SEC Week 4 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 4 games:

UGA @ Mizzou (+14)

Ole Miss (-28) vs Kent St

aTm @ Alabama (-25.5)

SCAR @ Vandy (+2.5)

LSU (-21.5) vs La Tech

Miss St @ Kentucky (+10)

Florida @ Tennessee (+4.5)

Arkansas @ AU (-27.5)
 
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My PR lines for conference games:

UGA -9.5

Alabama -19

SC -7

Miss St -9

Florida -4.5

AU -27

Maybe some interest in the home dogs. Gonna go through some things from last week and then thoughts on the week 4 games. Looking forward to everyone's thouhts
 
Outside of the turnovers and PI calls, the difference in the Auburn-LSU game was LSU’s OL playing Auburn’s defensive front to a draw, or close enough to a draw. Completely unexpected on my end.
 
Not much surprising from last week, outside of the biggest game. I thought I had this one pegged pretty good, but as I mentioned, I suck at capping AU. Doesn't matter if I bet on them or against them, I seem to be wrong most of the time. Although at the end of the first half, I thought we were right on track for a 3 score AU win, just with a few more points from LSU than I was expecting. Credit to LSU, not an easy place to win. Based on my watching, AU is elite on the DL, and then pretty average everywhere else. LSU's defense looked pretty solid, save maybe for the 2nd quarter. I know AU fans are complaining about the PI calls, but we've watched their DBs do that for years and dare the refs to call it. Well, they finally did. I'm not ready to christen LSU as a contender yet, Bill Connelly had their post-game win expectancy % at something like 15, but I definitely did not see them being 3-0 at this point and they are in the drivers seat in the west for now with that win at AU. AU might be in some trouble, because now they most likely need to win all of their road games if they want to win the West, and they have Miss St, UGA, and Alabama.

I watched most of the Alabama game, and there's not much that needs to be said, other than the defense showed out. Everyone will be justifiably talking about the offense, but Ole Miss is a pretty elite offense, and after the first play of the game, they were shutout. Deionte Thompson and Quinnen Williams have been dominant. After getting beat on that first play, Savion Smith was replaced with a freshman, Patrick Surtain, and he played pretty well the rest of the way. LB depth is still a concern, but Tua and the offense are on another level right now.

Looking at the box scores of the other games, nothing jumps out. From what I've heard and read, Vanderbilt was a couple of breaks from beating Notre Dame. Arkansas is really, really bad. So bad, they belong in the Big 10, lol
 
M.O.T said:
Outside of the turnovers and PI calls, the difference in the Auburn-LSU game was LSU’s OL playing Auburn’s defensive front to a draw, or close enough to a draw. Completely unexpected on my end.
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Burrow had much more time to throw than I thought he would. He got a little shaky in the middle of the game, but he was nails at the beginning and especially the end.
 
Arkansas...WOW! They might get blown out the water this weekend at Auburn. After that fiasco between Aub/LSU on the P.I. call, I think they take out some frustration, they play S. Miss next week, so no look ahead (I hope).
 
Interesting stat: AU is 22-21 in it's last 43 games against Power 5 teams. In the same span, UF is 21-21, with 3 different coaches. Most bipolar program there is
 
The pass interference penalties (Auburn) didn't bother me as much as not going for the "easy" 3 early in the game when you knew points were going to be hard to come by and in a game where you also knew 20 might win it. I should be used to his decisions by now
 
UGA @ Mizzou - this was a close game last year in the 1st half, then Mizzou defense fell apart. I could see this being a close game throughout, but I'd expect UGA to pull away late. No real interest in betting this game

Ole Miss (-28) vs Kent St - Ole Miss can definitely score, but I'm not sure backing that defense to keep within 4 TDs is a winning bet

aTm @ Alabama (-25.5) - seems high, but I'm not itching to bet against Alabama right now. AL TT over will be in play

SCAR @ Vandy (+2.5) - still not sure on what to think of Vanderbilt. With this line, basically saying they are going to win. SCAR got blown out against UGA, but I think they are still a top half of the conference team. Are they much worse, if any, than ND?

LSU (-21.5) vs La Tech - seems like a great spot for a let down game. I think this game may tell us a lot about O's growth as a coach. Can he keep the team geared up after such a great win and start to the season

Miss St @ Kentucky (+10) - Miss St or nothing for me. Another good team to back with TT over

Florida @ Tennessee (+4.5) - I should want to back Tenn here, but I can't.

Arkansas @ AU (-27.5) - Good luck Arky. Only hope is that Gus takes it easy on his former employer and home state school. Interest in AU and team total, but I can't bet this game after swearing I'd never bet another AU game after last Saturday
 
LSU won 22-21 on a last-second field goal, but this result should not be seen as a referendum on either team. For example, LSU averaged about 0.2 yards per play less than Auburn, had a -15.1 percent success rate margin, and averaged 1.5 points per scoring opportunity less than Auburn. LSU's postgame S&P+ win probability was just 17.4 percent. Auburn outpaced LSU in nearly every meaningful category -- except in total scoring opportunities (LSU had six to Auburn's four) and in turnover margin, where LSU picked off Jarrett Stidham twice.

Those two interceptions were probably enough to change the game. The first led directly to LSU's first touchdown, giving the Tigers the ball on the Auburn 34-yard line, while the other interrupted a promising Auburn drive at the end of the third quarter.

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, the Ohio State transfer, again completed less than 50 percent of his passes (going 15-for-34), but clustered his success well enough to still get six scoring drives out of the Tigers' offense. And his success was really, really clustered -- he went through a mid-game stretchwhere he completed just five of 18 passes before connecting on a 71-yard deep pass to Derrick Dillon.

The point here is that LSU is far from a sure thing despite an undoubtedly excellent win, so we have to be careful projecting them as a real challenger in the West. (S&P+ gives the Tigers just a 16 percent win probability against Alabama, along with three other projected losses.) Following the Auburn game, the Tigers' passing offense still ranks just 102nd in marginal efficiency, and second-to-last in the entire country in garbage time-adjusted completion rate (45.6 percent).

And it's a similar story for Auburn: don't count them out of the race for the West or the playoff, either. As unlikely as their win over Washington was (40 percent postgame win probability), their loss to LSU was even more unlikely (83 percent postgame win probability). They still rank 42nd in offensive S&P+ and 12th in defensive S&P+ and are built to challenge every team on their schedule despite playing four more teams ranked in the S&P+ top 12.
 
Those two interceptions were probably enough to change the game. The first led directly to LSU's first touchdown, giving the Tigers the ball on the Auburn 34-yard line, while the other interrupted a promising Auburn drive at the end of the third quarter.
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Don't see either as game changers really. While the first INT was huge to get LSU off on right foot, it happens so early that Auburn had literally the entire game to recover from, which they did, leading 21-10 at one point. The second INT was on 3rd and 8 thrown from the L44, so if that pass was incomplete rather than INT'd Auburn probably punts. Not really a promising drive there in my mind. Then we'll never know where LSU's drive would've started had they punted, if it went into the EZ it likely wouldn't have changed much. But we'll just never know what we don't know.

I see the 4th downs in the game as really monumental. Auburn' s failed 4th down by-passing a FG and LSU converted 4th-Ana-7 on that final drive all on their own with no help from the refs. Auburn kicks that FG or converts and maybe goes on for TD outcome could be different. LSU fails on their 4th down Auburn wins for sure.

Neither LSU nor Auburn are a great team. Both are or can still be very good teams. Maybe Auburn wins that game 7 out of 10 times, not a real surprising result LSU won and it's not likeAuburn was just so much better despite their turnovers.
 
was in an Auburn bar and that collapse was incredible. Slow start only to be dominant in the middle and then blow it late, bizarre

Surprised to see TENN dogged like they are to a team that lost at home to UK
 
chips t said:
Mizzous defense is awful.
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Mizzou is traditionally tough at home, but I don't see how they are remotely competitive versus Alabama Jr. Seems like UGA and the OVER are two of the easiest plays on the board this week. This one has 52-17 written all over it.
 
Huh? Ole Miss wishes they prepared differently? They.....took....Bama....lightly....?....?

OXFORD – Ole Miss wide receiver D.J. Metcalf made a startling admission.

“We kind of took them lightly watching film, like they couldn’t guard us on defense,” Metcalf said. “And we kind of overlooked their secondary a little bit.”

He wasn’t talking about the Rebels' first two opponents, FCS member Southern Illinois and the Big 12's Texas Tech, that gave up a combined 123 points to Ole Miss.

No, Metcalf was referring to defending national champion and current No. 1 Alabama.

Apparently, Metcalf and the rest of the offense was suckered by the fact the Crimson Tide didn't return any starters from last year's secondary that finished ranked second nationally in pass efficiency defense.

Both Metcalf and Ole Miss offensive coordinator Phil Longo said the offense wishes in retrospect, after falling 62-7 to Alabama Saturday, that they had prepared better the week leading up to the Crimson Tide’s Vaught-Hemingway Stadium visit.

https://www.clarionledger.com/story...last-weeks-preparation-tries-move/1361434002/
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Whats with everybody taking Bama lightly, talking trash or failing to prepare. Its like they secretely know they‘ll fail and wanna smoothe their ego
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Mizzou is traditionally tough at home, but I don't see how they are remotely competitive versus Alabama Jr. Seems like UGA and the OVER are two of the easiest plays on the board this week. This one has 52-17 written all over it.
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There’s zero chance Mizzou stops them. They have an excellent offense tho. Great over team. I think it’s more like 55-31. I think they score. Should be lots of possessions. Georgia should score fast.
 
chips t said:
There’s zero chance Mizzou stops them. They have an excellent offense tho. Great over team. I think it’s more like 55-31. I think they score. Should be lots of possessions. Georgia should score fast.
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Missou will have to at least get into the 30s to have any shot of covering, but I don't think they even sniff 30 points against that Georgia defense.
 
I really think their offense is maybe a top 5 offense. It’s really explosive. Lock should dial up a deep td a couple times. He did it last year against them. 53-28 last year. Did you grab Ga? I got -14. For some reason I didn’t play the total right away and the number moved against me. Still trying to grab the best number there
 
chips t said:
I really think their offense is maybe a top 5 offense. It’s really explosive. Lock should dial up a deep td a couple times. He did it last year against them. 53-28 last year. Did you grab Ga? I got -14. For some reason I didn’t play the total right away and the number moved against me. Still trying to grab the best number there
Click to expand...

I watched last year's Mizzou/Georgia game again, and with the exception of a couple of lucky plays, it was complete domination by the Dawgs. I have no faith in Drew Lock facing a legitimate defense, and think they struggle to score 20. I think this game will be something like 52-17 UGA.
 
Any other year, people would be talking about how stacked UGA is. That being said they havent been tested yet, Mizzou is going to score, lock is special enough. If UGA D shuts them down that would be a statement.
 
I will prolly play Arky. Know idea why they are spinning, but I'm over Stidham. Malzohn offense to me needs to be run by Lamar Jackson or hell Uconn Qb for it to be scary. Not scary now. Arky +31 seems ridiculous
 
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