SEC Week 5 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Will use the actual week # for FBS as a whole instead of just the SEC from now on. Will post some thoughts on the games from yesterday later, but felt great having these teams playing again. Can't wait for it to be a full slate nationwide next month.

Week 5 with my PR - I noted last week I'm not adjusting for opt-outs and covid stuff yet, I'm also not adjusting HFA at all. May look into it if it seems to be an issue in the coming weeks.

SCAR @ UF (-20)
Mizzou @ Tenn (-11)
aTm @ Alabama (-19)
Ole Miss @ UK (-7.5)
AU @ UGA (-11)
LSU @ Vandy (+21)
Ark @ Miss St (-18.5)
 
Liking Alabama 1st half , 1st quarter , 1h over , 1h TT over , and 1st quarter over......
 
If you’re thinking about making a play on Auburn you better pray that Seth Williams doesn’t get hurt. Auburn’s run game was not impressive and while their D played the bend but don’t break to a T, they didn’t look great to me. Not surprising considering the losses on that side of the ball. Haven’t watched the GA game yet so can’t comment on them. The standard don’t put too much emphasis on one game applies as all teams grow.
 
Echoing thoughts above, I don't want to over-react to any one game, especially in a season as unique as this one. The only games I watched were UK-AU, LSU-MSU, and Alabama-Mizzou, and I caught the end of SC-UT.

I thought UK and AU were pretty evenly matched, but the turnovers for UK were the difference. The non-TD right before half was atrocious, but I've come to expect that kind of thing in AU.

Everything that people feared could be true about LSU this season was on display against Miss St. The offense looked bad in the 1H and the personnel losses were glaring. They found their footing offensively a bit in the 2H, but the defense was on it's heels all game. I'm sure having Stingley back will stabilize things on the back end, but there are legit reasons for LSU to be concerned.

The Alabama game played out about like I expected, though the lack of a running game to salt away the game in the 2H was a bit disappointing. Trey Sanders looked very tentative, which maybe is to be expected since it's been 2 years since he last played. You could see both the talent with Bryce Young and also why he isn't really a threat to take snaps from Mac Jones yet. Speaking of Jones, he looked really good and made some big time throws. He'll never be Tua, but he's probably as good or better at QB than McCarron was.

I didn't watch a snap, but what was going on with aTm? It sounds like Florida looked great on offense, but Ole Miss put up 600+ yards. That's a bit of a red flag to me, but again, it's just week one.
 
I can't remember if this was posted here or not, but I think it's relevant for capping LSU and State going forward:

www.pff.com

Galina: Mike Leach and Mississippi State have brought the Air Raid back with a vengeance to the SEC

Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello racked up a record 623 yards through the air in a 44-34 win over LSU in Week 4 of the 2020 college football season.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

Long story short: you have to play zone or drop a defender down to stop the mesh concept. Pelini and Orgeron refused to do so.
 
Grovehard said:
I can't remember if this was posted here or not, but I think it's relevant for capping LSU and State going forward:

www.pff.com

Galina: Mike Leach and Mississippi State have brought the Air Raid back with a vengeance to the SEC

Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello racked up a record 623 yards through the air in a 44-34 win over LSU in Week 4 of the 2020 college football season.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

Long story short: you have to play zone or drop a defender down to stop the mesh concept. Pelini and Orgeron refused to do so.
Click to expand...
Was ridiculous. Glaringly so
 
twinkie13 said:
Anyone actually wanna let TAMU get bet up?

Haven’t seen anyone on em
Click to expand...
On the fence. Hoping Bama goes up three scores by half. Not taking Bama for game as of yet. But will likely back the backdoor Aggies in the 2nd half if I’m getting +7.5 for a game line of 28.5 to 35.5. I do have a small thought they show up for a quarter or so early and scare those of us on the first half. I laid -8.5 and I’m not too confident for some reason. 38-17 seems like a likely final score.
 
Would love to see Vandy get to 23-24. Hoping the total keeps climbing too and will be on the Under/Vandy+ the points. Their DL to our OL matchup is concerning IMO. Not sure if they’ll wear down due to depth but laying 20+ with the Tigers after last week is out of the question.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Would love to see Vandy get to 23-24. Hoping the total keeps climbing too and will be on the Under/Vandy+ the points. Their DL to our OL matchup is concerning IMO. Not sure if they’ll wear down due to depth but laying 20+ with the Tigers after last week is out of the question.
Click to expand...

I certainly get that, but this is easily the biggest line switch after Week 1. I mean what would this line have been last week? At least -31 yeah?
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Would love to see Vandy get to 23-24. Hoping the total keeps climbing too and will be on the Under/Vandy+ the points. Their DL to our OL matchup is concerning IMO. Not sure if they’ll wear down due to depth but laying 20+ with the Tigers after last week is out of the question.
Click to expand...
It would be hard to pass up at 24. Better games on the board for sure
 
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