SEC Week 12
- Thread starter gps_3
- Start date
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
Is UGA pissed or flat? Is UF good enough to lay 10.5 against Bill Clark? State has to be deflated, but Arkansas is trash. I think Mizzou rolls Vandy. Auburn will probably be sluggish, but they could cover on accident. Does Tennessee get the new coach bump? Ole Miss' D is still really really bad. I'm interested in the total.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I feel like I could have written that post. Will have some thoughts when I get a few minutes
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Was able to watch most of the AU-UGA game, and all of the Alabama game. My thoughts:
Play of the game for AU was the UGA personal foul on an AU punt that resulted in a first down. To that point, it was 9-7 AU and UGA's defense had pretty much weathered the storm, even if AU was limiting UGA's offense after the first drive. AU scored a long TD pass on the next play in which Stidham had 5 seconds to throw it. Not a great pass, but the WR made a great adjustment on the ball and showed good hands and body control to make the catch and score. First time I've been impressed with an AU WR in years. Even with that, UGA was fine until they fumbled a punt early 3rd quarter. AU scored quickly again and then UGA fell apart. To me, UGA looked shell-shocked and never recovered. I think the moment got to big for them, and if you give an AU offense the momentum, they can turn it into a blowout as well as anyone. I wrote last week that we'd learn a lot about both teams, and I think we did. UGA was probably a paper tiger, benefiting from a light schedule and from how well Notre Dame played from weeks 3-10. I pretty much changed the channel after it became 30-7, because I had seen all that I needed to. Did AU leave their starters in the whole game? Seems like Kerryon Johnson's 32 carries is too many for a blowout, but it appears Gus is trying to get him in the Heisman discussion. Could mean big yards for him against La Monroe. I have my doubts that UGA will recover from this. I will be against them no matter who they play in Atlanta, also will likely fade them the next 2 weeks.
I was about as wrong as I could be on the Alabama game. Never would have thought I'd see them get pushed around the way they did on defense in the first 3 quarters. LB situation caused a bunch of it, but I think the entire front 7 was off. I think some can written off from the hangover from the LSU game, it was pretty physical, and also Miss St had a game plan that showed they were not scared to run it right at Alabama. Mullen's a good coach, and he had a good plan. I do think there's been a massive overreaction to the game, but it's to Alabama's benefit, so I don't care so much. Glad to let AU have more pressure at this point. Alabama made some good adjustments after the half, and I also think MSU played and coached not to lose rather than go for the win. Fitzgerald was pretty banged up after his TD run in the 3rd quarter, he was puking on the sidelines, and not sure he was back to normal the rest of the game, so maybe that's why their offense stalled. There are probably more talented QBs in college, and ones that will have better pro careers, but I'm pretty happy with Jalen Hurts. Think he's played two outstanding games in a row, though the stats may not look like it. I don't know how many teams could have won that game given the same scenario. Maybe I'm just a homer
For this week, I'm definitely interested in fading UGA, UF, and Tennessee. Will almost certainly be on Mizzou. Probably will fade SC depending on the line. Not sure yet on Alabama, will let y'all know what I hear about practice etc.
Play of the game for AU was the UGA personal foul on an AU punt that resulted in a first down. To that point, it was 9-7 AU and UGA's defense had pretty much weathered the storm, even if AU was limiting UGA's offense after the first drive. AU scored a long TD pass on the next play in which Stidham had 5 seconds to throw it. Not a great pass, but the WR made a great adjustment on the ball and showed good hands and body control to make the catch and score. First time I've been impressed with an AU WR in years. Even with that, UGA was fine until they fumbled a punt early 3rd quarter. AU scored quickly again and then UGA fell apart. To me, UGA looked shell-shocked and never recovered. I think the moment got to big for them, and if you give an AU offense the momentum, they can turn it into a blowout as well as anyone. I wrote last week that we'd learn a lot about both teams, and I think we did. UGA was probably a paper tiger, benefiting from a light schedule and from how well Notre Dame played from weeks 3-10. I pretty much changed the channel after it became 30-7, because I had seen all that I needed to. Did AU leave their starters in the whole game? Seems like Kerryon Johnson's 32 carries is too many for a blowout, but it appears Gus is trying to get him in the Heisman discussion. Could mean big yards for him against La Monroe. I have my doubts that UGA will recover from this. I will be against them no matter who they play in Atlanta, also will likely fade them the next 2 weeks.
I was about as wrong as I could be on the Alabama game. Never would have thought I'd see them get pushed around the way they did on defense in the first 3 quarters. LB situation caused a bunch of it, but I think the entire front 7 was off. I think some can written off from the hangover from the LSU game, it was pretty physical, and also Miss St had a game plan that showed they were not scared to run it right at Alabama. Mullen's a good coach, and he had a good plan. I do think there's been a massive overreaction to the game, but it's to Alabama's benefit, so I don't care so much. Glad to let AU have more pressure at this point. Alabama made some good adjustments after the half, and I also think MSU played and coached not to lose rather than go for the win. Fitzgerald was pretty banged up after his TD run in the 3rd quarter, he was puking on the sidelines, and not sure he was back to normal the rest of the game, so maybe that's why their offense stalled. There are probably more talented QBs in college, and ones that will have better pro careers, but I'm pretty happy with Jalen Hurts. Think he's played two outstanding games in a row, though the stats may not look like it. I don't know how many teams could have won that game given the same scenario. Maybe I'm just a homer
For this week, I'm definitely interested in fading UGA, UF, and Tennessee. Will almost certainly be on Mizzou. Probably will fade SC depending on the line. Not sure yet on Alabama, will let y'all know what I hear about practice etc.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Not interested in fading UGA, but will be against TN and UF. Both AL and AU will be no plays. Each of them could accidentally cover. If anything, 1st H plays on. USCe will be playing for bowl positioning. Will see where that ends up later in the week to see if I want to chance it. OM/A&M over play. MSU will be a no play. Week after Bama opponents are either play against, or no play. I can’t back Ark, so no play.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
What a shit show that’ll be. I felt the Gators had given up against Mizzou. They showed some guts this past weekend, but it was just too little, too late.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
Bama was -10.5 in the iron bowl before they tangled with State and Auburn beat down Georgia. Now it's -3.5
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Probably 6.5-7.5 next week.
It's not like Georgia had playoff expectations coming into the season like Penn State did right? So why would they fall flat ? When they still feel like they have something to play for
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It would have been one thing to lose a closely contested game, but they got embarrassed. Worst loss by a CFP #1 ever. Young team not used to the spotlight, just think they limp home the rest of the regular season, think they’ll be a good play for the bowl game once they get a chance to regroup
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Think books felt like there’d be a ton of money coming in on aub, and wanted to limit their exposure. Agree that it’ll likely be 6-7 by kickoff
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I thought Arkansas played decent, either that or LSU was hung over or still just not that consistently good. A few big plays by LSU, some challenging field position for Ark and couple penalties that created long down-distance situations that Ark had to punt from were contributing factors. Although LSU's K left 5 pts off the board. Score, first downs and yards all even in the first half. It was Allen's first game back in a month. I don't think he was 100% but Kelley was banged up too and they determined Allen was closer. Although Kelley relived him in the 4th and nearly led them to back door. Bert said he was trying to give the O a spark.
Kelley is suspended for DWI.
Kelley is suspended for DWI.
EFC1878
Pretty much a regular
-3.5 +100 at 5D right now. Definitely going to bite on that.
I would highly recommend buying that hook though. That's just imho
EFC1878
Pretty much a regular
My initial guy instinct when I first saw this thread (I had not yet checked the updated GOY numbers so didn't realize it had dropped so much until reading the posts above) was to lay it and then play back next week for a middle shot if the lines rises as I'd expect. In that scenario I would have bought it down. But after looking into it a bit, and having watched a decent amount of each team this year, I just really like the way Alabama matches up with Auburn, so I decided to roll juice free as I just really think this game ends with at TD+ Alabama win.
100% Agree. It could even be a 24-20 Bama final or 28-24. You are good me thinks.
sabertstxvii
Active Member
Kinda disagree a bit with UGA being really flat from here on out. Sure, they may have been exposed by Auburn as to where they are vulnerable. It isn't something that none of us didn't know before. Stop the run, force them to pass. Auburn has a top 10, arguably top 5 defense to do that, and they were at home.
UGA still has the playoffs to play for. They are in the SECCG, and they need to have a quick turnaround for all the style points possible. Maybe their next two opponents can scheme against them and cover, but I don't think it will necessarily be because UGA doesn't care about the season anymore. Could be the opposite. Nothing to lose at this point.
Just my thoughts.
UGA still has the playoffs to play for. They are in the SECCG, and they need to have a quick turnaround for all the style points possible. Maybe their next two opponents can scheme against them and cover, but I don't think it will necessarily be because UGA doesn't care about the season anymore. Could be the opposite. Nothing to lose at this point.
Just my thoughts.
Does Georgia really still have playoffs to play for?
sabertstxvii
Active Member
They win out, they're in. So...yeah?
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don't mean to say they have nothing to play for or that they won't care, I mean that their confidence is shattered and they have lost a ton of confidence. Getting off the mat after taking a knockout punch is not easy
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
The SEC death march continues.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
It's not like they aren't used to it.
It just came a little later this year than normal.
