SEC Week 2 Discussion

[gps_3]

SEC Week 2 games (all numbers accurate from my local as of 8 am CDT Thursday 9/4):

Alabama -40/50' vs FAU
Missouri -3'/60 @ Toledo
Tennessee -17/51 vs Ark St
Miss St -27'/58 vs UAB
Kentucky -13/52' vs Ohio
Florida -37'/54 vs E. Michigan
Ole Miss -20/50 @ Vanderbilt
SCAR -16'/63 vs ECU
AU -31/65 vs San Jose St

No line yet:
Arkansas vs Nicholls St
LSU vs Sam Houston State
aTm vs Lamar

Discuss....

 

[gps_3]

This week's SEC slate is about as unappealing as it gets. The weekend before rivalry weekend will look pretty similar too. But I think there's bets to be won with this slate. This is the chance for a lot of 2nd teamers to try to earn more playing time, and some positions are still up for grabs, so we can see max effort from teams even when up 4+ scores, but we can also see teams put on auto-pilot in the 2nd half and not cover the big number.

Week 1 thoughts:
Can't overreact after one game. Teams generally aren't as good or bad as they play in week one, so I don't make any radical changes as to what I think teams are, but I do think some looked better than expected, as expected, and worse than expected:

Better than expected: aTm, UGA, UK

As expected: AU, Ole Miss, UT, Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Miss St, Arkansas

Worse: SC, Vanderbilt

I included LSU and Alabama in the as expected category, even though the national perception is that the were worse. Though I think that's due more to unreasonable expectations than anything. Both teams were replacing a lot of starters, new QB, non-pushover opponent, neutral location, etc. More about Alabama later.

I did not see the UGA game, but everyone is falling over themselves for them now, so I guess they looked real good. From the box score, it looked like an even game until the 4th quarter and Clemson's defense just gave out to the UGA ground game. Don't know how good Clemson is, but shutting down their offense in the 2H seems impressive.

AU was another game where the superior team eventually wore down the weaker team. It was pretty evenly matched in the 1H. AU still struggles on defense. The backup QB looks to be a much better passer than Marshall, but looked like a different playbook once Marshall came in. He may not be much of a passer, but he's probably the best zone read QB since Vince Young. Maybe better. Once AU got the pick 6 and Ark basically abandoned the run game, it was game over. Tough beat for those holding an Ark card as they didn't score again after half.

I think LSU was a little fortunate with Wisconsin injuries, but they stepped it up in the 4th quarter and got it done. LSU may not win as much this season as previous ones, but they will be a tough out for whomever they play

Ole Miss had a nice win, but it didn't look that great. Sloppy first half by Wallace, and defense looked a little lost. Made some plays in the redzone, then superior athletes took over in 2H. Will have to clean things up if they want to contend.

Didn't really pay attention to the other games. SEC has got to do something about having their marquee games at the same time.

 

[Elbutre88]

This week's SEC slate is about as unappealing as it gets. The weekend before rivalry weekend will look pretty similar too. But I think there's bets to be won with this slate. This is the chance for a lot of 2nd teamers to try to earn more playing time, and some positions are still up for grabs, so we can see max effort from teams even when up 4+ scores, but we can also see teams put on auto-pilot in the 2nd half and not cover the big number.

Week 1 thoughts:
Can't overreact after one game. Teams generally aren't as good or bad as they play in week one, so I don't make any radical changes as to what I think teams are, but I do think some looked better than expected, as expected, and worse than expected:

Better than expected: aTm, UGA, UK

As expected: AU, Ole Miss, UT, Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Miss St, Arkansas

Worse: SC, Vanderbilt

I included LSU and Alabama in the as expected category, even though the national perception is that the were worse. Though I think that's due more to unreasonable expectations than anything. Both teams were replacing a lot of starters, new QB, non-pushover opponent, neutral location, etc. More about Alabama later.

I did not see the UGA game, but everyone is falling over themselves for them now, so I guess they looked real good. From the box score, it looked like an even game until the 4th quarter and Clemson's defense just gave out to the UGA ground game. Don't know how good Clemson is, but shutting down their offense in the 2H seems impressive.

AU was another game where the superior team eventually wore down the weaker team. It was pretty evenly matched in the 1H. AU still struggles on defense. The backup QB looks to be a much better passer than Marshall, but looked like a different playbook once Marshall came in. He may not be much of a passer, but he's probably the best zone read QB since Vince Young. Maybe better. Once AU got the pick 6 and Ark basically abandoned the run game, it was game over. Tough beat for those holding an Ark card as they didn't score again after half.

I think LSU was a little fortunate with Wisconsin injuries, but they stepped it up in the 4th quarter and got it done. LSU may not win as much this season as previous ones, but they will be a tough out for whomever they play

Ole Miss had a nice win, but it didn't look that great. Sloppy first half by Wallace, and defense looked a little lost. Made some plays in the redzone, then superior athletes took over in 2H. Will have to clean things up if they want to contend.

Didn't really pay attention to the other games. SEC has got to do something about having their marquee games at the same time.

blasphemy.

 

[Elbutre88]

on auburn and wish i got ky at -10. i have auburn rolling, and ky should be good, but i missed out on any value there.

 

[gps_3]

Alabama thougts:

I think this was a great first game for Alabama. Average team that runs the type offense that has beaten us the last few seasons. Lot of new faces getting first real playing time, so some mistakes were to be expected. It wasn't as dominating a performance as most expected or wanted to see, but I'm not worried given that it was the first game.

Offense:
Blake Sims showed why he was named starter over Coker. Didn't make many bad decisions with the ball (only one was the INT into coverage), kept the chains moving, and generally put the ball where it was supposed to go. He did have some ugly throws that would have been big gains, but for now we can chalk that up to inexperience rather than lack of ability. Running game looked great as expected. Was really encouraged by the play of the OL, especially the left side with a true freshman LT and Arie Kouandjio who was a perceived weak link last season. WR for the most part played well, even with a few drops. Amari Cooper is a stud. I thought Kiffin had a great game calling plays, just was hoping to see more throws to OJ Howard and Kenyan Drake out of the backfield. Maybe that was due to WVU defense or keeping the playbook simple, so I'm hopeful that we'll see that in the future. Was interesting that we didn't see Coker, but I think the game was close enough that playing QB roulette would have caused more harm than any potential good. He basically has 2 weeks to win the job, or it's Sims for the rest of the season

Defense:
Not the best performance. Really missed Trey Depriest in the middle. Reuben Foster may be a real talent, but he's not ready to be making calls for the defense. The DL was very disappointing in the 1H. WVU was pushing them around pretty good, especially in the interior. They played much better in the 2H. LBs were out of position a lot, but I think that will be cleaned up with Depriest back, and more experience for the younger guys. Bradley Sylve was the scapegoat in the secondary, but he was in position most of the game, but the WR made the play more time than not. While being in position is half the battle, at some point you have to make the play and I'm not sure Sylve is that guy. Eddie Jackson has been practicing this week, but is coming off ACL surgery in the spring, so not sure what kind of player he'll be. I'm guessing Tony Brown starts getting some PT, but I'm terrified about a true freshman against some of the monster WR we'll be facing down the road. A lot has been said about Saban's inability to stop the HUNH/spread typed offenses, and while there is something to it, the teams that run that offense and have beaten Alabama have generally been top 5 teams with Heisman contending QBs. They score on everybody's offense, not just Alabama. While we gave up a ton of passing yards to WVU, we held their run game to 28 yards, and they scored 16 offensive points. Meaning we played well in the red area, which is key against these offenses. The defense certainly has to get better if we want to compete for a championship, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel. One factor that hasn't been given enough credence is that our front 7 practiced together once during fall camp. So some players weren't quite in game shape yet, and haven't gelled yet. Might be a few weeks before they do

Special teams:
Place kicking and punting were both phenomenal, especially considering a first time starter at PK (who's last attempt was returned 109 yards to end our season) and a true freshman P. Return units did nothing bad or great. Coverage units were fine, except for the KO return. Without that play, the game may have taken on a very different course. Seems we give one of those every few games. Need to tighten that up for sure.

 

[gps_3]

on auburn and wish i got ky at -10. i have auburn rolling, and ky should be good, but i missed out on any value there.

AU is one of those teams that I think will continue to score all game. Especially in these scrimmage type games. SJST will be worn out by mid 3Q and AU will start breaking off 50 yard runs. Also, if I ever want to bet against them in the future, I'm taking 1H

 

[Elbutre88]

excellent point about the 1h angle. and auburn's d line is gonna need work at handling an actual running game.

 

[RetroVK]

Come on GPS .... comparing Marshall to Young? Greatest season of QB I ever witnessed in the cfb game was Young. Hell, he singlehandedly beat the team of the Century .... and the worst Heisman winner ( had to give it back of course ) of all time.

 

[gps_3]

Ok. Maybe a little hyperbole. But he's good

 

[twinkie13]

Maybe he ain't VY but he is fucking way better than I ever thought

 

[twinkie13]

LSU let down week....if I get a big enough number, I'll be on SHSU

 

[gps_3]

LSU let down week....if I get a big enough number, I'll be on SHSU

You don't think they'll let Fournette run for a million yards?

 

[gps_3]

I'm thinking about the over in the Alabama game. Usually we win these games like 45-3, so it goes under, but I'm thinking we may give up 7-10, while still scoring 45+. Saban said there is still very much a QB competition going on, and I don't think the coaches will learn much by watching Coker and Sims hand the ball off all game, even in the 4th quarter

 

[twinkie13]

You don't think they'll let Fournette run for a million yards?

Obv last week wasn't what we wanted to see(LSU fans) but he had jitters and the moves that worked against Jesuit ain't gonna work against Wisconsin....

what number is out there?

 

[gps_3]

Obv last week wasn't what we wanted to see(LSU fans) but he had jitters and the moves that worked against Jesuit ain't gonna work against Wisconsin....

what number is out there?

Haven't seen one. My book typically doesn't release the numbers until day of. Just thought with first home game, local freshman badass, they might cover while trying to run out clock

 

[twinkie13]

Haven't seen one. My book typically doesn't release the numbers until day of. Just thought with first home game, local freshman badass, they might cover while trying to run out clock

Ususally Les won't beat up on LA schools.....being TX, you may have a point

 

[M.O.T]

I've seen 34 on the LSU game.

Also keep in mind that while Wisconsin took some defensive line injuries during the game, LSU played the entire game short 3 DTs and one of the starters has a partially torn bicep.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I bet Arky 1st half last week. I didn't trust them to hang tough for the whole game, but I did expect a tight 1st half. It worked out as planned . . . for once.

As usual your thoughts on Alabama and the SEC in general mirror mine.

Best of luck this week gps!!!