SEC Week 8

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 8:

LSU +2.5 @ Vanderbilt (what a world we live in now)
OU -4.5 @ South Carolina
Ole Miss +6.5 @ UGA
aTm -7.5 @ Arkansas
Miss St +10 @ Florida
Texas -11.5 @ Kentucky
Tennessee +7.5 @ Alabama
Mizzou -1.5 @ AU
 
Early line on Ole Miss/Georgia last week was 10.5. Don’t understand the movement to 6.5. I liked it at +10.5 - do not like +6.5. Rebels looked sluggish almost to the point of me wondering if they were literally hungover on Saturday. It was unseasonably hot (heat index in 90s) but that doesn’t excuse their half assed lackluster performance. Kiffin is not good on road against quality opposition - it’s GA -6.5 or nothing for me.
 
Not sure how it affects my thinking on the game in AU, but it was announced today that 2nd team RB and team captain Damari Alston has left the program. According to the AU folks, Alston asked to redshirt this season as he's only appeared in 4 games. Freeze refused, telling him he's being paid to play so he needs to play or quit, and he chose to quit. I think AU/Freeze may be cooked. We'll see what kind of effort they put up this weekend, win or lose, but I think we're past the backs against the wall period. I think we're at dead man walking
 
Charles0619 said:
Early line on Ole Miss/Georgia last week was 10.5. Don’t understand the movement to 6.5. I liked it at +10.5 - do not like +6.5. Rebels looked sluggish almost to the point of me wondering if they were literally hungover on Saturday. It was unseasonably hot (heat index in 90s) but that doesn’t excuse their half assed lackluster performance. Kiffin is not good on road against quality opposition - it’s GA -6.5 or nothing for me.
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Pretty big move, no doubt.

That was a wildly uninterested Ole Piss team last Saturday. They almost got caught !
 
Mizzou and Auburn is an interesting one!

How do teams generally react the week after Bama @gps_3 ?

Such a disappointment late Saturday night for Barn too.

Motivation cap here!!
 
B.A.R. said:
Mizzou and Auburn is an interesting one!

How do teams generally react the week after Bama @gps_3 ?

Such a disappointment late Saturday night for Barn too.

Motivation cap here!!
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It used to be that teams were pretty beat up after playing us, but that doesn't seem to be quite the case over the last few seasons. I would think Mizzou having 2 weeks to build up for the Alabama game would cause somewhat of an emotional letdown to go play a team with 3 straight losses. I think AU is either in give up mindset, or let's prove the world wrong mindset. It's not like AU got blown off the field in any of those losses, but it has to be frustrating to keep losing the same way over and over. I watched the recap by the Film Guy on YouTube, and he mentioned that a UGA staffer told him that for most of the first half, AU ran plays that UGA never practiced defending. They were new installs during the bye or AU had held them specifically for UGA. But they ran out of those plays and went back to the same 10-12 RPO plays they've been running the whole time Freeze has been there. The QB isn't good and the offense is predictable, so it doesn't really matter how good the receivers are. The defense for AU has been great, but they can't be put in those bad situations by the offense over and over again. Freeze got the public vote of confidence from the AD yesterday, but I don't think he survives a loss this weekend. Mizzou has the offense capable of putting together long drives, and I doubt they'll be playing from behind like they were against Alabama, so I'd expect a lot of Hardy on Saturday. I think AU is unbettable here, so it's Mizzou or under or nothing IMO
 
gps_3 said:
It used to be that teams were pretty beat up after playing us, but that doesn't seem to be quite the case over the last few seasons. I would think Mizzou having 2 weeks to build up for the Alabama game would cause somewhat of an emotional letdown to go play a team with 3 straight losses. I think AU is either in give up mindset, or let's prove the world wrong mindset. It's not like AU got blown off the field in any of those losses, but it has to be frustrating to keep losing the same way over and over. I watched the recap by the Film Guy on YouTube, and he mentioned that a UGA staffer told him that for most of the first half, AU ran plays that UGA never practiced defending. They were new installs during the bye or AU had held them specifically for UGA. But they ran out of those plays and went back to the same 10-12 RPO plays they've been running the whole time Freeze has been there. The QB isn't good and the offense is predictable, so it doesn't really matter how good the receivers are. The defense for AU has been great, but they can't be put in those bad situations by the offense over and over again. Freeze got the public vote of confidence from the AD yesterday, but I don't think he survives a loss this weekend. Mizzou has the offense capable of putting together long drives, and I doubt they'll be playing from behind like they were against Alabama, so I'd expect a lot of Hardy on Saturday. I think AU is unbettable here, so it's Mizzou or under or nothing IMO
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Appreciate it.
 
11AM @Vandy is that last place you want to find yourself these days.
There is a quiet but growing base that’s ready for MVB. I doubt that happens but if they drop this one, something might change.


Looks like LSU hired the wrong guy out of Indy
 
I don't think Ole Miss can stop the UGA run game. I also think Trinidad is coming back down to Earth a bit and this will be the toughest environment he's played in by a wide margin. Does Kiffin go to Simmons if Trinidad struggles? I don't know. There are conflicting reports on his health. UGA is coming off a tough game that they easily could've lost. Where are they mentally and physically? Tough to handicap.
 
I trust Kirby to have his team ready, especially in a revenge situation. May not matter, but I wouldn't personally be banking on a UGA let down here
 
gps_3 said:
It used to be that teams were pretty beat up after playing us, but that doesn't seem to be quite the case over the last few seasons. I would think Mizzou having 2 weeks to build up for the Alabama game would cause somewhat of an emotional letdown to go play a team with 3 straight losses. I think AU is either in give up mindset, or let's prove the world wrong mindset. It's not like AU got blown off the field in any of those losses, but it has to be frustrating to keep losing the same way over and over. I watched the recap by the Film Guy on YouTube, and he mentioned that a UGA staffer told him that for most of the first half, AU ran plays that UGA never practiced defending. They were new installs during the bye or AU had held them specifically for UGA. But they ran out of those plays and went back to the same 10-12 RPO plays they've been running the whole time Freeze has been there. The QB isn't good and the offense is predictable, so it doesn't really matter how good the receivers are. The defense for AU has been great, but they can't be put in those bad situations by the offense over and over again. Freeze got the public vote of confidence from the AD yesterday, but I don't think he survives a loss this weekend. Mizzou has the offense capable of putting together long drives, and I doubt they'll be playing from behind like they were against Alabama, so I'd expect a lot of Hardy on Saturday. I think AU is unbettable here, so it's Mizzou or under or nothing IMO
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About Mizzou playing a team with three straight losses after playing Bama:

2008 to date, teams after Bama are 2-9 ATS facing a team that has lost 3+ in a row

0-9 ATS if the opponent has lost 3, 4, or 5 straight. 2-0 if opponent has a longer losing streak than that.

0-7 ATS if the opponent has lost 3+ in a row, but won at least 6 games the prior season.

This includes one game post-Saban in 2024.
 
gps_3 said:
Not sure how it affects my thinking on the game in AU, but it was announced today that 2nd team RB and team captain Damari Alston has left the program. According to the AU folks, Alston asked to redshirt this season as he's only appeared in 4 games. Freeze refused, telling him he's being paid to play so he needs to play or quit, and he chose to quit. I think AU/Freeze may be cooked. We'll see what kind of effort they put up this weekend, win or lose, but I think we're past the backs against the wall period. I think we're at dead man walking
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I'm with Freeze on that one.
 
M.W. said:
I wouldn’t be shocked if most of his teammates are as well.
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I think it will go both ways. There will be some who see it as quitting on the team, and others, probably mostly portal/NIL guys, who think the player is right. I think in a vacuum Freeze is right, but at this point, he can't afford to upset the apple cart any more than it already is. I think we saw a lot of placating players in Tuscaloosa last year given the circumstances, and we all saw the results. I wonder if DeBoer had it to do over again if he'd be so accommodating to the players?
 
I'm a little wary of laying the points with Alabama. The situation isn't great, but I think they'll be ready for a rivalry game and revenge situation. Last year, the defense played really well, but I think a lot of it had to due with Nico being Nico and missing some open WR and then throwing it straight to our defenders a few times. Aguilar seems to be far more accurate. On the plus side, Tenn's defense doesn't seem to be as good as last year, and Simpson would have to play his worst game by far to play worse than Milroe did last year. I'm still mulling it over, but I lean toward Alabama winning but it being another close one, with the backdoor wide open
 
M.W. said:
About Mizzou playing a team with three straight losses after playing Bama:

2008 to date, teams after Bama are 2-9 ATS facing a team that has lost 3+ in a row

0-9 ATS if the opponent has lost 3, 4, or 5 straight. 2-0 if opponent has a longer losing streak than that.

0-7 ATS if the opponent has lost 3+ in a row, but won at least 6 games the prior season.

This includes one game post-Saban in 2024.
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I know it's not the actual team, but both fanbases are still going on about last week. Sometimes that can creep into the thinking of the players.
 
gps_3 said:
I know it's not the actual team, but both fanbases are still going on about last week. Sometimes that can creep into the thinking of the players.
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Sometimes it doesn’t have to creep in. Often the players are talking about the same things.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
LSU/Vandy U49.5 looks solid.....Vandy defense at home is enough to contain the Tigers.....and Pavia gonna find sledding tough vs this defense.....
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I agree on this, both of these teams are very slow paced. LSU is the slowest team in the country 56.4 plays/gm and Vandy (122 rk) at 62.2 plays/gm. LSU is #4 in points/play allowed at .188. LSU offense has not produced as expected, with problems in the running game and Nussmeier not playing up to potential. LSU defense though has been rock solid, and I think they will give Pavia a difficult time.
 
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