SEC Week 12 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
SEC games for 11/15:

Alabama (-10/52) v Miss St

S. Carolina (+7/58') @ Florida

UK (+8'/54) @ Tennessee

AU (+2'/68') @ UGA

Missouri (+4/59) @ aTm

LSU (+2/47') @ Arkansas

BYE: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss


Discuss...
 
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twinkie13 said:
UK and Messy St would look like plays
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Personally I think we stomp MSU. Maybe that's just the bammer in me. MSU is 91st nationally in total defense. For comparison, aTm is 93rd. We are infinitely better at home than the road. Though the hangover effect is a legitimate capping possibility. Also think UT is on the rise while UK is on the decline.

Fun game Saturday night. Tough loss I know. Always a tight game
 
SEC situations of note:

LSU going on road after OT, emotionally draining game

Alabama faces #1 team after same game as above, some injuries to follow

Auburn after gut wrenching loss goes on road to UGA. AU def giving up 492 y/g last 3 weeks. Fatigue?

UGA gets Gurley back, revenge for hail mary loss last season, last SEC game of season

Miss St on road, Prescott banged up

aTm off biggest win of season, 5 year extension for Sumlin?

Ark off a bye against a team susceptible to runs b/t the tackles

SC off a bye, on road at Spurrier's former team, last SEC game of season

UF with chance to win east, last SEC game of season

Mizzou in driver's seat for East, off a bye

UT off a bye, needs 2 out of 3 for bowl eligibility

UK playing 8th straight game before bye then Louisville. Last SEC game, need one win to get to bowl eligibility
 
UAB and Kentuck both had over 500 yds versus Miss St. Bama 27-10. Think Georgia gets some payback from the Prayer last year. 45-34ish.
 
gps_3 said:
Personally I think we stomp MSU. Maybe that's just the bammer in me. MSU is 91st nationally in total defense. For comparison, aTm is 93rd. We are infinitely better at home than the road. Though the hangover effect is a legitimate capping possibility. Also think UT is on the rise while UK is on the decline.

Fun game Saturday night. Tough loss I know. Always a tight game
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You know how I feel about Mississippi State... y'all win this one by double digits. As much as I don't like Prescott, though, I think he will be a problem in the 1st half until the D gets a good feel for his style of play. Close one at the half, and you guys pull away when Prescott starts forcing throws and turning it over. 38-24, and then the playoff picture gets weird.
 
gps_3 said:
Personally I think we stomp MSU. Maybe that's just the bammer in me. MSU is 91st nationally in total defense. For comparison, aTm is 93rd. We are infinitely better at home than the road. Though the hangover effect is a legitimate capping possibility. Also think UT is on the rise while UK is on the decline.

Fun game Saturday night. Tough loss I know. Always a tight game
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The ownage is getting old. I can look to the bright side and say with an 8-26 for 76 yards performance from an incompetent dumbass, we were right there and could've won. LSU has insane talent like ya'll do. Trey Quinn looked like a dear in head lights. If you would have told me Cooper was gonna have his worst game and we still couldn't win, sigh....

I know this. Leonard is the deal. If Hill and OBJ and Jarvis stay, my God...


Fun like always..:shake:
 
twinkie13 said:
The ownage is getting old. I can look to the bright side and say with an 8-26 for 76 yards performance from an incompetent dumbass, we were right there and could've won. LSU has insane talent like ya'll do. Trey Quinn looked like a dear in head lights. If you would have told me Cooper was gonna have his worst game and we still couldn't win, sigh....

I know this. Leonard is the deal. If Hill and OBJ and Jarvis stay, my God...


Fun like always..:shake:
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I don't see how y'all aren't picked to win the West/SEC next season.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Strong line for Bama, especially considering they are coming off a tough game at LSU last week.
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I think Miss St being 123rd in pass defense has something to do with it. Alabama at home is a much different animal than on the road. I think Dak and Wilson can cause us some problems. Once we start hearing some health updates, we can start capping the physical toll the last game took. Best thing for us from a mental standpoint is MSU being #1. Hard to overlook and easy to get up to "upset" the #1 team at your home stadium
 
Nick Saban Alabama coached teams have yet to score a TD in the first quarter of games following LSU. Just found that interesting.
 
Bama going to truck Miss St.....Bulldogs rode the SEC hype machine to their #1 rank b/c everyone else lost. Won at LSU back when Tiger freshmen were still getting their feet wet....whipped a bad A&M team...luckboxed against Auburn when Tigers coughed it up 15 times. Should've lost to Arkansas...couldn't lost to UK. If Bama shows up without an LSU hangover they stomp.
 
I guess since the Ags are playing mostly freshmen and sophmores, they don't get their feet wet. They just suck for quitting on their QB1.

I'll be on Messy ML.
 
I watched Miss St at Kentucky and that frosh QB lit up the Bulldogs with his arm and his feet - over 500 yards in offense.

I am not a Sims fan but if he doesnt turn it over, I think Saban and Co win by DD's. Sims had a clean game in Death Valley last week so that is a good sign.
 
Interesting question during the presser.

Did you send in any tape or make any kind of complaint to the SEC office about holding on Myles Garrett?
“We send in every week what we think we have questions on, and things that may or may not have been missed. Our league does a great job. The head of officials, Steve Shaw, we have great relationship with and great communication with him. He gets right back to us and talks about the things we question, what should or shouldn’t have been called. I’ve coached in a lot of different leagues, and the officials in this league do as good a job as anyone in the country.
“We have a conversation every week. I think that’s important. From (the perspective of) our guys understanding the rules, our own players understanding what is going to be called and what’s not going to be called, and how to play the game. Like I said I think the communication with the league office is as good as it’s ever been. I’m comfortable with it going forward.”
 
Who is starting at quarterback on Saturday?
“Kyle Allen. The same person who started last Saturday.”


Is Kenny Hill available to play Saturday if you need him?
“Yeah.”

 
Updated lines with totals.

I already mentioned I liked Alabama, and the line move supports that. I haven't advocated a play on Alabama since the UF game, but I'm close to pulling the trigger here. From all accounts, the team is practicing well this week and Nick appears happy. Whether that means anything, we'll see. It is noteworthy that although Yeldon has been limited all week, the 3rd and 4th RBs (Tenpenny and Jones) have been in scout team jerseys all week, so it makes one think that the coaches expect Yeldon to play. At first glance, I liked the over 52, but Alabama's defense has been playing so well (despite Joey Galloway telling us how bad they are), I could see them holding MSU under 24 points. Can Alabama score 35+?

What are y'alls thoughts on UGA/AU? AU has been so up and down the last 4-5 seasons, hard to get a handle on how they bounce back from losses. The favorite in this series has covered 5 straight (according to Steele), Gurley is back, revenge for UGA, and they (UGA) seem to play better when the pressure is off. I lean UGA, but I almost never have an accurate read on AU. Certainly think there will be points scored

SC is unbettable to me. It's been long enough that the Spurrier v UF thing is of little importance IMO. Part of me thinks he is ready to hang it up and they will fade away the rest of the season, but will probably still beat Clemson. UF has new life, and if they can win this one and be competitive against FSU, Muschamp may buy himself another season. UF also alive in the East still. Lean UF, but that is a lot of points for them, even against SC's defense

I said it earlier, but I think UK and UT are two teams going in opposite directions. UK hasn't been impressive in a month, and something changed in UT when Dobbs came in against Alabama. UT or nothing for me

Like many, my initial thought on LSU was to take Arky, but I'm starting to backtrack there. Looking at past years, LSU has only lost once in the last 5 years the game after Alabama, including comfortable wins against division teams. I think this game will be much higher scoring than most believe

I am wary of thinking that aTm is completely turned around, but I think Mizzou is not very good. As long as Allen doesn't turn it over 2+ times, I think the Ags score too many times for Mizzou to keep up


One thought about last week's LSU/AL game. I'm tired of hearing how ugly and bad the game was. I don't understand how it would have been somehow more impressive for AL to have won 56-49. Guess defense doesn't count as much. Until the championship
 
gps_3 said:
One thought about last week's LSU/AL game. I'm tired of hearing how ugly and bad the game was. I don't understand how it would have been somehow more impressive for AL to have won 56-49. Guess defense doesn't count as much. Until the championship
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I thought it was a fantastic game,really really enjoyed it.Much better than the pac12 run up and down the field basketball.

Thanks for your thoughts each week GPS,appreciate it.
 
I think Messy St. is the complete team. Not conceding to the pressure of the moment , but breathing it in. We'll see.

Auburn is what we think they are, scoring offense, burnable defense. I took the over based on that. GA could definitely burn them, but I can't pick a side as I would lean to the west. Auburn couldn't get more pressure than ULM vs. Ags.

I take Arky at home by default. But it's possible LSU has lost their games for the season. Can't touch it. Under maybe. Arky +1 on a neutral? nope.

LSU/AL, classic every year. Must see TV.

Oh yeah, Mizzou isn't good. Ags receiver corps decided to catch last week. I don't see that changing.
As long as Kyle doesn't claim himself to be "Kyle Talon" the rcvrs will show up.
 
They have a pretty good front. I just think they are physical, much like Bama.
I have to go with the qb1 in a game like this.

Should be great game. Wish it was primetime since I work Saturday.
 
are people really saying the LSU/Bama game wasn't good? Wow

I guess I aint alone then....kj and fondy said I was one in a million for saying the Piss/LSU game was good too

then I see a guy like VK shout the game out...oh well, hate blinds these dudes to what good ball is
 
gps_3 said:
You not worried about Miss St pass defense?
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that would be the concern, and then of course the road which is beastly in the West

I think Messy is real and 7 seems a bit much.....But they will need to play complete, no mistakes
 
twinkie13 said:
are people really saying the LSU/Bama game wasn't good? Wow

I guess I aint alone then....kj and fondy said I was one in a million for saying the Piss/LSU game was good too

then I see a guy like VK shout the game out...oh well, hate blinds these dudes to what good ball is
Click to expand...

Just quit with it, I appreciate good defense and there's a reason that was the game I was watching. But it gets so FUCKING old hearing about how great the defense was when the LSU offense was incapable of completing a forward pass against a Sunbelt defense for a big part of that game. It wasn't JUST great defense, it was abysmal offense as well. You can't think it was jus "good ball". JFC, I enjoy good SEC games twink, but that sure as hell wasn't "can't miss tv"

And fwiw I rarely can tune into a Big12 game for more than a few plays a game.
 
I have probably watched more minutes of Alabama this year than any other team in the nation, I actually enjoy watching them for the most part.
 
I'm pretty sure people looked forward to catching FSU/Miami back when both were winning championships.
How the game plays out has nothing to do with making time for the game.

Some people look forward to SEC football and the elite matchup. Some people like to watch other folks swim.
 
Just some insight on in state teams (Alabama/AU)

Miss St/AL - I don't believe that anyone has benefited from scheduling more than Miss St. They are catching Bama a week removed off the most physcial game in all of NCAA F-ball. A LSU team before finding themselves. A&M off an emotional, draining overtime defeat of Ark. AU off the drubbing of LSU and feeling like kings of the world. Then get two of the SEC bottom feeders and a cupcake before this weekends match-up.

Many will view my post as just another SEC hater stating the obvious. Couldn't be further from the truth. I live in the heart of dixie and get more SEC coverage than most, watch it, and for the most part enjoy it. If given more time to prepare and heal, I would take BAMA by DD. With the current situation, more than a TD may be a dangerous wager.

I am not a believer in Miss St. I don't see them as the world beaters the media is perceiving them to be. I think Vegas has a better bead on them. The future outcome of this game, whatever it may be, will not surprise me one way or the other. I think I am going to tease BAMA with a partner. Depending on the partner will be 6 or 7 points.


Historically, T-town has been a difficult place to play for the Bulldogs. With only 70 miles seperating the schools, Bama may not enjoy the typical home field advantage they get on any other given Saturday. They will surely have the advantage of 75k fans screaming Yellow Hammer, but not the 105k they are accustomed to. I think Bulldog nation will show up and try to get as many scalped tickets they can find, since they are the #1 team in the nation. Should be a good game. Call it 28-24 Bama.

AU/UGA - Gus will have to motivate more than he has had to do at any point in his short collegiate career. He is coming off what may have been coming over the past two seasons. What usually works for him, turned the table to be his detriment. Now he has a fresh Gurley coming to town to run against one of the worst D's in the SEC. Coupled with a Pruit led Defense that has had success against AU not once, but twice ('13 FSU & '12 AL). He has also schemed a master plan against a Clemson offense that is similar in scheme to what AU runs. Will this translate to victory, IDK...But I like their chances.

UGA will not have to air it out to pull the outirght. But with the propensity to give up chunk yardage throught the air, will certainly be able to obtain balance. UGA still holds the Eastern Wildcard and needs this badly to keep pace. They cannot afford to have things out of their control work in their favor. AU has to hope and pray that things fall in line, or they will be left out of the conversation.

I think both teams will be able to score and will be taking a chance on the 1st half over. If held close, I like UGA's chances to win the game outright. I think this is where Pruitt will be able to draw from his experience in game planning against the Tigers. He has done it multiple times, why not now? UGA 41 - AU 34
 
for Auburn backers, remember that Duke Williams is "probably unlikely to play this weekend" per Malzahn. That's 27% of the catches and 30% of the yards thru the air this year.
 
Duke is the only consistent set of hands on AU. Coates is a physical beast, and Bray can hurt you too, but neither has been able to consistently make catches like Williams.

And if you think there will be 30K Miss St fans in BDS Saturday, I think you are mistaken
 
What do you think the ceiling for MSU fans will be? Not being a smart ass, just curious on your estimate. I know the season tickets are sold out in advance.
 
booksbestfriend said:
What do you think the ceiling for MSU fans will be? Not being a smart ass, just curious on your estimate. I know the season tickets are sold out in advance.
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Whatever the MSU allotment is, maybe 1000 more. Not like Alabama fans are staying home from this one. Of all the games I've been to, never seen more than 15K or so opposing fans.
 
Ole Miss and Florida St to play in Citrus Bowl opening weekend 2016
 
gps_3 said:
Whatever the MSU allotment is, maybe 1000 more. Not like Alabama fans are staying home from this one. Of all the games I've been to, never seen more than 15K or so opposing fans.
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Fair enough. Would have figured more. Been to 6 Bama games, none with this implication, and seemed to be a higher percentage of opposing fans. Thought the proximity would have Bulldog fans flocking to the game. Should be an entertaining game nonetheless.
 
gps_3 said:
Ole Miss and Florida St to play in Citrus Bowl opening weekend 2016
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Now all Ole Miss has to do is schedule Ohio State, Oregon and Oklahoma for the same season so that their OOC schedule meets the criteria of CTG
 
Ha

And sure as fuck don't play Presbyterian in November, or ever, and play at least one of those teams in their house
 
booksbestfriend said:
Fair enough. Would have figured more. Been to 6 Bama games, none with this implication, and seemed to be a higher percentage of opposing fans. Thought the proximity would have Bulldog fans flocking to the game. Should be an entertaining game nonetheless.
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It's also hard to gauge the opposing fans because they are split into \several sections. The section in the corner of the north endzone probably holds 5000 at most, and part of that is taken up by the band. That is the only concentrated area of opposing fans. Also for this game, it will be hard to distinguish looking at the stands since the colors are so similar
 
Alabama up to -10. Probably unbettable for me now, even though I think Alabama wins by 14+. Don't want to have to cheer for a cover. Probably take a look at the team totals when they are released to me. For those who are counting on the LSU hangover, a 1H or 1Q bet on the under or MSU probably looks attractive
 
Think I just heard on SEC Network that Alabama hasn't allowed a QB to run for 100 yards in the Saban era. I think Dak is going to have to beat us with his arm.
 
i think miss st passes the eyeball test and is being greatly disrespected in this game.
 
I have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but I think a lot of people have under estimated how good State's OL and front 7 are.
 
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