SEC Week 9 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
A little depressing writing week 9. Another light slate due to bye weeks. Here are my PR lines:

Mizzou -18.5
UGA -16.5
AU -2
UK -1
 
COCKTAIL PARTY!! Wonder if Dan will have anything up his sleeve. I made it 13.5 and I think I lean UGA at this point. Gator D against LSU was so bad.
 
aplous said:
COCKTAIL PARTY!! Wonder if Dan will have anything up his sleeve. I made it 13.5 and I think I lean UGA at this point. Gator D against LSU was so bad.
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Surely, Anthony Richardson is the starter for Florida. Only chance of keeping it close.
 
id imagine mizzou will be able to pass all over vandy but no chance i could lay more than 2 tds with that redic bad defense they playing. no clue what vandy does on offense but if they ever gonna score points in the sec this is the week!
 
What are y'alls thoughts on Ole Miss @ AU? Big game for both to stay alive in SEC West. I've watched AU a couple of times, and I'm still not sure what they do well. Definitely a sum is better than the parts type team. Corral has seemingly cut out the high risk throws that got him in trouble last year, and their defense looks to be much improved against at least average offensive teams. AU at night is a tough place to win. I think Ole Miss is the better team, but something is telling me that this is exactly the kind of game AU usually ends up winning. If it turns into a track meet, I think Ole Miss pulls away. But if AU can run those RBs and Nix can dance around and complete those busted plays, I could see a 27-24 type game that AU can win. Interested to hear from Grovehard and captjohn
 
gps_3 said:
What are y'alls thoughts on Ole Miss @ AU? Big game for both to stay alive in SEC West. I've watched AU a couple of times, and I'm still not sure what they do well. Definitely a sum is better than the parts type team. Corral has seemingly cut out the high risk throws that got him in trouble last year, and their defense looks to be much improved against at least average offensive teams. AU at night is a tough place to win. I think Ole Miss is the better team, but something is telling me that this is exactly the kind of game AU usually ends up winning. If it turns into a track meet, I think Ole Miss pulls away. But if AU can run those RBs and Nix can dance around and complete those busted plays, I could see a 27-24 type game that AU can win. Interested to hear from Grovehard and captjohn
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I like AUB. They could Score everytime they get the ball.
 
Ole Miss isn’t quite running on fumes at this point, but they’re pretty damn close. Injuries have piled up on offense: WR, OL, TE, and QB. The LSU game was probably the best coaching job from this staff top to bottom since they’ve been in Oxford. Kiffin slowed the pace and leaned on the run game. That protected the D and kept Corral from getting more banged up. If Ole Miss doesn’t get Sanders and/or Mingo back for Auburn then the game plan will probably look very similar.

I have no idea what the above comment is based on re: Auburn scoring on every possession. I assume that someone just hasn’t watched many Ole Miss games this year. They aren’t world beaters, but Ole Miss’ D is certainly capable of keeping Auburn in the low 30’s.

It comes down to a couple of angles for me - does Ole miss get some WRs back and if not, can Ole Miss run on Auburn’s front 7? Does the dam break for a thin Ole Miss D that has logged some heavy snaps (although not last week)?

Bama was only team that Ole Miss didn’t run against, and I think game flow impacted that. I don’t think Auburn has Bama’s horses up front. Can Ole Miss stop Auburn’s run game? Meh. Probably not as often I would like.

There’s also the persistent rumor that Auburn will be without some guys due to suspensions. I don’t know how to handicap that without more info but it’s out there.

I don’t see much of an edge. Maybe under if it creeps up.
 
I think the auburn line is about right. The week of rest was much needed and we should be back to almost all hands on deck. Pappoe being back would be huge IMO. Gun to my head I’d be on auburn but doubt I’ll be involved unless it’s live. Should be a great game.

One other thing on my radar….if you read between the lines it would seem from Harsin’s comments that’s he’s not vaccinated and has no intention of doing so. Granted that’s speculation on my part but it’s hard to think otherwise. With the Dec 8 deadline approaching, it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
 
And if I am right on my speculation, I hope he makes them fire him and sues the hell out the university. Fuck them
 
captjohn67 said:
I think the auburn line is about right. The week of rest was much needed and we should be back to almost all hands on deck. Pappoe being back would be huge IMO. Gun to my head I’d be on auburn but doubt I’ll be involved unless it’s live. Should be a great game.

One other thing on my radar….if you read between the lines it would seem from Harsin’s comments that’s he’s not vaccinated and has no intention of doing so. Granted that’s speculation on my part but it’s hard to think otherwise. With the Dec 8 deadline approaching, it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
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I’m guessing this is another state mandate thing similar to Wash St?
 
Grovehard said:
Ole Miss isn’t quite running on fumes at this point, but they’re pretty damn close. Injuries have piled up on offense: WR, OL, TE, and QB. The LSU game was probably the best coaching job from this staff top to bottom since they’ve been in Oxford. Kiffin slowed the pace and leaned on the run game. That protected the D and kept Corral from getting more banged up. If Ole Miss doesn’t get Sanders and/or Mingo back for Auburn then the game plan will probably look very similar.

I have no idea what the above comment is based on re: Auburn scoring on every possession. I assume that someone just hasn’t watched many Ole Miss games this year. They aren’t world beaters, but Ole Miss’ D is certainly capable of keeping Auburn in the low 30’s.

It comes down to a couple of angles for me - does Ole miss get some WRs back and if not, can Ole Miss run on Auburn’s front 7? Does the dam break for a thin Ole Miss D that has logged some heavy snaps (although not last week)?

Bama was only team that Ole Miss didn’t run against, and I think game flow impacted that. I don’t think Auburn has Bama’s horses up front. Can Ole Miss stop Auburn’s run game? Meh. Probably not as often I would like.

There’s also the persistent rumor that Auburn will be without some guys due to suspensions. I don’t know how to handicap that without more info but it’s out there.

I don’t see much of an edge. Maybe under if it creeps up.
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Nothing concrete on the suspensions but where there’s smoke there’s fire? One statement says probably not any starters but who the hell knows. Certainly can’t play this game until this is clarified imo
 
captjohn67 said:
No sir. The state doesn’t participate, solely on the university
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Yeah the state has outlawed mandates, but AU and Alabama are governed solely by their board of trustees. Something relating back to the state constitution. If Harsin beats Alabama, I bet he gets an exemption
 
captjohn67 said:
And if I am right on my speculation, I hope he makes them fire him and sues the hell out the university. Fuck them
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or maybe, just get the damn shot. that as much as i wanna get into it, lol. back to football..

you would think bigsby be able to gash ol piss on the ground which should help Nix who i think has improved a great deal this year, i remember when he used to be god awful on the road, sometimes at home but the splits were crazy i believe. This year he has played some his best games on the road, he just lit up a arkansas defense i think is somewhat similar to what he will see this week from a scheme standpoint.. that feels like a pretty big advantage. this the 1st big home game they have played this year unless ya count uga, no sense in doing that cause nobody has had a chance vs them so far!!!
 
Ole Miss off 4 huge games (bama/ark/tenn/lsu).....lots of injuries all over (especially the O)...WR and O Line are big issues....Corral has 67 carries in the last 4 games...not sustainable against a good D Line line Auburn has....now a night game in Death Valley facing a hungry squad off a bye....

I'm no Nix fan...but the kid give 110% and has balls ....this has Auburn 38-27 written all over it.....more of a fade of Ole Miss in actuality.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Won't matter if UF can't figure out how to stop the run.
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im not real sure it matters anyways, just curious..

most likely ill be looking at the gators team total under, that pretty much the 1st place i start with every uga game.. I was lucky the oddmakers set uk at 9.5 instead of 10.5 or i woulda lost on that one, thought uk could score 10 tho so they bailed me out with the number!! im assuming gators number be around 18? gotta like the under anything higher that 17 no?

i just saw dawgs are 2nd in the country allowing 2.2 yards per rush, who the hell is better? wiscy only guess i have, if not them it gotta be some really small school who has played a ton of scrubs, 2nd in the country in yards per pass also,, no guess at all on who better than them?
 
2daBank said:
im not real sure it matters anyways, just curious..

most likely ill be looking at the gators team total under, that pretty much the 1st place i start with every uga game.. I was lucky the oddmakers set uk at 9.5 instead of 10.5 or i woulda lost on that one, thought uk could score 10 tho so they bailed me out with the number!! im assuming gators number be around 18? gotta like the under anything higher that 17 no?

i just saw dawgs are 2nd in the country allowing 2.2 yards per rush, who the hell is better? wiscy only guess i have, if not them it gotta be some really small school who has played a ton of scrubs, 2nd in the country in yards per pass also,, no guess at all on who better than them?
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I think the total is low. I expect a heavy dose of AR15 so I think FL will be able to score some. I could see something like 34-20 or so. Let's not forget how crazy this series can get.
 
Ryno14 said:
I think the total is low. I expect a heavy dose of AR15 so I think FL will be able to score some. I could see something like 34-20 or so. Let's not forget how crazy this series can get.
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yea that does worry me but still think im good with taking gators under 18 or whatever it is and living with it. that feels like a bunch of points to score on uga, i know they typically have a good d but dont think it ever been this good! before last year uga had held gators to 17 or less 3 years straight, i think trask throwing to the weapons they had last year a lot tougher matchup than it be for dawgs to shut down these running qbs.
 
2daBank said:
yea that does worry me but still think im good with taking gators under 18 or whatever it is and living with it. that feels like a bunch of points to score on uga, i know they typically have a good d but dont think it ever been this good! before last year uga had held gators to 17 or less 3 years straight, i think trask throwing to the weapons they had last year a lot tougher matchup than it be for dawgs to shut down these running qbs.
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Mullen knows how to scheme against this defense, so I wouldn't be surprised to see UF have some success on offense, especially with Richardson early. But that may only mean 10-14 points, and I don't trust Florida to keep UGA out of the endzone.

Did I see that JT Daniels is expected to be available for the game?
 
gps_3 said:
Mullen knows how to scheme against this defense, so I wouldn't be surprised to see UF have some success on offense, especially with Richardson early. But that may only mean 10-14 points, and I don't trust Florida to keep UGA out of the endzone.

Did I see that JT Daniels is expected to be available for the game?
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I’m not sure on him, I was asking also.

Mullen def can scheme things up, I just don’t know it matters against this d? Especially coming in with QBs who I’m not sure are real accurate. Granted ak47 appeared limited but uk held them to 13 points.
 
2daBank said:
I’m not sure on him, I was asking also.

Mullen def can scheme things up, I just don’t know it matters against this d? Especially coming in with QBs who I’m not sure are real accurate. Granted ak47 appeared limited but uk held them to 13 points.
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Maybe not. But he, with Richardson at QB, can make them think. And when you're thinking, you play slow. Exhibit A: Alabama. Even as good as UGA is on defense, if they are forced to think, you have a chance
 
gps_3 said:
Maybe not. But he, with Richardson at QB, can make them think. And when you're thinking, you play slow. Exhibit A: Alabama. Even as good as UGA is on defense, if they are forced to think, you have a chance
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Bama d nowhere close to this uga d. Hard for me to envision these guys not just flying to the ball and causing all kinds of havoc. Maybe you right I dunno, I can’t imagine passing a any tt above 2 tds against this guys, if it loses so be it. I don’t really see any other way I could get involved. I don’t want to lay the points but don’t want them either.
 
2daBank said:
Bama d nowhere close to this uga d. Hard for me to envision these guys not just flying to the ball and causing all kinds of havoc. Maybe you right I dunno, I can’t imagine passing a any tt above 2 tds against this guys, if it loses so be it. I don’t really see any other way I could get involved. I don’t want to lay the points but don’t want them either.
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They fly to the ball and cause havoc because they are well coached in addition to being talented. That was my point. They haven't had to think and just react, because they haven't faced an offense capable of making them think. Maybe Florida won't either. I was just saying that I think Mullen can slow that defense down enough for the over to be in play. Or maybe Florida turns it over 4 times and UGA scores 40+

And I agree that Alabama's defense isn't as good as UGA. My point was that our defense plays slower than they should because they are thinking too much. Except Will Anderson. He's a beast
 
gps_3 said:
Mullen knows how to scheme against this defense, so I wouldn't be surprised to see UF have some success on offense, especially with Richardson early. But that may only mean 10-14 points, and I don't trust Florida to keep UGA out of the endzone.

Did I see that JT Daniels is expected to be available for the game?
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Everyone here assumed this was the week, after the bye, is when we'd see JT.

Now Kirby is saying he'd like to see both play this Saturday. So I believe JT will play. But Kirby loves him some Stetson, so who the hell knows how this will play out.
 
CPA-hole said:
Everyone here assumed this was the week, after the bye, is when we'd see JT.

Now Kirby is saying he'd like to see both play this Saturday. So I believe JT will play. But Kirby loves him some Stetson, so who the hell knows how this will play out.
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Tells you what Kirby thinks of Florida’s chances this weekend
 
Does anybody know why Kirby put in Stetson early vs South Carolina when there was no reason to? I think it was 1st Q or early 2nd Q, they weren't up that big yet. Think he through an INT didn't he? And then they put Bennett back in. I don't understand.
 
I kind of like Florida to pull the upset here. Mullen always plays up to the competition and has great, great gameplans in these big games. I expect Ar15 and Emory to play and to see some wild stuff. Both on the field at once, etc. Georgia defense has been great no doubt but who have they really played? Look at the QB they have played so far. They are all terrible.

Just kind of feels like Georgia is toying around too. Everyone has them penciled in for the playoffs and waiting for the Bama game. No one thinks FLA has a chance. But FLA has players. Their underlying metrics are very good. I think they punch Georgia in the mouth here. It'll be very interesting to see how a team that hasn't had a lick of adversity reacts.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
I kind of like Florida to pull the upset here. Mullen always plays up to the competition and has great, great gameplans in these big games. I expect Ar15 and Emory to play and to see some wild stuff. Both on the field at once, etc. Georgia defense has been great no doubt but who have they really played? Look at the QB they have played so far. They are all terrible.

Just kind of feels like Georgia is toying around too. Everyone has them penciled in for the playoffs and waiting for the Bama game. No one thinks FLA has a chance. But FLA has players. Their underlying metrics are very good. I think they punch Georgia in the mouth here. It'll be very interesting to see how a team that hasn't had a lick of adversity reacts.
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Kirby always has a slip up as well.
 
Anything is possible. We all have our doubts about the Georgia offense, or atleast their personnel running the offense. On the other hand we continually have doubts raised about the Florida D, whether it is pass D in playing too far off receivers or now run D with just getting annihilated by LSU's previously anemic run game. Hard to have confidence in it, but it could happen.
 
I'm more inclined to believe that Florida keeps it close for a half than has a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. I do think this could be a game where the UGA defense doesn't look invincible, merely excellent
 
gps_3 said:
I'm more inclined to believe that Florida keeps it close for a half than has a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. I do think this could be a game where the UGA defense doesn't look invincible, merely excellent
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Agree with this take
 
gps_3 said:
I'm more inclined to believe that Florida keeps it close for a half than has a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. I do think this could be a game where the UGA defense doesn't look invincible, merely excellent
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Maybe FL TT over could be play?
 
Could FLA do it? Sure it’s a huge rivalry game and shit happens.

I can’t get the LSU/FLA game outta my mind though. I know it’s competitive there but man Mullen’s classes are pretty pedestrian
 
Alabama bye week….
Quick question to anyone that can answer this.

How is Alabama opponents TT do this year? Besides the Miss st game, I believe the opponents TT goes over?

Alabama 1H used to be goldmine, they still pretty good this year, but that secondary is giving up chunk plays.
 
gps_3 said:
What are y'alls thoughts on Ole Miss @ AU?
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This game caught my eye right away and I liked Auburn right away.

But LSU caught my eye right away last week and for all the same reasons Auburn did this week and Old Miss kicked their ass--mine too for that matter.

I still like Auburn, but I'm interested in what you SEC guys decide
 
s--k said:
Does anybody know why Kirby put in Stetson early vs South Carolina when there was no reason to? I think it was 1st Q or early 2nd Q, they weren't up that big yet. Think he through an INT didn't he? And then they put Bennett back in. I don't understand.
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Kirby being Kirby. Daniels leads them to TDs on the 1st two drives. Then puts Bennett in and promptly throws an INT that SC nearly took to the house.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
I kind of like Florida to pull the upset here. Mullen always plays up to the competition and has great, great gameplans in these big games. I expect Ar15 and Emory to play and to see some wild stuff. Both on the field at once, etc. Georgia defense has been great no doubt but who have they really played? Look at the QB they have played so far. They are all terrible.

Just kind of feels like Georgia is toying around too. Everyone has them penciled in for the playoffs and waiting for the Bama game. No one thinks FLA has a chance. But FLA has players. Their underlying metrics are very good. I think they punch Georgia in the mouth here. It'll be very interesting to see how a team that hasn't had a lick of adversity reacts.
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i suppose you could look at this as gators SB while really not a hugely important game for dawgs, that kinda goofy to say but just like bama had a slip up uga can have one also and the sec champ will still get in,. obviously it be nice for them to go into the sec ship undefeated as then they could lose to bama and still get in.. i think it be better for everyone (besides uga and their fans) if the sec championship game was a elimination game!! i think it be a bummer if we go into sec championship game with only bama having to win, ive always been of the belief all the conf championships should be de-facto playoff games. dont care if one team undefeated coming in, if you dont win your conf you cant be a national champion in my eyes!!
 
I just really don't thing UF hold the Dawgs under low to mid 30s and don't see any way the Gators can put up anything close to that barring turnovers
 
KJ said:
I just really don't thing UF hold the Dawgs under low to mid 30s and don't see any way the Gators can put up anything close to that barring turnovers
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I can see 38-21. The more I think about it, the more I lean over.
 
It was mentioned in the week 9 discussion thread, but there are rumors that AU is suspending a few players. I looked on an AU message board, and they think it's 4 DL and a CB, and that it stems from positive drug tests. No idea if true or not
 
gps_3 said:
It was mentioned in the week 9 discussion thread, but there are rumors that AU is suspending a few players. I looked on an AU message board, and they think it's 4 DL and a CB, and that it stems from positive drug tests. No idea if true or not
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They got the LSU rule there? I hope we ditch it with new guy
 
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