SEC Week 8

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 8 games:

Vandy @ UK (-11.5)

Alabama @ Tenn (no line yet)

Arkansas (NL) vs Tulsa

Missouri (-9.5) vs Memphis

AU (-3.5) @ Ole Miss

Miss St @ LSU (-6.5)

BYE: aTm, UGA, UF , SCAR


Waiting on injury news for Tua and the Ark QB is my guess as to the no line on those games. Lots to discuss, will get to it as I can today
 
A couple of thoughts :

A few weeks ago, I compared this year's UGA team to the Alabama teams in the beginning of the Saban/Alabama run. I think that still holds true, and was a big reason why I was on LSU Saturday. I wasn't expecting the blowout, but LSU always gave those Alabama teams fits, especially at home. Watching that game, the one thing that stood out to me was the overwhelming toughness on LSU's team compared to UGA. Coach O channeling his inner Les Miles with all the 4th down conversions was also a surprise. What I think LSU is this year is a tough team that makes few mistakes on offense, plays great defense and special teams and at least for one week, knew when to push the right buttons on offense. That will get it done more times than not. Burrow is basically the type of QB Alabama has had for the past decade, so I know that can win you plenty of games, but I'm not convinced he can win the game for them against a tough team. Fromm looked as bad as I've seen him, and I think the more mistakes he made, the more he was looking over his shoulder at Fields. I've heard Kirby made some pretty big promises to Fields to get him to sign, so how he handles this moving forward will be interesting. UGA as a whole kinda looked overwhelmed by the moment, starting with the botched fake FG. I think they'll be fine moving forward. We'll get at least some answers at the cocktail party in 2 weeks. I'd be wary of backing LSU against MSU. Just the emotional comedown for a team that hasn't had great success recently, may be hard to get back up, especially with Bama looming. I think it will be pretty low scoring, with MSU only throwing if they have to. LSU will not be able to drop 7 back in coverage like they did against UGA or Fitzgerald may run for 300 yards

Alabama put a pretty solid defensive effort Saturday night against Mizzou. Quinnen Williams has been a revelation this year, and he had a great game. Thought the secondary held it together pretty well despite losing Diggs for the season. I think this Alabama team can be special, but injuries are piling up again. Obviously the Tua knee situation bears watching. I think we can win with Jalen, but I'd rather not find out. Having him and Tua on the field at the same time seems like we're trying to hard, but I suppose it gives other teams something to think about. I'm hoping we see a change at punter soon. He hasn't had to do much, but what he has done is abysmal. We will need to flip the field at some point, and he can't accomplish that it seems. PK looked good, at least for one week. For the Tennessee game, if Tua plays, expect more of the same of what we have been seeing. If he doesn't, I think we'll win, and probably still cover, but I won't be entertaining betting the 1h like I have been

Be back later
 
Saban says Tua is good to go and is actually better than he was going into the Mizzou game. That sound you hear is the state exhaling
 
Didn't see much of the game, but I think it's safe to say that AU is in full meltdown mode. There had been grumblings that the locker room was divided, now the fanbase wants Gus out. The good news for Gus is that they likely can't afford the buyout. The good news for AU fans is that usually when this happens, AU makes a run at the playoff soon after. I would consider AU fade material moving forward. I guess they could turn it around, but my guess that there is a full implosion. Ole Miss' defense can make anyone's offense look good, but this game comes at the wrong time for AU. If Tenn could throw it around like they did, I have to think Ole Miss can as well. And then it comes down to AU's offense keeping up. I'm not ready to bet Ole Miss, but there's no way I'm backing AU here. If they do lose and lose bad, I do think there's a chance they find a way to fire Gus, but for now I just don't see it

Didn't see much of the other SEC games, sounds like Vandy took advantage of some turnovers and big plays before Florida woke up and handled their business. Arky lost 1 or 2 QBs? Haven't read up on that game yet. Same for aTm/SC.
 
Question in general and I know it has been thrown around before...

Why does Bama struggle to recruit or develop punters and placekickers over the years? Is it just not a focus? Or has there been some bad luck with signings?
 
Arkansas lost their QB and top two RBs, then there was a Chavis special late in the game...like 97 yards in about a minute for the winning TD.
 
Bar - I never post although I have been lurkin forever (Prob 15 years) , Saban has shown extreme interest in a local high school kid kicking 54 yard
fg's with 10 yards to spare. His name is Danny King. Remember that name . Lot of SEC schools recruiting him along with Notre dame. He is only a Junior.
He is from Fort Hill High school in Cumberland,Md.
 
Icehouse said:
Bar - I never post although I have been lurkin forever (Prob 15 years) , Saban has shown extreme interest in a local high school kid kicking 54 yard
fg's with 10 yards to spare. His name is Danny King. Remember that name . Lot of SEC schools recruiting him along with Notre dame. He is only a Junior.
He is from Fort Hill High school in Cumberland,Md.
Click to expand...

Will do!

I follow recruiting quite a bit. I'll check him out.
 
Metcalf is a loss, but his absence seems to have forced Ta'amu and Longo to actually use the middle of the field and throw some intermediate passes rather than going for the homerun on every play. There are capable backups, and the other starters are versatile enough to shuffle the deck. The defense is still bad enough to make Auburn look competent on O. I don't see an angle in this one, but I don't have a total yet.
 
B.A.R. said:
Question in general and I know it has been thrown around before...

Why does Bama struggle to recruit or develop punters and placekickers over the years? Is it just not a focus? Or has there been some bad luck with signings?
Click to expand...

It's more of a development issue than a recruiting one, and it's also not as bad as the perception. On the second part, because of the high profile misses that have occurred, notably missing 5 against LSU in 2011 as well as the kick 6 in 2013, it appears that Alabama has had worse kicking than other teams. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but if you look at the FG% of Alabama kickers vs the nation, they fall pretty much in line. Not exceptional, but not overwhelmingly bad. On the recruiting/development side, the guys that we have signed have all been top kickers in high school with multiple offers to P5 programs. So it's not necessarily not having the talent. But this is the first season Alabama has had a dedicated special teams coach. It's always been a shared duty until the new rule allowing an extra coach. Until then, the kickers were given instructions on what Saban wanted, and then they were left to develop on their own for the most part. Seems totally unlike Saban, but I guess he felt that was the one area where he didn't have to be consistently excellent. So I think that explains a lot. We also lost a great kicker in Eddy Piniero, who decommitted and went to Florida. This year though, it appears we are at the worst we've ever been. Punting has been exceptionally awful, especially after having JK Scott the last 4 years. We have the #1 PK in the country committed to us currently, so maybe help is on the way.
 
gps_3 said:
I'd be wary of backing LSU against MSU. Just the emotional comedown for a team that hasn't had great success recently, may be hard to get back up, especially with Bama looming. I think it will be pretty low scoring, with MSU only throwing if they have to. LSU will not be able to drop 7 back in coverage like they did against UGA or Fitzgerald may run for 300 yards.
Click to expand...

LSU has a bye week before Bama, so that should help. I continue to believe that any DC who can't defend Miss. State right now should be fired. Fitzgerald is just flat out terrible in the air, completing, what, 45% of his passes?. At the D-1 level that's simply abysmal. Miss. State's entire offense feels like a Fitzgerald run right, and then a Fitzgerald run left, and then another one to the right. And given how good LSU is in the secondary and poor MSU is in the air, Aranda can pretty much commit to letting his corners take care of MSU's WRs and letting everyone else play within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage to just shut down Fitzgerald running, and thus shut down MSU's offense. I can't see Miss State putting up many points in this game at all.

The emotional issue is a obviously an important one for LSU. They'll get a lift from the crowd playing a night game. If they're somewhat ready / focused, I think they handle the Cowbells with ease. Just not impressed with MSU at all.
 
Grovehard said:
Metcalf is a loss, but his absence seems to have forced Ta'amu and Longo to actually use the middle of the field and throw some intermediate passes rather than going for the homerun on every play. There are capable backups, and the other starters are versatile enough to shuffle the deck. The defense is still bad enough to make Auburn look competent on O. I don't see an angle in this one, but I don't have a total yet.
Click to expand...

BOL opener and currently sitting at 61.5 on the total
 
I took Ole Miss +2.5 thinking it may drift the other way. Auburn is basically an auto fade for me at this point. It’s possible the Ole Miss defense helps them get going, but as bad as they’ve been the last month I’ll pay to see it. Their running game has been bad so can they just line up and run over Ole Miss like other teams have done? If they have to let Stidham be the focal point does it give the OM defense a fighting chance? We already know the OM passing game is a bad matchup for the Auburn secondary. Even if Auburn can generate offense can they keep up?
 
I think State’s lines may give LSU more trouble than Georgia’s did. LSU still not playing many defensive linemen but at least the OL May start the same combo for the third straight week, though Adrian Magee was replaced at LG by true freshman Chasen Hines early in the game last week so that may be a performance related change.
 
Miss St has the best statistical defense in the conference at this point, and many thought before the season that they had the best DL in the country, never mind the SEC. I think both teams are in for a dogfight. Likely comes down to which QB makes the bigger plays in the passing game, or which one avoids the big mistake.
 
It's obviously not a perfect, or even accurate, pulse of the program, but I checked out one of the big sites' AU message board, and it's basically all about who can they get to replace Gus. With the way the media is talking, and the way the fans are feeling, there's no doubt that the team is hearing some of this negativity. I guess they'll either band together and show improvement, or continue to implode. This is a very important game for AU IMO. Maybe not for Gus, because he's getting paid either way, but if they lose this one, I doubt they win another game unless it's against Liberty, and I don't think they're quite the pushover AU was expecting when they scheduled the game
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Noting LSU‘s recent trouble in trap games. Like Troy ahead of Florida
Click to expand...

What makes Mississippi State a "trap" game for LSU? They have a bye next week and Miss St beat them by 30 last year. You expect LSU to looking past them?
 
s--k said:
What makes Mississippi State a "trap" game for LSU? They have a bye next week and Miss St beat them by 30 last year. You expect LSU to looking past them?
Click to expand...
VirginiaCavs said:
Plus the let-down
Click to expand...

Maybe Miss State wins the game, but I don't believe that either a "trap game" or a "let down" is in play this week when LSU is playing a divisional opponent that embarrassed them last year.
 
s--k said:
Maybe Miss State wins the game, but I don't believe that either a "trap game" or a "let down" is in play this week when LSU is playing a divisional opponent that embarrassed them last year.
Click to expand...

Bama on deck.
Different pieces than last year, don't think players care that much about a regular season game from a year ago. So many counter examples, like FSU was supposedly determined to stop Lamar Jackson last year cause of what he did to them the year before. FSU lost big as the favored team. Here and now I think is the proper focus. Either way, I think revenge angle is nonsense, as if LSU would play harder than MSU. Oh well. Agree to disagree.
 
i have played alabama 1h and won the last 3 times on their 7-0 run. the spot to fade bama 2nd half is also a good play. i am gonna sit out the bama 1h play but look to see value in tennessee 2h.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Bama on deck.
Different pieces than last year, don't think players care that much about a regular season game from a year ago. So many counter examples, like FSU was supposedly determined to stop Lamar Jackson last year cause of what he did to them the year before. FSU lost big as the favored team. Here and now I think is the proper focus. Either way, I think revenge angle is nonsense, as if LSU would play harder than MSU. Oh well. Agree to disagree.
Click to expand...

Alabama is two weeks away though.

I do think players and coaches care, atleast they are quoted as caring.

Every game is different because of different variables. I think you could probably find better examples of revenge not mattering, FSU is not one of them. FSU was a terrible team last year not properly suited to beat a team better than them with a special player running the show. FSU may've had the want-to, they lacked the how-to. LSU should have both this week.

But let's end with agreement. Revenge is over used all the time, yeah I agree. I do think it applies in this sense that it keeps their head up because of what happened last year and mitigates the potential let down that otherwise would be in effect. If LSU was playing somebody like Arkansas or aTm or something then yes I would worry about the let down. Being that it is Miss St in light of what happened last year I throw let down out the window.

Let's put revenge aside. Because while if I had to pick this game I would pick LSU; there are reasons that Miss St can win this game, on the field reasons, not mental or distracted reasons hurting LSU. What happened to LSU's run D at Florida is concerning. Burrow is completing just 52%. LSU allows more sacks and TFLs than one would like. Miss St has very good D in all phases and should present LSU some problems. Miss St doesn't allow many TFLs or sacks (which they throw a low %, but still, their OL holds up well and LSU isn't great at getting pressure).

So at the end of the day, if you are saying Miss State can win this game, I would say yes they could and we can leave it on a positive note instead of arguing about the details on how or why.
 
And ofc Miss State run d isn‘t invincible (Kentucky) and LSU has two great backs. Miss State can‘t pass well so being one-dimensonal is worrisome. Good arguments can be made for both sides, it‘ll be interesting for sure
 
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