SEC Week 3 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 3 games:

Tennessee -29.5 vs UTEP

Vanderbilt +14.5 @ Notre Dame

AU -10 vs LSU

Florida -19 vs Colorado St

Arkansas -7.5 vs North Texas

Alabama -20.5 vs Ole Miss

UGA -31.5 vs MTSU

SCAR -12.5 vs Marshall

Mizzou -7.5 @ Purdue

Mississippi St -31.5 vs Louisiana-Lafayette

aTm -25.5 vs La-Monroe

UK vs Murray St

Will be back to talk about this week and last throughout the week. Good luck to everyone
 
I'm going to try to keep up with SEC power rankings each week, don't have the time/energy to do the whole FBS though. Here are the lines I've come up with for this week's conference games, taking into account HFA:

AU -12 vs LSU
Alabama -18.5 @ Ole Miss

Hopefully this will be of some use throughout the season. If not, I'll scrap it
 
AU/LSU should be a low scoring game, which should favor the underdog, but I'm not sure LSU gets more than 14 points without a defensive or special teams score. I lean AU here, maybe even big

Alabama/Ole Miss I think will be pretty high scoring. OM definitely has the passing game to stretch our inexperienced DBs to the fullest. Also think Alabama will be able to do whatever they want on offense. As long as they hold onto the ball, think it will be a comfortable win. Thinking 45-28 or something. Over will be only thing I consider

Vandy has surprised some, especially with their offense, but I'm not itching to back them here. Not quite sure what ND has either

Fully expect Miss St, UGA, Tennessee, aTm, and SC to handle their business

What happened to Arky last week? I almost bet them because of Col St's issues on defense this season, glad I didn't. No interest in them this week

Speaking of Col St, my first thought is that Florida will roll them. Think they bounce back against a weaker team. Probably going to be a theme all season, offense looks great against the bad defenses, mediocre against the decent ones, and flat out bad against the elite
 
Hard to believe its been almost a year since I was in BR for the Auburn LSU game. What a game it was, expected no offense from LSU in that one either. Hate laying points in these types of games. Agree on Bama over, could see 75 plus there. Think UGA rolls of course.
 
UF looks good. At State, Mullen almost never beat anyone as a dog and almost always punished lesser teams as a big favorite (USA being the exception). Colorado State has to be feeling good after beating an SEC team, and their reward is to travel across the country where a pissed off team awaits. I think it gets ugly.

Tennessee should roll too. UTEP may be the worst team in football.
 
Auburn gonna wanna keep the foot on the pedal this time methinks and not becone undisciplined and allow ridiculous big touchdowns
 
I'll be on FLa. first half.
CSU has scored 7,10,9 in their 3 games.
7 vs. Hawaii

I'm not the sharpest tack but I don't think the Bows D is anything like a Gator D in the Swamp.
 
Anybody know much about La Monroe? Box scores don't paint a very rosy picture. Scored in final minute to beat SELA and benefitted from 4 S Miss TOs (one a scoop and score) to win by 1. aTm is in as big a sandwich spot as there is, just not sure if La-Monroe can take advantage.

I really like AU to cover here. I am notoriously bad at capping them, so take that with a grain of salt. I'm thinking 27-7 or something similaar
 
Things are different in college station. I think fisher won’t allow them to sleep. They will give some time perhaps for 2deep 3deep and they most assuredly will want to take advantage and show the coaches what they got.
 
gps_3 said:
Anybody know much about La Monroe? Box scores don't paint a very rosy picture. Scored in final minute to beat SELA and benefitted from 4 S Miss TOs (one a scoop and score) to win by 1. aTm is in as big a sandwich spot as there is, just not sure if La-Monroe can take advantage.
Click to expand...

2017 ULM lost at Auburn 14-42 and at Florida State 10-42. Although both those games were close at halftime.

ULM is trying to take a step forward this year and I think they are going to be a decent team compared to where they have been. So I would expect them to be a little better, atleast offensively vs P5 teams than last year, although the D is going to be hard pressed to deliver vs the likes of aTm.

Last week they basically benefited from just 2 turnovers. SM turned it over 4x, but on two of those ULM gave it right back for a +2 TO margin so saying they benefitted from 4 is misleading, but the two they got were big (D TD and INT to end the game with SM driving). ULM O was inconsistent last week vs SM. Vs SELa they had 4 empty drives penetrating the SELa 30 yard line due to missed FGs or turnovers. As it was, the SELa result didn't bother my outlook on them.

If ULM's O clicks they are capable, but how capable? You can see what mostly the same players did vs their late season P5 opponents last November.

aTm had Bama on deck, but ULM has Troy on deck. Next week is more important to both teams.
 
Thanks for the breakdown s--k. I don't think I'll be on ULM, but I do like to find situational spots to find value.
 
I am a ULM closet fan since last year.

I wouldn't mind if they won 6 or more games, lets put it that way.

Week One, they kinda were flat and had to steal a fairly easy game. Last week they did what ULM does at times and steal another one.

I think they put up some points this week as I am still looking at the TT over for them.

But, as s--k said, they have big fish to fry coming up.

It is definitely a letdown spot on the other side/sandwich.
 
Even I can't say what A&M will do.
Mond was making Johnny throws in the second half( all I saw).
If it was JFF, I would have said he's the man, but Mond---I just hope this is what he has matured into, cuz last year he was scurred.
The Ags definitely have to win the ones they can. SECW ya know.
 
Mizzou/purdue total all way up to 66. I think it’s a good time to grab under. Purdue has no pass game with their rotation at qb. I think Mizzou plays at less tempo this game(that’s my gut. Dooley showed similar offense last two games. Hasn’t implemented his wrinkles). Also think Mizzou puts emphasis on running the ball.
 
I get the sandwich spot bar, which is why I like playing Georgia southern vs Clemson but will not play ULM. I think a&m will cover. News did come out yesterday that Anthony Hines out for rest of the year so a&m lacks Lb depth.
 
What is the biggest mismatch in the LSU - Auburn game? LSU OL vs Auburn DL? That will make it tough on LSU to execute. Everyone probably figures that LSU's D should hold up vs Aubbie? They just play man on the receivers and focus on the run and getting to the QB? Help me out with some thoughts here if you will.
 
Yes on the Auburn DL being the biggest mismatch. I think this really sets up for an Auburn 2H play. I could see LSU’s defense and special teams keeping them in the game early, maybe even setting up a score or two on short fields, but we won’t be able to sustain drives and the defense will eventually wear down.
 
AU DL vs LSU OL is definitely biggest mismatch. Besides Gus vs Orgeron. AU OL/running game will also likely struggle until LSU defense gets tired. I like AU - the points, LSU TT un, 1H under, game under, in that order
 
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