluky jump balls that went their way when they were behind the chains and a great individual effort from a UGA RB on 4th down probably won the game for them. I expect the defense to play with a little pride on Saturday against an OU offense that seems pretty reliant on Mateer making plays to move the ball. OU's defense is better than UGA's but I don't think they can keep Ole Miss out of the high 20s/low 30s. Let's see how intense the Florida noise gets, and I would like to see an injury report.
 
twinkie13 said:
Play ON LSU this week
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Why LSU? I think they get blasted. BK has lost the locker room from what I’m hearing. LT Adam’s is out and they are putting Chester in that spot. Chester is absolute garbage IMO. That Aggie defense will be all over Nuss. Aggies defense only gives up 15 yds per game more than LSU. LSU defense appears much better but they have played some terrible offensive teams except for Ole Miss and Vandy. Other than the home crowd, I can’t see LSU winning this game.
 
blowoutgm said:
Why LSU? I think they get blasted. BK has lost the locker room from what I’m hearing. LT Adam’s is out and they are putting Chester in that spot. Chester is absolute garbage IMO. That Aggie defense will be all over Nuss. Aggies defense only gives up 15 yds per game more than LSU. LSU defense appears much better but they have played some terrible offensive teams except for Ole Miss and Vandy. Other than the home crowd, I can’t see LSU winning this game.
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If Weeks is back I think it makes a huge difference. Gid too.
Maybe under is the play but LSU dogged at home is t the Vandy line last week.
 
With regard to Ole Miss/OU, I agree with what Grovehard said above. If you look at the OU schedule, they have not played a team with a good offense yet. Michigan, Texas, South Carolina are not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. I realize they are probably a top 10 defense with lots of sacks and tons of TFLs, but at least some of it has to do with competition. Mateer doesn’t seem right even if he is fully healthy. The OU offensive line is not nearly as good as Georgia’s. I tend to think that if Ole Miss can get to 24-27 points that it will be enough and if I can get +180 or so, I will be on Ole Miss ML. I just hope that Kiffin will be able to win a tough game on road. Side note - I will be in Norman for game. My buddy’s son is a freshman there and he got tickets for a large group . Not sure if we have anyone who’s been to games or is familiar with Norman and parking situation, etc. Also want to find a place for dinner and maybe to have a few drinks and watch some of the later games.
 
Charles0619 said:
With regard to Ole Miss/OU, I agree with what Grovehard said above. If you look at the OU schedule, they have not played a team with a good offense yet. Michigan, Texas, South Carolina are not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. I realize they are probably a top 10 defense with lots of sacks and tons of TFLs, but at least some of it has to do with competition. Mateer doesn’t seem right even if he is fully healthy. The OU offensive line is not nearly as good as Georgia’s. I tend to think that if Ole Miss can get to 24-27 points that it will be enough and if I can get +180 or so, I will be on Ole Miss ML. I just hope that Kiffin will be able to win a tough game on road. Side note - I will be in Norman for game. My buddy’s son is a freshman there and he got tickets for a large group . Not sure if we have anyone who’s been to games or is familiar with Norman and parking situation, etc. Also want to find a place for dinner and maybe to have a few drinks and watch some of the later games.
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What a treat that will be!

Enjoy that game and what a memory you'll have.

After the Michigan visit, everyone I know that made the trip was very happy with their experience+ the opposing fans.
 
I thought it was pretty well established that Venables is one of the best sign stealers in CFB. I'm not alleging anything illegal, but after playing against him while he was at Clemson and then certainly last year, there were times where his defense appeared to know exactly what we were going to do. Great coaching and planning. It's on the offense to make it harder on him, not the other way around
 
Yeah, I've never understood the outrage about one team knowing the signs or clues about what another team is doing. Change your signs and don't be predictable.
 
It could also just be great scouting and knowledge of the other team's offense. There was chatter after the championship game in Santa Clara that Venables/Clemson knew the checks that Tua/Locksley would make so they could effectively bait him into making throws based on showing one thing but doing another. Wommack does that for us now. Tennessee a few years ago knew how to use formation and motion to continually get Will Anderson or Dallas Turner into coverage instead of rushing the passer

That being said, I'm pretty sure every DC in the conference knows what AU is going to do because Freeze has a very small playbook and an offensive system/philosophy that had it's best years a decade ago
 
gps_3 said:
It could also just be great scouting and knowledge of the other team's offense. There was chatter after the championship game in Santa Clara that Venables/Clemson knew the checks that Tua/Locksley would make so they could effectively bait him into making throws based on showing one thing but doing another. Wommack does that for us now. Tennessee a few years ago knew how to use formation and motion to continually get Will Anderson or Dallas Turner into coverage instead of rushing the passer

That being said, I'm pretty sure every DC in the conference knows what AU is going to do because Freeze has a very small playbook and an offensive system/philosophy that had it's best years a decade ago
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Spot on about Freeze. His seat is on fire at Auburn 🔥
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m also not sold on the QB for TAMU
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As much as anything people have been exposed to battered Aggie syndrome over the years where the bubble bursts at some point, often more than once in a year (paging Press). Combine that with what has to be a desperate Kelley, at home, at night. But does that team even want to play for him, that much? Just seems like an insufferable and unlikable ass that would be hard to gravitate toward and lay it all out on the line for when needed most.
 
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What happened in 2019 w/Venables?
LSU could’ve given him the playbook and still would’ve thrashed Clemson 🤣
 
Frank Costanza said:
As much as anything people have been exposed to battered Aggie syndrome over the years where the bubble bursts at some point, often more than once in a year (paging Press). Combine that with what has to be a desperate Kelley, at home, at night. But does that team even want to play for him, that much? Just seems like an insufferable and unlikable ass that would be hard to gravitate toward and lay it all out on the line for when needed most.
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No one expects LSU to finish unscathed but, you described it up top. LSU does horrible with running QBs but this ain’t Pavia.
Few guys on that team from last year…
 
Is Vandy a sleeping giant? The alumni has to be very well off I would think. Now it’s about the money now more than ever…people like Nashville.
I don’t know man..
 
twinkie13 said:
Is Vandy a sleeping giant? The alumni has to be very well off I would think. Now it’s about the money now more than ever…people like Nashville.
I don’t know man..
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I don't know about giant, but I think they are primed to be a competitive SEC team year over year instead of a doormat. Reports are out this week that Jared Curtis (#1 QB recruit, committed to UGA, from TN) is taking a long look at Vandy.
 
Weather issues in Norman and Fayetteville. Feel like it benefits the home team in both
 
gps_3 said:
He ran into an equally adept tactician on the other sideline in Ed O
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That the funniest shit I’ve read in a min. Nice !!

In all seriousness he ran into a nfl offense with #1 qb throwing to 1st round weapons, and a nfl level offensive cord, hardly think it was a Venables problem, that lsu squad was lighting everyone up.
 
2daBank said:
That the funniest shit I’ve read in a min. Nice !!

In all seriousness he ran into a nfl offense with #1 qb throwing to 1st round weapons, and a nfl level offensive cord, hardly think it was a Venables problem, that lsu squad was lighting everyone up.
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That LSU offense was a unit for sure
 
It will be a miracle if Kiffin can overcome some adversity on the road. Crowd noise at Norman was nonexistent until late in 3rd quarter. Now it’s a mad house.
 
Charles0619 said:
It will be a miracle if Kiffin can overcome some adversity on the road. Crowd noise at Norman was nonexistent until late in 3rd quarter. Now it’s a mad house.
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If Ole Miss loses it will be squarely on him and he needs to wear it. He was more interested in being seen as an offensive genius than winning.
 
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