SEC Week 5 Discussion

[gps_3]

SEC Games 9/27. Lines are from my local at time of posting:

Tenn (+17) @ UGA
Vandy (+17) @ UK
Arkansas (+9') @ aTm (Arlington)
AU (-32') vs La Tech
Missouri (+6) @ SC
Ole Miss (-18') vs Memphis
LSU (-43) vs New Mexico State


Discuss....

 

[gps_3]

Potential lookahead, traps, etc:

AU - it is HC, but just played KSt on road, play LSU, @ MSU next two

Ole Miss - play Alabama next week. Though looking at Steele, they have covered the game before Alabama the last 5 seasons, but never as big as a favorite as this year

aTm - not really a fit here, as Arkansas is apparently better than originally thought, but this starts a 4 week run for the Aggies of Ark, @MSU, Ole Miss, @Alabama. How much will be left in the tank by the time they travel to Tuscaloosa?

UK - worth noting that after Vandy, UK plays SC, ULM, @LSU, MSU, @Mizzou, UGA, @UT without a bye. As much of a must win as ever

 

[twinkie13]

tough card

how can LSU lay this? I know NOTHING of New Mex st tho

 

[dickydunn]

Potential lookahead, traps, etc:


UK - worth noting that after Vandy, UK plays SC, ULM, @LSU, MSU, @Mizzou, UGA, @UT without a bye. As much of a must win as ever

bye came at a perfect time after the florida game. stoops has been talking about that first sec win. i don't see this as a look ahead especially when sc struggled with vandy, regardless of how bizarre the game was

 

[gps_3]

bye came at a perfect time after the florida game. stoops has been talking about that first sec win. i don't see this as a look ahead especially when sc struggled with vandy, regardless of how bizarre the game was

Yeah this wasn't so much a look ahead as it is a winnable/must-win game starting out a rough stretch. Uk hasn't won an SEC game since '11, so I don't see how they don't dominate this game.

 

[gps_3]

Also maybe of note, SC has played 4 straight tough games, and Mizzou coming into town off an embarrassing loss and in a revenge situation. But more of note IMO, is next week's game for SC @ UK. Last game of a tough stretch before a bye. Looks to be a good spot for the Cats

 

[NYGiants25]

Ole Miss - play Alabama next week. Though looking at Steele, they have covered the game before Alabama the last 5 seasons, but never as big as a favorite as this year

You'd have to think at the top of their objectives list for this game ... get ahead quick, straight forward playbook/nothing fancy, and get some reps for the backups ???

Sounds like the formula for any team if they can pull it off, haha.

I don't think they would have problems covering this number, could be some backdoor business tho ... looks like line has dropped also -18.5

 

[gps_3]

Ole Miss' playbook is already about as simple as it gets. Like AU, they run very few formations/play, they just have several options per play. Memphis appears to have trouble defending the pass, and that is Ole Miss' strength, so unless Hugh Freeze goes all Hugh Freeze with the playcalling, you'd think Ole Miss would cruise

 

[twinkie13]

did UK and Vandy open at 10.5?

 

[gps_3]

did UK and Vandy open at 10.5?

Dunno. I used the line posted on ESPN this morning. No idea how accurate they are, my local hadn't posted lines when I started thread this am. I don't track openers like many on this board do

 

[gps_3]

Been watching some highlights and games from the weekend, first Alabama:

It was certainly a sloppy game, but the two things that anti-Alabama folks wanted everyone to believe are proving to be untrue: Lane Kiffin is doing a really really good job, and Blake Sims may be really good. And homer aside, Amari Cooper is special. Reminds me a lot of AJ Green. Certainly best Alabama WR of my lifetime

MSU had a great win. A great one. But they match up great against LSU. I believe they struggle against the better passing teams in the league, but certainly Mullen's best squad. I think they lose to aTm, but beat AU.

The SEC West is brutal. If anyone makes it our 12-0, they are the nation's best team. Period.

AU needs to get their act together. That vaunted offense is 7th in the SEC. Marshall looks slower this season. Not sure if he's hurt, or if the team is starting to feel the weight of expectations. They already have the toughest road in the league, and one of the hardest schedules of a national contender I've seen, so they need to get better in a hurry, or else they can punch their ticket to Tampa

Speaking of Tampa, LSU might as well book their trip. So much talent, but so inexperienced. If Les sticks around, they will be the sickness in 2016

Muschamp has to be gone. Alabama had 4 TOs, a missed FG, and a shanked punt, but UF still got their doors blown off. No more excuses Will. Time to move on

Vandy stil blows, and S. Carolina will still play to their competition. Have to believe SC is getting tired. They are on the fade list

WTF was that Mizzou? I finally jump on board, and that's what you give me? Shit. Now watch them run the table in the East

Interested in that Arky aTm game. Looks like Ark might have the run game to keep the self-nicknamer on the sidelines. Think this one may get hairy for the Ags

I'm headed to the beach tomorrow for some R&R, so will be in sporadically. Good luck to all. And looking to next week, we are going to boat race Ole Miss. Bad. Please Mr. bookmaker, give me a TD or less

 

[M.O.T]

We'll be lucky to make it to Tampa at this point, but agree about the inexperience. For the defense to be good they need solid play from the young DT group. The starters are a soph (who I think will be a solid player for the next two years) and a junior who is playing through an injury. They really needed two of the three redshirt freshmen to step up as they probably have more physical ability than the rest of the group, but apparently they aren't ready to contribute anything at all. Very concerning and disappointing.

The offensive line has been a huge disappointment. They were supposed to be the strongest unit on the team and pave the way for a good running game to help the inexperienced QBs/WRs, but to this point they've regressed from last year.

If the OL play improves and someone emerges on the defensive interior they could still win 8 or 9, but it's tough to see it at this point. The game in two weeks will tell a lot about the current mindset of the program.

 

[twinkie13]

agree with MOT and agree with gps on the SEC West....there aint one easy out, and quite frankly these teams may cannibalize one and other....I fear LSU has a rough rough year

That goal line series told me all I need to know....and #50 for MSU? He just put his dick in LSU players all night

State still almost pulled a State tho.....

I was just concerned also that Dak is the only guy that can kill you, and you just let him.....was that group of WRs gonna run wild on LSU CBs? Hell naw...

 

[NYGiants25]

First ... let's get the SEC back up in the conversation ... 3 days??? last response??? ... i know there are plenty of haters up in this mo fo ....

 

[NYGiants25]

Second ... take the baseline out ...

a few of y'all will get that ... literally ... doesn't matter on this forum ... don't think hard ...

i've got thoughts ... they hurt ... woof ...

 

[NYGiants25]

Tenn (+17) @ UGA
Talent wise, this is UGA obviously , they have ground and air ... how high does Tenn get? Higher than me? leave alone ... no position either side

Vandy (+17) @ UK
i think this is a close game, rivalry is real ... take vandy

Arkansas (+9') @ aTm (Arlington)
i took the under here ... lots of running ... i think ATM will end up being the better team, cant play the spread but ATM should be fine ...

AU (-32') vs La Tech
I've got soooo many LATeech friends that promise a cover (they've done good this year (minus the SU loss at -23 .... I would have GONE there if it wasn't for LSU and then Ole Miss ... I think La Tech covers ... but shit, I only care about this game if they do cover, otherwise ... yes aubUrn will win by how many they decide)

Missouri (+6) @ SC
i HOPE TO watch this game in entireity ... wanna learn ... gun to head ... home team ... either way ... I'd take points at this point ... FML ...

Ole Miss (-18') vs Memphis
Good god ... wish this line was still available ... I think Rebs crush ... Defensively i don't see memphis being an issue ... I think Rebs defense is looking for another SOLID shutdown ... i really don't want to discredit memphis's ability ... but just announced ... guaranteed first time ever ESPN COLLEGE GAMEDAY in Oxford next weekend (cant wait, will be there, have condo less than a mile off campus) ... I think hugh makes sure of a 20+ victory to leave no doubt (and not conspiracy based on spread) i just think he keeps team focus for a solid win ... realistically i think we lose by at least two possessions to Bama, not drinking the kool aid just yet ...

LSU (-43) vs New Mexico State
who cares ... don't lose and don't win by less than 20 ...

 

[NYGiants25]

Superman that hoe