SEC Week 8 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Pretty entertaining week 7, week 8 doesn't look great on the surface, but with all 14 teams playing conference games, could definitely be some drama

Florida @ SCAR

AU @ Ark

LSU @ Miss St

Mizzou @ Vandy

UK @ UGA

aTm @ Ole Miss

Tenn @ Alabama

MY PR lines:

Florida -8

AU -16.5

LSU -17.5

Mizzou -17.5

UGA -27

aTm -3

Alabama -38.5
 
Some interesting situational aspects this week:

SC coming off huge upset, UF off 2 huge national games, with bye then cocktail party

AU off loss then bye, with LSU on deck

LSU off huge win, AU on deck with Alabama looming after bye

UGA off devastating loss, UF next game

Can't really say that Alabama is already looking past teams to LSU, especially with Tenn in town, but gotta think the players and coaches saw what happened last weekend

Multiple DD road faves, you know at least 1 or 2 are going to be way closer than it should
 
Alabama TT overs or Tennessee TT overs? Alabama defense and with potential of big lead, think Tennessee TT is better play.
 
I think you've gotta hold your nose and autobet Miss State here. Just a horrific spot for LSU. No way those kids aren't looking past Miss State to Auburn and Alabama after very emotional Florida game last week. Seeing Miss State just lose to freaking Tennessee by double digits and scoring only 10 points is only going to put LSU to sleep even more.
 
Alabama in a spot where you could autobet the Tenny TT Under or game under in the past with Bama giving up 28 last week and not finishing the game well. But I don't know, I watched the post game interview and Saban acknowledged they didn't finish the game on D but he didn't seem that upset about. Almost like he's acknowledged the D is young as hell and not that good and he's going to have to just outscore teams.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
I think you've gotta hold your nose and autobet Miss State here. Just a horrific spot for LSU. No way those kids aren't looking past Miss State to Auburn and Alabama after very emotional Florida game last week. Seeing Miss State just lose to freaking Tennessee by double digits and scoring only 10 points is only going to put LSU to sleep even more.
Click to expand...

For me it's Miss St or nothing, but probably nothing. LSU could sleepwalk and score 30+.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Alabama in a spot where you could autobet the Tenny TT Under or game under in the past with Bama giving up 28 last week and not finishing the game well. But I don't know, I watched the post game interview and Saban acknowledged they didn't finish the game on D but he didn't seem that upset about. Almost like he's acknowledged the D is young as hell and not that good and he's going to have to just outscore teams.
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Of note, it's an 8 PM local time kickoff, 9PM on the body clocks of the Tenn players. I've been to one of these late kicks, and by late 3rd quarter, I think everyone just wants to go home. Could see a really lethargic 2nd half from both teams, especially if there's a big halftime lead. Also, Devonta Smith is being disciplined for throwing a punch late last game, I'd expect a half game suspension or something. But probably the one position on Alabama where the effects will be minimal from losing a starter

I mentioned it in the WDWL thread, but there were some legit positives to take away from the defense's performance against aTm. Pass rush was much better, tackling was generally better, and they got off the field on 3rd down much better, outside of the opening drive. Still way too many penalties, but hopefully experience will help that. Not saying this team will morph into a dominant defense this season, but the pieces are there to be able to get enough stops against anyone to let our O do it's thing.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Alabama in a spot where you could autobet the Tenny TT Under or game under in the past with Bama giving up 28 last week and not finishing the game well. But I don't know, I watched the post game interview and Saban acknowledged they didn't finish the game on D but he didn't seem that upset about. Almost like he's acknowledged the D is young as hell and not that good and he's going to have to just outscore teams.
Click to expand...
Bama gives up points...but moreso late points just about every game.
 
MSU is a good tune up game for LSU. We all know AU runs the zone read stuff. Not as much window dressing, but LSU could definitely work on their D in this game. LSU 1H & 1H TT for me.

Although improved, Arky still isn't there. AU 1H should provide some value. Especially if people are playing the look ahead card. With 1 loss, the Tiger War Eagles cant afford to take this lightly.

Is UGA mad, or do they continue to play to their opponents level. Can they cover, yes. Will they? IDK...stay away for me.

A&M/OM should be fun to watch. I think points will be a plenty.

Mizzou should destroy Vandy. Thinking they hang half a hundy on the Dores.

UF is off the board for me, but I would imagine this would warrant an under play.

AL will be a stay away. Maybe 1H TT if not too much. They tend to mess up a FG or allow a late score at the end of half a to bite me.
 
I’d be worried to be any overs in the Bama/UT game this weekend. Get the feeling that Pruitt May try to play keep away and bleed the clock as much as possible. Doesn’t mean it can’t still go over as Bama can surely have quick strikes, but just the feeling I get.
 
Ryno14 said:
I’d be worried to be any overs in the Bama/UT game this weekend. Get the feeling that Pruitt May try to play keep away and bleed the clock as much as possible. Doesn’t mean it can’t still go over as Bama can surely have quick strikes, but just the feeling I get.
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Last week.....I had Alabama 1quarter parlay with the over.......also have 1 half TT over......thought I lost the bet when AM went on long as 1st drive.....got lucky....

Will Tennessee play faster if they down big?
 
Ryno14 said:
I’d be worried to be any overs in the Bama/UT game this weekend. Get the feeling that Pruitt May try to play keep away and bleed the clock as much as possible. Doesn’t mean it can’t still go over as Bama can surely have quick strikes, but just the feeling I get.
Click to expand...

I would assume that is the game plan as well, to own TOP and play defense on offense and trying to limit the touches Bama gets on O, where by limiting the damage the Tide can inflict on the scoreboard. That is exactly what UT did last week once Maurer went out (injury and 2 INTs) and Guarantano came in. Miss St doesn't even possesss a dangerous O and Tenn played ultra conservative for the last 2.5 quarters. Tennessee had 19-11 TOP in the 2nd H last week and looked to purposefully be playing keep-away. Hard to know what their gameplan will be this week, but I would suspect a D minded coach that has already shown his willingness to do that will see it as the gameplan again this week.

Georgia scored on 5 of their 6 first half possessions vs Vols. Alabama more lethal. Pruitt knows they can't outscore Bama. But best laid plays go out the window once the game starts. To number2's point? If Vols find themselves down 3 scores in the 2nd qrt, what will the Vols do then?
 
Playing without Greenard and Zuniga for much of the LSU game certainly hurt Gators. They are the top 2 sackers and top 2 TFL guys for Florida. Status uncertain for this week.

No. 9 Florida could be without Greenard, Zuniga at South Carolina
Muschamp: QB Hilinski has a knee sprain, should play

By Associated Press
Posted: 5:11 PM, October 14, 2019 Updated: 5:11 PM, October 14, 2019

www.news4jax.com

No. 9 Florida could be without Greenard, Zuniga at South Carolina

No. 9 Florida could be without its top two pass-rushers at South Carolina on Saturday.
www.news4jax.com www.news4jax.com
Click to expand...
 
number2 said:
Last week.....I had Alabama 1quarter parlay with the over.......also have 1 half TT over......thought I lost the bet when AM went on long as 1st drive.....got lucky....

Will Tennessee play faster if they down big?
Click to expand...

I doubt it. I think Tennessee is OK just to get out this game healthy. They know they need to finish strong and that a bowl game would be huge for the rebuild.
 
gps_3 said:
I think there are a few things pointing to an under play, but maybe wait until live or take the 2H under
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Also a tropical depression expected to make landfall on the northern gulf coast Saturday, maybe some rain bands arriving late in this one?
 
Ryno14 said:
I’d be worried to be any overs in the Bama/UT game this weekend. Get the feeling that Pruitt May try to play keep away and bleed the clock as much as possible. Doesn’t mean it can’t still go over as Bama can surely have quick strikes, but just the feeling I get.
Click to expand...
Agree . This feels more like the duke game plan for bama that lead to a slow moving first half with bama content to work on their run game and wear opponent down slowly and opponent happy to run the ball for a few first downs and punt rather than turn it over or go with high risk offense
 
s--k said:
Playing without Greenard and Zuniga for much of the LSU game certainly hurt Gators. They are the top 2 sackers and top 2 TFL guys for Florida. Status uncertain for this week.
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Gamecocks also have two offensive linemen listed as 'questionable' for the game. Not sure how important they are though.

And one question to raise is: scheme or player, what's more important? Because Grantham is certainly known for his creativity in causing havoc. But that's not to deny that G and Z are important figures
 
M.O.T said:
Also a tropical depression expected to make landfall on the northern gulf coast Saturday, maybe some rain bands arriving late in this one?
Click to expand...

Latest forecast says no rain during the game
 
Cortezthekiller said:
Agree . This feels more like the duke game plan for bama that lead to a slow moving first half with bama content to work on their run game and wear opponent down slowly and opponent happy to run the ball for a few first downs and punt rather than turn it over or go with high risk offense
Click to expand...

I wouldn't count on Alabama trying to slow the game down early. The coaches know who they are as a team, and I expect the 1H to look like most of the other 1H we've seen this season, at least from a gameplan perspective. Execution could always be off, but I'd plan on Alabama wanting to establish Tua from the getgo, get a lead, then lean on running game in the 2H to burn clock. Against aTm, Najee Harris had 3 carries in 1Q, 3 in 2Q, 6 in 3Q and 8 in 4Q. Depending on how the defense does will determine if it's Najee getting those late carries or not, but I would expect that to be the ideal for the Alabama coaches.
 
I prefer the narrative this season compared to last year. All we need now is for Cowherd to say the dynasty is dead and the game has passed Saban by, and I can go ahead and book my trip to the playoffs
 
gps_3 said:
I prefer the narrative this season compared to last year. All we need now is for Cowherd to say the dynasty is dead and the game has passed Saban by, and I can go ahead and book my trip to the playoffs
Click to expand...
That is a nice role to be in.

Also...

Media seems to be starting to name their Heisman winner....Joey....

Tua is the most deserving right now and is owed one.
 
The allure of the offensive dynamic change will be hard to beat if he keeps rolling. That’s allllllll they will talk about.

Not fair to Tua, but that’ll be the narrative
 
twinkie13 said:
The allure of the offensive dynamic change will be hard to beat if he keeps rolling. That’s allllllll they will talk about.

Not fair to Tua, but that’ll be the narrative
Click to expand...

Same thing as last year with Tua. All it takes is one bad game. Burrow’s entire Heisman candidacy rests on how he does against Alabama. He plays well in a win, he will be tough to beat
 
B.A.R. said:
That is a nice role to be in.

Also...

Media seems to be starting to name their Heisman winner....Joey....

Tua is the most deserving right now and is owed one.
Click to expand...

Nick has to be pretty happy with the media right now: defense isn’t good, all Tua does is throw slants, can’t run ball. Lot less of the “rat poison” than usual
 
Hmmmmm.......Tennessee TT at 13.5 only.....,..if Tennessee can muster some points in first 3 quarters, then 1 td in fourth against backups is doable I think.....
 
M.W. said:
There are a lot of Alabama fans who think the same thing.
Click to expand...

When Moses got hurt, pretty much everyone agreed that there would be growing pains with the young guys, and that we’d have to rely on our offense to win this season. Now that it’s happening, people are freaking out. I don’t think any of the team’s goals are out of reach, just might have to win games 49-45 instead of 24-6. And it’s not like our top rated defenses of years past slowed down Clemson, outside of 2017
 
SEC games I’m betting:

AU/Ark under
Florida ATS
Ole Miss ATS
Mizzou ATS
Miss St TT over
 
gps_3 said:
When Moses got hurt, pretty much everyone agreed that there would be growing pains with the young guys, and that we’d have to rely on our offense to win this season. Now that it’s happening, people are freaking out. I don’t think any of the team’s goals are out of reach, just might have to win games 49-45 instead of 24-6. And it’s not like our top rated defenses of years past slowed down Clemson, outside of 2017
Click to expand...
Right. You're absolutely in the mix at least and possibly still the favorite to win it all.
 
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