SEC Week 9 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
SEC games for Oct 25:


Alabama (-17/46) @ Tennessee

Arkansas (-23'/65) v UAB

Miss St (-13'/59) @ Kentucky

Vanderbilt (+21/45) @ Mizzou

Ole Miss (-3'/44') @ LSU

S. Carolina (+17'/65) @ AU

BYE: Florida, UGA, aTm


Discuss...
 
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South Carolina's leading DT is out for the game. Doesn't bode well for stopping the Auburn rushing attach even though stopping the run is the only thing the SoCar defense does relatively well. Auburn with 2 weeks to prepare could have a big day offensively
 
Since I worked Saturday , I was spared the bloodletting Bama put on the Ags.
Ags and Fla have to be glad they aren't playing this week. I watched some of FLA when I got home. That was awful.

Arky has to be wore out.
Can't wait to see the total in Baton Rouge.
Same for total in Aubbie.
 
Situations of note:

Alabama coming off a big win, going on the road to Tennessee. Big rivalry historically, Alabama has bye the week after

AU off a bye, first game in a tough stretch of games: SC, @OM, aTm, @UGA, Samford, @Alabama

LSU hosting Ole Miss for homecoming. Bye then Alabama on deck

Ole Miss still in a stretch of tough games. @LSU, then host AU. Very impressive the way they've maintained a high level of play the last few games. Didn't think they could make it out unbeaten, still don't, but less sure of that than ever

Miss St off a bye, been #1 for 2 weeks. Interesting to see how they handle expectations on the road against a decent opponent

Ark gets UAB between Alabama, UGA, and plays @ Miss St next week. Looking hard at the Blazers

UK in a brutal stretch right now. Not sure how much they have left in the tank, but might not have given much effort 2H last week
 
--interested in the team total over on UAB
-- Tenn hasn't posted more than 17 on the "third Saturday in October" in 10 years, with an avg of 11.1 in those 10 years. Team total under??
--guess i am one of the few pulling for ole piss.
--Furman rushed for 5.4 yds a carry this past weekend...ruh roh
--Florida's season reminds me of Chizik's last year
--Charleston Southern had 4.9 yds per carry this past weekend
 
I watch Sumlin's pressers each week.
This weeks was especially funny if you keep the sound off. The facial expressions you've seen from many coaches after watching their teams get throttled.
It's somewhere between wanting someone to throw a life preserver or ask a question about how he likes his steak.
 
don't know how lsu moves the ball against that ole miss defense, don't care where the game is being played. also don't understand how tenny is gonna keep it close, schedule be damned. tenny's o line is gonna be obliterated by the 3rd quarter.
 
I went to the Alabama game and had a bunch of family stuff yesterday, so I'm still catching up on what happened elsewhere in the conference. Some thoughts:

Good lord Florida. As I mentioned in the WDWL thread, I was eating and the game was on mute, so I assumed Mizzou was just dominating the Gators. Had no idea until later. Saw on ESPN that night that teams that give up 120 yards or less on defense are something like 167-2 the last 10 years. Both losses are UF under Muschamp. Not that it is groundbreaking, but Muschamp is gone.

UGA is quietly rounding into form as one of the legit contenders (and only East team) for the SEC. I would not be shocked to see them beat the West winner in the SECCG. They appear to be one of the more well-rounded teams in the conference and the nation. That SC loss is still awful, and they haven't really played much since, but they are quietly going about their business and could very well have a lot to say about who from the SEC makes the playoff. Have heard (maybe here) that they expect Gurley to be back by UK on 11.8. Gurley and Chubb would be a handful for anyone

Ole Miss is starting to remind me of the AU teams of last year and 2010 in that they keep winning and keep covering in difficult situations. A great defense will certainly help, and maybe Bo turned a corner. Still have 4 tough conference games coming up, and I wouldn't bet on them staying undefeated, but I'm done putting my money against them

Arkansas and Tennessee are similar in that they are improved with nothing to show for it. Arkansas could still knock off one of the Mississippi teams, but UT's only chance of an SEC win is Vandy IMO.

I'm not going to go into the Alabama game much, and I'm not going to put too much into beating a tired and not very good aTm team. The things I take away from Alabama is that they probably still have the best defense in the conference. Ole Miss is awesome and is better at creating turnovers, but I think Alabama's is better overall. The offense is good at destroying bad defenses, especially at home. I don't think any team can single cover Amari Cooper, so to contain him you have to play press man with safety help. That should open up the run game, but we struggled there in both the road games. If the UT game was in Tuscaloosa, it would be similar to this past game. They're going to have to show me something on the road before I believe they are an elite, title contender. One thing that wasn't as evident on TV as it was live, was how much energy, emotion, and dare I say, fun, the team had during the game. From the moment they walked out of the tunnel until the game was over, the whole team was jumping around and having fun. Something I haven't seen in Saban's 7 years. If that translates into the team playing fast and loose, they may have turned a corner, and certainly Saban would have.
 
gps_3 said:
I went to the Alabama game and had a bunch of family stuff yesterday, so I'm still catching up on what happened elsewhere in the conference. Some thoughts:

Good lord Florida. As I mentioned in the WDWL thread, I was eating and the game was on mute, so I assumed Mizzou was just dominating the Gators. Had no idea until later. Saw on ESPN that night that teams that give up 120 yards or less on defense are something like 167-2 the last 10 years. Both losses are UF under Muschamp. Not that it is groundbreaking, but Muschamp is gone.

UGA is quietly rounding into form as one of the legit contenders (and only East team) for the SEC. I would not be shocked to see them beat the West winner in the SECCG. They appear to be one of the more well-rounded teams in the conference and the nation. That SC loss is still awful, and they haven't really played much since, but they are quietly going about their business and could very well have a lot to say about who from the SEC makes the playoff. Have heard (maybe here) that they expect Gurley to be back by UK on 11.8. Gurley and Chubb would be a handful for anyone

Ole Miss is starting to remind me of the AU teams of last year and 2010 in that they keep winning and keep covering in difficult situations. A great defense will certainly help, and maybe Bo turned a corner. Still have 4 tough conference games coming up, and I wouldn't bet on them staying undefeated, but I'm done putting my money against them

Arkansas and Tennessee are similar in that they are improved with nothing to show for it. Arkansas could still knock off one of the Mississippi teams, but UT's only chance of an SEC win is Vandy IMO.

I'm not going to go into the Alabama game much, and I'm not going to put too much into beating a tired and not very good aTm team. The things I take away from Alabama is that they probably still have the best defense in the conference. Ole Miss is awesome and is better at creating turnovers, but I think Alabama's is better overall. The offense is good at destroying bad defenses, especially at home. I don't think any team can single cover Amari Cooper, so to contain him you have to play press man with safety help. That should open up the run game, but we struggled there in both the road games. If the UT game was in Tuscaloosa, it would be similar to this past game. They're going to have to show me something on the road before I believe they are an elite, title contender. One thing that wasn't as evident on TV as it was live, was how much energy, emotion, and dare I say, fun, the team had during the game. From the moment they walked out of the tunnel until the game was over, the whole team was jumping around and having fun. Something I haven't seen in Saban's 7 years. If that translates into the team playing fast and loose, they may have turned a corner, and certainly Saban would have.
Click to expand...
They were quoting Saban during the game where he said the kids forgot to have fun with the game and jsut to "run with it"..there was Secretariat reference in there as well with Saban and one of their trainers...point of the story was that the bama kids weren't having fun and that was preached to them before last week's game.
 
gsro,

Saban mentioned it earlier in the week. The advice actually came from Jay Seawell, the men's golf coach. Whatever it was, I'd say it worked. Not convinced they can continue it, but am hopeful
 
UK in a brutal stretch right now. Not sure how much they have left in the tank, but might not have given much effort 2H last week
Click to expand...

Am thinking about taking UK this week. One thing I saw was Stoop's had his team bouncing back twice last year after bad defeats: lost 7-24 (+11) home vs UF, next week only lost 28-35 (+21') at SC. Next week lost 7-48 home vs Bama, followed it up only losing 22-28 (+11) at Miss St. Now this all goes out the window in the second half of their 2013 season when they ended on a 4 game losing streak and weren't very competitive vs Mizzou, Vandy, Georgia and UT in successive weeks. But this season feels different for them. They did trail SC by 14 twice I think before they came back and won. I don't think however they can just wildcat their way to a win over a rested Miss St team (unlike the tired SC team). They will need Towles to have an outstanding game.
 
Updated lines with totals above.

Not sure what to think about the AU game. Part of me says AU will run SC out of the stadium, but part of me thinks the OBC will have his team ready and give AU all they want and more. Staying away for now, but am looking at taking the points

UK-MSU, we'll see how Miss St handles being #1. One thing I've seen is MSU struggling to put games away. They came out hot against LSU, aTm, and AU, and let them all back in the game. They should beat UK, but if they don't get off to a fast start, they could be in danger. If anything, their second half struggles opens the backdoor

If Alabama can play even 75% like they did last week, this game will be a blowout. But until I see them actually perform on the road, I won't believe they are truly elite. At home, they are likely the best team in the country. On the road, to this point, they can be beaten by most teams that have a winning record. UT is pretty banged up, playing their 5th straight and 4th out of 5 SEC games. Lean Alabama, but will likely look to play UT TT under.

I like the over in Arkansas. Both offenses match up well with the opposing defenses' weakness. Would lean UAB and the points and will bite if it gets to 24

LSU-OM is interesting to me. LSU is getting better, but Ole Miss just keeps playing well and covering as Vegas keeps doubting them (much like AU their SEC Championship years). I still think winning on the road in the west is a very difficult thing, and night time in Red Stick is probably the hardest. I was expecting a line of 6 or 7, but a line of 3 tells me a lot. I may sprinkle some on LSU ML. In my mind, it's either a comfortable Rebel win, or LSU SU

Mizzou-Vandy is pretty much unwatchable and unbettable. I guess under? 3 TDs seems like a lot to cover for an offense as poor as Mizzou's, but no way I can trust Vandy's defense, much less their offense to not give it to the Tigers all day. Pass
 
Arkansas and AU lines both made big jumps today, and I ended up taking UAB +27 and SCAR +19.
 
Hearing that Worley and 2 OL might miss game due to injury for tenny. Not sure how they are going to score
 
hmmmm with the Tenn injury news surfacing I am very surprised my book did not pull this game down yet...unless this was already news to Vegas and factored into the line
 
Multiple vols, including jalen Hurd have the flu. Alabama up to -19
 
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