SEC Week 2

[Blue_Chip]

I basically want to create a discussion for the SEC in the upcoming weekend's games. I know we have ETG and some others that focus on SEC football, so let's toss around some ideas...

If my records are correct, the SEC went 9-1 in out of conference play.
Arkansas has its bye week this week.
I currently see no value in Kentucky -13, Miss St -6, and LSU -12.5 (will post detailed analysis later in the week)...

Alabama -3 @ Vanderbilt
Vegas is giving Vandy a FG or so here with the game being played in Nashville, so I translate this line as Vegas saying Bama is roughly a TD fave over Vandy. I think Bama is more than a TD better than Vandy, hence I see value in Bama -3. Not to mention, I have been to Vandy games, and there is no tremendous homefield advantage.

South Carolina @ UGA -5.5
Sanford Stadium is a rough place to play. The Gamecocks had a poor showing against UL-Lafayette last week, and if they do not improve, I don't want to imagine how nasty UGA will make this game. I think the poor performance versus ULL was more of SC looking forward to this big game than a lack of talent. This is a rivalry game in my book, and I dislike betting rivalry games, but I see value in UGA here for bettors. ETG, add some thoughts, bud...

Troy @ Florida -26.5
Vegas gave Troy 25 points against Arkansas in Fayetteville, and now they are only going to give Troy 26.5 points to Florida in the Swamp??? Messed up! This is one of the most difficult venues to play in college football as a visitor. The sidelines are so small, that having the crowd that close to the field can seriously affect a visiting offense's play calling. Bottom line, Florida is a better team than Arkansas, the Swamp gives UF a bigger homefield advantage than Fayetteville, and this equals only 1.5 points??? Bettors should look into UF laying only 26.5 to Troy...

Missouri -6 @ Mississippi
I look for any reason to fade Ole Piss, and Chase Daniel only laying 6 points is reason enough... There is plenty of discussion on this game in the forum, as Mizzou -6 is a common play in week 2.

Southern Miss @ Tennessee -11
Ainge has had another week for the finger to heal, and Tenn gets its RB back (I think it was only a 1-game suspension, someone correct me if I'm wrong). Southern Miss is a good team, but they are a CUSA team playing in the 2nd largest stadium in the country. Tenn is pissed about losing to Cal and outmatch Southern Miss in every way. 11 points is not enough...

South Florida @ Auburn -7
We have Herbstreit on ESPN today telling Auburn to beware of S Fla... not buying it! S Fla pulled out a win by 15 points versus Elon... not impressive. Auburn has more talent everywhere on the field. Add to it that Jordan Hare is a very difficult venue for visitors, this line is off by 10 pts IMO...

Everyone share your thoughts...

 

[B.A.R.]

Funny that UF and Arky both basically 'opened' at same number to play Troy.

 

[sirwinzalot]

Troy/Florida -

I see Troy being able to defend Florida better, as Florida is not as physical of a running team, which that is what hurt Troy last week. Troy played Arkansas competitively but that run game wore them down. However, they could be really beat up heading into this game after McFadden and company pounded the ball down their throat. Troy QB Haugabook left the game late in the 4th, not sure what his status is, but I think he got a cut on his throwing hand. I expect him to play. I think this Florida team is a little overrated.

This game is tough, and I would stay away.


I like Vandy here and trust my buddy Pags knowledge on Vandy. Was already liking Vandy here, and I think they have had this game circled. Saban is getting too much hype right now. New coach, new schemes going on the road playing a Vandy squad that looks like could surprise people. I like Vandy to pull off the upset at home.

 

[sirwinzalot]

Agree with Mizzou, I am on them -6

I layed off week one because I was nervous about that game. I think they take care of Ole Miss, as Ole Miss gave up a bunch of yards to Memphis. If they have trouble defending the pass vs. Memphis, cannot be good for the Rebs trying to defend the potent Tigers pass attack. Tigers ripped them a new a-hole in Columbia last year. Mizzou has had road struggles in the past, but have heard their defense looked decent vs. Illinois, and the offense made some costly turnovers that I think they stay away from this week.

Mizzou I believe is a team that is on a mission this year, and I think they will put on a good road performance here. Think the Tigers win by two touchdowns or more here. This line is correct and fair. Give me the Tigers.

Tennessee should cover, but will they? Tough schedule spot, and I just cannot play Tennessee in this bad spot.

 

[E.T.G.]

BlueChip, good thread..

I agree on Missouri pissing on Ole Miss.
The LSU line is too high for me but I think they control the game and win pretty convincingly.
There should be a whole bunch of points in the Tenn/SoMiss game as I don't think Tenn keeps Fletcher out of the endzone and they won't slow Ainge down. Tenn should cover.
I think Bama wins and if the line was +7 I would take Vandy but not at +3.

The SC/UGA game is interesting. Sanford is a tough place to play, no doubt about it. There will be a decent amount of SC fans there, it is only 2.5 hours away from Columbia. 4 of the last 6 have been decided by 6 points or less. This is the only team in the East Spurrier has not beaten. Spurrier is 8-1 ATS on the road at SC and 6-3 SU. UGA looked better in their opener, no doubt about it. I've watched the UGA game twice and OkSt made mistakes and UGA capitalized. That is what a good team does. They play sound football and they are very fast. I like UGA rb Moreno, product of NJ, he was a beast in HS. Stafford has a very good arm. With all that said, they averaged 3yards/carry vs. OkST. In the games they have beaten SC, they have been averaging 5ypc. I think this game is bigger for SC than it is for UGA because they are use to beating SC (11-4 since 1992) and they look at FL and Tenn as their rivals in the East. For SC and their fans, this game is 2nd only to Clemson. There are a lot of starters on the SC team who feel like they were more or less shunned by UGA coming out of HS, like Blake Mitchell and the Brinkleys. Looking back at the ULL game, maybe they were uninterested and looking ahead, maybe not. I know what I saw and that was very poor tackling, that shit has to improve this week if they want a chance. The offense will pull out all the stops to win, I think Jarred Cook has a big day at WR/TE. The line I see is now -4 to -4.5 so looks as if some people jumped on the Cocks. I want to hear a little about practice this week before committing but this is a game in the summer I felt like we had a legit shot to win.Today I still feel that way. I feel like the ULL game was humbling for them and they are not walking into this game over-confident and cocky. I feel like they will have a chip on their shoulder.

 

[hile75]

I'll get into Tennessee quick......This IS a badspot for them, simply cause they travel to Florida the following week, and maybe, just maybe, look past USM this week, although they shouldnt be looking past anyone defensively, since that D was terrible last week.

As far as the RB's...Foster ran well last week, and Hardesty was good in the red zone, but getting Coker back will be a help. Tennessee looked very good on O and should be capable of putting up another 30+ points this week....If my memory serves me right, the game before Florida last yeare was Air Force, and they were a 2-pt conversion away from beating Tennessee, hence why I say they might be looking past USM....It's certainly a no play for me, I'll wait for the Florida line. Just wanted to add my .02 there.

 

[RSMS9999]

the tennessee game does look similar to UT-AFA last year.

 

[orange&white]

the tennessee game does look similar to UT-AFA last year.

Southern Miss doesnt run a crazy triple option offense like Air Force. Not much comparison in those two to me. I know Southern Miss has a good rush offense, but Jeremy Young is their QB and he scares no one with his arm, so I think UT at least contains the Eagles run game and the Eagles have close to non-existent passing game. Southern Miss has a better defense than Cal, but UT shouldnt be down 17 in the second half allowing the offense to stay more balance and getting Foster more than 13 carries. I look for a UT vicotry in the 27-13 range. I got the line before it moved to 11. I just don't see how a Conference USA team should only be getting 10.5 point at an above avearage SEC team.

 

[sirwinzalot]

I would not call Tennessee above average in the SEC this year. They are average this year.

 

[orange&white]

I would not call Tennessee above average in the SEC this year. They are average this year.

Ok a conference USA team against an average SEC team. Either way, imo, 10.5 isnt enough.

 

[RetroVK]

To me there are other concerns here besides the spot .. which as sandwiches go ... WOW .. pretty bad. In some respects it is like the air force affair a year ago .... except that USM this year is a much better squad than that falcons team was last year. This either makes it an even tougher game for tennessee or it allows them to actually focus on the opponent. It is a lot easier to look past air force than to look past usm.

my problem with the game ( and i am not playing either side) is that i think usm can run with some success but dont see them being able to dominate the tennessee defense the way cal did. that makes for one of those games where the eagles have an 8 play drive that gains 25 yards and then punts. this game will be shorter than most... i have similar concerns in the rutgers/navy game where i see less total possessions than your average game .. making an over or a favorite less favorable despite liking the favorite otherwise. With usm gaining yards but not having the big play ability of cal , i dont see them cashing in with a lot of td but having to settle for field goals. if tennessee gets ahead early i can see it getting out of hand as i dont have a ton of faith in usm passing game. remember that usm didnt score in the first quarter against tennessee martin last week. all of these factors plus the spot being a concern for egg laying makes me leery of the over and if i dont like the over a little bit i rarely like laying double digits. i dont see the usm defense as any worse than the cal defense ........ and with a probable lead , i dont see tennessee throwing as much .... and i dont see as many possessions. i dont like the usm side... but too many concerns for me to lay this number as the meat in a sandwich of bread with CAL on the bottom and Florida on top.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Hells yeah, people! This is what I wanted to start, great discussion! I just posted my initial leans above on each game; however, the only bet I have placed (and probably will place) is Mizzou -6.

My .02c I'd like to add here:
As far as the situation with AF in the game prior to Florida last season, Tenn was not in the situation they are currently in. I think Tennessee has to prove something this week, to themselves, their fans, and the general public. They were #15 to start the season, lost handily to Cal (albeit #12), and have Florida just ahead. Sure, they could look ahead, but I don't think they do as they know their backs are against the wall right now.

Keep up the good discussion...

 

[reNew Orleans]

good shit blue_chip - I would be on USF but with the thing Kirk H. is saying about Auburn getting upset by USF. He also said that since everyone seems to think thats a real possibility than Auburn should be focused on them. It kind of supports your side but 7 is just too much for me to lay on Auburn vs a team that I would expect to play better this week. BOL with Mizzou

 

[orange&white]

Hells yeah, people! This is what I wanted to start, great discussion! I just posted my initial leans above on each game; however, the only bet I have placed (and probably will place) is Mizzou -6.

My .02c I'd like to add here:
As far as the situation with AF in the game prior to Florida last season, Tenn was not in the situation they are currently in. I think Tennessee has to prove something this week, to themselves, their fans, and the general public. They were #15 to start the season, lost handily to Cal (albeit #12), and have Florida just ahead. Sure, they could look ahead, but I don't think they do as they know their backs are against the wall right now.

Keep up the good discussion...

Another fact to note is Air Force was not the home opener like SMiss is this year. I know it's a sandwich game, but you have to come out fired up for the home opener unless your Michigan (sorry B.A.R.).

 

[Blue_Chip]

Another fact to note is Air Force was not the home opener like SMiss is this year. I know it's a sandwich game, but you have to come out fired up for the home opener unless your Michigan (sorry B.A.R.).

:36_11_6:

 

[E.T.G.]

how bout this quote, sorry Michigan guys..


Spurrier had a message for those fans who went away discouraged from Saturday's game: the Gamecocks won. As a result, USC is 1-0 while a national powerhouse like Michigan is 0-1 after a stunning home loss to Div. I-AA Appalachian State.

"We're not quite like Michigan, now. We still won the game," Spurrier said. "We're not in the dumps around here. Really, it's probably good for us. Maybe I've overstated our team by throwing out some goals that appeared after that game the other night. We didn't play to the level we thought we could play. But we still won the game and we've got an opportunity to see if we can get to that level.

Spurrier said the Gamecocks faltered on all levels – coaching and playing – against ULL but intend to use the win as a learning experience.

"We've got a lot of work to do. We didn't look like a very well-coached team. We've all got to look at ourselves and see if we can't get a little bit better organized this week. We're believing we can play a lot better. I want our fans to believe that's not the product that we're trying to put out there. That was a sorry product we put out there, and we're going to try to do better."

 

[E.T.G.]

fwiw,

per a player on the football team.. They used 20% of the playbook vs. ULL and spent 2 days preparing for them. They have been preparing for UGA for 3.5 weeks and were a little flat for ULL.





Now.. Is this all true? It is plenty possible and would not surprise me 1 bit. They ran the same 4 plays in the 2nd half. Maybe Spurrier thought "Lets just get through the game with a win, not show much, and stay healthy".

I think the otherside of it is that the two QB's he used prob can't run 100% of the playbook either.


This is just something I wanted to throw out there to pass along

 

[Aztec4Life]

Solid lookin card, BlueChip. GL this week. :cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

I was afraid of the look ahead factor versus ULL, but it's too late now, I already lost that wager.

 

[E.T.G.]

UGA players talking smack?

Some of Georgia's defensive players have said this week that they're going to attack and see if the USC offensive line can block them.

"If they said that then they're putting down a challenge to us," Jeanpierre said. "We're just going to watch tape, practice hard, and do what we do. We can't worry about what they're saying, just what we can do. "

 

[Blue_Chip]

etg,

I do not think that would bode well for your Gamecocks if UGA's D-line attacks early & often.

 

[E.T.G.]

etg,

I do not think that would bode well for your Gamecocks if UGA's D-line attacks early & often.

no sir, it would not be good. Which is one of my big fears when SC travels to LSU, but that has to wait a few weeks.

The worst thing that can happen is Mitchell moving his feet all game because the pocket keeps collapsing. They need to protect him and give him time, no doubt bout it. I don't think the pressure would come from the UGA DL though by itself, it would be a combo of blitz packages from the lb's. This UGA front 7 is smaller than normal but very quick, especially on the edge. They are 230 and 250 on the ends and 230 at two LB spots but these kids can flat out run and have great instincts.

I think UGA on offense is going to try to test the LB's in space with dump offs and screens to the backs. I think they go after Carlos Thomas/Stoney Woodson at corner.

I think SC will do their best to try and test the young UGA OL as well.

The biggest key in this game for SC imo remains containing the run and holding them to 3.5-3ypc, not the 5yards they are accustom to.

 

[Blue_Chip]

I think Lumpkin will miss the game vs SC, but Brown is locking up that starting spot anyway.

 

[E.T.G.]

I think Lumpkin will miss the game vs SC, but Brown is locking up that starting spot anyway.

Lumpkin is out def.

Brown looked good but Moreno looked better, that kid is going to be the real deal.

This week they will both touch the ball a decent amount

 

[E.T.G.]

SC keys to success:

1)Contain the run
2)Don't get beat on special teams (Mikey Henderson)
3)Stop 3rd down conversions
4)Don't let Stafford scramble for big plays
5)Set the tone early


UGA keys to success:

1)Get pressure on Mitchell, get him to move his feet
2)Catch an over-agressive defense off guard (Swing passes/Screens)
3)Contain the rush
4)Capture momentum early
5)Make someone besides McKinnley show up at WR/TE

 

[E.T.G.]

I just don't see Vandy being a play at +3, think Bama wins the game by 4-6 points. A very close one though..

The Auburn/SFL game, I can't touch. Auburn looked like complete shit and USF didn't blow the roof open in WK1 either. Tough stadium to play in for USF but that Auburn offense was bad last week and I am not a big Cox fan.

Still think there will be plenty of points in the Tenny game.

I think the Troy game comes very close to landing on that number, maybe a late score from them to bring it from 34 down to 27ish.

 

[E.T.G.]

Just want to say, if there is anyone playing UGA or a UGA fan, please come participate here on why you will cover/win. I would love to hear some close opinions from the other side of things.. The Dawg message boards are over-flowed with 35-7 predictions and that I just can't/won't take seriously

 

[E.T.G.]

Something to pay attention to on the SC side of things...

Night before kickoff last week, James Thompson was suspended for 3 games for violating team rules. Lemuel Jeanpierre moved to guard to take his spot but he did not perform up to expectations and was replaced with Kevin Young. Kevin Young suffered an ankle injury in practice yesterday and is doubtful for the game. Garrett Anderson who started LG is going to move over to RG. Guerminder Thind who was competing with Anderson for the LG spot will fill that void. Thind is a big guy who started tackle last yr and got hurt in the UGA game and was lost for the yr. He did not have quick enough feet to play tackle so the move inside to guard is def better for him. He is one of top pass blockers on the team. There is a chemistry issue here on the OL though and I really would like to see how tonights practice goes with the new look OL.

 

[Aztec4Life]

I'll get into Tennessee quick......This IS a badspot for them, simply cause they travel to Florida the following week, and maybe, just maybe, look past USM this week, although they shouldnt be looking past anyone defensively, since that D was terrible last week.

As far as the RB's...Foster ran well last week, and Hardesty was good in the red zone, but getting Coker back will be a help. Tennessee looked very good on O and should be capable of putting up another 30+ points this week....If my memory serves me right, the game before Florida last yeare was Air Force, and they were a 2-pt conversion away from beating Tennessee, hence why I say they might be looking past USM....It's certainly a no play for me, I'll wait for the Florida line. Just wanted to add my .02 there.

hile -Cal will score that many points, or close to that many on just about every team they face this season, so I'm not smashing the Vols "D" that much.

 

[E.T.G.]

Thought this was interesting. Here are some thoughts, he is a writer for rivals for UGA. He was on the SC board fielding questions today..

Steve mind giving us who in your opinion has the edge in each respective category...USC or UGA


OLs - Edge to USC simply due to more experience, and most importantly, experience working together. Other than the two seniors, Georgia has very little experience on the offensive line.

WRs - On its face I would say this one is a wash since both teams have a bunch of receivers but no consistant superstar. If I had to give a nod, and forgive me for I might not know as much about Carolina as I should, I would have to go with UGA based on the fact that they are deeper now than I have seen them (this is my 10 year covering the team), and at least five or six are looking like they will really step up this year.

QBs - I think Stafford is the best underclassman QB in the nation. I think he will only get better, and I think in the next two years one of the main topics when the expert gurus at ESPN/ABC/CBS/ talk about the SEC, Stafford will be one of the main topics.

DLs - This one is similar to the OL, but after just one game given the two team's competition and how they faired, I would have to give the (gasp, I really think i will eat my words here) edge to UGA.

CBs - This one might be a wash as far as prior accomplishments, but I am going to go with UGA due to the fact that Evans, Allen, Miller, and Flowers have more upside.

Safetys - This one is pretty close, but if you consider depth in addition to starters, UGA.

LBs - While I think that Brandon Miller will have the best year of his career in Athens and Dannell Ellerbe could be a pre-season All SEC next year, I am going to go with the two Brinkley brothers and the USC backers on this one.

Special Teams - Give the edge to USC since Succop handles both duties well. UGA might be better in return, but you have to get the ball to return it.

RBs - I will give USC the nod on this one for now simply because Lumpkin is out and Moreno is a redshirt freshman. Boyd and Davis both look good.

Head Coach - Geez, how do you compare these two? Both outstanding men, both highly respected in their profession by their peers, and both very successful. I will give Spurrier the nod here simply because he won the National Championship with the same caliber of players and resources that Richt enjoys at UGA. Again, both great guys and two of the main reasons I love college football. They are both strict, no shenanigans with their team as far as off-field trouble, straight shooters, and I think both are just the same in "real life" as they are in their head coaching, mega-media, personalties. Talk about a great cookout to hear war stories!

Overall Offense, Overall Defense, and Overall Team: I am going to save myself from disclaimers here and just say that I think UGA has the depth and talent on both sides of the ball, which also means overall, that is a bit ahead of South Carolina at this point.


Will the loss of Lumpkin change the approach UGA takes against the Gamecocks?

If this question was asked a week ago, in other words before Knowshon Moreno had his big showing, I would say the loss of Lumpkin would probably force the Dawgs to approach the game differently. Still, I am sure the UGA coaching staff is pretty apprehensive when it comes to considering what they would do if either Brown or Moreno went down injured. The answer there now is a former walk-on in Jason Johnson (who is also in the fullback depth), and redshirt freshman fullback Shaun Chapas. Also, there is Caleb King, but I think they would like to redshirt King if at all possible.

Steve - Do you expect any changes in the starting lineup for this week? What is the weakest link for GA at this point?

The weakest link is still the offensive line, though they looked pretty good in week one. Still, the Bulldogs did not have to rely on their depth too much, and, much like three of the starting five, the backups have very little experience.

What weakness (if there is one) would you say USC can take advantage of most?

Georgia's weakness might be running right at them up the middle. They are fast, but can they get physical? Also, can UGA's receivers be consistant? Can they be physical if they are jammed at the line?

Steve, please give an analysis of your starting d ends compared to last year.

Close, but not real close. Totally lacking the experience and size, and perhaps the big play ability. Howard is a high energy guy who flys to the ball, but he is a little light and might not be able to get off the edge against SEC O-tackles. Battle is very sound in his fundamentals, plays within himself, and is good, but lack experience.

Nobody loses two first day pics and replaces them with better players a year later....well, nobody except Southern Cal ;-)

Against Ok St they averaged just 3 yards per carry which is not your normal UGA numbers. Do you think that if SC can hold them to those type of numbers, their chance of winning this game significantly increases? =)

I certainly do think that if USC can hold UGA to 3 yards per rush average they have and probably will win the game. The one thing that UGA has this year going for them that they have not in a while, is depth at receiver coupled with a solid QB that might be able to make some of that up through the air. If USC can hold UGA to 3 per rush, and prevent the big play through the air, they leave Athens with a W.

Steve, after watching the UGA game, I think our D-Line may be the key to winning the game for us. With Eric Norwood, Cliff Matthews, Trav Robertson, etc., do you think the true fresh LT (Sturdivant I think), can hold off the speed rush to protect Stafford?

As far as the D-Line, I agree with you that guys like Sturdivant and Davis are about to see how good they really are. Both are young, and they might be feeling good about themselves after the season opener, but OSU is no SEC school, and USC has SEC talent just like the rest of the better teams in the conference (depth is always the concern there).

What, if anything, is the Georgia staff concerned about with their matchups w/ USC, areas that that they think USC could attack successfully?

Georgia is clearly concerned about the offensive line. Sure, they did okay against OK ST, but the game was handled by the fact that every other aspect (save special teams) was firing on all cylinders. The OL caught a break in that they were not call upon to win it in the 4th quarter. So, that is a major concern given USC's DL.

Georgia main advantage is going to be their speed and depth on defense.

 

[Blue_Chip]

UGA down to -4... Troy suspended DE... I might have to bite on Florida and UGA

 

[E.T.G.]

UGA down to -4... Troy suspended DE... I might have to bite on Florida and UGA

good health

:smiley_acbe:

 

[horses]

Auburn has more talent everywhere on the field.

Auburn may very well cover this game and I certainly don't like Herby touting USF, but this statement is just plain false.

USF has advantages in the back 7, along the OL and at QB, only because Groethe can improvise more and both QB's could be running for their respective lives.

Fuckin' Herbstreit. I'm not into the public/sharp thing, but even I have to take notice of someone like Herby casting USF as a public dog...sheesh...if Dr. Bob releases USF and the line goes down to say 4, I may have to look at a possible middle.

GL.

 

[E.T.G.]

Right now Herbie is 0-1 on his UD pick of the week. I went down in flames with him though, fucken Arizona

 

[Blue_Chip]

The more I looked at it this week, the more I liked LSU -12.5 and Miss St -6. 4-2 in the above write-ups, but only had money on Mizzou -6. I hope everyone had a $ weekend.