gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Saturday, October 28, 2023
SEC Week 9 Discussion
- Thread starter gps_3
- Start date
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I always have been and will continue to be a big Saban fan.
This was awesome. Helped that I was on Bama.
This was awesome. Helped that I was on Bama.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Kinda wonder if that's part of shutting it down after this season. He's become a lot more enjoyable to listen to this year.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'd be shocked if he shut it down after this year. I actually think this season has energized him. He has mentioned numerous times how much fun this team is to coach. As for his kinder, gentler nature, I think it was Covid that did it. You saw it a little after the tornados in Tuscaloosa back in 2011, but he reverted back to his psycho self pretty soon after. But I think the nature of the pandemic, the response, and maybe a little glimpse at his own mortality when he had to miss a game or two when he had it, may have been what gave him this new perspective. He's about to turn 72 (I think) on Halloween, and I think he has 3-5 years left in him. I think he wants at least one more title, and while it's not over this season yet, next year's team should be one of his better ones.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Hope so, he's good for the game. Just his mannerisms and doing the Aflac commercials with Deion make me think he's not the 24/7 coach he used to be. I also think Ferentz might retire from Iowa, doubt he wants to fire his son which will be a requirement after this season. Some of these lifers have had it made...Nick somehow getting to test the water in the NFL and still being relevant is quite the feat. I really think you guys would benefit from a transition now as opposed to 5 years from now.
I’m 100% with ya FC! Even both my fantasy teams are “Roll god damn tide”! I hope they win out.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It's going to be rough no matter when he does it, so maybe getting it over with would be better. It's going to take a special coach to take over after and be successful once Saban leaves. Our fanbase and admin/boosters were not very helpful in the post-Bryant era. Can't imagine the fans or boosters have learned their lesson. Hopefully the school and AD have
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
As I posted in the other discussion thread, Vandy at anything over 21 is a play. I know that Kiffin has shown a tendency to play for the cover, but this spot is terrible. He badly wanted the Auburn win, and he hates Jimbo and A&M, who is on deck. Ole Miss covered by accident last year, but the year before they completely slept walked against Vandy in a similar spot. Assuming Vandy hasn't quit I think they can put 17-21 on the board. I don't see Kiffin being motivated to get in to the 40's.
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I know there's been some talk about CFP participation in the other league threads, so I thought we could discuss here as well. For the first time in the playoff era, I don't think it's a given that the SEC gets a team in, unless UGA is sitting at 13-0 after the SECCG, which is admittedly a distinct possibility.
The next 4 weeks will really interesting. UGA has 3 losable games in the next 4, maybe all 4 if you include Florida. It will be a tough run no doubt. As weak as their schedule has been, I don't know that there are many teams in the country that could win all 4 of the games UGA has left, right in a row. The list is very short. And as of today, I would predict they lose at least one of them, most likely the road trip to Knoxville.
The West I guess only has 2 CFP contenders at this point, though if there is chaos nationally, LSU could sneak back in the picture. They are at least capable of playing spoiler not just for the West, but the SEC as a whole. A 3 way tie in the SEC West is at least a possibility. And I believe any of Alabama, LSU or Ole Miss are capable of beating UGA in a one game season, especially if Bowers remains out. Unlike 2021, I do not think UGA can survive a loss in Atlanta and still get in the CFP, outside of a lot of help nationally.
So I think the scenarios that guarantee an SEC in the CFP are:
Undefeated, SEC Champ UGA (obvious)
One loss, SEC Champ UGA, Alabama, or Ole Miss
I honestly think there are more plausible scenarios that leave the SEC out of the CFP than definitely in, depending on how likely you think UGA wins all of their remaining games plus the SECCG
Of course, there are a lot of land mines left for the CFP contenders across the country, so I think this will be a pretty dynamic last 5 weeks. Should be pretty exciting
The next 4 weeks will really interesting. UGA has 3 losable games in the next 4, maybe all 4 if you include Florida. It will be a tough run no doubt. As weak as their schedule has been, I don't know that there are many teams in the country that could win all 4 of the games UGA has left, right in a row. The list is very short. And as of today, I would predict they lose at least one of them, most likely the road trip to Knoxville.
The West I guess only has 2 CFP contenders at this point, though if there is chaos nationally, LSU could sneak back in the picture. They are at least capable of playing spoiler not just for the West, but the SEC as a whole. A 3 way tie in the SEC West is at least a possibility. And I believe any of Alabama, LSU or Ole Miss are capable of beating UGA in a one game season, especially if Bowers remains out. Unlike 2021, I do not think UGA can survive a loss in Atlanta and still get in the CFP, outside of a lot of help nationally.
So I think the scenarios that guarantee an SEC in the CFP are:
Undefeated, SEC Champ UGA (obvious)
One loss, SEC Champ UGA, Alabama, or Ole Miss
I honestly think there are more plausible scenarios that leave the SEC out of the CFP than definitely in, depending on how likely you think UGA wins all of their remaining games plus the SECCG
Of course, there are a lot of land mines left for the CFP contenders across the country, so I think this will be a pretty dynamic last 5 weeks. Should be pretty exciting
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
I'm certainly not predicting that Ole Miss goes 11-1, but what happens if they do but don't win the West? Can you leave a team out of the playoff whose only loss is a non-blowout at Bama?
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Any other year, I think they have a great chance at getting in, like Ohio St last year. It just seems like it's going to get awfully crowded this season, and right or wrong, the national perception of the SEC is diminished due to that lack of success in the non-conference early in the season. Hopefully this is the last season where it's better to go undefeated against a weak slate than taking chances on playing a quality opponent
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Perfect.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Heritage is floating Missouri +15.5 108 out there for week 10. Any thoughts? I would lean Mizzou as I was thinking anything above 14 would be a play for me so let me know if I am missing something, as I know you guys will set me straight if I am, thanks!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
That would be my lean. The teams that have given UGA trouble over the last few seasons have been the ones with an explosive offense that can score on chunk plays, and then force UGA to try to keep up. I still think it's going to be tough to have extended drives agains that defense, so I get why you see the results against a team like Kentucky. I don't think UGA's offense is particularly explosive, so I do think Mizozu can give them trouble like they did last year.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I took the points, but I'm not that confident Florida can win. This 4 game stretch for UGA has the potential though for the Bulldogs to have to play several 60 minute games in a row for the first time in a few seasons. The cumulative effect may be a bigger issue than any of the individual teams
