SEC Week 4 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Got some actual conference games this week. I'm going to list those here with my PR #s. I haven't looked at the actual lines yet, so they may be way off

LSU @ Vandy PR Line: LSU -21.5

Tenn @ Florida Florida -19

AU @ aTm aTm -2.5

Kentucky @ Miss St Miss St -8.5

South Carolina @ Mizzou Mizzou -7.5

Other games:

Alabama vs Southern Miss

Cal @ Ole Miss

San Jose St @ Arky

UGA vs Notre Dame
 
AU has a starting DB that will miss the 1H against aTm due to targeting call vs Kent St
 
booksbestfriend said:
Interested in you SEC guys take on OM/Cal. Kinda like Cal outright.
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My first reaction is to agree with you, but I'm not sold on a mid-level Pac 12 team winning on the road. Ole Miss may be down talent wise from where they were a few years ago, but I have to believe they are still superior physically than Cal, though I know next to nothing about them
 
I have a feeling. ND gets curb stomped this weekend. I don’t think their ready for what is about to hit them. Their run D has let lesser teams have good success. What’s going to happen when UGA unleashes like 7 RBs on them?
 
booksbestfriend said:
I have a feeling. ND gets curb stomped this weekend. I don’t think their ready for what is about to hit them. Their run D has let lesser teams have good success. What’s going to happen when UGA unleashes like 7 RBs on them?
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Those run D numbers are really surprising, but I didn't see the games. IF ND still had last year's DL (which was better than Bama's when it mattered the most), this line would be a joke, but I don't know what's going on with them this year.
 
From a Notre Dame fan calling himself Clearwall:

"We can be run on."

Well, we HAVE been run on, but look at how it was done. It was by two teams who were relying on trick plays and odd formations. UL was doing a lot of fakes and running off of broken pass plays. Not to mention, we had 0 tape on those players running a Satterfield offense. I mean, we knew what Appy State ran under him, but had no clue what he’d do with true D1 talent. After the first quarter, we did MUCH better once we were able to see that. UNM was doing that fake out with the QB looking to the SL and option looks. Those are so unusual that it’s hard to really prepare for it. UGA is going to be much more normal running the ball and we have a shit ton of tape on them.
 
M.W. said:
From a Notre Dame fan calling himself Clearwall:

"We can be run on."

Well, we HAVE been run on, but look at how it was done. It was by two teams who were relying on trick plays and odd formations. UL was doing a lot of fakes and running off of broken pass plays. Not to mention, we had 0 tape on those players running a Satterfield offense. I mean, we knew what Appy State ran under him, but had no clue what he’d do with true D1 talent. After the first quarter, we did MUCH better once we were able to see that. UNM was doing that fake out with the QB looking to the SL and option looks. Those are so unusual that it’s hard to really prepare for it. UGA is going to be much more normal running the ball and we have a shit ton of tape on them.
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Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth.- Mike Tyson
 
Miss St and UK seem pretty even to me, UK may even be a tad better. Although I do like the situation better for MSU off their loss vs UK off their's.
 
I forget the year I heard, but Alabama allowed a 300y passer and a 100y rusher for the first time in how many years?
 
s--k said:
I forget the year I heard, but Alabama allowed a 300y passer and a 100y rusher for the first time in how many years?
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I have no idea, but I do think it was several seasons after Saban got here that we allowed our first 100 yard runner, and that may have been Manziel. Guess I can take solace in that Clemson gave up a zillion passing yards to them last year?
 
I don't think anyone would've guessed a Fr QB in his second ever game would put up those numbers, even knowing some of the personnel issues Bama D has right now. But good for Hilinski, maybe the kid is going to be great.

Southern Miss would seem to have similar talent at their QB and WR positions. They got Watkins back last week, first game of season for him. It's a pretty good group.

I wouldn't think they have frequent success this week, I'm sure Saban was quite unhappy. But we'll have to see. I think it is a respectable test SM brings in light of what SCar did.
 
I know some people have said they see USM putting up 17 against Bama, I think that will be an extremely tough task. Saban will be back at home and mad after the points that USCar put up.
 
Ruger35 said:
I took Kentucky at +7. They seemed to be able to move the ball against UF's defense and I don't see MState's defense being that good. I think MSU is in a down year.
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Fyi Florida was down its top corner (one of the nation’s best) and lost one of its top pass rushers in the game to „targeting“
 
s--k said:
I don't think anyone would've guessed a Fr QB in his second ever game would put up those numbers, even knowing some of the personnel issues Bama D has right now. But good for Hilinski, maybe the kid is going to be great.

Southern Miss would seem to have similar talent at their QB and WR positions. They got Watkins back last week, first game of season for him. It's a pretty good group.

I wouldn't think they have frequent success this week, I'm sure Saban was quite unhappy. But we'll have to see. I think it is a respectable test SM brings in light of what SCar did.
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SC was able to have a game plan that both exploited our inexperience at LB as well as put Hilinski in a situation to succeed. A lot of quick slant, one-read type throws that neutralized any pass rush. What really killed the defense was an inordinate amount of missed tackles that extended drives. Not sure if we were less focused, first road game jitters, or we're just not a good tackling team this season, but it was the most glaring issue in my eyes. That and the penalties

Reading between the lines on what Saban said since the game, I expect run game and longer drives to be a focal point for the offense. Tua and the WR are playing at a higher level than last year, so it may be hard to have extended drives with so many players capable of producing chunk plays, but I would expect to see more effort to get the run game going this week. Najee is not a great between the tackles back and he thrives in space, so not sure what the coaches decide to do there. Would be really nice to have Trey Sanders right now.

There was a stated emphasis on the defense getting back to the basics this week, so that tells me that tackling is also concerning the coaches. Usually our defense bounces back in a big way after a poor performance, but this year is a little different based on the lack of experience.

I think given the offense's capability and the defense's vulnerability right now at least, you bet Alabama unders at your own peril
 
Auburn will be without one of its key pieces in the secondary for the first half of its SEC opener against Texas A&M this weekend.

Sophomore safety Smoke Monday will have to sit out the first half against the Aggies on Saturday due to an NCAA-mandated suspension resulting from a fourth-quarter targeting penalty he committed during last weekend’s 55-16 win against Kent State.

www.al.com

What Monday's targeting suspension means vs. Texas A&M

Smoke Monday will miss the first half of Auburn's SEC opener due to a targeting penalty in the fourth quarter against Kent State.
www.al.com www.al.com
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When Alabama takes the field against Southern Miss on Saturday, more than half of the players in that front seven could be true freshmen.


With preseason All-SEC defensive end LaBryan Ray now out indefinitely and possibly out for the year due to an ankle/foot issue, his backup — Justin Eboigbe — could become the latest true freshman starter for the Tide in that front seven that was already starting three other first-year players.

www.al.com

Tide front 7 to be more reliant than ever on freshmen

"I think we’ve got to work hard with those guys to get them to play well."
www.al.com www.al.com
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booksbestfriend said:
I have a feeling. ND gets curb stomped this weekend. I don’t think their ready for what is about to hit them. Their run D has let lesser teams have good success. What’s going to happen when UGA unleashes like 7 RBs on them?
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Thinking that D Andre Swift is going to become a household name this weekend.
 
I"m aware of all Ag losses. I have the broken furniture to prove it.
I have bet the Ags at the worst possible line bcuz I'm a homer. If Kellen Mond can magically hit a wide open rcvr against a team with a pulse, then we have a chance.
good luck to us.
 
pressitup said:
I"m aware of all Ag losses. I have the broken furniture to prove it.
I have bet the Ags at the worst possible line bcuz I'm a homer. If Kellen Mond can magically hit a wide open rcvr against a team with a pulse, then we have a chance.
good luck to us.
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Fellow Ag here. I too have broken furniture. I bought down to -3 at -135 when it was -3.5. Hoping they have a great first half with one of the auburn secondary having to sit out first half due to targeting.
 
Feels like the Aggies should win by 4+. Auburn could have a shot to score a TD to win it late but thinking they’ll likely be trying to cut it to 3 at the end of the game. It’s nice to be able to view a game without wanting a certain outcome. Lol. Good luck gents!
 
I think AU is an overall better team than aTm, but curious to see Nix in his first true road game. I've never been, but some of my buddies that went for some of the games against Alabama said it is every bit as loud as anywhere we've played
 
gps_3 said:
I think AU is an overall better team than aTm, but curious to see Nix in his first true road game. I've never been, but some of my buddies that went for some of the games against Alabama said it is every bit as loud as anywhere we've played
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I think both of those points are debatable. The home field advantage is indeed growing there. I think Nix experiences some growing pains.
 
LSU has some injury issues on defense. Both DEs (Lawrence/Logan) are out this week. Their backups have played a lot but there is a noticeable difference in quality, and the guys who will now be backups this week haven’t played much at all. Backup NT (Ika) has been injured and may not be available, would be limited at best. OLB Chaisson is questionable.

S Todd Harris was lost for the year last week. Vincent has played mostly in the nickel and will play more in his place, but that likely means another backup safety on the field in nickel situations.

Vincent isn’t physical and his weak effort/tackle attempt caused Duvernay’s long TD catch and run at Texas. If he can’t get the job done at safety they still have Delpit and Stevens, but they would prefer to have Stevens in his hybrid role around the line of scrimmage and let Delpit roam and make plays, so it’s a net negative if one of those two have to take his place.
 
M.O.T said:
LSU has some injury issues on defense. Both DEs (Lawrence/Logan) are out this week. Their backups have played a lot but there is a noticeable difference in quality, and the guys who will now be backups this week haven’t played much at all. Backup NT (Ika) has been injured and may not be available, would be limited at best. OLB Chaisson is questionable.

S Todd Harris was lost for the year last week. Vincent has played mostly in the nickel and will play more in his place, but that likely means another backup safety on the field in nickel situations.

Vincent isn’t physical and his weak effort/tackle attempt caused Duvernay’s long TD catch and run at Texas. If he can’t get the job done at safety they still have Delpit and Stevens, but they would prefer to have Stevens in his hybrid role around the line of scrimmage and let Delpit roam and make plays, so it’s a net negative if one of those two have to take his place.
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I think you will see a lot of M Hampton in and Marcel Brooks in. Against Northwestern Divinity sat out as well, he will be back. Neil Ferrell has been looking pretty good. I think the defense will stick to man coverage this week instead of continuing to try zone coverage that has not been working.
 
I would be surprised if you see Hampton, he has only seen action in the most extreme garbage time of the season late in the game last week.

Brooks is going to be great but looks like a tweener right now. He doesn’t have the bulk needed to play OLB in the normal rotation and I don’t think we’ve seen him in the secondary yet in game action. He could be a specialist that helps with the pass rush though.
 
Wasn't Hampton coming back from a hand/wrist injury? I, along with the staff like Stevens in the box and think that's where Aranda wants him so I think one of the other guys will at least get a shot at safety. You are 100% correct about Vincent though. Sure would be nice to have Kelvin Joseph still on the team to plug and play.

I think this has been LSU's biggest vulnerability on defense, losing a DB to injury. Sure Stingley, Fulton, and Delpit are great, but get into that DB depth and it could cost you games.
 
Yes, he was injured. My comment wasn’t a knock on his talent but I don’t think the staff is going to throw someone out there who they don’t trust. There are some other guys available who have played over him so far and O didn’t mention him last night when he ran through some of the possible combinations. Lewis played with the starters last week and he mentioned Jones when asked about it yesterday.

Absolutely agree on CB depth, they’re in trouble if anything significant happens to Fulton or Stingley. They have been solid outside while the nickels and safeties have struggled in coverage. There’s really no one behind them who’s ready. Flott has the length they like but he’s a total bean pole right now. If the outside guys aren’t locked down, coupled with the safety and pass rush issues, we would be looking at a lot of shootouts.
 
AU DL Derrick Brown is questionable with an upper body injury. I heard a rumor a few days ago that he had a torn pectoral muscle, but haven’t heard anything close to corroborating it. If I’m not mistaken, that injury would cost him a fairly big chunk of time
 
cal/ole miss qualifies for the unranked team being favored over a ranked team trend that hits very high%. with that said I like cal on paper. always go with the better defense more physical team
 
I wonder what that stat is if you can look back and where teams are travelling to/from. I think the last team to contribute to that stat I heard was Maryland/Syracuse maybe...I'd like to take Cal if the line got to 3, but west coast teams travelling always makes me hesitate.
 
Forgot about how the UF - UT game went down last year. Vols lost 6 turnovers, including 3 straight drives ending in fumbles.
 
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