SEC Week 11

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Man it feels weird typing that "11." Always flies by. Week 11 games below:

UGA -7.5 @ Miss St
Ole Miss (NL) vs The Citadel
aTm -7 @ Mizzou
AU +7 @ Vandy
Florida -3 @ Kentucky
LSU +10.5 @ Alabama

First game for interim coaching staffs at AU and LSU. Both on the road. I don't know that there's any fixing what's wrong at AU, they just have bad QB play and the scheme is outdated and possibly too complex for Arnold and/or Daniels. Not sure the OL is up for the task either. We'll see what Pavia and that offense can do against a defense that has been great against the run but a little susceptible against the pass. I trust that the interim staff at LSU can get a little more out of the offense, but not sure it will be enough. DeBoer has been great out of the bye in his tenure so far, I'd guess it continues.

If UGA keeps messing around and allowing teams to stay close, it's going to bite them again, I think. I mean, full credit for finding ways to win. That says a lot about the competitive character of the team, and I think the offense is becoming really pretty good. Not sure State has the horses to win, but I think they can keep it close. Certainly looking at a MSU 1H bet

Could be an uncomfortable game for aTm. Mizzou has great pass rushers and a solid run offense. First full game without Pribula for Mizzou, but they did have the bye to get the backup ready. Based on the way this season has gone in the SEC, I'm definitely looking to take any underdog over a TD

Will have some more thoughts on Alabama/LSU later
 
Texas am tt un 27.5…no chance I see them scoring more than this. Not only will Mizzou d be anything better than Aggies have played other than Aub who held them to one td mizzou offense is fantastic at controlling top and limiting other teams amount of plays which is the opposite of Auburn crap offense who puts the d in bad spots. On top of that think it a terrible spot for Aggies playing 3rd straight on road. Like Mizzou with the points also, kinda think they win.
 
Grovehard said:
I would be interested in Auburn and Mizzou over a TD.
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You know who aub gonna play at qb? I’d probably consider them if I knew it was Arnold, that how bad Daniels looked to me 🤣


think I prefer the Vandy tt under, was hoping for 27 but 26.5 is still more than aub d has allowed all year and think they have played tougher offenses to stop than Vandy’s. Outside the 4th qrtr last week where I’m convinced Texas d kinda got complacent Vandy offense has trended down big time in sec play and it not really a accident, stop pavia from running all those counters and traps and you pretty much stop the offense. Really tough for me to buy Vandy is gonna hang the biggest number Aub has allowed all year.
 
It’s a freaking shame it looks like it gonna be nice in Columbia Saturday, damn cold front gonna be a day late from making it a total nightmare for AM. Not that weather has anything to do with Aggies under or Mizzou, just remembered it was supppsed to get cold here over weekend sometime but looks like not til Sunday.
 
12 straight games now vs p4 teams that Georgia is either tied or trailing at half. Unfortunately for me they only were tied at half vs UF.

Early kick in Stark Vegas. Line is +4.5 1h and +204 ml.
 
2daBank said:
You know who aub gonna play at qb? I’d probably consider them if I knew it was Arnold, that how bad Daniels looked to me 🤣


think I prefer the Vandy tt under, was hoping for 27 but 26.5 is still more than aub d has allowed all year and think they have played tougher offenses to stop than Vandy’s. Outside the 4th qrtr last week where I’m convinced Texas d kinda got complacent Vandy offense has trended down big time in sec play and it not really a accident, stop pavia from running all those counters and traps and you pretty much stop the offense. Really tough for me to buy Vandy is gonna hang the biggest number Aub has allowed all year.
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No idea. There are rumors that Deuce Knight may get a shot. I don't think he's ready for that but he probably can't be much worse than Arnold or Daniels. Vandy TT makes a lot of sense. I think Auburn goes conservative and hangs around.
 
heading to Title Town next week for the game against Boomer. Whats that line gonna be?
 
Marlo said:
heading to Title Town next week for the game against Boomer. Whats that line gonna be?
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I think I'll be there too. Right now, I'd guess Alabama just over a TD. OU was -5.5 @ SC and Alabama was -11.5, which is the easiest transitive property math to do. So -6 on a neutral, add HFA and you have Alabama -9ish
 
gps_3 said:
I think I'll be there too. Right now, I'd guess Alabama just over a TD. OU was -5.5 @ SC and Alabama was -11.5, which is the easiest transitive property math to do. So -6 on a neutral, add HFA and you have Alabama -9ish
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Interesting that current SP+ has OK at +0.7.
 
Timh said:
Interesting that current SP+ has OK at +0.7.
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I believe it. Based on pure numbers, even opponent adjusted, Alabama appears to be very average at pretty much everything. But the sum of the parts is far better than any of the individual components.

I don't think we'll be -9. There's only two common opponents so far, SC and Tenn. Both teams beat SC on the road, OU much more emphatically. OU was +2.5 or so at Tenn, while Alabama was -8.5 at home vs the Vols. So accounting for HFA, we can assume Alabama would have been around a FG favorite had the game been in Knoxville. I don't know if OU's line @ SC was factoring in a hurt Mateer, who I have to assume will be pretty healthy next week. If I was to guess at the line, I'd say Alabama -5.5, which seems pretty fair to me. Could even make it -4.5 based on OU having a bye week to prepare. Thankfully I don't think they'll install a completely new offense like they did last year, nor do I think Ty Simpson will go full Milroe and give them 14 points on his own
 
LSU has nothing to play for not even sure why we dont just forfeit. Bama by 20.
👀. OL hard to overcome but an actual game wouldnt surprise me a bit.
The elephant 🐘 has left the room.
Game on!
 
Crazy note on TNR today that Alabama has (will) play(ed) 5 games this season against teams coming off a bye.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Crazy note on TNR today that Alabama has (will) play(ed) 5 games this season against teams coming off a bye.
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This bye is not new. This is the old model, Bama/LSU have been off a bye for years

At least LA side but I thought it’s been like that mostly

The new schedule will even it out
 
Frank Costanza said:
Crazy note on TNR today that Alabama has (will) play(ed) 5 games this season against teams coming off a bye.
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A few years ago, 7 of the 8 conference games we played were against teams off a bye. They changed the rule after that, but I'm guessing this year it's ok because on 2 of those, we also had a bye. And technically AU won't be off a bye, but they have a bye next week, then Mercer before they play us. Just one of those things
 
twinkie13 said:
UGA is gonna be in for it.
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They’ve been living dangerously all year and now they go to State in a sleepy spot against a team which has finally seen their effort be rewarded with a W. I don’t know that I will be on State but I don’t think I can lay it.
 
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Grovehard said:
They’ve been living dangerously all year and now they go to State in a sleepy spot against a team which has finally seen its effort be rewarded with a W. I don’t know that I will be on State but I don’t think I can lay it.
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I’m sure everyone aware at this point but I see no reasons to lay the number pregame with Uga, can’t recall the last time couldn’t get a better number live or at half. Kirby seems way better after he has seen a half, see no reason not to play messy st 1st half, seems like a really good spot for any team to be a little flat early and that kinda Uga calling card lately.
 
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