SEC Week 6 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Impressive menu of SEC games this week. Lines are what's listed on ESPN, will adjust after my local releases later today

Alabama -6'/51 @ Ole Miss

Florida +2'/53' @ Tennessee

aTm +2'/69 @ Miss St

Vanderbilt +33'/55 @ UGA

LSU +7'/55 @ Auburn

S. Carolina -5/56 @ Kentucky

BYE: Arkansas

Discuss....
 
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Very interested to see which way that Arky game takes ATM. Will they be exhausted or will they be primed? Honestly, don't know.

I like the Vols in this spot, but I didn't expect so many others to agree.

Piss better be much better than they have been so far, if they want to compete. But the atmosphere should help.
 
Lookahead/trap games:

Only game I see counting here is SC @ UK. SC has a bye next week after playing 6 weeks in a row, 5 against SEC teams. If they had held on to beat Mizzou, I would consider this game more, but after the loss, I think some of the line value was lost. But, if there was ever a chance for UK to beat an SEC team not named Vanderbilt, this would be the one, so I still expect a better effort from UK than SC, but I would rather have had double digits on the line

After looking at the schedules again, you can make an argument for a lookahead for UGA. After Vandy go to Mizzou and then go to Arkansas. But, put money on Vandy at your own risk. Even if Gurley sits out the whole game, UGA can win 35-0 or worse.
 
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Some thoughts from last week's games:

The aTm-Ark game has been discussed ad nauseum, so I won't rehash everything, but I think the main takeaway is that while improved, Ark isn't ready to win against a good to great team yet. And I'm not sure aTm is a great team. They are good and can beat a lot of teams, but they probably lose 2 of the next 3. Maybe all 3.

UGA-UT: Like Ark and UK, UT is getting better. All that youth on both lines will hurt them this season, but will be invaluable next year and beyond. Hurd is a stud. If UGA didn't have Gurley, they are probably 1-3. You can say that about the best player on a lot of teams, but UGA hasn't shown me anything outside of #3. I think they lose at least once more

Something is wrong with AU's offense. They have some nice stats, but they have been out of sync all season it appears. Which is concerning given all that was made of Gus finally having a 2nd year QB. AU traditionally does not play as well when the expectations are great, and that could be part of it. Also, I think we are realizing how good Greg Robinson, Tre Mason, and Jay Prosch were in that offense. I've seen where a lot of AU fans want Jeremy Johnson to be the full time QB, and I agree that if they want to pass more, JJ gives them a much better chance as a passer than Marshall, but I can't believe that Gus will make the change outside of injury or suspension. I also think Gus is trying to prove how smart he is by calling a bunch of plays that NM is ill-suited to run. Despite what the AU faithful and the Gus apologists will tell you, this is not a league where you just out-scheme everyone. You have to have the players. Last year they did, as mentioned. Not so sure they are utilizing their talent right now

Who knows what to make of Mizzou and SC? I don't. Missouri looked lost on offense for most of the game. SC may just be running out of gas from a tough slate of games so far. I have to imagine they are ready for the bye week after this week. Mizzou is only unbeaten team in conference in the East.

Ole Miss predictably slept through the Memphis game, yet moosed all of us Memphis backers. Thank God it was for a push and not a loss. Bo Wallace continues to be unimpressive, and he's no better than the 5th or 6th best QB in the conference. If he turns it over against Alabama, it will be ugly. Their defense looks to be awesome though. Lot of talent playing well
 
gps_3 said:
Some thoughts from last week's games:

The aTm-Ark game has been discussed ad nauseum, so I won't rehash everything, but I think the main takeaway is that while improved, Ark isn't ready to win against a good to great team yet. And I'm not sure aTm is a great team. They are good and can beat a lot of teams, but they probably lose 2 of the next 3. Maybe all 3.

UGA-UT: Like Ark and UK, UT is getting better. All that youth on both lines will hurt them this season, but will be invaluable next year and beyond. Hurd is a stud. If UGA didn't have Gurley, they are probably 1-3. You can say that about the best player on a lot of teams, but UGA hasn't shown me anything outside of #3. I think they lose at least once more

Something is wrong with AU's offense. They have some nice stats, but they have been out of sync all season it appears. Which is concerning given all that was made of Gus finally having a 2nd year QB. AU traditionally does not play as well when the expectations are great, and that could be part of it. Also, I think we are realizing how good Greg Robinson, Tre Mason, and Jay Prosch were in that offense. I've seen where a lot of AU fans want Jeremy Johnson to be the full time QB, and I agree that if they want to pass more, JJ gives them a much better chance as a passer than Marshall, but I can't believe that Gus will make the change outside of injury or suspension. I also think Gus is trying to prove how smart he is by calling a bunch of plays that NM is ill-suited to run. Despite what the AU faithful and the Gus apologists will tell you, this is not a league where you just out-scheme everyone. You have to have the players. Last year they did, as mentioned. Not so sure they are utilizing their talent right now

Who knows what to make of Mizzou and SC? I don't. Missouri looked lost on offense for most of the game. SC may just be running out of gas from a tough slate of games so far. I have to imagine they are ready for the bye week after this week. Mizzou is only unbeaten team in conference in the East.

Ole Miss predictably slept through the Memphis game, yet moosed all of us Memphis backers. Thank God it was for a push and not a loss. Bo Wallace continues to be unimpressive, and he's no better than the 5th or 6th best QB in the conference. If he turns it over against Alabama, it will be ugly. Their defense looks to be awesome though. Lot of talent playing well
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one thing I hate about Bo wallace is that he drops back and he's not very active sitting in the pocket..He seems too nonchalant...robotic when he surveys the field in front of him and he's just standing still , but he's so slow that if the Bama line can get any pressure, we will see strip sacks IMO
 
I was impressed with #4 for Arky. Fast and willing to deliver a hit. Not that the Ag corners are going to scare anyone.
#76 for Arky was just a big dumb lineman. Size isn't everything. Stupid penalties.
The Cowboys will probably draft him.
 
Off the cuff, I think the wrong team is favored in both Knoxville and Starkville. It is a must win game for Muschamp and UT hasn't won against UF in 10 years, but after the last game each has played, how can you feel good about UF? I guess bc they are off a bye. The talent levels are more equal than you would think, and Driskell is a mess. Not that UT is a world beater, and is coming off an emotional, tough game, but this is one they have wanted for a long time.

In Starkville, I get that MSU is coming off it's biggest win in a decade, but they've had the bye to let it soak in. If this game had been last week, I'd be all over the Ags. But aTm had a dogfight last week, and this week they get probably the most dynamic QB in the league. Not a great spot for Aggie.

LSU gives AU's offense fits. Based on this season, I'm not even sure what AU is trying to do on offense. KSt and La Tech both had success defending, and I'm not sure those teams combined have one defensive player as talented as anyone on LSU. I think 8 is way too many. May continue my system of fading AU 1H. It is a night game at Jordan-Hare, and the crowd will be electric, so may lay off the 1H bet. LSU has beaten AU 6 of the last 7

I lean UK against SC. SC looks tired. They will be looking at that bye next week. UK just won their first SEC game in 3 years. They are as confident as they'll ever be and I think they think they can win. Will be a dogfight IMO

As mentioned above, even in a lookahead, UGA's backups can cover the 33 against Vandy. Vanderbilt's offense is atrocious. Only way they score is ST/DEF, and I expect Michel and Chubb to get plenty of yards while Gurley cheers them on. UGA also needs to get some work in on the passing game, so could see a big game for Mason

Alabama-Ole Miss: Cody Prewitt (Ole Miss safety) doesn't think Alabama is as good as they have been. He's probably right, but Bo Wallace is as good as he's been the last two years. I like Ole Miss' defense, but I don't see the offense having much success. This game reminds me of the 2009 game. It will be ugly at times. Alabama won that one 22-3. I'm thinking something like 24-12 this year. But if Bo turns it over 3 times in the 1H, it might be more like 41-12
 
gps_3 said:
Something is wrong with AU's offense. They have some nice stats, but they have been out of sync all season it appears. Which is concerning given all that was made of Gus finally having a 2nd year QB. AU traditionally does not play as well when the expectations are great, and that could be part of it. Also, I think we are realizing how good Greg Robinson, Tre Mason, and Jay Prosch were in that offense. I've seen where a lot of AU fans want Jeremy Johnson to be the full time QB, and I agree that if they want to pass more, JJ gives them a much better chance as a passer than Marshall, but I can't believe that Gus will make the change outside of injury or suspension. I also think Gus is trying to prove how smart he is by calling a bunch of plays that NM is ill-suited to run. Despite what the AU faithful and the Gus apologists will tell you, this is not a league where you just out-scheme everyone. You have to have the players. Last year they did, as mentioned. Not so sure they are utilizing their talent right now
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This is a copy and paste from the "What have we learned" thread:

Last season Auburn could run power left with Tre Mason running behind Greg Robinson and Jay Prosch leading the way, and no one was able to consistently stop it. This season all three pieces to Malzahn's bread and butter play are gone. That has seriously diminished the effectiveness of their power running attack as we have seen the last two weeks. That is forcing Marshall to throw a lot more, and Auburn has always struggled when Marshall has been forced to throw.

Last season Auburn did not have a great overall defense, but they did have a great defensive line that got a tremendous amount of push. They are still talented along the defensive line, but the losses of defensive ends Dee Ford and Carl Lawson has definitely degraded their effectiveness when compared to last season.

I, like many people, think LSU will give Auburn all they can handle this Saturday. That's not to say I don't have concerns about my LSU wager because I most certainly do. Starting true freshman QB Keith Jennings in a hostile SEC venue is chief among them. My second main concern is how undisciplined LSU's defense has played thus far. Undisciplined play on the defensive side of the ball is not a formula for success when facing a Gus Malzahn coached offense.

To your point about Malzahn out-scheming everyone, I would add that after having an offseason to study Malzahn's offense, look for SEC defensive coordinators to have more success in slowing down it down this season. I don't think we'll see quite the gaudy numbers against SEC defenses that we saw last season.
 
Not sure if it was mentioned, but Brandon Harris will start for LSU. I don't know if he's ready for this, or for the grind that the rest of the schedule will be, but he is going to be a special player at some point. Hopefully it is sooner than later, and the team at least seems to respond to him.
 
M.O.T said:
Not sure if it was mentioned, but Brandon Harris will start for LSU. I don't know if he's ready for this, or for the grind that the rest of the schedule will be, but he is going to be a special player at some point. Hopefully it is sooner than later, and the team at least seems to respond to him.
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there was no choice
 
Thanks for the kind words fellas. Funny, I have less time during the week, but on Saturdays I pretty much watch football from gameday until bed time, with little to no booze. I'd say things are a little clearer on Sunday and Monday when I start looking at the next week's games.

Between em this week and next, I think we'll start to get a clearer picture of who the better teams are. Should be a great 2 weeks
 
I only had 5 beers last Saturday. I did enjoy the games more and the wifey was very proud of me which meant I got to go to a bar and watch football on Sunday while she went to the aquarium. She's out of town this weekend though
 
There was more to the answer, but it started like this. Coach has his perspective on the right track.

With all the youth on the team, how does a win like that in the way you got it help for the long-term development?
“Youth or not, a win like that becomes important around here. When you play in the SEC and you win a game in the SEC, whether you’re young or old, a win is a win.

 
Silkydiamonds said:
Just want to put out there Jacob Coker is 1 hit away from starting, right when conf play behind in earnest
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Especially since Blake has a dinged up shoulder. Everything I've heard says he's fine, but I'm guessing he can't take another shot to the shoulder anytime soon.
 
Updated the lines up top and included totals. I kind of like the over in Auburn. LSU's offense seems to run smoother with Harris at QB, and I think even with their sluggish (by their standards) start, AU will be able to score some. I see this as a one score game, and am considering sprinkling a little bit on LSU ML.

I like the under in Oxford. If the game is close, it will be something like 24-20. If it's a blowout, and I can only see an Alabama easy win, it will be something like 31-10.

I think at worst, betting UT and Miss St gives you a split.

Will likely take UGA 1H. Can see it being similar to their game against Troy. Revenge game from last year too, though I imagine it's hard for the Dawgs to get fired up for Vandy with two big road games on deck

Want to take UK, but was really wanting a TD. Maybe the under is worth a look

Been reading and watching a lot on the Alabama-Ole Miss game, and the more I hear these analysts' reasons for an Ole Miss victory, the better I feel about an Alabama win. A lot of it is reaching for reasons, and I feel that when you have to reach to find reasons to support your analysis, you're likely in trouble. Joe Schad said on CFL that Bo Wallace has more surrounding talent than Blake Sims. Uh, what? And if I hear one more analyst say that Alabama struggles with offenses like Ole Miss', I'll probably throw something. Alabama has played that exact offense twice. The combined yield for Ole Miss is: 413 total yards, 297 passing, 126 rushing, 5 turnovers, and 14 total points, including a shutout last season. So no, Alabama doesn't struggle with the Ole Miss offense historically. With they way this game has been hyped, I think the Alabama team will be more comfortable in the big game atmosphere than Ole Miss. The valid points for an Ole Miss win are: great defensive line play, Blake Sims' first road start, questions surrounding Sims' shoulder, and the disparity between Alabama's giveaways and takeaways. It will be really difficult for Alabama to win if they lose the turnover margin. It will be impossible for Ole Miss to win if they give it away more than they take it away. I seriously doubt crowd noise will be a factor. Oxford has a lot of fine gameday traditions and attractions, but crowd affecting the other team ain't one. Outside of the players, I think the coaching matchup strongly favors Alabama, and I like the fact we are off a bye. I think Ole Miss will make Alabama earn their yards in the first half, but I believe that they have too many weapons (despite Joe Schad's opinion) and Alabama will control the 2H to a relatively decided victory. I'm calling it Alabama 30, Ole Miss 13
 
All I know is .... we get to see the Coeds at Ole Miss who are second to none... I can't wait for the cameraman to find his favorite ....

I will just laugh if Bama gets beat by Bo Wallace. I've noticed a new trend with sports betting now .... people look for any reason they can ( supporting your thoughts about the analysts reaching ) to bet a home underdog of any type of quality ( which ole miss is ). They feel "sharp" .... We throw that word around a lot ... I do it too .. but all it means is someone who profits fairly consistently. I think a lot of people think sharp plays are plays on underdogs against good teams sometimes .. I swear, that I actually get that feeling. Or that Square plays are plays on a favorite that everyone and their grandma knows is a good team. Not sure how I got off on that tangent ...

But I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't think Ole Miss can be a great play at these numbers we are seeing. Granted I am not on Bama either and I am also wrong an awful lot ... but I just cant see myself rushing to the window to back ole miss when in the back of my head I really don't see them ever winning that game by more than a score and I think they have to get fortunate for that to happen. I have the OleMiss Regular Season Wins over ... I think they are improved .... They beat Memphis, Louisiana and Vandy ..... their best win was opening night against Boise State .... that is Air Force's best win this year too. I just think it is way too speculative for people to be jumping onto Ole Miss as much as I am seeing at this number.
 
clowncar said:
All I know is .... we get to see the Coeds at Ole Miss who are second to none... I can't wait for the cameraman to find his favorite ....

I will just laugh if Bama gets beat by Bo Wallace. I've noticed a new trend with sports betting now .... people look for any reason they can ( supporting your thoughts about the analysts reaching ) to bet a home underdog of any type of quality ( which ole miss is ). They feel "sharp" .... We throw that word around a lot ... I do it too .. but all it means is someone who profits fairly consistently. I think a lot of people think sharp plays are plays on underdogs against good teams sometimes .. I swear, that I actually get that feeling. Or that Square plays are plays on a favorite that everyone and their grandma knows is a good team. Not sure how I got off on that tangent ...

But I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't think Ole Miss can be a great play at these numbers we are seeing. Granted I am not on Bama either and I am also wrong an awful lot ... but I just cant see myself rushing to the window to back ole miss when in the back of my head I really don't see them ever winning that game by more than a score and I think they have to get fortunate for that to happen. I have the OleMiss Regular Season Wins over ... I think they are improved .... They beat Memphis, Louisiana and Vandy ..... their best win was opening night against Boise State .... that is Air Force's best win this year too. I just think it is way too speculative for people to be jumping onto Ole Miss as much as I am seeing at this number.
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I agree about your point on the betting public trying to be "sharp." The internet has basically muddied the waters of what separates sharp from square. In this game, I think part of it is Alabama fatigue, and wanting to be the guy who predicted the upset and the start of the fall of the dynasty. Ole Miss is improved, but the only reason they are a top 11 team right now is because of the division and conference they play in. If they win, then I guess they were rated appropriately, but there is no evidence that they are a top 20 team right now, much less a top 10
 
I spent an entire season saying Auburn sucks too. Noles proved me right? ... :embarassed:
 
I wouldn't bet Ole Miss.
Can they win with a great effort, a la Ags @ Bama in '12? sure.
I just need Bama to be tired out in 3 weeks.
 
pressitup said:
I wouldn't bet Ole Miss.
Can they win with a great effort, a la Ags @ Bama in '12? sure.
I just need Bama to be tired out in 3 weeks.
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I hear ya but it's two different things to win at Bama and at home.. I still feel like ole miss is going to have to prove to me that the hype is real, I can't get that Bo Wallace first half vs Boise out of my head..
 
I took bama and scarolina at -4 and -3 respectively ... paid a little extra juice on both. Steam for ole miss and Kentucky which put the games in range. Prove it.
 
pressitup said:
I wouldn't bet Ole Miss.
Can they win with a great effort, a la Ags @ Bama in '12? sure.
I just need Bama to be tired out in 3 weeks.
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you better worry about beating the team in the West you all cannot seem to beat my man:shake:
 
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